Podcast Summary
New checks add costs and complexity for importers from EU: New border checks for EU goods add costs and complexity for importers, potentially leading to higher prices or reduced availability for consumers, while the UK's low growth rate and Brexit's impact go largely unaddressed by politicians.
This week, new checks were introduced at the British border for goods coming in from the EU, adding costs and complexity for importers and potentially leading to higher prices or reduced availability for consumers. Meanwhile, the UK is projected to have the lowest growth rate among the G7 economies, and the question of how much of that is due to Brexit goes largely unaddressed by politicians. The new checks, while not causing physical disruptions yet, could have significant long-term impacts on businesses and individuals. Peter Foster, a Financial Times journalist, explains that the checks started in January with the requirement of export health certificates, but the physical checks at the border began on April 30th. These checks require all people moving plant and animal products to register the goods in a system called iPAFS. While few goods will be physically checked, the process adds costs and complexity for importers. The lack of attention from politicians to these issues, despite their potential significant impact on the economy and small businesses, is a concern.
Brexit Charges Impacting Small Businesses: Small businesses importing from EU face new costs, potentially passed on to consumers or leading to business closures, while govt focuses on preventing border queues, and public may not fully understand or prioritize issue
Small businesses importing goods from the EU are facing significant new charges and paperwork requirements following Brexit. These costs, which can add up to thousands of pounds per month for some businesses, may be passed on to consumers or lead to businesses closing due to the financial strain. The government aims to prevent border queues, but the impact on smaller businesses, who lack a collective voice and the resources of larger corporations, may go unnoticed by the public. The consumer may not easily distinguish the Brexit-related costs from general inflation, making it challenging to assign blame or understand the full extent of the issue. Despite the potential impact on consumers and businesses, Brexit-related concerns rank lower in voter priorities than other issues such as food costs and access to healthcare services.
Brexit's Impact on Tomatoes and Political Complexities: Political considerations and red lines hinder significant changes in Brexit negotiations, making readmission to the EU and its markets challenging. Labour's approach may differ but economic and political implications could pose obstacles.
The political situation in the UK regarding Brexit and its impact on issues like the price of tomatoes in supermarkets is complex and multifaceted. The main parties, Labour and Conservatives, are cautious about making significant changes due to political considerations and red lines. The EU may not be eager to welcome the UK back with open arms, making negotiations potentially challenging. Labour, if it comes to power, may adopt a more partnership-focused approach with the EU, but significant changes like rejoining the customs union or single market could be difficult due to the implications for existing trade deals and potential economic and political backlash. The EU may have conditions for readmission, such as rejoining Schengen and the single currency. Overall, the situation is complex, and any changes would require careful consideration and negotiation.
UK-EU relationship: Slow progress expected: Despite some improvements, the UK's relationship with the EU will remain strained due to fundamental differences on issues like free movement and trade. The Labor government aims to stabilize the economy and regain investor confidence through a 10-year plan.
The UK's relationship with the EU is not expected to drastically change in the near future, despite some efforts from the new Labor government to improve it. Brexit created significant political uncertainty that negatively impacted the UK's reputation as a stable business environment, and it will take time for the government to regain investor confidence. While there may be some improvements in relations, such as increased diplomatic engagement and reduced border checks, the fundamental differences between the UK and EU on issues like free movement and trade will remain. The Labor government's focus will be on implementing a stable 10-year plan to address these challenges and restore investor confidence. The OECD's prediction of a worse performing UK economy in the G7 next year is attributed to the political uncertainty and distraction caused by Brexit, rather than the economic impact of leaving the EU itself.
May's lack of clear goals and strategy led to political chaos: Theresa May's failure to define her Brexit objectives and create a well-planned strategy resulted in a politically chaotic situation, hindered by her conflicting economic and immigration policies and lack of unity within her cabinet.
Learning from the discussion with Tim Shipman, the Sunday Times chief political columnist, is that Theresa May's failure to clearly define her goals and lack of a well-planned strategy for Brexit led to her inability to gain support from key players and ultimately resulted in a politically chaotic situation. May's attempts to navigate a middle ground economically while taking a hard line on immigration and staying outside political institutions proved unsatisfactory to various factions. Additionally, her decision to bring in Brexiteers like Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, and Liam Fox into her government but then cutting them out of the decision-making process hindered any potential compromise and unity within her cabinet. These missteps made it even more challenging for May to effectively advocate for her Brexit plan and gain the necessary support. Despite Boris Johnson's personal desire for the position, the political circumstances and May's handling of the situation played a significant role in his eventual ascension to the role.
Brexit's Impact on British Politics and Conservative Leadership: Brexit's aftermath caused deep divisions within the Conservative Party, shaping leadership selection and policy issues, including immigration.
Brexit has had a profound impact on British politics, shaping the leadership of the Conservative Party from 2016 to the present. The divisions and trauma caused by the Brexit process have revealed and entrenched deep divisions within the party, influencing the selection of leaders such as Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. While not every issue is directly related to Brexit, the context of these leaders' elections and policies is shaped by the Brexit-induced turmoil. For instance, Sunak's current struggle with immigration policy is a result of Boris Johnson's Brexit deal, which ended freedom of movement with the EU and opened the door to increased immigration from other parts of the world. Despite this irony, Johnson remains popular among those who are most enraged by the immigration policy he helped create. The instability caused by Brexit has made it difficult for any prime minister since David Cameron to claim they have "nailed it" in dealing with its aftermath.
Effective Politics: Johnson and Cummings' Time Together: During the 2019 UK election campaign, Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings effectively worked together to deliver the 'get Brexit done' slogan, but Brexit is far from over and any future government changes to the UK's EU relationship will require new negotiations and deals.
The period of political competence in the UK during the 2019 election campaign, when Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings worked together to deliver the slogan "get Brexit done," stands out as the one moment when the government functioned effectively, despite the questionable tactics used. However, Brexit is far from being "done," and any future government, including Rishi Sunak's, is unlikely to make it a central campaign issue. Instead, any significant changes to the UK's relationship with the EU would likely require new negotiations and deals, which could be politically contentious. Quietly, civil servants have been working on ironing out issues with the existing trade and customs agreement, but any major concessions, such as mobility deals, could be used as political weapons by a savvy Conservative Party operation.
Both major UK political parties sidestepping Brexit issue ahead of 2024 election: Despite Brexit's significant impact, major parties avoid discussing it, leaving unresolved issues unaddressed and compromises seemingly impossible.
The Brexit issue is being deliberately sidestepped by both major political parties in the UK leading up to the 2024 general election. The consensus seems to be to avoid discussing Brexit altogether, despite many unresolved issues. This silence is extraordinary given the significant impact of Brexit on the country. The Labour Party, in particular, appears to lack a clear stance on the issue beyond vague promises of specific regulations and deals. The personal dynamics of politics, with people aligning themselves with teams and gangs, make it challenging to separate ideological and principled reasons from personal motivations. The toxic political environment surrounding Brexit has left many feeling that compromise is impossible. The question of what constitutes a good outcome for Brexit, given the extremes of the debate, remains unanswered. Ultimately, the role of parliament as a mediator in resolving differences and finding answers to complex issues is being overshadowed by the silence on Brexit.
SNP undergoes leadership transition with Swinney taking the helm: SNP experiences leadership change with Swinney's return, potentially signaling continuation of past policies amidst debates on Scotland's independence
The Scottish National Party (SNP) is undergoing a leadership transition with John Swinney, a long-term party member and former leader, running unopposed. This comes after the resignation of First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's deputy, Humza Yousaf. Kate Forbes, the former finance minister, has announced she will join Swinney's administration instead of challenging for the leadership. Swinney's leadership marks a return to the SNP's previous administration, raising questions about whether the party will indeed change course or continue with its past policies. This transition comes amidst ongoing debates about Scotland's independence and the direction of the party. Despite Swinney's past association with some controversial issues, his leadership could signal a continuation of the SNP's existing agenda.
SNP shifts focus to pragmatism amid challenges: The SNP is prioritizing practical governance over ideology to prepare for an election and preserve Scotland's independence
The Scottish National Party (SNP) is currently prioritizing pragmatism over ideology in response to economic challenges and political instability. Following a period of infighting, First Minister Kate Forbes and Deputy First Minister John Swinney have shown signs of unity, focusing on the common goal of preparing for an upcoming general election and preserving Scotland's independence. The party, once known for its strong commitment to independence and nationalism, is now adopting a more practical approach to governance. The News Agents also discussed the latest episode of their other podcast, Sports Agents, featuring an exclusive interview with boxing promoter Frank Warren. Despite the dangerous aspects of boxing, Warren emphasized that it's not an inherently dark side of the sport but rather the actions of individual lunatics. Listen to the Sports Agents podcast for more insights on this topic.
