The Price and Peril of a Low-Rate Regime with Edward Chancellor

A storm may be brewing off the coast. It is not a new concern for investors, but its intensity has grown. The US federal government owes more than $34 trillion—and counting. This level of debt has the potential to wreak havoc, even for the world’s largest economy. Government debt has grown in other parts of the globe as well, and debt held by consumers and businesses can also pose economic risks. With a tsunami of debt lurking in the distance, investors must take stock of the potential ramifications if it ever crashes onto the shore.

This episode of The Outthinking Investor addresses the economic challenges associated with an increasing debt burden, the impact on inflation, interest rates and financial markets, and fiscal policy prescriptions that could help bring the debt under control. Randal Quarles, former Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve; Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; and Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist for PGIM Fixed Income, join the podcast to give a unique perspective on the intersection of debt, fiscal policy and financial markets.

Industrial policy is making a comeback in the West. The US, Europe and other governments have introduced new incentives to the private sector in hopes of bringing supply chains closer to home, boosting domestic industries, and building strategic advantages in key technologies such as semiconductors and EVs. But success is not guaranteed. Can governments pick winners and losers? Do the potential benefits of industrial spending, such as driving innovation and economic growth, outweigh the consequences of higher debt and interest rates?

This episode of The OUTThinking Investor gathered insights from three experts on economics and fiscal policy to help investors assess how industrial strategies will affect financial markets and the global economy. Our guests are Paul Romer, economics professor at Boston College and former Chief Economist at the World Bank; Simon Johnson, professor at MIT Sloan School of Management and co-author of Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity; and Katharine Neiss, Deputy Head of Global Economics and Chief European Economist at PGIM Fixed Income.

In this environment of uncertainty, it's more important than ever for investors to think outside the box. Welcome to The Outthinking Investor, an award-winning podcast from PGIM that examines past events, present-day opportunities, and future possibilities across global capital markets. In Season 4, hosted by Toby Ricketts, experts from PGIM and the investment world bring unique perspectives as we explore a fast-changing landscape of investment opportunities and risks. Join us as we take a deep dive into the portfolio implications of a changing world.

The invention of the spinning jenny in 1764 upended the textile industry—and the women who earned a living weaving cotton and preparing fabrics in their homes. Suddenly, these jobs became obsolete. Just as the industrial revolution had a profound impact on how people worked and lived, structural forces are transforming global labor markets today, from slowing globalization to the advent of generative AI. The evolution of labor markets is poised to reshape the macro landscape in the years to come, posing broad implications across the investment portfolio.

In this episode of PGIM’s The OUTThinking Investor, we talk to three experts about the transformation of labor markets, the economic impact, and how investors can identify leaders and laggards as the world embarks on a new era of work. Our guests are Greg Wright, an associate professor of economics at the University of California at Merced and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution; Zeynep Ton, a professor at MIT Sloan and author of the book The Case for Good Jobs: How Great Companies Bring Dignity, Pay and Meaning to Everyone’s Work; and Jakob Wilhelmus, Director of Thematic Research at PGIM.

For more on this topic, visit PGIM.com to explore our Megatrends report, The Transformation of Labor Markets: Winners and Losers in a New Era.

In one of Rembrandt’s famous paintings, Storm on the Sea of Galilee, a ship’s crew struggles to navigate through an epic storm thrashing the ship. But toward the stern, Jesus sits calmly. This image graced the cover of Peter Bernstein’s classic book, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. So what can investors take away from a classic piece of Renaissance art? Market shocks can emerge suddenly and in unexpected ways. Mitigating the impact of these risks is no doubt challenging when they are difficult to predict. Still, investors need a gameplan.

This episode of PGIM’s The OUTThinking Investor delivers fresh perspectives on potential risks to financial markets and explores strategies that agile investors can employ to protect their portfolios against the known and unknown. Joining us to discuss this topic are Scott Patterson, Wall Street Journal reporter and author of Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions in the New Age of Crisis; Ethan Wu, Financial Times reporter and host of the Unhedged podcast; and Michael Dicks, Chief Economist and Deputy Head of Research at PGIM Wadhwani.

Fans of the long-running game show Jeopardy will remember that one famous contestant stood out from the rest. IBM’s supercomputer, named Watson, beat two human opponents in a 2011 competition that brought artificial intelligence into the spotlight. More than a decade later, AI has taken a giant leap forward. Generative AI, made popular by the launch of ChatGPT, has already made its impact felt on the investment world, and it appears poised to shake up the modern economy as businesses find new ways of utilizing the technology. The next generation of AI presents new possibilities for the way people live, work and invest.

This episode of PGIM’s The OUTThinking Investor explores a future reimagined by generative AI, from its business applications and social impact to the investment opportunities and risks across sectors. Guests David Ferrucci, the former project lead for Watson and founder of Elemental Cognition; Gillian Tett, US editor-at-large for the Financial Times; and Erika Klauer, portfolio manager of the technology fund at Jennison Associates, bring their unique perspectives to the topic of AI and how investors can prepare for what is to come.

Ever since the oil crisis of the 1970s and the creation of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the United States has held millions of barrels of oil in a stockpile to safeguard the country—and its economy—from future supply shocks. Just as oil has kept the world’s economic engine running, a new critical component has emerged: the microchip. Everything from satellites and missiles to cars and toasters are powered by chips, making the semiconductor industry a linchpin of both the global economy and national security. The recent chip shortage affected virtually every industry, revealing a new vulnerability that businesses and policymakers are scrambling to address.

Chris Miller, associate professor at Tufts University and author of Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology, and Dennis Lockhart, former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, join this episode of The OUTThinking Investor to examine the global competition to fortify supplies of semiconductors. They discuss the role of geopolitics in chip production, how artificial intelligence is driving innovation and demand, and macroeconomic implications for investors to consider.

For more on the near-shoring of strategic industries, visit PGIM’s OUTFront report, A New Era: From Deglobalization to Regionalization.

From growing rice on Mars to developing new farming techniques here on Earth, the future of food is rapidly evolving. The global food system—spanning farms, factories, grocery stores and more—is a complex network that has far-reaching economic implications. It is also inefficient and increasingly unfit for purpose, encouraging innovation across the value chain that will give rise to attractive investment opportunities.

In the newest episode of PGIM’s The OUTThinking Investor, we take a deep dive into the world of food and its portfolio implications—whether seeking opportunities or mitigating hidden risks. Three experts provide unique perspectives on technological efforts to make food production more sustainable and efficient, the impact of inflation and recent shocks to the food system, China’s role in the supply chain, and how a growing population is driving demand. Joining us are agricultural and development economist Chris Barrett from Cornell University, Council on Foreign Relations fellow Zoe Zongyuan Liu, and PGIM Head of Thematic Research Shehriyar Antia.

For more on this topic, explore PGIM’s Megatrends research, Food for Thought, at www.pgim.com/food.

Watch the video version of this episode by visiting www.pgim.com/david-rubenstein.

Private markets represent a fast-growing asset class with unique opportunities for investors. The growth of private equity in particular has transformed the investment landscape over the last several decades. Private equity assets more than doubled over the course of a decade to reach $11.5 trillion by 2021.

David Rubenstein, co-founder of The Carlyle Group, has played a prominent role in the evolution of private equity. His work beyond Carlyle is just as monumental—from advocating for broader investor and civic education to preserving historical treasures and landmarks. In this episode, Rubenstein joins David Hunt, PGIM’s President and CEO, for a wide-ranging conversation about private equity and alternative investing, inflation and the probability of a recession, the future of globalization, and philanthropy. They also discuss traits that great investors share, including a propensity to go against conventional wisdom.

This is the final installment of a two-part episode in which we further examine what sparked the latest bank crisis and whether it was a canary in the coal mine. Robert Armstrong, US financial commentator and writer of Unhedged for the Financial Times, and John Cochrane, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, join us to discuss the implications of banking fragilities, keeping a long-term investment horizon amid market volatility, and how swelling government debts could set the stage for new market risks.

For more on this topic, visit our bank crisis hub to explore views from across PGIM.