The Saudi purge and Aramco: how the kingdom's oil policy may play out

Once a global powerhouse of crude production, the UK’s North Sea region saw its oil output decline accelerate to 12% in 2023, according to official data from the UK’s Department of Energy Security and Net Zero. The new figures come as the UAE’s Taqa revealed to S&P Global Commodity Insights that it plans to cease production at the Cormorant oil fields in 2024, a key component of Brent grade.

In this episode of the Platts Oil Markets podcast: Joel Hanley is joined by Nick Coleman, Senior Editor for Oil News, and Sam Angell, Senior Editor covering the North Sea crude market, to discuss the outlook for North Sea oil production and the latest developments surrounding the global oil benchmark Platts Dated Brent.

Content mentioned in the podcast:
Infographic: Dated Brent February update 
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Asian oil flows could witness drastic changes for the remainder of the decade amid growing belief that India will cater to the biggest share of incremental growth in demand in the region. The International Energy Agency has recently said that India's role in global oil markets will likely expand substantially, fueled by strong growth in its economy, population, and demographics, making the country the largest source of demand growth from now until 2030. And in the same period, oil demand growth in developed economies and China will initially slow down and then subsequently go into reverse. In a wide-ranging discussion with Asia Energy Editor Sambit Mohanty, S&P Global Commodity Insights senior market experts Kang Wu, global head of oil demand research, Pulkit Agarwal, head of India content, and Alice Niu, Head of China content, share their views on the potential drivers for the shift in demand that could redraw the oil map for Asia.

Latin American crude production is on the rise, with countries like Brazil, Guyana and Argentina leading the way. However, Latin American heavy sour crude output is expected to decline, and flows will be reshuffled as Canada’s Trans Mountain crude pipeline expansion starts up and as operations begin at Pemex’s Olmeca refinery. Why is heavy sour crude output declining, and what does the output decline and reshuffling of barrels mean for crude prices? 

SPGCI's Americas oil news director Jeff Mower discusses these questions and more with oil research analysts Stephanie Rivera and Nick Blanco and crude pricing director Beth Brown.

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Related content:
Latin America Short-Term Outlook – Crude Oil (report)
Liza FOB Guyana (price)
Oriente FOB Esmeraldas (price)
Western Canadian Select at Hardisty (price)

As the European ultra-low sulfur diesel complex rallies on concerns around Eastern resupply unable to pass through the Red Sea, gasoil – its high-sulfur counterpart – is under unusual pressure.
In this episode of the Platts Oil Markets podcast, editors Natasha Tan and Nadia Bliznikova discuss recent trends with Francesco Di Salvo.

Further reading:
Med ULSD-gasoil spread at 14-month high on tight diesel, weak gasoil (subscribers)

Related price assessments:
AAVJJ00 - Gasoil .1%S (1000ppm) CIF Med Cargo (NextGen MOC)
AAUQC00 - Gasoil .005%S (50ppm) FOB ARA Barge (NextGen MOC)
AAWYZ00 - ULSD 10ppmS CIF Med Cargo

Following a 1 million b/d growth in US oil output in 2023, oil producers and service companies have been warning of slowing growth this year during their fourth quarter earnings calls. Will production surprise to the upside? And what would that mean for US refiners?
In this episode of the Platts Oil Markets podcast, senior upstream editor Starr Spencer, senior refinery editor Janet McGurty and midstream editor Binish Azhar discuss these questions and more with host Jeff Mower, Americas Oil News Director.

Further reading:
ExxonMobil, Chevron tweak Permian operations while nearing 1 million boe/d output
Volatile prices, slower growth seen tamping down Helmerich & Payne's 2024 rig count
Valero sees wider coastal heavy crude differentials on heavy Q1 turnaround season

In the face of continued security issues in the Red Sea stemming from Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, European trade patterns for oil products across the barrel are changing. S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Robert Perkins, Nadia Bliznikova and Takis Gounaris join Joel Hanley to discuss the impacts the Red Sea disruption are having on the European supply-demand balance for key oil products

Asia so far, has not witnessed any dramatic changes to near-term oil supplies amid the ongoing Red Sea crisis, but refiners are chalking out alternative plans to ensure steady feedstock flows in the event of an escalation -- a move that could inflate insurance costs and crimp refining margins.

There has been a strategic push among Asia's top importers to massively diversify their import baskets over the years, as well as expand strategic storage capacities. The market is trying to find answers on whether these developments can come in handy to ensure smooth and uninterrupted supplies of feedstocks. Or are there enough reasons for Asian oil buyers to worry about supplies?

In a wide-ranging discussion with Asia Energy Editor Sambit Mohanty, S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Rahul Kapoor, Vice President for Shipping Research and Analytics, and Sameer Mohindru, Senior Editor for Asian Freight Markets, share their views on how some of the recent geopolitical developments could potentially affect Asian oil flows, tanker freight and shipping costs.

With OPEC suggesting in its monthly oil market report that global oil demand growth will outweigh an expected increase in non-OPEC supply across 2024 and 2025, market watchers will be keen to see how the group and its allies respond to still slumping oil prices.

In this episode, S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Jim Burkhard, Rosemary Griffin and Charlie Mitchell join Herman Wang to discuss the key points of the group’s latest report, OPEC supply from a wider geopolitical and economic outlook, as well updates on Libyan output and Angola’s decision to leave OPEC at the end of 2023. 

London Energy Forum 2024

For the first Oil Markets episode of 2024, S&P Global Commodity Insights' oil experts team up across pricing, news and research to provide a fresh look at the crudes everyone is talking about — the new grades from Guyana’s Stabroek Block.

Jeff Mower speaks with Ha Nguyen, Felipe Perez and Pat Harrington about how Liza, Unity Gold and Payara Gold are helping drive global production growth outside of OPEC. They discuss production forecasts, how action from Venezuela could affect growing exports, and where Guyana’s crude is going. How are emerging refiner preferences affecting the price of the new Guyanese grades? And with turmoil in the Red Sea disrupting trade flows and boosting the price for some crudes in the Atlantic Basin, what is in store for Guyanan oil?

Links:

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In the final episode of the Oil Markets podcast for 2023, S&P Global Commodity Insights crude and refined products directors Joel Hanley and Richard Swann round up the biggest events and trends of the year. 

They provide an across-the-barrel retrospective of the year in oil markets, including shifting trade flows, developing markets for Russian oil, the emergence of Guyana as a crude powerhouse and a landmark year for established benchmarks Dated Brent and Dubai.

Related prices:
ULSD DAP South Brazil (All-Origin) AULDA00
Payara Gold FOB Guyana AYARA00
Dated Brent PCAAS00
Dubai Mo1 PCAAT00

Further reading: 
Guyana calls for UN sanctions on Venezuela over disputed territory
Midland's successful inclusion into Platts Dated Brent