TPP342: What will happen if the market crashes?

The mortgage market is currently very competitive, with lenders offering record-low rates to attract borrowers. This is great news for those looking to buy or invest in property, as it makes financing more affordable. However, it also indicates that the property market is strong and likely to remain so, which may make some investors nervous about buying at the top of the market. Despite these concerns, data and historical trends suggest that buying at the top is not necessarily a bad move, and that the long-term benefits of property investment can outweigh any short-term risks. It's important for investors to stay informed and make informed decisions based on reliable data and expert advice. In this week's episode of The Property Podcast, Robby and his team will delve deeper into the current state of the property market and provide insights and strategies for navigating it successfully. They will also share resources for those feeling overwhelmed or anxious about investing. Stay tuned for a must-listen episode next week.

The property market is experiencing rapid growth, leading to concerns about whether we're at the peak. However, the Property Hub believes there are a few years left in the current 18-year property cycle. If you're uncertain about the market and believe we might be near the top, it's essential to understand what buying at the peak looks like. Signs of a market at the peak include fear and greed playing out, with some people getting caught up in hysteria and paying over asking price for properties without even viewing them. Agents may also start to use sealed bids to their advantage. It's crucial to be aware of these signs but remember that there's no definitive signal that we've reached the top yet. So, stay informed and make informed decisions based on reliable data and market analysis.

During the later stages of a property market cycle, also known as the winner's curse, properties can sell for significantly over asking price due to sealed bids and fear of missing out. This can lead to potential investors making hasty, overpriced decisions. If you believe the market is approaching a peak, it's crucial to exercise caution when buying new properties. Instead, consider refinancing and releasing equity from existing properties. With competitive interest rates and plentiful credit during a boom, this strategy allows you to sit on cash and buy after a market crash, potentially securing great deals. However, timing is crucial, and the success of this strategy depends on accurately predicting market cycles.

While property prices can be volatile in the short term, historically they have always recovered over the long term. Therefore, some investors may choose to refinance and take out equity from their properties while they can, even if property prices are falling, in order to make the most of the opportunities on the other side. However, this approach comes with risks, as there is a chance that property prices could continue to fall, and the investor could end up owing more on their mortgage than their property is worth. On the other hand, some investors may choose to "go with the flow" and wait it out, accepting that their equity may be wiped out on paper but believing that it will eventually recover. It's important to note that rents are less volatile than property prices and tend to closely follow inflation. Additionally, yields can provide some financial stability during market downturns. Ultimately, understanding the property cycle and having a long-term perspective can help investors remain calm and make informed decisions during market fluctuations.

Even experienced investors may feel emotions during market cycles, but it's crucial to keep discipline and review your portfolio. The property market may attract attention similar to bitcoin, leading to bidding wars and overpaying for properties. However, this chaos can also present opportunities to sell underperforming assets at a premium price and prepare for the next market downturn by reducing loan-to-value and accumulating cash. Looking at the 2008 crisis, investors who made the right picks could still come out alright, and even those who didn't can learn from the experience. For instance, an investment made in October 2006, just before the London market peaked, could have resulted in a loss on paper, but the area's Land Registry figures show its potential value. Overall, maintaining discipline and seizing opportunities during market frenzies can lead to successful long-term investment strategies.

Even during market crashes, property investments can still yield positive returns in the long term, as shown by Rob's experience in London. However, the same may not hold true for all areas, as evidenced by the investment made in the Wirral where prices remained stagnant for over a decade. The average UK property, if bought at the worst possible time during the 2008 financial crisis, would have seen a 15% decrease in value initially but would have recovered and been worth 21% more after 10 years. Long-term investors should keep in mind that property markets can experience significant fluctuations, but patience and a well-timed entry can lead to substantial gains.

Timing the market perfectly in real estate investments is challenging and often unpredictable. Rob's investment in an area that experienced a prolonged downturn serves as a reminder of the potential downsides of buying at the wrong time. However, Rob's experience also highlights the importance of considering the specific circumstances of a given market, such as the impact of interest rates on mortgage payments. Another key takeaway is the significance of location in real estate investing. Areas with strong economic fundamentals tend to recover more quickly from market downturns. Lastly, the "winner's curse" was identified as a crucial concept to consider. This refers to the phenomenon where investors who buy near the market peak may still experience significant growth in the years leading up to the peak, only to see minimal or negative returns once the market crashes. These lessons underscore the importance of thorough research, patience, and a long-term perspective in real estate investing.

Even though it might be difficult to invest at the peak of the market and endure potential dips, the long-term benefits of property investment can outweigh the initial challenges. The UK property market historically recovers from downturns, and during those tougher years, you'll still receive rental income. By focusing on buying in good areas and holding onto properties for the long term, you're likely to see significant returns. Another key lesson is that timing the market perfectly is not essential. Past patterns don't necessarily guarantee future results, but understanding historical trends can provide valuable insights. Lastly, for those feeling stressed about the property market, consider watching the TV show "Ted Lasso" for a lighthearted and entertaining distraction.

Staying informed about the property market is crucial. Rob and Rob encourage listeners to keep up-to-date with the latest happenings in the market by tuning in to their upcoming episode and engaging with their Ask Rob and Rob segment or YouTube channel, Property Hub UK. By doing so, you'll be well-positioned to make informed decisions and capitalize on opportunities in the property market. Don't miss out on valuable insights and knowledge that can help you succeed. Tune in regularly and stay informed.