Podcast Summary
UK house building targets: The UK government has mandated councils to build 370,000 new homes annually, but it's uncertain if this target will lead to a decrease in house prices or even be met, as London's target has been reduced, and success depends on private builder cooperation and council development facilitation.
The UK government has made house building targets mandatory for councils, aiming for 370,000 new homes each year. This is a significant increase from previous years and could potentially impact the property market. However, it remains uncertain whether this ambitious target will be met, and even if it is, it may not lead to a noticeable decrease in house prices due to the concentration of targets outside cities. London, for instance, has seen its target reduced. The success of this initiative will depend on the cooperation of private builders and the ability of councils to facilitate development. Keep tuned for updates on this developing story and other property-related news.
Property Cycle: The 18-year property cycle's current status is causing uncertainty among investors due to delayed rent reform news and the predictable sequence of boom and bust.
The 18-year property cycle, which is believed to govern property price fluctuations, continues to be a topic of uncertainty. Rent reform news has been delayed until October, adding to the uncertainty. The property cycle, which includes a predictable sequence of boom and bust, has generated more questions than answers for investors. Despite its promise of predictability, the cycle's current status is causing doubts. In less than a minute, the 18-year property cycle refers to the idea that property prices experience regular booms and crashes, with an entire cycle lasting 18 years. The cycle consists of four years of falling prices, seven years of mild price rises, a mid-cycle wobble, and a final aggressive seven-year period of rapid price growth. Currently, investors are uncertain about where they stand in this cycle and whether recent events will impact it. Stay tuned for a full episode dedicated to discussing the property cycle and the doubts surrounding it.
Real Estate Cycle: The real estate market follows an 18-year cycle of growth and correction, but the reliability of this cycle is being questioned due to potential market shifts and external factors.
The real estate market follows an 18-year cycle of growth and correction, with each cycle starting from a higher point than the previous one. This cycle, popularized by economist Fred Harrison, has held true for many years, providing a sense of calm during market fluctuations. However, despite Harrison's prediction of a 20% price rise followed by a crash in 2026, some question the reliability of the 18-year cycle due to potential accelerated market changes. I, for one, have doubts about the cycle's consistency due to the possibility of increasingly rapid market shifts and the potential for external factors to significantly impact the cycle. Regardless, the 18-year property cycle remains an intriguing concept that offers valuable insights into real estate market trends.
Real Estate Boom: Despite recent growth, current property market does not align with historical markers of a real estate boom due to moderate growth rates and real value decrease over last 5 years, as well as pandemic uncertainty
Despite some recent growth in property prices, we are not currently experiencing a real estate boom. The last boom occurred around the turn of the century, with annual growth rates exceeding 10% for several consecutive years. Since then, property prices have not seen such aggressive growth. Additionally, when considering inflation, property values have actually decreased in real terms over the last five years. While there have been some solid years of growth, none have approached the levels seen during the last boom. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has introduced significant uncertainty into the market, making it even more difficult to predict a boom. Overall, the current state of the property market does not align with the historical markers of a real estate boom.
Real Estate Cycle Intervention: Historical real estate cycles may not follow the 18-year pattern due to increased economic intervention, leading to potential market instability
The 18-year real estate cycle, which includes phases of growth and decline, may not be playing out as expected due to increased economic intervention. Historical data suggests that a boom is necessary for a bust, but the current economic landscape, with its high financialization and frequent interventions, may be preventing the natural cycle from unfolding. While some argue that the 18-year cycle is an average and not an exact science, others suggest that the current level of intervention could be a major factor in why the cycle is not occurring as predicted. Ultimately, while the concept of real estate being cyclical remains valuable, the specific 18-year timeframe may need to be reconsidered or expanded to account for these new economic realities.
18-year property cycle disruption: The 18-year property cycle, a long-held belief in real estate markets, is being questioned due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and may no longer be a reliable indicator of market trends.
The 18-year property cycle, a long-held belief in real estate markets, is being questioned due to the unexpected disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The speakers in the discussion agree that the cycle, which typically includes a seven-year run-up followed by a seven-year downturn, has been derailed and may not return to its original form. Some believe that the cycle could still be in effect, but with a delayed timeline, while others argue that it has been broken entirely. The speakers also share their personal perspectives on the significance of the 18-year property cycle and how its disruption might impact their investment strategies. Ultimately, the consensus seems to be that the cycle, as we know it, may no longer be a reliable indicator of real estate market trends.
18-year property cycle theory: The speaker, a proponent of the 18-year property cycle theory, is now questioning its relevance and may shift to making investment decisions based on current market conditions
The speaker, who has been a strong advocate of the 18-year property cycle theory, is now questioning its relevance and considering stepping away from it. The speaker believes that the cycle may not exist this time around and plans to make investment decisions based on current market conditions instead. The speaker acknowledges that this is a significant shift in perspective and feels emotional about it, but is open to revisiting the theory in the future. The speaker invites listeners to share their thoughts on the matter through a poll on Property Hub UK's social media channels.
Amazon price tracking: Camelcamelcamel.com is a useful website for tracking Amazon item prices and setting alerts for price drops, allowing consumers to save money on regularly purchased items
There's a useful website called camelcamelcamel.com that can help consumers save money on regularly purchased items from Amazon by tracking price history and setting alerts for price drops. During the discussion, the hosts shared their thoughts on the current state of the property market and encouraged listeners to share their opinions through polls on social media. They also mentioned a resource called camelcamelcamel.com, which is a price tracker for Amazon items. By inputting the URL of a product, users can view its historical price data, including the highest and lowest prices, and set alerts for when the price drops below a desired threshold. This tool can be particularly beneficial for those who use certain items regularly and are not in a rush to purchase them. The hosts emphasized the importance of being patient and taking advantage of price drops to stock up for the future. They also reminded listeners to sign up for their newsletter and tune in for upcoming episodes.