Logo
    Search

    UPDATE: Hot UK Wage Growth, Arm's Blistering Rally & Gaza Pause Hopes

    enFebruary 13, 2024

    Podcast Summary

    • UK labor market puts pressure on Bank of England to hold ratesThe UK labor market's wage growth is leading to fewer rate cut bets and calls for more bank reforms, while the economy underperforms post-Brexit and ARM benefits from AI boom

      The UK labor market is experiencing persistent wage growth, which is putting pressure on organizations to pay more to attract workers. This trend, as analyzed by Petra Tagg of Man Group UK, has led traders to scale back bets on Bank of England rate cuts this year. Additionally, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey believes that more reforms are needed to protect banks from potential runs, despite British lenders trading below their book values. Economists at Goldman Sachs argue that the UK economy has underperformed since leaving the European Union, with real GDP falling behind similar nations due to reduced international trade and fewer migrants. The chip designer ARM has seen significant gains due to the artificial intelligence boom, with its stock soaring and almost doubling in value in less than a week.

    • Strong AI spending boosts Arm's earnings, causing stock surgeArm's earnings surge due to AI spending, leading to a 93% stock price increase, while investors prepare for potential Fed rate hikes and economic indicators remain in focus.

      Arm's impressive earnings report, fueled by strong AI spending, has caused a significant surge in investor interest, resulting in a 93% increase in the company's stock price. This comes as the geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with ongoing negotiations between Israel, the US, Egypt, and Qatar aimed at achieving a 6-week ceasefire in the Gaza conflict. Elsewhere, Elon Musk has weighed in on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, expressing doubt about Ukraine's ability to win the war. Meanwhile, Citigroup is warning investors to prepare for potential future Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. In other news, Taylor Swift's performance at the Super Bowl helped boost US TV viewing figures to a record-breaking 123 million. Despite these diverse developments, financial markets remain focused on economic indicators, with the upcoming US inflation data expected to show a slowdown in price rises.

    • Impact of Taylor Swift on TV ViewershipTaylor Swift's appearance in an event boosted viewership by 7%, illustrating her influence. However, not all live events experience similar success, like the Eurovision Song Contest, which saw a decrease in audience size last year.

      The presence of popular figures like Taylor Swift can significantly boost television audiences, as evidenced by the 7% increase in viewers for the event she appeared in, which was broadcast on both live television and streaming platform Paramount Plus. However, not all live events see similar success. For instance, the Eurovision Song Contest, known for its massive viewership, saw a decrease in audience size last year, primarily due to Russia's exclusion from the contest and the subsequent lack of broadcast in the country. Meanwhile, the latest UK labor market report showed a positive trend with real wage growth and a low unemployment rate, but the market reaction was hawkish due to concerns about inflation and the quality of the data. This report may lead to markets paring back their bets on interest rate cuts in 2024. The upcoming national living wage increase is a significant factor to watch in relation to wage growth and potential inflation.

    • Economic data to show volatility in H1, uncertainty over inflation and employmentEconomists predict inflation drop in Q2, but BoE response uncertain. Labor market data unreliable, private surveys like KPMG Recruitment Survey may provide accurate insights. Monitor multiple indicators for comprehensive economic understanding.

      The economic data, particularly inflation and employment numbers, are expected to show some volatility in the first half of the year, with uncertainty surrounding the exact figures. Economists anticipate a drop in inflation in the second quarter, but it remains to be seen if the Bank of England will respond significantly. The labor market data, in particular, should be treated with caution due to its unreliability and the flaws in the labor force survey. Instead, private surveys like the KPMG Recruitment Survey may provide more accurate insights into the labor market situation. The Bank of England has been looking at a range of data for some time, and it's crucial to keep an eye on multiple indicators to get a more comprehensive understanding of the economic situation.

    • Discussions continue for a potential Gaza ceasefire with unclear detailsTalks of a six-week Gaza ceasefire persist, but specifics like permanence and Israeli troop removal remain undecided

      There are ongoing discussions regarding a potential pause in the fighting in Gaza, with the US proposing a six-week ceasefire. However, the details of the plan, such as whether it leads to a permanent ceasefire and what happens to Israeli troops during this time, remain unclear and are the main points of contention. The length of the pause is also a subject of debate, with some suggesting a few weeks and others several months. While the ongoing conversations are a positive sign, more fundamental issues need to be addressed for an agreement to be reached. In the world of economics, the Labor Market Survey results for September are anticipated to provide significant insights into the current state of the labor market. Until then, it's a waiting game. On a different note, Stifel, a growing entrepreneurial advisor-centric firm, offers resources similar to large wire houses but with the support and flexibility of boutique shops. For financial advisers looking to expand their practice, Stifel may be an attractive option. The Capital Ideas Podcast, a new monthly edition hosted by Capital Group CEO, Mike Gitlin, features investment professionals sharing their best mentors, sources of inspiration, and amusing anecdotes. Subscribe to learn from industry experts and gain valuable insights.

    • Negotiations for Gaza ceasefire complex with intelligence sharing and US-Israel tensionsIntelligence sharing between CIA and Mossad, US attempts to persuade Israel to ceasefire, and tensions between US and Israel over military operations in Gaza

      Ongoing negotiations between Egypt, Qatar, the US, Israel, and Hamas regarding a potential ceasefire in the Gaza Strip have been complex and contentious. These discussions have involved intelligence sharing between the CIA and Mossad regarding the location of Israeli hostages in Gaza. The Arab nations are trying to influence Hamas, but it appears that US President Joe Biden has not been successful in persuading Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to slow down military operations. Netanyahu insists on continuing the war until Hamas is eradicated and the hostages are released. The proposed ground offensive near the Gaza-Egypt border is particularly contentious. Despite the frustration within the US administration, Netanyahu maintains that Israel's goals are clear and they will continue their military actions until they are achieved. The Qatar Economic Forum, where 1,000 global leaders will gather in May, offers a platform for making new connections and gaining unique insights.

    Recent Episodes from Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition

    Daybreak Weekend: U.S Jobs, UK Elections, Hong Kong Handover

    Daybreak Weekend: U.S Jobs, UK Elections, Hong Kong Handover

    Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Guest Host John Tucker takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

    • In the US – a preview of the June jobs report.
    • In the UK – a look ahead to UK elections.
    • In Asia – a look ahead to the July 1st anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong to China from British colonial rule.

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Biden’s Disastrous Debate & The IMF Blasts US Deficits

    Biden’s Disastrous Debate & The IMF Blasts US Deficits

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

    On today's podcast:

    (1) President Joe Biden stumbled through exchanges in Thursday's presidential debate, a performance that risks exacerbating concerns about his age and intensifying Democratic worries about their candidate's ability to defeat Republican Donald Trump in November's election.

    (2) The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that the US is running deficits that are too big and is weighed down by too much debt, and it warned of dangers from increasingly aggressive trade policies.

    (3)  European Union leaders nominated Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as president of the bloc's executive arm, as part of an agreement on top jobs for the next five-year mandate. 

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Top Lobbyist Sees London Gaining Edge & EU Leaders Allocate Top Jobs

    Top Lobbyist Sees London Gaining Edge & EU Leaders Allocate Top Jobs

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

    On today's podcast:

    (1) Keir Starmer accused Rishi Sunak of being “out of touch” with voters as the Labour leader promised to fix Britain’s stagnant economy and ailing public services, and the prime minister used the final televised debate to attack his poll-leading rival on taxes ahead of next week’s election.

    (2) Finance chieftains are once again looking to invest in London as political turmoil in France and the US make the UK look more competitive on the global stage, according to the chief executive officer of a top London lobbying group.

    (3) Former French President Francois Hollande indicated he’d be ready to build a new coalition that could govern if elections deliver a hung parliament as a leftist bloc he’s joined struggles to paper over internal divisions.

    (4)European Union leaders are poised to nominate Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as president of the bloc’s executive arm as part of a top jobs deal for the next five-year mandate.

    (5) The era of big paychecks for Chinese financiers is fast coming to an end as some of the industry’s biggest companies impose strict new limits to comply with President Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign.

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    French Election Debate, Starmer Targets 2.5% Growth & Plane Maker Turbulence

    French Election Debate, Starmer Targets 2.5% Growth & Plane Maker Turbulence

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

    On today's podcast:

    (1) Leaders of France’s three biggest political groups clashed in their first televised debate on everything from retirement and taxes to immigration as they sought to convince voters that they can be trusted to run Europe’s second-biggest economy.

    (2) Keir Starmer, who polls show is on course to be Britain’s next prime minister, said his Labour Party would target economic growth of at least 2.5% if it came to power at the July 4 general election.

    (3) Italy will be offered the chance to fill a senior role in the next European Commission as centrist parties look to wrap up a deal on the bloc’s top jobs before a summit later this week.

    (4) Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said it will be appropriate to reduce interest rates “at some point,” adding that she expects inflation to improve gradually this year before more rapid progress in 2025.

    (5) Rivian Automotive will get a much-needed cash infusion through a new partnership with Volkswagen AG as automakers large and small rethink their strategies in a slowing electric-vehicle market. 

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Nvidia’s $430 Billion Rout, Julian Assange Freed & Britain’s Housing Crisis

    Nvidia’s $430 Billion Rout, Julian Assange Freed & Britain’s Housing Crisis

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

    On today's podcast:

    (1) Nvidia Corp. shares entered correction territory on Monday, as an ongoing selloff erased a historic amount of value for the AI-focused chipmaker.

    (2) The Federal Reserve has shown other US regulators a three-page document of possible changes to their bank-capital overhaul that would significantly lighten the load on Wall Street lenders, according to people familiar with the matter. 

    (3) Wikileaks co-founder Julian Assange will plead guilty to leaking US national security secrets and return to his home country of Australia, under a deal with the Justice Department that ends an almost 15-year battle over his prosecution.

    (4) President Emmanuel Macron said the agendas of the far-right and far-left blocs in France’s upcoming legislative elections pit the country’s people against each other, going so far as to say that “extreme” parties could spark a “civil war.”

    (5) Britain’s housing crisis has become so acute that the next government will need to build the equivalent of another city the size of London to make up for five decades of below-target construction, analysis of official data shows.

     

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Tory Betting Scandal, French Markets On Edge & Ozempic Drives Yogurt Pivot

    Tory Betting Scandal, French Markets On Edge & Ozempic Drives Yogurt Pivot

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:

    (1) Rishi Sunak's chances of avoiding a landslide defeat in the UK general election dwindled further as his governing Conservative Party struggled to contain revelations that several of the prime minister's close aides placed bets on the date of the vote.

    (2) Emmanuel Macron again sought to explain his decision to dissolve parliament, saying he aimed to take into account the defeat his party suffered in European elections and to avoid an even greater risk of turmoil to come.

    (3) China and the European Union agreed to start talks on the bloc's plans to impose tariffs on electric vehicles imported from the Asian nation. 

    (4) US prosecutors have recommended to senior Justice Department officials that Boeing Co. face criminal charges for violating a settlement related to two fatal crashes, Reuters reported, citing two people familiar with the matter it didn't identify.

    (5) The so-called Ozempic Revolution has wiped billions off the market value of food and drink companies. But new weight-loss drugs are giving a boost to at least one line of products that have sometimes previously faced sluggish demand: yogurt.  

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Daybreak Weekend: US Eco Preview, Iran Election, US-China Relations

    Daybreak Weekend: US Eco Preview, Iran Election, US-China Relations

    Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

    • In the US – a look ahead to U.S GDP, PCE data.
    • In the UK – a look ahead to Iran’s Presidential election.
    • In Asia – a discussion on the first 2024 U.S Presidential debate and how the U.S-China relationship will gain attention.

     

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    France's Finance Hub At Risk, BOE Revives Summer Cut Talk & Blackstone's Era of Property Risk

    France's Finance Hub At Risk, BOE Revives Summer Cut Talk & Blackstone's Era of Property Risk

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.


    On today's podcast:


    (1) French President Emmanuel Macron spent much of his tenure persuading bankers and fund managers to flock to Paris after Brexit. His decision to call snap elections may give some in the industry pause.


    (2) German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the leaders of the country’s 16 federal states discussed plans to outsource asylum procedures to a third country, inspired by similar initiatives in the UK and Italy.


    (3) As the cheap-money era fades into history, the world’s biggest real-estate investor Blackstone is moving into riskier new terrain in the hunt for stellar returns. 


    (4) The Bank of England breathed fresh life into hopes for an imminent cut in interest rates, hinting that more of its officials may be close to backing a pivot away from the highest borrowing costs in 16 years. UK consumer confidence improved for a third consecutive month to the strongest level in 2 and 1/2 years, reflecting a rosier economic outlook ahead of the general election.

    (5) Keir Starmer is preparing a blitz of planning reforms if his Labour Party wins the UK election next month, aimed at immediately boosting housebuilding in Britain as he seeks to deliver 1.5 million homes over five years.


    (6) A pair of large bets in the fed funds futures market are attracting attention on Wall Street by setting aside the market-implied consensus for the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut. 

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    BOE Expected To Delay Cut, Inside Hedge Fund Talent Schools & AI To Replace Finance Jobs

    BOE Expected To Delay Cut, Inside Hedge Fund Talent Schools & AI To Replace Finance Jobs

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.


    On today's podcast:

    (1) This may be one meeting where the Bank of England is thankful the decision has been made for them. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s move three weeks ago to call an election has all but ruled out a rate cut when policymakers announce their decision at 12 p.m London time.


    (2) Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party is heading for an electoral wipeout in the UK general election on July 4, according to three major polls on Wednesday, including one that projected even the premier will lose his seat.


    (3) Amid a brutal hiring war, Steve Cohen’s Point72, Ken Griffin’s Citadel and other giant hedge funds are going in a radical new direction: Training schemes for in-house superstars.


    (4) The head of France’s Medef business lobby criticized the campaign programs of both the far right and an alliance of leftist parties, saying they are a danger to the economy.


    (5) Citigroup said artificial intelligence is likely to displace more jobs across the banking industry than in any other sector as the technology is poised to upend consumer finance and makes workers more productive.


    (6) As in past disputes, China looks to be readying a series of actions to punish the European Union for its proposed tariffs on electric cars. 

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Nvidia Now World’s Largest Company & UK Private School Fees Exclusive

    Nvidia Now World’s Largest Company & UK Private School Fees Exclusive

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

    On today's podcast:

    (1) Nvidia’s relentless rally has propelled the semiconductor giant’s market capitalization over its mega-cap tech peers, helping it clinch the title of the world’s most-valuable company as the artificial intelligence wave continues.

    (2) Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are on track to lose more than two thirds of the seats they won at the last general election when Britons cast their votes next month, according to the latest seat-by-seat analysis pointing to an electoral wipe-out for the prime minister’s party.

    (3) Some UK private schools say they’ll have to cut bursary programs that help low-income families should the party follow through on charging schools a value-added tax.

    (4) France and Italy will be among seven countries that will face a European Union infringement procedure for their excessive deficits last year, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    (5) National Rally leader Jordan Bardella said he will not become prime minister if his party doesn’t get a resounding victory in France’s snap election, setting a high bar for the far right to take the reins of policymaking.

    (6) Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived for his first visit to North Korea in 24 years as the US warned the meeting could further arms transfers from Kim Jong Un’s regime that aid the Kremlin in its assault on Ukraine. 

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Related Episodes

    China Recovery Falters And Higher Taxes For More Brits

    China Recovery Falters And Higher Taxes For More Brits

    Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast:

    (1) China's recovery worries mount as data disappoints.
    (2) UK wage rises set to keep the Bank of England on edge.
    (3) The Fed's Bostic tells Bloomberg Radio there's still a ways to go on inflation.
    (4) One in five Brits to start paying the 40% rate by 2027. 

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Pickle the Drag Queen Loves New Romantics

    Pickle the Drag Queen Loves New Romantics

    This week, Sammy and Ellie talk to Pickle the Drag Queen about the dark intensity of modern pure pop anthem New Romantics! We talk about what sorts of buildings the bricks thrown at us could build, how we need love but all we want is cigarettes, the important work Pickle does with Drag Queen Story Hour, and so much more!

    Follow us on Instagram @wyftss and TikTok and tell us your FTSS! Logo by Edwood Burn. Theme song by Lukas Kyp-Johnson.

    Follow us individually too, I mean why not: @elliemce & @sammymowrey

    Tay to Z Episode 146: Shake It Off

    Tay to Z Episode 146: Shake It Off

    In this episode we chat about "Shake It Off" from Taylor's album "1989." We talk about how incredibly catchy and fun this song is, and how INCREDIBLE it is to dance to. We talk about the awesome music video, and Gossip Gab talks about why Taylor wanted to write and release this song,

    Hosts: Devin and Gab

    Sound Design: Devin Johnson-Nieporent and Peter Leigh-Nilsen

    Theme Song: Devin Johnson-Nieporent, Peter Leigh-Nilsen, and Eric Johnson

    Thank you to our Patrons!

    Ashley Shawn, Jessica Hutter, Cally I, Emily Hugo, Hilary Davies, Brittany Perlmuter, Kaitlyn Carlton, Alan Bass, Jessi Sanders, Blue Magnetic Night, Mona N.J, Valentina Paredes, Jessica Parham, Dana Meyerson, Ashley Moore, Maura Sabini, Kylie Seaton, Katie Macqueen, Michael Gage, Maria Nelson, Suzanne Swierc, Brianne Jones, Jimmy Atwell, Izzie Lund, Kaydi Deutsch, Katie Oxman, Franzi Notz, Trystn Daley, Philip Kim, Sierra Fox, Debra Schane, Natalie Waller, Kory B, Grace Stinson, Katy Harris, Eric L, Jacqueline Sandoval, Katie Brown, Lindsey Garner, Julianne Saltalamacchia, Brooke Redmond, Michelle Hau, Holly Hosie, Andrew Bauman, Nadine Biersack, Bong Bong, Melissa Paar, Alice Wheeler.

    Support the show