Voting Blocs and October Shocks (#57)

Two years after her first appearance on The Prediction Trade, political strategist Rachel Bitecofer has returned to build on her previous appearance’s success. It’s a high bar. Last time, she correctly handicapped 10 contentious markets ahead of the 2020 election. On this appearance, Rachel takes a look at the Pennsylvania and Arizona Senate elections, House and Senate control after the midterms, and who will win the Los Angeles mayoral election.

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How do you make six figures trading in prediction markets? SXSW’s Brett Cannon knows, and in this episode of The Prediction Trade he shares the market bets he’s currently making on PredictIt. From Marco Rubio’s Senate race and Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking Senate votes to whether Donald Trump will file for president before 2023, Brett shares his strategies across a variety of market topics.

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In three compelling trade ideas—one lock, one longshot and one even-money bet—Garrett Baldwin covers student loan debt, Dr. Oz’s Pennsylvania Senate race and overall Senate control after the midterms. Plus, he calls upon his expertise as an economist to share his take on what’s going on in the stock market.

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When he’s on the air for tastytrade, Jermal Chandler shares his insights about options, equity markets, interest rates and the economy. When he joins the crew on The Prediction Trade, his baseball-betting side comes out. Jermal predicts the 2022 World Series matchup, winners in all six MLB divisions and both league MVPs. But before he talks baseball, he shares his thoughts on several Kalshi prediction markets, including when high inflation will end, how many Fed rate hikes will come in 2022 and whether or not a recession is coming.

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Cryptocurrency regulation is a hot-button issue—one that Mike Frisch knows a lot about. He spent five years as a CFTC trial attorney and now specializes in cryptocurrency, digital assets and Web3 as partner of the Croke Fairchild Morgan and Beres law firm. Mike weighs in on the state of crypto currently, and how it may be regulated in the future. He also dives into the prediction markets of Kalshi and PredictIt to talk about student loan forgiveness, Build Back Better, the Illinois gubernatorial race and 2024.

Mike Frisch’s comments are neither legal advice nor investment advice.

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After an impressive first appearance, Victor Jones, host of tastytrade’s Jones and Friends, returns to The Prediction Trade with more markets to forecast. From mortgage rates to Fed interest rates, oil prices to gasoline prices, and the U.S. GDP, Victor makes calls in them all. Plus, he updates the market calls he made in his previous appearance.

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Lloyd Green knows what makes or breaks elections. Formerly serving as opposition research counsel to the ‘88 George H.W. Bush campaign, the political columnist for The Guardian and The Daily Beast joins the team at The Prediction Trade to talk about the 2022 midterms and their respective prediction markets on PredictIt. Arizona, Nevada, Florida and Georgia take center stage, but Lloyd also shares his analysis for the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee market.

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Victor Jones is known for hosting tastytrade’s Jones and Friends, but he’s lending his markets and investing expertise to The Prediction Trade for this special episode. A longtime prediction market trader himself, Victor has strong opinions about a variety of topics, and he shares them all. Kalshi’s interest rates and GDP markets, and PredictIt’s House control and presidential nominee markets take center stage, and there’s plenty of lockbox and longshot trades to go around.

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Politics and golf go hand-in-hand in this special episode of TPT. Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty, of BetOnline, shares his golf-betting expertise to handicap the PGA Tour’s U.S. Open. But golf isn’t Paul’s only specialty. As a political junkie, he also shares his bets for the 2024 presidential nominees and whether or not Boris Johnson will remain in office for the rest of the year.

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The crypto crash will eventually come to an end, says Iceberg Capital Group’s portfolio manager Jake Weinig. When it does, the big winners will be the coins that have innovative underlying technology. In this second installment of TPT’s crypto coverage, Jake shares which coins are in his hedge fund’s portfolio—and why crypto investors should consider buying them too. Plus, the crew makes bets in the student loan markets on Kalshi.

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TPT’s theme song: Where Do We Go From Here? (Death)