What will the cold weather and perhaps the political weather mean for energy prices across Europe?

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Dan Veasey as we see extreme heat in Southern Europe. 

Topics explored include:  

• Not much response in pricing to extreme heat, although there is some reduced capacity of the French nuclear fleet.
• Demand has increased in southern Europe, but there is significant renewables generation to counter that right across Europe.
• The variability of renewables and the impact on the management of grid.
• Norwegian gas production increases following the return of a major processing plant. Further maintenance lies ahead next month.
• LNG drops, but meets demand and storage is expected to be at capacity going into winter.
• However, any significant cold snap or supply disruption still presents a real risk for both winter and next summer, especially with LNG demand in Asia picking up.
• The threat to remaining Russian gas supplies.

Listen to the latest episode of the Resonance podcast.  This episode was recorded on 18th July 2023.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Henry Homer as we return to equilibrium, but the fragile balance of supply and demand is causing challenges across Europe. 

Topics explored include: 

 We return to equilibrium, but hydro and nuclear capacity remain a risk.

• Renewables have improved and softened markets, but being intermittent present a challenge to stability without the appropriate storage technology to better manage grid supply.
• Demand destruction is coming to the fore, with natural gas demand in May 23 25% down on average across EU member states, compared with the average for May between 2019-21.
• What does the new European normal look like? 
• What would a difficult scenario mean for prices in Q4 2023?

Listen to the latest episode of the Resonance podcast.  This episode was recorded on 7th July 2023.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Dan Veasey discuss the market implications of Europe reaching full storage capacity by the end of summer, as well as the potential impact of unexpectedly mild weather.

Topics explored include: 

• Short term spike on mutiny news, but no fundamental changes to gas flows from Russia.
• Intra-day volatility has returned somewhat, driven by supply constraints. E.g. Extension of maintenance at a gas processing facility in Norway; expected to be resolved in July. We’re not back to end of June price lows, but far from way off highs at time extension was announced.
• Gas storage good in Europe – stores 76% full
• Inflation and high interest rates may have a marginal impact on forward pricing due to less demand for commodities
• Coal generation still on track to be phased out, despite requirement for baseload power
• Concerns about renewable energy supply chain, as with rest of energy sector, new wind perhaps more expressive than expected and CODs not attractive enough to drive new generation development. Skills gap may also need to be filled.
• The Dutch government has confirmed that the Groningen gas field will close in October, mainly due to earthquake issues in the area.
• It is expected that US LNG cargoes will increase over the next few months, which will help boost storage.
• With storage close to capacity, if we don't see an increase in demand going into September and the weather is milder than expected, the markets will adjust to encourage demand or reduce production. However, further unplanned outages, extreme hot weather, and nuclear outages in France could of course affect this situation.

This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 27th June 2023.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Henry Homer about why Europe is not out of the woods on energy price concerns.

 Topics explored include:

•  Complacency reigns following the price plunge, as gas price spike highlights market risks.
• Focus on structural dangers to manage price risk.
• Storage in Europe is not up to the challenge of a cold winter.
• The recent spike caused by minor issues only – extended maintenance in Norway and demand from Asia.
• Renewables are supporting the market, but intermittent production due to weather creates a volatile market. 
• Policy and contract length to provide adequate baseload is weak across Europe – a shift is needed to manage price volatility during the transition to a low carbon economy.
•  Watch out for nuclear production, hydro and LNG demand in East Asia as we head towards Q3 2023.
• While German industry is concerned about a cut in remaining Russian gas supplies.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Dan Veasey about the return of energy market price volatility. 

Topics explored include:  

• Power market balancing met by coal generation with nuclear reactors offline and demand increases with warmer weather. 
• Reductions in LNG arrivals indicates a general slowdown of deliveries as Asia becomes a more attractive destination. 
• Volatility returns after months of falling prices. 
• The state of the global economy puts downward pressure on oil prices. 
• Despite plans to diversify supply generation for power, a huge reliance of gas remains while storage technologies are developing to meet the needs of intermittent renewable generation. 

This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 13thJune 2023. 

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Henry Homer about the relative calm we are experiencing, and why it is at risk as we head into the summer months.

Topics explored include:

• A price plunge, but what next for Europe?
• What about carbon given its volatile past?
• Why persistent structural risk puts the relative calm in jeopardy.
• Demand destruction in Europe due to lack of supporting policy.
• Supply availability while good at present, is countered by higher supplier margins – more so in Europe than the UK.
• Across Europe the percentage of commodity costs has increased relative to non-commodity costs:
  • Management of commodity costs has once again become an important feature for good delivered energy prices.
  • Will this trend continue with the potential to make Europe attractive for industry once more?
• If you haven’t already, why you should be looking to tender your supply now.

This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 6th June 2023.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Dan Veasey as near-term energy prices continue to fall, the risk to LNG supply from the US and demand from Asia arises.

Topics explored include:

• UK renewable assets lower demand for gas, seeing exports to Europe where prices are at a premium.
• Responding to falling LNG prices, Asian buyer demand tentatively returns to the market.
• If prices continue to decline the US may reduce LNG shipments.
• Structurally the UK and Europe may remain uncompetitive for manufacturing for some time.

This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 30th May 2023.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Henry Homer as prices fall, discussing the innate risk of a single source of supply for gas. 

Topics explored include: 

• Structural issues effecting European markets remain. 
• The 3 pillars – weather, LNG and storage. 
• TTF prices falls, but only for near term spot and month ahead purchases. 
• LNG remains structurally more expensive, while east Asia switches to alternative supplies, for now. 
• Will that change when LNG prices reach a pivotal level? 
•  Water levels are a cause for concern ahead of August, reflecting on the peak of prices last year. 
• When not to tender as risks lie ahead. 

 For details of the discussion, listen to the latest episode of the Resonance podcast below. 

 This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 23rd May 2023. 

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Daniel Veasey as prices soften ahead of the summer. 

Topics explored include:  

• Softening of near-term pricing while winter prices hold. 
• Economic data impacts oil prices, despite OPEC cuts. 
• With LNG delivery at record levels, do falling prices risk supply being diverted to Asia? 
• While supported in recent weeks with increased rainfall and wind power generation, sensitivities around the impact of a mild winter on hydro remain. 
• If the Russia and Ukraine war escalates, risk remains over LNG supplies to Europe. 
• As energy prices in Europe fall, is a recovery in industrial demand underway? 
• UK energy intensive industries are advised to explore government support now. 

 This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 4th May 2023.  

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, as markets plateau, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Henry Homer about the structural dangers that remain and the risk of a rapid return to higher prices.  

Topics explored include:

• As we enter Q2 we see a more supply-based market where equilibrium is returning.
• Joint European energy purchasing raised during the height of the energy crisis subsides, for now. 
• With shocking prices over the energy crisis, many buyers wonder if they should wait or move now on contracts, prices, and where. 
• A supplier market remains, but what does that mean? 
• Recent articles in the market press talk of gas oversupply, but what does the fragility of Europe’s gas balance mean in terms of the risk of a rapid return to higher prices? 
• Supply issues from Norway and France discussed in previous episodes persist, creating uncertainty across Europe, an issue compounded by nuclear generation in Germany being consigned to history.
• This sees a huge reliance on LNG, intensifying risk between now and 2025, sustaining premiums in prices at least until then.

 This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 20th April 2023.