Podcast Summary
Gender gap and US presidential election: The gender gap is crucial in the 2024 US presidential election, with young men leaning Republican and single women under 30 remaining Democratic. Focus on polls from Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to follow the election efficiently.
The gender gap could be a decisive factor in the 2024 US presidential election. While young men are shifting towards the Republican Party, single women under 30 remain a reliable Democratic bloc. However, political scientist John Sides argues that the parties are more polarized by gender attitudes than by gender itself. Despite media focus on vice presidential candidates and other issues, the most efficient way to follow the election is to focus on polls from Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, as these states are crucial for Kamala Harris to win the 270 votes needed for the presidency. The election is not just about policies or economic fundamentals, but also about the significant shift in attitudes among young men and women.
Gender and Politics: Gender is a major dividing line in American politics, with distinct attitudes towards traditional roles shaping the 2024 election discourse, while efforts continue to combat robocalls and spam texts.
Gender is becoming an increasingly important axis of polarization in America, shaping debates and discussions leading up to the 2024 election. While it may be difficult to predict specific outcomes, such as Kamala Harris' vice presidential pick or the impact on polls, the divide between Republican and Democratic Party attitudes towards gender and traditional roles is a significant theme to watch. Meanwhile, the issue of robocalls and spam texts, which Americans receive in massive quantities, is a reminder of the challenges and potential dangers of advanced technology. Despite the seemingly overwhelming problem, progress is being made in combating robocalls, offering hope for a future with less unwanted intrusions.
Robocalls legalities and sources: Robocalls, both legal and illegal, are a growing issue due to their profitability and the ease of using technology to make them. Political robocalls have more legal flexibility, but scammers often use neighbor spoofing to mimic local area codes and manipulate sensitive information.
Robocalls are illegal when made without consent to cell phones or when telemarketing without consent to any phone, but political robocalls have more legal flexibility. These calls come from various sources, including small operations and sophisticated organized crime rings, often using technology like neighbor spoofing to mimic local area codes. Robocalls work by blasting calls to as many numbers as possible or using more targeted scams, and they continue to be a profitable economic activity despite efforts to combat them. For instance, scammers may pose as your bank and manipulate you into giving them sensitive information. The rise of internet technology has made it easier for robocalls to operate, and despite efforts to improve call authentication, there are still gaps that scammers exploit.
Robocalls and tech spam in the 2010s: The affordability and ease of use of internet-based calling platforms led to a surge in robocalls and tech spam, with many operations based overseas and using live human interactions to scam victims
The 2010s saw a significant increase in robocalls and tech spam due to the affordability and ease of use of internet-based calling platforms. This technological shift made it cheap and easy for scammers to make a high volume of calls, leading to a surge in unwanted calls. Many of these scamming operations are based overseas, particularly in countries like India, where advanced call center infrastructure exists and there is a large workforce trained in call center work. Some of these call centers may start out as legitimate operations but then transition into illegal activities. The rise of live human interactions in scams, rather than automated robocalls, has also become more common. The Telephone Consumer Protection Act and the Do Not Call list helped reduce unwanted telemarketing calls in the late 80s and 90s, but the challenges posed by the 2010s required new solutions to address the increasing issue of robocalls and tech spam.
Robocall combat progress: Collaboration between industry and government led to frameworks for blocking and labeling spam calls, making it harder to spoof numbers, and implementing traceback efforts to identify origins, resulting in a significant decline of robocalls from billions to just a few thousand per month
Despite the surge of robocalls and scams in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, significant progress has been made in combating this issue through collaboration between the industry and government. This includes the creation of frameworks for blocking and labeling spam calls, making it harder to spoof numbers, and implementing traceback efforts to identify the origins of calls. For instance, the decline of car warranty and student loan robocalls from billions to just a few thousand per month demonstrates the success of these efforts. The phone network functions similarly to shipping, with multiple providers handling a call's journey to reach its destination. Traceback works by identifying the providers that touched the call and walking back the line to find its origin. The success of traceback and other initiatives shows that despite ongoing challenges, effective solutions can be implemented to reduce the number of robocalls.
Text message spam and scams: Scammers shift from robocalls to robo texts due to regulatory efforts and technological advancements, making it harder to trace the origin of spam texts and requiring new approaches to combat them
The evolution of spam and scam activities from robocalls to robo texts is a result of the increasing difficulty in carrying out robocalls due to regulatory efforts and technological advancements. Smaller voice service platforms are often suspicious of new businesses attempting to join their networks due to past experiences with auto warranty scams. The traceback process for identifying the origin of spam texts is different from that of robocalls, as each carrier only knows who gave them the text message, not its origin. The shift to text messages is a response by scammers to find new and efficient ways to defraud people. While there are similarities in the technology used for both robocalls and robo texts, the solutions for addressing them are not identical. The success against text messages is still in its early stages, and new approaches are required. Regarding the future of AI, while there are concerns about the potential for a golden age of spam and scam, it's important to consider the lessons learned from robocalls and apply them to new use cases like text messages. However, the unique challenges of text messages require different solutions overall.
AI and scams: AI can enhance scam capabilities, but existing tools and human behavior changes are effective in reducing robocall complaints, and progress is being made in holding scammers accountable.
The intersection of AI and spam poses significant risks, particularly in the area of scams. AI can improve the quality and make it easier to carry out scams, potentially expanding the pool of perpetrators and victims. However, some risks are overblown, such as the notion that every call will be AI-generated. Existing tools to combat robocalls are effective, and human behavior is also changing in response to the robocall problem. Despite progress, there are still hundreds of thousands of complaints each month, and the goal is to build trust in the phone system again by implementing protections and holding scammers accountable. The decline in robocall complaints over the past five years is a policy success story, illustrating how government and the private sector can work together to address real-world problems.
Complex issues, long-term perspective: Solving complex issues requires accountability, trusting the process, and a long-term perspective, even when progress may not be immediately visible.
Solving complex issues requires accountability and a long-term perspective. Trusting the process and making incremental progress is essential, even when it may not be immediately satisfying. The robo call problem is an example of this, where progress may not always be visible but data shows that it has been effective. Policy makers should remember that there are no magic solutions and that continuous effort is necessary to tackle hard-to-solve problems. The NBA, with its complex trade machinations, serves as a reminder that progress may not always be linear but it is progress nonetheless. The production of today's episode was handled by Devin Baraldi, and listeners can look forward to one episode a week on Fridays in the coming weeks.