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    You Ask Us: Who replaces Rishi Sunak – and could Labour MPs defect?

    enJuly 14, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Personalized sleep solutions and political uncertaintyThe Sleep Number Smart Bed provides customized comfort for better sleep, while the Conservative Party leadership race remains uncertain with multiple potential contenders

      Quality sleep is a priority, and the Sleep Number Smart Bed offers personalized comfort to help individuals and couples achieve better sleep. The JD Power-ranked mattresses allow for customization in firmness and temperature, leading to increased customer satisfaction. Additionally, Mint Mobile is reducing the price of its unlimited plan to $15 a month, offering a significant savings for new customers. In politics, the Conservative Party leadership race is uncertain, with names like Kemi Badenoch, Penny Mordaunt, Suella Braverman, James Cleverly, and Ben Wallace being mentioned as potential contenders. The outcome of the race is difficult to predict due to the divided opinions among Conservative Party members regarding the scale of defeat they may face in upcoming elections.

    • Conservative Party Leadership Contest: Uncertain Outcome Amidst Potential Election LossThe Conservative Party leadership contest outcome is uncertain due to potential election loss factors like Brexit dissatisfaction and economic issues. Contenders like Penny Mordaunt and Kemi Badenoch lead on labor and culture wars. The aftermath of a defeat could impact the party's direction, with centrist or socially conservative leaders emerging.

      The outcome of the next Conservative Party leadership contest is uncertain, and the circumstances surrounding a potential Conservative Party loss in the next election could significantly influence the dynamics of the race. Penny Mordaunt and Kemi Badenoch are seen as strong contenders due to their positions on labor and culture wars issues. However, the public's reasons for voting against the Conservative Party, such as dissatisfaction with Brexit or the economy, could sway the outcome. Additionally, the lessons drawn from a potential defeat could also impact the party's direction, with centrist or socially conservative leaders potentially emerging as frontrunners. The BBC controversy and anti-BBC sentiment from Tory MPs illustrate the volatile nature of the situation. It's crucial to avoid reading the wrong lessons from a defeat, as the aftermath of the 2015 Labour Party loss demonstrates. Ultimately, the outcome of the leadership contest depends on various factors, and it's essential to remain cautious and consider all possibilities.

    • The future of political party leadership depends on a leader's presentation style and personalityThe success of a political leader depends on their ability to appeal to voters and maintain a consistent message, while the opposition party's failures also play a role.

      The future leadership of political parties could heavily depend on the presentation style and personality of their leaders. The discussion suggests that a more bold and compelling presence, like Kemi Badenoch, could appeal to some voters, especially in the context of a catastrophic defeat. However, the success of Keir Starmer as an individual politician will also be subject to a significant evaluation after the next election. The party's factions, such as the moderates and the rights, will have different opinions on who would make a suitable leader. For instance, those on the right of the Conservative Party might prefer a refreshing and positive face like Kemi Badenoch. However, her ability to stick to her guns and maintain a consistent message could be a concern for some, especially if she has to row back on previous statements. Ultimately, the winning appeal and the opposition to a political leader will depend on the specific circumstances of the election and the failures of the opposing party.

    • Impact of UK Election on Conservative PartyA Labour win could diminish culture war focus in Tory leadership race, Brexit's impact uncertain, presentation, fresh faces, and party size could influence Tory decisions.

      The outcome of the upcoming UK election and the resulting political landscape will significantly impact the Conservative Party's approach to leadership and key issues, including the culture war and Brexit. A Labour victory with a strong economic message could potentially diminish the significance of the culture war in the next Tory leadership race. However, the impact of Brexit on the Conservative Party's campaign remains uncertain. Additionally, the recent Tory leadership contest saw high polling for candidates representing different sides of the conservative project, suggesting that presentation and fresh faces may play a role in party members' decisions. The scale of the Conservative Party's defeat could also determine the level of chaos and internal fighting, potentially leaving them in a difficult position to form coalitions or return to power. Rumors of Labour defections add another layer of complexity to the post-election political landscape.

    • Labour Party's Direction and Potential TensionsLabour's chances of winning the next election are high, but internal tensions and the rise of the Green Party could cause instability.

      The chances of Keir Starmer being ousted as Labour leader before the next general election are considered unlikely by the speaker. Labour MPs are confident in their direction towards a victory and unseating Starmer could cause instability. However, potential tensions within the Labour Party about Starmer's direction from the left may lead to factional infighting after a potential Labour victory in the government. Additionally, the speaker mentioned the rising support for the Green Party, specifically attracting both Labour and Conservative voters, which could potentially lead to Labour MPs defecting. The speaker also encouraged listeners to vote for the New Statesman podcast in the British Podcast Awards and to sign up for their daily politics newsletter, Morning Call. Lastly, a Mother's Day promotion was mentioned for Blue Nile, offering up to 50% off on their website.

    • Labour Party's Trade Unions Staying Put for Influence and Radical PoliciesLabour Party's trade unions remain aligned due to potential influence and radical employment proposals like 'New Deal for Workers' and 'Future of Work' program.

      The Labour Party's affiliated trade unions, despite some dissatisfaction, are staying put due to the potential influence they can wield, especially with upcoming policy decisions. The recently announced "New Deal for Workers" proposal, which includes radical employment rights and flexible working hours, is seen as a dream come true for many union leaders. The Labour Party's Future of Work program, led by Angela Rayner, is also a significant policy that keeps the left satisfied. However, there have been concerns over selection processes and membership cleanup that have caused some unrest. The National Policy Conference is expected to be a moment of attention, where unions will decide what recommendations to make for the next manifesto. Overall, the relationships between the Labour Party and the trade unions are complex, but the unions' influence and the radical policies in place are keeping them engaged.

    • Labour Party's Internal Tension between Left and Moderate WingsThe Labour Party grapples with internal strife between its left and moderate factions over party membership, electoral pacts, and proportional representation. While defections to the Greens over certain issues are unlikely, internal disagreements persist, particularly on trans rights and economic realities.

      The Labour Party is experiencing internal tension between its left and moderate wings, with differing views on party membership and the role of electoral pacts and proportional representation. There are concerns about last-minute allegations against MPs, leading to a perceived squeeze on the left. However, the prospect of Labour defections to the Greens over specific issues like environmental pledges or trans rights seems unlikely due to the belief that Labour offers the best chance for electoral success. The handling of the Green Prosperity pledge has been seen as a sensible response to economic realities. Other fringe issues, such as trans rights, have caused internal conflict and challenged the leadership. Starmer has ruled out a shift towards proportional representation, leading to frustration among some members. Carla Deneye, a Green Party spokesperson, did not indicate any conversations with specific Labour MPs regarding defections.

    • Political shifts and alliances after the electionDespite the focus on the upcoming election, political parties may engage in talks over the next few years on various issues, hinting at potential shifts and alliances.

      Potential for political shifts and alliances, even after a general election. While the focus is currently on the upcoming election, there's a possibility that members of different parties may engage in talks over the next few years on various issues. This was hinted at during the conversation about the potential defection of a Labour member due to her viewpoint alignment with the conservatives. However, the immediate priority seems to be reaching the election finish line. The New Statesman podcast team encourages listeners to submit their questions and offers a new feature - publishing their long-reads in the podcast feed, starting with an essay on the Spanish elections and Europe by Jeremy Cliffs. They also mentioned their sponsor, UnitedHealthcare, and their short-term insurance plans offering flexible and budget-friendly coverage for those in need.

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