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    About this Episode

    One topic that has garnered attention this week is Fitch's decision to cut the US credit rating. 

    This move has had implications for investments, interest rates, and overall market sentiment.

    Want to learn more?

    In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese explore the recent downgrade of US debt by Fitch, its implications, and market reaction. Ryan and Sonu also touch on gridlock in Washington, macro policy performance, and the positive outlook on the economy. Additionally, they analyze the current state of the labor market and its impact on the economy.

    Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

    • The Fitch downgrade of US debt and the reasons behind it
    • The improvement in the debt to GDP ratio and the concerns about governance quality in Washington
    • The Fed's credibility and their response to the highest inflation in 40 years
    • The factors contributing to the rise in treasury yields and the impact of Fitch downgrading debt
    • Various positive economic indicators
    • Prime age employment population ratio: What you need to know about the low layoffs rates and strong hiring which indicate a tight labor market
    • And more!

    Resources:

    Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

    Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

    Recent Episodes from Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

    Election Special with Libby Cantrill of PIMCO (Ep. 75)

    Election Special with Libby Cantrill of PIMCO (Ep. 75)

    As the race to the White House heats up, experts from the financial sector weigh in on the high-stakes implications of the upcoming presidential election.

    Today on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group analyze the upcoming presidential election's potential effects on financial markets with Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO. They dissect the political landscape's influence on the markets and discuss Joe Biden's likelihood of remaining the Democratic nominee, comparing the current political climate to historical elections. Their conversation also covers pivotal issues that could sway key battleground states, and how re-election campaigns might influence stock market performance. Additionally, they touch on the role of Congress in fiscal policy and the implications for equity and bond markets.

    Libby discusses:

    • The impact of the upcoming presidential election on financial markets
    • Significance of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency
    • The government spending deficit and its implications
    • The strength of the US economy
    • Potential nominees for the presidential election
    • Importance of state polling in critical states
    • The impact fiscal policy has on stock market performance
    • And more!
    • The charitable entities and/or fundraising opportunities described herein are not endorsed by, or affiliated with CWM, LLC., or its affiliates. Our philanthropic interests are personal to us and are not reviewed, sponsored, or approved by CWM, LLC.


    Resources:

    Connect with Libby Cantrill: 

    Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

    Connect with Sonu Varghese: 


    About our guest:

    Ms. Cantrill is head of U.S. public policy and a managing director in PIMCO's portfolio management group. In her role, she analyzes policy and political risk for the firm’s Investment Committee and leads U.S. policymaker engagement and policy strategy for the firm. She also works closely with PIMCO’s Global Advisory Board, led by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. She has served as a rotating member of the firm’s Executive Committee and is a founding member of PIMCO Families and PIMCO Women. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2007, she served as a legislative aide in the House of Representatives and also worked in the investment banking division at Morgan Stanley. She has 19 years of investment experience and holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and received her undergraduate degree in economics from Brown University. Ms. Cantrill is a CFA charter holder and a regular contributor to Bloomberg and CNBC. She is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and sits on the boards of Covenant House New York and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association ("SIFMA").

    Libby Cantrill is not affiliated with CWM, LLC.

    It Is a NVIDIA World, We Are Just Living in It (Ep. 74)

    It Is a NVIDIA World, We Are Just Living in It (Ep. 74)

    Can NVIDIA sustain its remarkable earnings growth?

    This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group analyze the stock market's current state, with a special focus on NVIDIA's stellar earnings and the market's overall positioning. They discuss their strategic investment preferences, favoring sectors like industrials, financials, energy, and healthcare, while maintaining a neutral stance on technology and communications. They’re optimistic about the market's broad-based expansion and highlight the importance of managing volatility in their diverse portfolio offerings. Additionally, they share personal anecdotes from industry events and reflect on Warren Buffett's investment strategies, emphasizing the significance of buying at fair prices and the use of leverage.

    Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

    • NVIDIA's impressive earnings and financial performance
    • Analysis of market performance and concerns about the concentration of gains
    • Overweight stance on equities and preference for sectors such as industrials, financials, energy, and healthcare
    • Emphasis on sector rotation and overweight position in small and mid-cap stocks
    • Optimism about broad-based expansion and GDP growth
    • Importance of managing volatility in investment portfolios
    • Importance of diversification in the bond market and defensive market strategies
    • Warren Buffett's investment strategies and leverage utilization
    • And more!



    Resources:

    Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

    Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

    Did the Economy Actually Slow Down? (Ep. 73)

    Did the Economy Actually Slow Down? (Ep. 73)

    We are confronted with a key question as we deal with economic downshifts and market swings.

    Does the latest data really reflect an economic slowdown?

    In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze various indicators to assess the pace of economic growth, including market performance, inflation metrics such as CPI, PPI, and PCE, and trends in retail sales and industrial production. Additionally, they explore the impact of younger generations on historical progress and provide insights into GDP growth and income trends, offering a comprehensive economic check-up.

    Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

    • An analysis of the stock market's performance, focusing on small and mid-cap stocks
    • Yearly market trends, corrections, and the Valentine's Day indicator
    • Larry Summers' predictions and their significance in the market
    • Different inflation metrics such as CPI, PPI, and PCE, and their relevance in assessing inflation trends
    • Recent inflation trends and the potential impact on Fed rate cuts and market expectations
    • An analysis of retail sales and industrial production data
    • The current economic slowdown and comparison with previous years
    • And more!


    Resources:

    Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

    Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

    Talking about Bitcoin ETFs with Matt Hougan (Ep. 72)

    Talking about Bitcoin ETFs with Matt Hougan (Ep. 72)

    Bitcoin ETFs are one of the most anticipated and debated developments in the crypto space. 

    What are the implications for the market, the economy, and crypto's future? 

    In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, speak with Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management about the impact of Bitcoin ETFs on the market, offering a new investment avenue. They explore Bitcoin's role as an asset class or currency within traditional portfolios. Ryan and Sonu also cover the CPI data, its implications for inflation, and market expectations.

    Listen to the episode to learn about:

    • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data
    • The stock market’s performance, historical seasonality, and the likelihood of a market pullback
    • The increase in household net worth and credit card debt, highlighting the overall financial situation of consumers
    • The significance of Bitcoin ETF approval and its impact on financial advisors and investors
    • Fund flows from GBTC to new Bitcoin ETFs
    • Adding Bitcoin to portfolios, its historical returns, volatility, and the potential benefits for investors
    • The likelihood of Ethereum ETFs
    • Short-term and long-term drivers of Bitcoin’s value
    • And more!


    Resources:

    Connect with Matthew Hougan: 

    Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

    Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

    About Our Guest:

    Matt Hougan is a well-known expert in the fields of cryptocurrency, ETFs, and financial technology. He currently serves as the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, which is the world's largest provider of cryptocurrency index funds and manages over $1.5 billion in assets.

    Before this, he was the CEO of ETF.com and Inside ETFs. During his tenure, he played a key role in developing the world's first ETF data and analytics system, the most popular ETF media platform, and the world's largest ETF conference.

    Matt serves as a board member for Equbot and is also a strategic advisor to several startups related to cryptocurrency and financial advising, such as Blockworks, Stratifi, and Exchange. He co-founded Advisor Circle, which is a product and content studio for the financial industry and also created the Futureproof Wealth Festival.

    Let the Good Times Roll (Ep. 71)

    Let the Good Times Roll (Ep. 71)

    From the stock market hitting all-time highs to new tax bills, positive economic indicators, and even the Super Bowl, there's a lot to keep track of when it comes to finance and investing this week!

    In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, provide an in-depth analysis of current economic indicators, including jobs, productivity, and consumer confidence. They also touch on the potential for a stock market breather in February amidst election buzz. Additionally, they examine a new tax bill that could inject more money into the economy and give the stock market a boost. 

    Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

    • The stock market hitting all-time highs, historical February performance, and potential market consolidation
    • A bipartisan tax bill moving through Congress and its potential impact on business and individual finances
    • An analysis of the Super Bowl indicator and its historical correlation with stock market performance
    • The Fed's approach to potential rate cuts and market expectations
    • A comparison of income-driven and credit-driven economic cycles and their impacts on the economy
    • An analysis of the strong job market report and consumer confidence data
    • The importance of productivity in driving positive economic outcomes 
    • And more!


    Resources:

    Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

    Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

    Unpacking a Mega Week (Ep. 70)

    Unpacking a Mega Week (Ep. 70)

    The stock market has been on a remarkable run, reaching new highs and defying expectations. 

    But what are the drivers behind this rally, and what are the risks ahead? 

    In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze recent market trends, including the stock market's highs and the implications of the upcoming Fed meeting. They explore the significance of January's market performance, particularly in the financial sector, as an indicator for the year's outlook. Additionally, they cover the recent GDP report, offering insights into the economy's trajectory.

    Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

    • The positive implications of the market making new highs and its historical performance
    • Potential factors that could disrupt the bullish market trajectory
    • The significance of January performance and its potential impact on the market for the rest of the year
    • Forecasting the Fed’s decision and its potential impact on the market
    • The strong fourth quarter GDP growth, consumption, and investment spending, and its implications on the economy
    • Comparison of nominal GDP growth in the US and China
    • And more!


    Resources:

    Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

    Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

    Can You Take Me Higher (Ep. 69)

    Can You Take Me Higher (Ep. 69)

    Now that the stock market has reached its all-time high, what can we expect?

    Which ways can the latest economic indicators and international markets affect us?

    In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into the stock market's recent all-time highs and their implications for investors. They also cover the importance of manufacturing and high-tech industries for the economy. Additionally, they examine global economic factors, including China's influence on markets and the comparative strengths of the US economy.

    Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

    • Historical data on all-time highs, patterns of all-time highs over the years, and the likelihood of continued all-time highs
    • Analysis of the increase in consumer confidence
    • An analysis of retail sales
    • The importance of manufacturing for the economy, including high-paying jobs and the impact on supply chains
    • The positive trends in high-tech production and its impact on the economy
    • The impact of Taiwan Semiconductor's growth on the semiconductor market and its implications for investors
    • The impact of geopolitical tensions on the stock markets, particularly in Taiwan and China
    • The impact of China's economic slowdown on global markets
    • A Comparison of the growth rates of the US and China economies
    • The potential momentum in small and mid-cap stocks and the significance of GDP growth
    • And more!


    Resources:

    Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

    Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

    The Little Things May Add Up (Ep. 68)

    The Little Things May Add Up (Ep. 68)

    The world is facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities in 2024. From geopolitical tensions and trade wars to technological innovations and environmental issues.

    How can investors navigate these times? How will the emergence of cryptocurrencies and digital assets affect the financial system and regulation? 

    In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the economic outlook and global issues. They also dive into the implications of Bitcoin ETFs, volatility, and risk tolerance in cryptocurrency markets. Additionally, they touch on inflation and rates, referencing the CPI and PPI, the M2 concerns, and the male labor participation rate.

    Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

    • The geopolitical scene, focusing on the Red Sea issues and the impact on global shipping and oil prices
    • The recent election in Taiwan and the potential impact on China
    • The drama surrounding the Bitcoin ETF approval
    • An analysis of inflation data, including CPI and PPI, and its impact on potential rate cuts by the Fed
    • The significance of M2 being negative year over year and its potential impact on the economy
    • The male labor participation rate and its comparison to historical levels
    • The beginning of earnings season, bank performance, and significant developments in the aviation and technology sectors
    • And more!


    Resources:

    Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

    Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

    Welcome to Our 2024 Outlook (Ep. 67)

    Welcome to Our 2024 Outlook (Ep. 67)

    With signals of growth faced against global uncertainties, what can we expect from the global economy in 2024?

    How will these factors affect the performance of various sectors and markets, and what strategies can investors adopt to navigate this year? 

    In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, share their 2024 outlook on the economy and stock market. They analyze the surprises from 2023 and explain why there is still no likelihood of a recession. Additionally, they explore potential Fed rate cuts and provide an outlook for bonds, housing, manufacturing, and fixed income strategies.

    Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

    • Surprises and trends from 2023, including economic growth and employment gains
    • The main drivers to avoid a recession
    • The current labor market, job creation, unemployment rate, and wage growth
    • Productivity's impact on economic growth and the outlook for 2024
    • The likelihood of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and their potential impact on the economy
    • The outlook for stocks and bonds in 2024
    • The influence of housing demand, supply, and interest rates, as well as the impact of fiscal policy on manufacturing and construction
    • The market's historical performance in midterm and pre-election years
    • The strength in small and mid-cap stocks
    • And more!


    Resources:

    Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

    Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

    Welcome to ’24! (Ep. 66)

    Welcome to ’24! (Ep. 66)

    Happy New Year and welcome to the very first Facts vs Feelings episode of 2024!

    In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group analyze market trends and the outlook for 2024. They discuss the recent market rally, the role of inflation and the Federal Reserve, and the potential for continued growth, especially in small and mid-cap stocks. They explore economic cycle indicators, the impact of inflation and rate cuts, and the unpredictability of market returns. Forecasts for the S&P 500 are debated, with a focus on the likelihood of higher gains despite the challenges of accurate predictions.

    Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

    • Market trends and potential outlook for 2024
    • Factors contributing to the recent market rally
    • Performance of small and mid-cap stocks
    • The significance of small-cap industries
    • Early versus late economic cycle indicators
    • Impact of inflation and rate cuts on market performance
    • Forecasts for the S&P 500 for 2024
    • Likelihood of positive returns in the market
    • The importance of understanding odds and adjusting investment strategies
    • And more!


    Resources:

    Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

    Connect with Sonu Varghese: