Between the Bells

Wall St closed lower overnight following the release of hotter-than-expected inflation data for January. The Dow Jones fell 1.35%, the S&P 500 lost 1.37% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day 1.8% in the red.

The consumer price index rose 0.3% in January from December and increased 3.1% on an annual basis, which was above the 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% annual rate that economists were expecting.

Over in Europe, markets closed lower in the region following the release of some key corporate earnings results and hotter-than-expected inflation reading out of the US. The STOXX600 fell 1% on Tuesday, Germany’s DAX lost 0.92%, the French CAC closed 0.84% lower and, in the UK, the FTSE100 shed 0.81%.

The local market closed Tuesday’s session 0.15% lower, extending on Monday’s losses as the healthcare sector again weighed on the key index, while utilities, financials and discretionary stocks closed the day in the green. The market losses were slightly offset by investor sentiment rising after Westpac consumer confidence data for February came in at a rise of 6.2%, up from a 1.3% decline in January and well above what economists were expecting of a further 0.8% decline. NAB business confidence data also came in at a rise of 1 point which was in line with economists’ expectations.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a fall of 1.64% at the open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
  • Oil is trading over 1% higher at US$77.74 cents a barrel as tensions in the middle east help support oil prices. 
  • Gold is trading down 1.3% to US$1993.60 cents an ounce following stronger-than-expected inflation data coming out of the US. 
  • And iron ore is trading flat at US$128 a tonne. 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has initiated coverage on MMA Offshore (ASX:MRM) and has recommended a buy with a 12-month price target of $2.55. MMA Offshore is an Australian-marine services business, which delivers vessel, subsea and project logistics expertise to a range of global customers. The buy rating is recommended as the offshore services market is in the midst of a boom cycle following a protracted downturn by the oil price crash in 2014 and the subsequent fall in demand.
• And Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on HealthCo. H&W REIT (ASX:HCW) despite lowering its 12-month price target to $1.70. The buy rating is maintained as HCW appears to be one of the better relative value propositions amongst the REITs sector with it being the only REIT to recognise value uplift at the half.

Wall Street closed mixed on Monday with the Dow Jones rising to a record close, building on the momentum of last week as investors responded to key earnings results and await the release of core inflation data out later this week to determine the broader picture of business and economic stability in the higher interest rate environment. 

European markets started the week in positive territory across the board as investors continue responding to corporate earnings results out in the region. 

The local market started the new trading week with a rollercoaster of a session as the key index rose and fell throughout the day before closing 0.4% lower as investors responded to key trading updates and reporting season results. Tech stocks took lead from the Nasdaq’s strong rally last week while consumer discretionary stocks rose on resilient results out of some big names.

Healthcare giant CSL weighed on the healthcare sector and ASX as a whole yesterday, with its shares falling over 5% on the announcement that the company’s top-line results from the Phase 3 trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of its CSL112 drug in reducing the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients, did not meet its primary efficacy endpoint reduction at day 90, and that the company now has no near-term plans to file for regulatory approval of the drug candidate.

Reporting season ramped up yesterday with JB Hi-Fi rallying 7% during the session after posting results that topped analysts’ expectations. Despite revenue, profit and the company’s interim dividend all declining, investors bought into the tech retailer as the results were not as bad as were expected and reflected the company’s resilience amid the declining consumer spend environment.

Synlait Milk also disappointed investors yesterday, with shares dropping 14% after the company warned investors to brace for a net loss in the range of $17m-$21m for the six-month period ending 31st January mainly due to financing costs and changes in margins.

Rail freight operator, Aurizon, was the talk of the market yesterday after posting strong first half results including revenue up 16%, NPAT growth of 82% to $237m, EPS up 82% and increased its dividend per share by 39% to 9.7ps. Aurizon also reported a 169% rise in free cashflow, attributing the impressive first half results to a solid performance in the Network and Coal businesses and continued revenue and volume growth in Bulk and Containerised freight.

On the economic calendar today, NAB Business Confidence data for January and Westpac Consumer Confidence data for February are released this morning with the expectation of a rise in business confidence but a slide in consumer confidence.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of the local trading session the SPI futures are expecting the ASX to open Tuesday’s session 0.26% higher.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is flat at US$76.80/barrel, gold is down 0.32% at US$2017/ounce, and iron ore is flat at US$128/tonne.
• AU$1.00 is buying US$0.65, 97.62 Japanese Yen, 51.65 British Pence and NZ$1.07.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained a buy rating on Propel Funeral Partners (ASX:PFP) and have raised the 12-month price target on the company from $5.90 to $6.20 following the company’s successful raising of ~$90m via a $80m institutional placement and $10m non-underwritten share purchase plan at $5.15/share. Proceeds from the raising are to be used to pay down debt to provide financial flexibility to pursue further growth initiatives, including acquisitions.
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 20-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $60.58 to the range of $60.90 to $61.90 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed mixed on Friday with the S&P500 climbing 0.57% to close above 5000 points for the first time ever on Thursday as investors responded to December’s revised inflation report came in below first reported reading. The Dow Jones fell 0.14% at the closing bell while the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 1.25%. Over the 5 trading days last week the S&P500 added 1.4% in its 5th straight positive week, the Nasdaq rose 2.3% and the Dow Jones remained flat across the trading week.

The initial December inflation reading of 0.3% growth was downwardly revised on Friday to a 0.2% increase and core inflation results for the U.S. are due out this week.

Strong earnings results are also driving investor confidence in the US as tech mega caps including Nvidia and Alphabet rallied 3.6% and 2% respectively on Friday while Cloudfare soared 19.5% on strong earnings.

Over in Europe, markets closed slightly lower on Friday as investors digested corporate earnings results despite the release of favourable economic data out in the region. The STOXX600 fell just 0.08% on Friday, Germany’s DAX lost 0.22%, the French CAC dropped 0.24%, and in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.3%.

Fresh inflation data out of Germany released on Friday indicated inflation fell to 3.1% in January in a positive sign for Europe’s largest economy.

Locally on Friday, the ASX200 rose 0.07% led by the technology sector rallying 1.12% and healthcare stocks adding 1%, while losses among energy and utilities stocks weighed on the key index.

Boral shares jumped 13% on Friday after the leading cement producer delivered very strong first half results including revenue up 9.4% and underlying NPAT soaring 143% over the 6-month period. Strong price realisation and volume recovery were the drivers of the stronger first half results.

Local uranium stocks took a hit on Friday after Canadian uranium miner Cameco announced plans to expand production at its Cigar Lake Mine and McArthur River/Key Lake, to address the growing global demand for the key commodity. Boss Energy fell 12.7% on Friday while Paladin Energy fell just over 7%.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of the local trading session here in Australia to start the new week, the ASX200 is set to open Monday’s session slightly in the red ahead of a big reporting season week locally this week.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.81% higher at US$76.84/barrel, gold is down 0.5% at US$2022.90/ounce, uranium is up 6% at US$106/pound and iron ore is flat at US$128/tonne.
• AU$1.00 is buying US$0.65, 97.29 Japanese Yen, 51.67 British Pence and NZ$1.06.
• On the reporting season calendar today, you can expect to see results released from Aurizon Holdings, Beach Energy, JB Hi-Fi, and James Hardie Industries.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained a hold rating on REA Group (ASX:REA) and has slightly decreased the 12-month price target from $179 to $174 following the release of first half results including a 22% increase in EPS to 189cps, a 16% increase in dividend to 87cps which fell short of Bell Potter expectations. Despite the strong quarter, Bell Potter believes the current share price of $176.43 has REA Group relatively fully valued.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Infratil (ASX:IFT) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 9-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $10.11 to the range of $10.80 to $11/share according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Reporting season has kicked off and 13 companies released their financial results so far, with 6 beating expectations and 7 meeting expectations. In this week’s wrap we highlight the results and investor reactions to some key companies. 

Locally, from Monday to Thursday, the ASX200 fell 0.78%, weighed down by the materials and energy sectors and tracking the heavy losses on global markets.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:22): how Amcor’s cost controls offset the impact of lower volumes
• (0:56): what's driving performance of REITs like Centuria Industrial
• (1:28): ResMed exceeding expectations across all key metrics
• (2:11): why Champion Iron’s share price fell
• (3:09): investors impressed by Transurban’s results
• (5:42): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients
• (6:14): economic data to watch next week.

Wall St closed higher overnight with the S&P 500 on the verge of reaching the 5,000 level for the first time ever. The Dow Jones rallied 0.13%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq saw a rise of 0.24% and the S&P 500 saw an increase of 0.06%. 

In terms of US stocks, Disney rallied 11% after beating quarterly earnings estimates and raising its guidance.

Over in Europe, markets closed mixed as investors react to earnings. The STOXX600 closed flat with gains lead by household goods up 1.9% and losses spearheaded by health-care stocks which fell 1.9%. Germany’s DAX closed 0.25% higher, the French CAC also gained 0.71% but over in the UK, the FTSE100 fell 0.44%.

In Asia yesterday, China’s inflation rate came in at a decline of 0.8%, which is double what the forecast was and indicated the economy continues to struggle on the economic growth front, post pandemic.

Locally yesterday, markets closed 0.31% higher, led by the information technology sector which saw a rise of 1.18%. This was offset by the energy sector which lost just over half a percent by market close.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open slightly lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a fall of 0.05% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
   
  • Oil is trading up 3.64% to US$76.55 a barrel following Israel’s decision to reject a ceasefire proposal and a decline of 3.15 million barrels in US gasoline inventories last week. 
  • Gold is trading 0.05% lower to US$2033 an ounce and iron ore retreated 0.39% to US$128 a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Cettire (ASX:CTT) and has increased its 12-month price target to $4.80. The buy rating is maintained by Bell Potter following the release of positive results in the first half of 2024 which saw sales revenue of $354m and an adjusted EBITDA of $26m.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS), indicating that the stock price may rise form the close of $3.62 to the range of $4.40-$4.55, on a pattern formed over 46 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed higher overnight as investors react to further earnings season results. The S&P 500 rose 0.82%, edging closer to the 5000 level, the Dow Jones gained 0.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rallied nearly 1%.

In terms of US stocks Microsoft and Nvidia added 2% each with Alphabet and Amazon rising by 1% each.

Over in Europe, markets closed lower following uncertainty over the rate cut outlook. The STOXX600 closed 0.3% lower with most sectors finishing the trading session lower. Oil and gas stocks were down 1%, with auto stocks up half a percent. Germany’s DAX fell 0.65%, the French CAC lost 0.36% and over in the UK the FTSE100 ended the trading session 0.65% lower.

Locally yesterday, markets closed 0.45% higher, with gains led by the utilities and real estate sectors of 1.74% and 1.11% respectively. This was slightly offset by the energy sector which retreated 0.95%.

What to watch today: 

• The Australian share market is set to open flat at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
  • Oil is trading 1.03% higher at 74 US dollars and 7 cents a barrel as investors continue looking at the situation in the Middle East. 
  • Gold is trading flat at 2035 US dollars and 15 cents an ounce as investors await for further clues regarding monetary policy. 
  • And iron ore is trading 1.53% lower at 128 US dollars and 50 cents a tonne

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Australian Agricultural Co. (ASX:AAC) and has increased its 12-month price target to $2. The buy rating is maintained as cattle prices have rebounded strongly and US meat pricing indicators remain fairly firm. AAC is trading at a 40% discount, despite a 50% rally in the heavy steer indicator and an 87% rally in the EYCI post balance date.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Austal Ltd (ASX:ASB), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $2.10 to the range of $2.37-$2.45 on a pattern formed over 33 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed recovered some ground in afternoon trade on Tuesday to close the day mixed across the key indices as investors assessed the latest slew of corporate earnings and tried to gain further insight into the rate outlook out of the Fed. The Dow Jones rose 0.1%, the S&P500 fell 0.2% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.07%.

Technology stocks continue to outperform this reporting season in the US with Palantir Technologies soaring 19% on Tuesday after posting a revenue beat for Q4 while music streaming platform, Spotify, rose 6% after also topping expectations and posting an increase in premium subscribers.

In Europe overnight, markets rebounded to close higher as a rally for oil and gas stocks led to a positive close across markets in the region. The STOXX600 added 0.7% on Tuesday, Germany’s DAX added 0.76%, the French CAC rose 0.65% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 jumped 0.9%.

The local market extended losses into Tuesday’s session as the tech sector, which wears the full brunt of high interest rates, plunged 1.8% after the RBA did not rule out further monetary policy tightening should inflation remain high.

The RBA held the nation’s cash rate at 4.35% for the month ahead at the latest meeting yesterday as was largely expected but investors were more focused on the commentary and outlook out of the RBA to gauge an idea of when rate cuts may be on the horizon.

Inflation remaining at 4.1% is a good signal that it is easing faster than expected, however, it is still too early to assume inflation is under control. The RBA also outlined that higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between aggregate supply and demand, and that the labour market in Australia, despite showing signs of easing, remains tight. Until the RBA sees a trend in inflation drivers coming under control over a material period, the likelihood is that the nation’s cash rate will remain on hold at 4.35%. RBA Governor, Michele Bullock, said she expects the nation’s inflation rate to fall to the target range of 2-3% by 2025.

Against all odds of declining Aussie retail spend, high interest rates and high input costs, the retailers continue to surprise with resilience as investors piled into Nick Scali and Myer on Tuesday. Nick Scali reported NPAT above the guided range for the first half of FY24 despite revenue falling in the high interest rate high cost of living environment. Myer on the other hand reported growth across most metrics and expects a strong NPAT for the first half between $49m and $53m.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of the local trading session here in Australia for Wednesday, the SPI futures are expecting the ASX to open the midweek session up 0.73%.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.6% higher at US$73.23/barrel, gold is up 0.55% at US$2035/ounce, uranium has fallen 5.66% to trade at US$100/pound, and iron ore is flat at US$130.50/tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained a buy rating on fashion jewellery company Lovisa (ASX:LOV) and raised the 12-month price target on the company from $25/share to $26.50 amid the growth opportunity in China representing the largest incremental market identified in the company’s global store rollout strategy. Since opening the first store in China in December, the Chinese fashion jewellery market alone is estimated at a value of US$13bn or 25x that of Australia which makes the market there highly attractive and a strong growth opportunity.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Eagers Automotive (ASX:APE) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 148-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price will rise from the close of $14.50 to the range of $17.20 to $17.80 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street started the week lower across the key indices as treasury yields spiked on investor concerns that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates as much as expected and on the back of weak corporate results released dampening investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones fell 0.71%, while the S&P500 lost 0.32% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.2%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated last week at the FOMC policy meeting that a rate cut in March was unlikely, as a fresh batch of strong economic data supported the need to maintain rates higher for longer to ensure inflation doesn’t rebound.

McDonald’s fell 4% on Monday after releasing a mixed result for Q4 including slower sales which the fast-food giant has attributed to rising tensions in the Middle East.

In Europe overnight markets closed slightly lower across the board as investors digested the idea of higher rates for longer both out of the US and across Europe. The STOXX600 fell 0.14% to start the week lower, Germany’s DAX fell 0.08%, the French CAC lost 0.03%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 dropped 0.04%.

The Asia markets also started the week mixed, where Chinese stocks rebounded from a 5-year low as the People’s Bank of China stimulus came into effect yesterday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended the day flat, Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.54% and China’s CSI climbed 0.65% on Monday.

The local market started the first trading day of the new week almost 1% lower, as materials and utilities stocks weighed on the key index while every sector aside from healthcare ended the day lower.

The sell-off to start the week was mostly attributed to investors profit taking after the ASX soared to a record high close on Friday last week, and as investors await the RBA rate decision announcement today where it is widely expected that Australia’s central bank will maintain the current rate of 4.35% for another month as inflation remains above the target 2-3% range. The latest CPI report released last week indicated Australia’s quarterly inflation is easing faster than expected to a two year low of 4.1% in the 12-months to December.

In M&A news yesterday West Australian gold miner Red 5 announced it is merging with Silver Lake Resources in a deal worth $2.2bn to create a gold mining powerhouse. Under the deal, Red 5 will retain 51.7% of the merged company while Silver Lake will hold the remaining 48.3%. Red 5 shares rallied on the news while Silver Lake Resources fell over 4% on Monday.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of the local trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are expecting the ASX to open Tuesday’s session 0.3% lower on the back of global market turbulence overnight.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.03% higher at US$72.99/barrel, gold is down 0.66% at US$2025/ounce and iron ore is down 2.25% at US$130.50/tonne.
• AU$1.00 is buying US$0.65, 96.41 Japanese Yen, 51.95 British Pence and NZ$1.07.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the rating on LGI Limited (ASX:LGI) from a hold to a buy and raised the price target from $2.32 to $2.55 following the company announcing a long-term gas management agreement with Bingo Industries and its related entity, Dial A Dump, covering Bingo’s Eastern Creek Landfill site in Western Sydney. The initial term of the agreement is 15-years with two options for 5-year extensions. Bell Potter believes the contract further validates LGI’s position as an industry leader in biogas recovery.
• And Bell Potter has increased the rating on Inghams (ASX:ING) from a hold to a buy and raised the price target from $3.95 to $4.90 following emerging tailwinds for the leading poultry producer in Australia including grain and soymeal price declines, increased production and pricing of poultry having peaked.

Wall St closed higher on Friday following the release of quarterly results from Meta which topped expectations. The Dow Jones closed 0.35% higher, the S&P 500 ended the day up, just over one percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rallied 1.74%. 

US unemployment data was released on Friday, with it staying steady at its previous result of 3.7%, 0.1% lower than the consensus of 3.8%.

The US 10-year treasury yield jumped 4.02% after the US government announced that 353,000 jobs were added to the US economy.

Over in Europe, markets closed mix as investors react to a surprisingly strong US jobs report. The STOXX 600 closed flat with auto stocks leading gains at 1.1% whilst oil and gas stocks fell 1.4%. Germany’s DAX closed 0.35% in the green, the French CAC rose 0.05% and over in the UK the FTSE100 ended the day 0.09% in the red. 

Locally on Friday, markets closed 1.47% higher to end the trading week, led by strong results from the real estate and information technology sectors which saw rises of 3.27% and 3.13% respectively. This was slightly offset by the utilities sector which lost 0.41% by the closing bell.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a fall of 0.7% at the open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
  • Oil is trading 2.09% lower to 72 US dollars and 28 cents a barrel as uncertainty in China’s economic recovery adds to the downward pressure.
  • Gold is trading down 0.75% to 2039 US dollars an ounce after strong US jobs data dampens bets an early rate cut.
  • And iron ore is trading up 0.38% to 133 US dollars and 50 cents a tonne. 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Nufarm (ASX:NUF) and has slightly increased its 12-month price target to $6.35. Bell Potter maintains its buy rating as Nufarm is trading at a discount to its global peer group, despite delivering stronger revenue growth rates and having exposure to high growth ESG friendly revenues in biofuels and sustainable omega-3 oils.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal in Helloworld Travel (ASX:HLO), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $2.51 to the range of $2.69-$2.73, on a pattern formed over 44 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

This week was arguably the biggest week on the US reporting season calendar. We saw some of the world’s largest tech companies release quarterly results which impacted global markets. 

Investors were not impressed with some of the Magnificent 7 reports and we detail why. 

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:

• (0:11): what the Magnificent 7 stocks are
• (1:14): investor concerns with Tesla’s warning of headwinds
• (1:36): Microsoft topping expectations across all metrics
• (2:01): disappointing results from Alphabet shares
• (2:15): mixed emotions sparked by Apple, Amazon, and Meta results
• (4:02): expectations from local earnings season, retailers, iron ore miners, and AI
• (6:35): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients
• (7:08): economic data to watch next week.

Wall St has closed higher as Apple and Amazon are set to release their earnings reports after the bell. The Dow Jones closed 0.97% in the green, the S&P 500 rose 1.25% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rallied 1.30%.

In terms of US stocks, tech shares rallied with Apple and Amazon both jumping 1% and 2% respectively. Both are set to release their earnings after market close.

US unemployment data is also set to be released later tonight with a forecast of 3.7%, the same as its previous result.

Over in Europe, markets closed lower after the Bank of England held interest rates steady. The STOXX600 closed half a percent lower, led by mining stocks which fell 1.3%. Germany’s DAX lost 0.26%, the French CAC fell 0.89% and over in the UK the FTSE100 ended the day 0.11% in the red.

Locally yesterday, markets closed 1.20% lower with all major sectors finishing in the red. Losses were led by the financial and real estate sectors of 1.81% and 1.67% respectively.

What to watch today: 

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.36% at market open this morning.
• On the commodity front this morning,
  • Oil is trading down 2.32% to US$74.10 cents a barrel, following the OPEC committee confirming that members are maintaining production cuts. 
  • Gold is trading up 0.90% to US$2055 an ounce, following the release of the latest economic data coming out of the US. 
  • And iron ore is trading 2.21% lower at US$133 a tonne. 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Regal Partners (ASX:RPL), despite slightly decreasing its price target. The buy rating is maintained by Bell Potter, following net inflows in the last quarter of $108 million, largely from the launch of the Regal Resources High Conviction Fund and the Regal Partners Private Fund. With these figures and the company adding new strategies, RPL has become more diversified, hence reducing risk.
• And trading central has identified a bullish signal in Hansen Technologies (ASX:HSN), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $5.18 to the range of $5.47-$5.55 on a pattern formed over 38 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed lower overnight, following the announcement from Federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell that the US central bank will not be likely to cut rates in March. The Dow Jones lost 0.82%, the S&P 500 fell 1.61% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day 2.23% in the red.

In terms of US stocks, Alphabet fell more than 6% following disappointing ad revenue results overshadowed better than expected earnings and sales.

Over in Europe, markets closed marginally higher as corporate earnings continues. The STOXX600 ended the day 0.1% higher with autos stocks up 1.1% whilst retail stocks fell 2.1%.  Germany’s DAX closed 0.40% lower, the French CAC ended the trading day down 0.27% and over in the UK the FTSE100 fell just under half a percent.

Locally yesterday, markets rallied following the release of important inflation data which saw the monthly CPI indicator slow to 3.4% in December, 0.2% lower than the forecast. Markets closed just over 1% higher yesterday with all major sectors finishing in the green. The biggest gains were made by the real estate and utilities sectors which gained 2% and 1.70% respectively.

What to watch today: 

• The Australian share market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a fall of just over 1% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
  • Oil is trading down 2.8% to US$75.67 a barrel after Chinese manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month. 
  • Gold is down 0.11% to US$2033 an ounce, following the announcement that US interest rates will remain steady. 
  • And iron ore is trading 1.81% lower at US$136 a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Select Harvests (ASX:SHV) and has increased its 12-month price target on the almond producer to $4.70. The buy rating is maintained by Bell Potter, following firming in the USD almond pricing and solid crop production forecasts for the upcoming season set to uplift the EBITDA over FY24-FY25.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal in Stockland Corp (ASX:SGP), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $4.56 to the range of $4.74-$4.78 over 25 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

In Europe overnight, markets extended the week’s rally into Tuesday’s session as investors assessed preliminary fourth-quarter GDP figures for the eurozone which came in at a flat reading for the third quarter, indicating the eurozone economy stabilised and narrowly missed a recession. The STOXX600 and Germany’s DAX each rose 0.18% on Tuesday, while the French CAC added just under half a %, and in the UK, the FTSE100 rose 0.44%.

Wall St closed mixed on Tuesday as investors look ahead to the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday US time with markets expecting the Fed to maintain rates at the current level and not cut prematurely. The S&P500 closed flat, the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.3% and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%.

General Motors shares jumped 8% on Tuesday after the automaking giant posted better-than-expected earnings, while Starbucks shares are down in after hours trading after the coffee giant released disappointing earnings results.

In Asia, markets mostly fell on Tuesday with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng leading the losses as markets digested the fallout from the liquidation of embattled property developer, Evergrande.

The local market is hovering in record territory with the ASX closing 0.3% higher on Tuesday as earnings season ramps up and favourable economic data boosts investor sentiment for a soft landing both at home and in the US. The tech sector took strong lead from the tech-heavy Nasdaq overnight as the local high growth sector rose almost 2% yesterday.

While we are hovering around all-time index highs, it is important to realise the market gains are not across the board and some sectors are rallying against market expectations, for example China’s struggling property sector would traditionally have weighed on iron ore prices as the country Australia’s largest iron ore importer, however, the price of iron ore is us around US$135/tonne on expected stimulus out of the Chinese government.

Megaport jumped over 29% during trade yesterday after the cloud connectivity provider said its revenue increased 5% to $48.6m in the latest quarterly update.

City Chic recovered ground yesterday rising 22% as offshore buyers circle the company’s North America business.

Nickel Industries also soared 22% yesterday after the Indonesian-based nickel producer announced an increased dividend and unveiled a share buyback valued up to $151m.

Aussie retail sales data for December out yesterday came in at a decline of 2.7% which was attributed to a few reasons. Firstly, the black Friday and cyber-Monday sales period saw $9bn spent across the four days, a 22% rise on 2022, in a sign that many Aussies snapped up the bargains ahead of the December period. Additionally, the high interest rate environment we are currently in meant a lot of Aussies continue struggling with the high cost of living thus reducing discretionary spend all together, especially in the December period.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of the local trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are expecting the ASX to open the midweek session flat following the mixed session on Wall St overnight.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.4% higher at US$77.81/barrel, gold is up 0.08% at US$2033/ounce and iron ore is up 0.73% at US$138.50/tonne.
• AU$1.00 is buying US$0.66, 97.40 Japanese Yen, 52.10 British Pence and NZ$1.08.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the rating on Mader Group (ASX:MAD) from a hold to a buy and has raised the 12-month price target on the leading provider of specialised contract labour following the release of the company’s December quarter update including revenues of $189.3m, which was driven by the Australia business outperforming the rest of the world with $141m. The company also reiterated FY24 revenue and NPAT guidance and paid down net debt over the period.

Wall Street rose back into record territory on Monday with the S&P500 ending the day up 0.76% at a fresh record high as investors assessed several tech giant earnings reports and ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision announced tomorrow. The Dow Jones ended Monday’s session up 0.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 1.12% as we head into the busiest week of earnings results for the February reporting season. Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon and Google parent company, Alphabet, are all set to release results this week which will likely spark movements for the Nasdaq, while Boeing and Merck also releasing results this week may spark movements on the Dow Jones.

As the Fed’s FOMC meeting kicks off on the 30th January US time, traders are factoring in a 97% chance the Fed will not cut rates at the January FOMC meeting. The current market sentiment is that in order to maintain the current rally on Wall Street, earnings need to meet expectations, the Fed needs to provide outlook and positive guidance on the rate front, and later this week, US jobs numbers will need to remain resilient but not too hot.

Over in Europe, markets started the week mixed ahead of key earnings results being released in the region, as well as economic data and bank announcements released later this week. The STOXX600 rose 0.2% led by oil and gas stocks rising 1%, while Germany’s DAX fell 0.12%, the French CAC lifted 0.09% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day mostly flat.

Across the Asia markets on Monday, stocks closed mostly higher ahead of key fourth-quarter GDP data out of Taiwan and Hong Kong later this week while Singapore’s central bank left its policy unchanged, as expected, on Monday. Chinese authorities have also moved to make it more difficult for investors to ‘short’ Chinese stocks as China’s stock markets have been among the worst performing in the world this year so far amid the ongoing sluggish economic recovery in the region post-pandemic.

Shares in embattled Chinese property developer, Evergrande, halted trading on Monday after Hong Kong’s high court ordered the liquidation of the company following the failure of an 11th- hour restructuring deal over the weekend.

Locally on Monday, the ASX200 rose for a sixth straight session, end the day up 0.3% at the closing bell, led by the energy sector climbing 1.83% on rising tensions in the Red Sea, while technology stocks weighed on the market.

Gold Road Resources tanked over 18% on Monday after the gold producer revealed its latest quarter production was lower QoQ due to delays accessing higher grade ore from the company’s open pit, on top of labour availability impacting the mining rate at the company’s operations.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of the local trading session here in Australia, the SPI futures are expecting the ASX to open Tuesday’s session up 0.5% ahead of December’s retail sales data out later this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading down 1.3% at US$76.98/barrel, gold is up 0.65% at US$2031/ounce and iron ore is flat at US$137.50/tonne.
• AU$1.00 is buying US$0.66, 97.51 Japanese Yen, 51.97 British Pence and NZ$1.08.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained a buy rating on Gold Road Resources (ASX:GOR) but has lowered the 12-months price target from $2.05 to $1.80 after the gold producer released a Q4 CY23 update including production at its 50%-owned Gruyere Gold Mine had been impacted by labour availability issues and the issuance of lowered CY24 production guidance to allow for labour issues.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Mader Group (ASX:MAD) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 99-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $6.65 to the range of $4.20 to $4.60 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed higher across the key indices on Friday as favourable economic data strengthened investor sentiment in the U.S. economy. The S&P500 rose for a sixth straight session, ending the day up 0.53%, the Dow Jones rose 0.64% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 0.18% despite Tesla shares slumping over 13% after the EV giant posted disappointing fourth-quarter results and warned of lower vehicle volume growth for the year ahead.

US GDP data out late last week indicated the world’s largest economy grew at a rate of 3.3% in Q4 which was well above economists’ expectations of a 2% growth and provides further support that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite the currently high interest rate environment.

Personal consumption expenditures data out of the US also pointed in the right direction for economy stability against inflation falling in fresh data out last Thursday. The PCI data, a preferred measure of inflation for the fed, showed an increase of 2% for the latest quarter.

Over in Europe, markets closed at a two-year high on Friday as investors welcomed a slew of favourable economic data, the ECB’s latest rate decision and corporate fourth quarter earnings results. The STOXX600 rose 1.1% on Friday led by household goods jumping 5.2%. Germany’s DAX ended Friday’s session up 0.32%, the French CAC added 2.28%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 rose 1.4%.

Luxury brand retailer LVMH jumped 13% on Friday after posting strong fourth quarter results indicating sales which is a key boost for the luxury market in a time of slowing consumer spend.

The European Central bank also met market expectations late last week by maintaining the ECB interest rate steady at 4% for a third straight time.

Across the Asia markets on Friday, stocks mostly declined as investors piled out of EV stocks in the region amid concerns of slowing demand, while investors also digested inflation data out of Tokyo. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.8% on Friday, China’s CSI ended the day down 0.27%, and Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.34%. Japan’s inflation reading for January came in softer compared to December’s reading at 1.6% growth YoY and below the 1.9% rise economists were expecting.

Locally on Friday, the ASX200 was closed for the Australia day public holiday.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of the first trading session for the week here in Australia, the SPI futures are expecting the ASX200 to open the first trading day of the week up 0.19%.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is up 0.84% at US$78.01/barrel, gold is down 0.07% at US$2018.38/ounce and iron ore is up 1.10% at US$137.50/tonne.
• AU$1.00 dollar is buying US$0.66, 97.43 Japanese Yen, 51.74 British Pence and NZ$1.08.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained a sell rating on Fortescue (ASX:FMG) but has slightly increased the price on the big miner following the release of the company’s December quarter results including iron ore shipments coming in-line with Bell Potter expectations, however, water supply disruptions continued to impact high grade magnetite production at Iron Bridge and FY24 guidance has been lowered again.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Boral (ASX:BLD) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 29-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $5.26 to the range of $4.92 to $4.98 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed mixed overnight as technology stocks were boosted following a rally from Netflix. The Dow Jones ended the session down 0.26%, the S&P 500 finished 0.08% higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.36%.

Netflix shares jumped 10% after they reached an all time high of 260.8 million subscribers with revenue toppling analyst expectations.

Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 rallied 1.15% higher with all sectors but telecoms finishing in the green, following the release of euro zone PMI data showing improved economic activity. Germany’s DAX ended the trading session 1.58% higher, the French CAC gained 0.91% and over in the UK, the FTSE100 finished in the green by over half a percent.

Locally yesterday, markets closed just 0.06% higher with the materials and real estate sector up 1.31% and 0.93% respectively. This was offset by the information technology sector which lost 1.15%.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.2% at the open this morning.
  • On the commodity front this morning,
     Oil is up 1.18% to US$75.23 a barrel, following a larger-than -expected decline in US crude stockpiles. 
  • Gold is down 0.81% to US$2012 an ounce following the announcement of strong PMI data in the US. 
  • And iron ore is trading 0.75% higher at US$133.50 a tonne.

Trading Ideas: 

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Chrysos Corporation (ASX:C79) despite slightly decreasing its price target. The buy rating is maintained as Bell Potter believes that the PhotonAssay technology will command a significant foothold within the large gold assaying market with current lease agreements with some large gold miners providing good near-term deployment visibility.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal in Monash IVF Group (ASX:MVF), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $1.40 to the range of $1.46-$1.48 on a pattern formed over 25 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

The local market advanced 0.51% on Tuesday tracking Wall Street’s rally and led locally by the health care sector jumping 1.02%. Heavyweight healthcare stocks including CSL and Cochlear gained 1.4% and 1.7% respectively while sleep apnoea device maker ResMed lifted 1.9% on Tuesday.

As the recent story on the miner front has gone, Karoon Energy joined the lowered production guidance train yesterday as the company lowered its Brazil production guidance for 2024, blaming operational issues at its Bauna project in November for the downgrade. Investors sold out of Karoon shares yesterday sending the share price down 3.8%.

Judo Bank on the other hand soared 16.8% after the company posted a 24% jump in profit before tax for the first half, driven by continued above-system lending growth, and stronger net interest margins, which have peaked for the big four banks.

NAB Business Confidence data for December released on Tuesday also boosted market sentiment as business confidence rose to -1 point for the month, up from -8 points in November and well above economists’ expectations of -7 points in a sign business conditions are improving.

It was a mixed session on Wall St on Tuesday with the Dow Jones retreating from record territory to close the day down 0.25% following the release of some disappointing earnings results, while the Nasdaq and S&P500 ended the day up 0.43% and 0.3% respectively. Investors used Tuesday’s session to pause and take some profits after it was confirmed the S&P500 officially reached bull market territory and the Dow Jones hit a new record high on Monday. United Airlines rose more than 6% on Tuesday after reporting stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results, however, the airline said it expects a first quarter loss due to the grounding of Boeing 737 Max 9 airplanes across the US.

General Electric shares slipped 1% on Tuesday following the issue of weaker-than-expected guidance, while Johnson & Johnson also dipped over 1% after the healthcare giant said the company’s pharma division sales will be lower in the second half of 2024.

In Europe overnight, markets retreated as euro zone flash consumer confidence data fell to -16.1 points for December from -15 points in January which was against economists’ expectations of an improvement to -14.3 points, in a sign consumer confidence in the European economy continues to slide. The STOXX600 fell 0.25% on Tuesday, while Germany’s DAX and the French CAC each lost 0.34%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day mostly flat.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of the local midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX to open 0.17% higher tracking gains on the Nasdaq and S&P500 overnight.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.74% lower at US$74.2/barrel, gold is up 0.15% at US$2024/ounce and iron ore is flat at US$132.50/tonne.
• AU$1.00 is buying US$0.66, 97.41 Japanese Yen, 51.96 British Pence and NZ$1.08.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained a buy rating on Coronado Global Resources (ASX:CRN) but has slightly decreased the 12-month price target on the leading pure-play metallurgical coal producer following the release of the company’s December quarterly sales that met Bell Potter expectations however, revenue fell significantly short of Bell Potter’s expected US$887m. CRN also reported full year CY23 saleable production was 15.8million tonnes at mining costs of US$107.60 which were 3% and 8% misses on guidance respectively.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Pengana Private Equity Trust (ASX:PE1) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 15-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $1.42 to the range of $1.30 to $1.32 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street opened the new trading week in record territory across two of the three key indices as investors shook off the equity slump that started 2024 lower ahead of key Q4 GDP data out later this week.

The Dow Jones rose 0.36% to trade above 38,000 for the first time during the session, while the S&P500 added 0.22% to reach a new all-time high and the Nasdaq advanced 0.32% on Monday.

The strength in US equities signals a strong bull run that has been in effect since October 2022 and the duration of this rally will depend on whether the US central bank can successfully pull off a soft landing over a recession as inflation continues to cool in the world’s largest economy. Later this week, Q4 GDP data will further indicate how well the Federal Reserve’s rate policy has been at bringing inflation down while maintaining economic stability.

Department store giant Macy’s rallied over 3% on Monday after rejecting a $5.8bn takeover offer while cost-cutting measures through laying off 16% of the workforce sparked a rally for SolarEdge shares.

Over in Europe, markets closed higher in the region to start the new trading week on a positive note as investors await the release of eurozone consumer confidence and monetary policy meeting data out later this week. The STOXX600 rose 0.78% on Monday, Germany’s DAX added 0.77%, the French CAC climbed 0.56%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the session up 0.35%.

The ASX has started the new trading week on a very positive note with the key index closing 0.75% higher on Monday, taking strong lead from Wall Street’s rally on Friday and driven by a tech surge on the local index. The global tech rally that took over markets in 2023 has extended into the new year as earnings growth on the AI and semiconductor front drives investor appetite for the high growth sector. The tech sector also benefits from interest rate cuts as it makes funding growth outlook more affordable for the high growth sector.

Big miners across a few key commodities were hit hard yesterday for a range of reasons. Lithium market darling of the past few years, Liontown Resources tanked over 20% yesterday after the company announced it is reviewing its expansion plans and associated ramp-up of its 

Rare earths producer Lynas Rare Earths also fell out of favour with investors yesterday after releasing a December quarter update indicating output more than halved during the three months due to a temporary shutdown at its Malaysian facilities to complete an upgrade.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of the local trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are expecting the ASX to open Tuesday’s session mostly flat.
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.38% higher at US$75.02/barrel, gold is down 0.3% at US$2023/ounce, and iron ore is up 2.71% at US$132.50/tonne.
• AU$1.00 is buying US$0.66, 97.44 Japanese Yen, 51.89 British pence and NZ$1.08.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has decreased the 12-month price target on Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) from $8.50 to $7.60 however, maintain a buy rating on the leading producer of rare earths following, after the company released a first half trading update outlining production on the weaker side, a slide in revenue, and weaker outlook in amid China’s sluggish recovery.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Washington H Soul Pattinson (ASX:SOL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 124-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $33.21 to the range of $37.30 to $38.20 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Renewed confidence in equities boosted Wall Street to a positive close on Friday, with the key indices shaking off the negative market sentiment that started 2024 in a downturn. The S&P500 rallied 1.23% to a new record high while the Dow Jones added 1.05% and the Nasdaq ended the final trading session of the week up 1.7%. The rally that ended last week in the US overturned the negative start to 2024 taking all three indices into gains for the year so far. Fresh consumer confidence data out on Friday indicated consumers are becoming more confident in both a soft landing and controlled inflation in the world’s largest economy. As earnings season ramps up in the US, we are seeing companies across insurance, financials and other key sectors post better-than-expected earnings which further boosts investor confidence at a time where earnings were expected to begin easing amid slowing economic growth.

Over in Europe, markets closed mostly lower as the World Economic Forum in Switzerland came to an end. The STOXX600 fell 0.3% on Friday while Germany’s DAX closed mostly flat, the French CAC dropped 0.4% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up just 0.04%. The key message out of the economic forum was that while inflation is making good progress in declining to the target 2%, markets pricing in cuts from March is likely premature. UK retail sales data for December also indicated slowing retail spend as consumer sales dropped 3.2% in December, the traditionally high spend holiday trading period, as higher interest rates continue hurting UK consumers.

Locally on Friday, the ASX200 rose 1.02% as investors piled into technology stocks with the sector advancing 3.01% while utilities stocks were the only sector to fall out of favour with investors on Friday. EML Payments led the gains on Friday as the payment services company announced it was shutting down its loss-making PFS card services Ireland business, while Lottery Corp and Jumbo Interactive experienced rallies on news of Australia’s Powerball Jack-potting to the second largest amount in history this week of $150m.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of the local trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are expecting the ASX to open Monday up 0.35% following the strength on Wall Street that ended Friday’s session in gains for 2024.
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading down 1% at US$73.20/barrel, gold is up 0.34% at US$2029.48/ounce, and iron ore is up 0.4% at US$129/tonne.
• AU$1.00 is buying US$0.66, 97.79 Japanese Yen, 52.14 British Pence, and NZ$1.08 .

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has maintained a sell rating on Fortescue (ASX:FMG), however, has significantly increased the 12-month price target on the major miner following a review into Bell Potter’s iron ore price forecasts. Near-term pricing upgrades are driven by unexpected resilience in the face of tight margins for Chinese steel producers, high levels of steel inventories and weak Chinese property sector outlook. Longer term though, Bell Potter has allowed for increased price support from growing demand from Indian steel production, Chinese government stimulus and recovering demand in the US and Europe.
• And Trading Central has identified bearish signal on Monadelphous Group (ASX:MND) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 51-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $14.26 to the range of $12.90 to $13.20 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

This week’s market saw the fluctuation of commodity prices, the release of anticipated economic data, and a notable surge in uranium reaching unprecedented highs. The ASX200 declined 2% (Mon – Thurs), with all 11 industry sectors in the red. Materials and real estate posted the largest losses, while Boss Energy (ASX:BOE) was the best performing stock.

In this week’s wrap, Sophia covers:

• (0:20): why the energy sector retreated this week
• (1:46): the fall in natural gas and iron ore prices
• (2:29): what’s behind the uranium rally
• (3:04): the latest unemployment rate data
• (3:51): the best performing stocks on the ASX200
• (4:30): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients
• (5:04): economic data to watch next week.