Financial Markets

Recorded at the Mises Circle in Fort Myers, Florida, 4 November 2023.

Special thanks to Murray and Florence M. Sabrin for making this event possible.

Robert Murphy explains how traders make money in a world of uncertainty and diabolical risk.

Original Article: Making Money While Making Sense of Chaos: Understanding the World of the Traders

Recorded in Nashville, Tennessee, on September 23, 2023.

In this week's episode, Mark looks at PPI—the Producer Price Index—which provides evidence of the costs for suppliers in various industries, macroeconomic instability, and the potential for economic recovery. Here, very low prices provide the potential for recovery; and rising prices can indicate both recovery in the economy, as well as inflationary pressures moving forward. The Covid Bubble and restrictions caused a 50% increase in producer prices, and since the peak in 2022, PPI has only corrected about 10%. 

Be sure to follow Minor Issues at Mises.org/MinorIssues.

"Producer Price Index by Commodity: All Commodities" (PPIACO): Mises.org/Minor_PPI

Peter Lewin joins Bob to discuss his work with Nicolás Cachanosky on uniting Austrian capital theory with mainstream finance.

Join us in Nashville on September 23rd for a no-holds-barred discussion against the regime. Use Code "HA23" for $45 off admission: Mises.org/Nashville23

Mark Thornton joins Ryan and Tho on Radio Rothbard to take a closer look at the state of the US dollar and how price inflation and economic crises are likely to play out in the months and years ahead. 

New Radio Rothbard mugs are now available at the Mises Store. Get yours at Mises.org/RothMug 

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In this week's episode, Mark looks back at the history of the Inverted Yield Curve. While many observers have now dismissed the significance of the yield curve inversion in 2022—and no recession, yet—Mark shows that the history of the IYC may back a completely opposite interpretation.

Be sure to follow Minor Issues at Mises.org/MinorIssues.

As we enter the dog days of summer, I have heard several media conversations and a few private ones that express exasperation over languishing capital markets. Why do things take so long to unravel? What will happen next? When will X, Y, or Z happen? Why are tech stocks so bullish now? The market takes time to process the information that it already has — or is in "process" — and everyday brings new data.

The Austrian perspective highlights the role of reality in the market process. This is especially important in this period of unprecedented government intervention and the chaos it has generated in markets. 

Be sure to follow Minor Issues at Mises.org/MinorIssues.

While talk of high gas prices is no longer a headline issue, energy economics is still a vitally important aspect of understanding the economy, including the business cycle. Mark explains the basics, tells us where we now stand, and what the major implications are for the near future.

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Be sure to follow Minor Issues at Mises.org/MinorIssues.

Despite the soothing hot air from the White House and Fed officials, the financial system is becoming increasingly fragile and unstable. Maybe all of that intervention the past decade was not wise.

Original Article: "Finance Discovers Sting: "How Fragile We Are""

Mark takes a look at all the wrong predictions of recession in recent years, including those of Austrian School economists. While the MSM and Fed officials try to downplay the coming of a recession, many of the statistics and facts that Austrian consider important are indicating a looming recession, if not a full-blown economic crisis.

Check out Anatomy of the Crash: The Financial Crisis of 2020, edited by Tho Bishop: Mises.org/AnatomyOfTheCrash

Be sure to follow Minor Issues at Mises.org/MinorIssues.

This episode of Good Money with Tho Bishop features guest Ryan Griggs of Griggs Capital Strategies. During the show, Ryan discusses his work with Bob Murphy on an Austrian understanding of inverted yield curves as a signal for recessions and how it differs from the mainstream analysis. He also discusses Nelson Nash's infinite banking strategy as a means for capital accumulation, in contrast to traditional investment approaches.

Ryan and Bob Murphy on the Austrian understanding of inverted yield curves: Mises.org/GM7aGriggs Capital Strategies: Mises.org/GM7b

On this episode of Radio Rothbard, Ryan McMaken and Tho Bishop tackle the debt ceiling debate. As negotiations continue in Washington, the corporate financial press is hard at work warning about the potential for disaster. Ryan and Tho cut through the nonsense to look at the real state of America's finances, potential ramifications in the short term, and US defaults of the past and the inevitable future. 

New Radio Rothbard mugs are now available at the Mises Store. Get yours at Mises.org/RothMug 

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"Three Lies They're Telling You about the Debt Ceiling" by Ryan McMaken: Mises.org/RR_135_A

"Yes, the US Government Has Defaulted Before" by Ryan McMaken: Mises.org/RR_135_B

Be sure to follow Radio Rothbard at Mises.org/RadioRothbard.

In this week's episode, Mark explains why the market for existing homes has been diverging from the market for new houses. The Fed ZIRP, QE and Covid bailouts have locked Americans into their mortgages and low payments, reducing the supply of existing homes. This keeps them off the market and home prices high in an economy that is headed for a recession or crisis. Buyers have been diverted to newly constructed homes where builders have more flexibility to sell and there are no existing homeowners locked into mortgages.

Be sure to follow Minor Issues at Mises.org/MinorIssues.

After a long series of rate hikes, Fed officials and asset markets are expecting a long series of interest rate cuts. This is based on the tried and hue Phillips Curve analysis. In color theory, "hue" is the technical appearance of color that can be described mechanically as a number. Let's hope interest rate expectations are not being distorted by other factors of reality, and that current Phillips Curve model perceptions of hue are also true.

Be sure to follow Minor Issues at Mises.org/MinorIssues.

Bank reserves are seldom mentioned except in cases of bank runs. The other possible mention is all the interest money the Fed pays to banks simply for holding reserves. Mark explains the role of bank reserves in the current "system" and gives a brief explanation of why the Austrian view is better and actually gets the job done.

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Mark discusses something bigger than the Disney layoffs: the Wall Street Journal's April 25 frontpage article on investing in gold. It would seem that the recent rise of the price of gold is the result of tired, dumb, and disillusioned crypto currency investors throwing in the towel to "chase shiny new object—gold." Mark explains that the rational reasons for investing in gold loom larger than the entire Magic Kingdom!

Be sure to follow Minor Issues at Mises.org/MinorIssues.

Ryan McMaken and Dr. Mark Thornton cover the state of the dollar as global reserve currency, and why employers are laying off more and more of their highest paid workers.

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Subscribe to Mark's weekly Minor Issues podcast at Mises.org/MinorIssues.

Be sure to follow Radio Rothbard at Mises.org/RadioRothbard.

Mark looks at the price of Apple stock—one of the best performing stocks over the last quarter century, and one of the largest holdings in stock indexes, mutual funds, and Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. Market watchers have kept a keen eye on Apple as it heads for a new all-time high; but, Mark is concerned that a downturn would have a huge ripple effect on the overall market—possibly equivalent to a tsunami. 

Be sure to follow Minor Issues at Mises.org/MinorIssues.

Like the arsonist who then heroically fights the fire he set, the Fed is increasing its efforts to bail out banks both at home and abroad. This does not end well.

Original Article: "Is the Fed Trying to Bail Out the World? Sure Looks Like It"

This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon.