Hotspotting

In our latest episode of 'Interviews with the 1%', we are excited to feature Simon Pressley of Propertyology. This is an absolute must-see episode with arguably two of the best brains in real estate here in Australia.

In this pre-recorded video Simon shares his strategies, experiences, and lessons learned along the way, giving you an inside look into how he has built his impressive portfolio.

About Simon Pressley

Managing Director of Propertyology and 3-time Australian (REIA) Buyer's Agent Of The Year, Simon Pressley was inducted into the Australian Real Estate Hall of Fame in 2015.

Simon is passionate about helping everyday Australians to build a more sustainable lifestyle through making astute property investment decisions. He (unapologetically) is renowned for challenging conventional wisdom to help people have a smoother journey to a better destination.

A strong lateral thinker and a thought leader, Simon spends several hours everyday studying the property economics of Australia's towns and cities. His strong and passionate opinions are often featured in the media. Do yourself a favour and don't miss this one!

Are you ready to take your property investment game to the next level?

Catch the replay of our exclusive webinar hosted by Tim Graham from Hotspotting, featuring special guests Chris and Zen Christofi from Reventon.

During this webinar, Chris and Zen unveiled the highly sought-after Reventon Formula that has been transforming the lives of Australians since 2005.

This proven formula has helped thousands of individuals grow substantial property portfolios as well as help pay down owner-occupier debts, achieving remarkable results in the process.

Don't miss out on this opportunity to gain valuable insights and strategies from industry experts who have a track record of success spanning close to 20 years.

Australia's #1 Buyers Advocate InvestorKit’s analysis of the fundamentals says Yes!

The best forecasters of real estate trends are the specialists dedicated to researching markets daily.

They’re not bank economists and media commentators who occasionally turn their attention to the housing market.

They’re the full-time dedicated professionals who have picked apart property dynamics to understand the trends and why some locations perform better than others.

They’re people like Arjun Paliwal, director and head of research at InvestorKit.

Bank economists believe one dominant factor dictates property markets: interest rates. And that’s why they always get their forecasts wrong. 

The researchers at InvestorKit have a far deeper understanding of real estate: they have developed their own unique methodology based on 25 core fundamentals. And they have a pressure-based market scoring system to identify which markets will outperform. That’s why their forecasting record puts the big banks in the shade.

Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder speaks to Arjun Paliwal of InvestorKit in this recent webinar. This is priceless information you won’t get anywhere else.

It looks increasingly likely that we have passed the end of the interest rate cycle and that the next change by the RBA is likely to be a REDUCTION in the official cash rate.

In the meantime, mortgage rates will remain high, compared to their levels prior to May 2022, when the first increase by the RBA occurred.

The general consensus from economists – who are, let’s face it, not particularly good with forecasting anything to do with the housing market – is that any reduction in interest rates will be in the second half of the calendar year.

So, for the foreseeable future, we are going to see most investors seeking locations that offer above-average rental yields – to give them the best chance of securing an investment property that pays all or most of the costs of ownership.

This means our special quarterly report, The Pulse, will continue to be one of the most important and relevant among those published by Hotspotting.

The Pulse identifies 50 locations across Australia with affordable prices and above-average rental yields – but, importantly, they are places which also have good credentials for capital growth.

Let’s face it, Australia has many regional towns with cheaper prices and high rental yields, but very little prospect for price growth.

In Broken Hill in the far west of NSW you can buy the average house for under $200,000 and the gross rental yield is around 10%, which may sound appealing, but capital growth prospects are weak. Homes are cheap there for a reason.

With The Pulse, we identify 50 places with growth prospects, as well as prices that are within reach of MOST investors - and rental yields ranging from 5% to 8%.

With The Pulse package you get a spreadsheet summarising the main attributes of the 50 locations, plus a report with key background detail on each of those 50 places.

It’s a product designed for the times we are in, where growth locations offering better than average rental yields are a key metric sought by many real estate consumers.

One of the reasons we seldom find solutions to serious problems in Australia is that we never seem able to have a calm, honest and rational debate about any of the issues.

This is particularly true in the housing market, where housing affordability has been an ISSUE OF ENDLESS DEBATE for decades, without any improvement in the situation.

The rental shortage crisis has been building for years, and there is daily media coverage of the problems, but no one among the political leadership anywhere in Australia has presented any solutions.

The problem is that when politicians get hold of an issue, honesty and integrity goes out the window.

The standard of debate quickly descends to the gutter, as politicians concentrate on point scoring, indulging pet philosophies and finding scapegoats.

Stake-holders in the housing markets don’t help either, by arguing for their vested interests rather than win-win solutions that take into account the needs of all parties.

Within this climate, every year or two the issue of negative gearing is raised as an issue – and for some this is the bogey man that is the source of all evil in the housing market, causing rising prices, high rents and every other thing that people like to complain about.

Negative gearing is arguably the most misunderstood concept among all the things that happen in real estate markets.

This is largely because politicians, particularly the Greens and sometimes the ALP, like to muddy the waters with misinformation, as part of their political tactics.

In the mindset of Greens politicians, anything to do with property investment is the embodiment of evil and needs to be stamped out.

One of the myths about negative gearing is that it’s a tax benefit exclusive to property investors. It’s not – it’s available on other types of investments as well.

Another myth is that everyone who owns an investment property gets tax deductions through negative gearing. That also is very untrue – and I’m an example. I’ve been buying properties since the 1980s and I have never claimed negative gearing tax benefits.

Another furphy about negative gearing is that it’s an Australian thing – that we’re the only country that provides this tax break to investors.

That’s one of the biggest lies perpetrated by those who regard property investors as the source of all evil in the residential property industry.

The reality is that many first-world nations have similar systems to the one in Australia, including Germany, Japan, Canada, Norway, France, the United States, Ireland and Finland, among others.

Other misinformation about negative gearing relate to how much it costs the Federal Budget – always exaggerated quite dishonestly by the Greens and others – and the claim that ALL property investors claim negative gearing benefits.

Perhaps the biggest lie is that negative gearing is responsible for rising prices and poor affordability.

There have been many independent studies by reputable organisations which disprove this throw-away line from those who oppose property investment.

The reality is that MOST buyers in the market, overwhelmingly, are HOME BUYERS - and that they comprise the MAJOR force for competition for dwellings and therefore for upward pressure on house prices.

My estimate is that, currently, less than 15% of buyers in the market are negatively-geared property investors – and it’s difficult to argue that they somehow overpower the other 85% and cause prices to rise.

There are more first-home buyers in the market than there are negatively-geared investors.

But those investors are often blamed for the high prices paid by first-time buyers – but, in reality, expensive housing is caused by the politicians who are adept at blaming others.

It’s really disheartening sometimes to see how bad the media coverage of real estate is in Australia.

The media’s standard treatment of the affordability issue is a prime example. Mainstream media delights in running the story line that first-home buyers are priced out of the market and that’s not even worth trying to find a home.

That story has run pretty much every day, somewhere in the national media, for not just years but for decades.

One particularly ridiculous treatment of this cliché came with a headline that asked whether it was “really possible” to find “a home in an Australian capital city for under $750,000” and a story that suggested that it was almost IMPOSSIBLE to achieve.

This article, like so many on the subject, was shallow, pointless and just plain wrong.

Here’s the reality. The median dwelling price in Perth, according to PropTrack, is currently $640,000 – which means half of all sales are for less than $640,000.

So, can you find a home for under $750,000 in Perth? Obviously, even in the hot Perth market, there are myriad possibilities.

In Adelaide, the median price is slightly over $700,000 – which, again, means half of all homes are selling for less than that figure. No problem finding a home under $750,000 in the South Australian capital.

Darwin? The median price is $480,000.

Hobart? The median there is $670,000.

Even in larger and more expensive cities like Melbourne and Brisbane, the medians are around $790,000 – so also lots of options below $750,000 there as well.

Nationally, according to PropTrack, the median dwelling price is $760,000 – and, to labour the point, that means half of all sales for prices lower than $760,000.

So why would a media outlet that wants to be taken seriously suggest it’s almost impossible to find.

Clearly, this article and its headline, like so many, are inaccurate and blatantly dishonest.

The objective here, of course, is NOT to help people. Media’s objective is NEVER to be helpful.

The goal is to alarm, to dismay, to startle.

Shame on the journalist who wrote it and on the media outlets that published it.

Another of the things media always does, in its efforts to perpetuate the fallacy about affordability, is to completely ignore ATTACHED dwellings as part of the solution.

For young Australians, and many other buyer cohorts as well, units and townhouses are valid options in the search for well-located homes at affordable prices.

Earlier in this commentary, I gave the median dwelling prices for most of the capital cities of Australia and showed that there were lots of options under $750,000.

The exception, of course, is Australia’s most expensive city, Sydney. 

But for buyers happy to consider units and townhouses as potential solutions, even Sydney provides lots of options.

According to PropTrack, the median unit price for Sydney is currently $790,000. Half of all sales have been below this figure, so clearly buyers can find options below that benchmark of $750,000 set by that shallow media publication.

The median unit price across the capital cities of Australia a little under $650,000.

In regional Australia, it’s $555,000.

Why does mainstream media never consider units when discussing housing affordability?

Because it doesn’t suit their preferred narrative, which is to tell people that there are no affordable options anywhere and they should be outraged.

As I said, media’s objective is NOT to be helpful. Their goal is to create clickbait and they’re willing to be dishonest and inaccurate in achieving that.

In our latest episode of Hotspotting Podcast, Tim Graham had the privilege of speaking with Steve Palise, founder of Palise Property and a true master in the world of Commercial Property Investment. Steve walked us through the importance of diversification within our portfolios and how Commercial Property can be a valuable asset in achieving that.

In this episode, Steve shares his extensive knowledge of the differences between residential and commercial property investments, debunking common myths that may have been holding you back. He also discusses the rising trend of commercial property investments and how you can tap into this lucrative market.

Steve's unique journey from being a chartered engineer to a leading figure in property investment and education makes him the perfect guest for our podcast. With well over 1000 properties secured for his clients and a diverse portfolio across Australia, Steve's expertise is second to none.

But the best part is, Steve has generously offered our Hotspotting viewers a free copy of his book on commercial property investment. This is a valuable resource for both new and seasoned investors looking to maximize their returns and diversify their portfolios. Don't miss out on this insightful conversation with one of the industry's best.

Tune in to our latest episode of Hotspotting Podcast and learn how you can benefit from commercial property investments with Steve Palise of Palise Property.

To take advantage of Steves offer, please visit www.paliseproperty.com and use the code: "HOTSPOTTING"

The man in the image behind me is Australia’s most dishonest politician.

I know this is a big statement, because Australian politics abounds with dishonesty, deception and bastardry.

We have a Federal Government which has routinely broken its election promises, including the ones about tax cuts and about taxation of superannuation, and they’ve been in power less than two years.

We have politicians on all sides of the political divide who habitually tell lies in Parliament and in front of the media, as the current Federal Government did on the issue of implementing the promised tax cuts.

They were still lying about that the week before they finally admitted they wouldn’t be implementing the tax cuts as promised at the election and repeatedly since then.

They say we get the politicians we deserve and in Australia we certainly do, because we don’t punish the politicians who lie to us.

But Adam Bandt, the Federal Leader of the Greens, is at another level of dishonesty.

He constantly and consistently misrepresents the housing industry and the people who participate in it, in the interests of achieving media profile and presenting himself as the saviour of those who rent.

He is, in fact, the opposite of their saviour. He’s their nemesis. If his policies on the rental market were implemented, it would turn the current rental shortage crisis into a catastrophe, with vacancies even lower than the current average of just 1%, which is already an historically low figure.

But Bandt appears to believe his stance is a vote winner and he’s happy to lie to achieve his goals.

Every time he speaks on this issue, he seeks to characterise the average investor as someone who owns 6 or 8 properties and wants more.

The official data from the ATO shows that less than 1% own more than five properties. 90% of those who own investment properties own 1 or 2, of which 72% own just one. 

And they’re mostly people on average incomes, trying to improve their financial situation. They are not, as the Greens leader claims, the wealthy elite of the nation with massive property portfolios, ripping off the taxation system.

Bandt also frequently blames investors for high property prices and poor affordability, without presenting any evidence to back up his sweeping statements – and ignoring the reality that investors comprise less than 30% of buyers and that most of the people out there competing for dwellings – and therefore pushing up property prices - are home buyers, including first-home buyers.

There has been a number of independent research studies recently on the major drivers of high property prices – and I emphasise that these are genuine research studies, not sweeping statements by attention-seeking minor politicians or people with a vested interest in the argument.

Reports by the NSW Productivity Commission and by think tank The Centre for Independent Studies have both independently concluded that the biggest reason prices and rents have risen is planning restrictions by politicians and bureaucrats, particularly those that prevent greater density of development in existing suburbs.

These reports argue that rising prices have not been caused by negative gearing or other investor influences, but by planning restrictions which have prevented a good supply of affordable new dwellings.

But the Greens happily ignore these inconvenient truths.

And if Bandt has his way, investors will be hounded out of existence, because property investment will be no longer viable if his policies were implemented.

And the issue that political parasites like Adam Bandt never address is this: if you squash property investors the way he and his cohorts want to, where are the rental properties coming from?

New data from Australia’s best research analyst, Simon Pressley of Propertyology, confirms there are 3.5 million rental homes in Australia - and 3.2 million of them are provided by private investors.

That’s 91.4% of rental homes supplied by everyday mum-and-dad investors. Only 300,000 rental homes are provided by government.

If you drum investors out of existence, as this idiot wants to do, there needs to be a plan for how you replace those three million homes provided by the investors that the Greens want to squash.

Presumably they expect state governments to step up and provide all the rental dwellings that the nation needs.

And the cost of providing 3.2 million rental homes – conservatively – is $1,300 billion. 

Can anyone suggest a state or territory government in this country which has a few hundred billion dollars to spare to replace what is currently provided by mum-and-dad investors.

Mr Bandt – what’s your policy for achieving this?

It’s a rhetorical question – I know you don’t have one.

All you have is a burning and rather unsettling hatred for anyone who owns an investment property.

There are two standout factors for investors to be aware of when seeking capital growth in the current market.

One is that two of the smaller capital cities are the national leaders on price growth and the other is that apartment locations are among the best performers in the nation.

The Perth boom has been well-publicised and many investors are keen to be part of the growth that has been occurring in the WA capital.

In our latest report, we have broadened the scope to include some key regional WA locations which also provide good prospects for growth, as well as affordability and strong rental yields.

The market that has been challenging Perth for the title of national growth leader is Adelaide, which actually out-performed Perth on the increase in median house prices in 2023, according to some of the major research sources.

Adelaide continues to provide broad appeal for investors, as it remains one of the nation’s most affordable city markets, with ongoing strong prospects for price increases as this market is underpinned by Australia’s No.1 economy, according to the State of States report published by CommSec.

Adelaide also has the lowest vacancy rate in capital city Australia, alongside Perth, with significant growth in residential rentals as a consequence.

Our new edition of Top 5 Adelaide Hotspots highlights the areas in the SA capital that we believe have the credentials for ongoing increases in property values.

The big emerging new trend in Australian real estate is the rise and rise of well-located apartments as a target for more and more buyers across the nation.

Many of the key cohorts of buyers – including downsizers, first-time buyers, lifestyle buyers and investors seeking affordability and higher rental yields – are choosing to buy attached dwellings.

And we are seeing a rising number of instances where units are out-performing houses on capital growth. 

In locations right across Australia, there are numerous suburbs where the growth in the median price has been higher for units than for houses, both in the past 12 months and in the longer term.

Apartments are considerably cheaper than houses on land and usually offer significantly higher rental yields, so they are increasingly worthy of consideration by investors.

To help our customers tap into these key growth markets across Australia, we have created a special bundle of three reports – the Perth, Adelaide and national apartments reports – which can be accessed in one purchase at an attractively low price.

Buying this Leap Day Bundle can give you key information about the nation’s leading growth markets and save you over $200, compared to buying each of the reports separately.

In today's podcast, we sit down with Warren Livesey, the founder of Buy Airspace, to discuss this innovative solution in more detail.

Warren shares his expertise and insights on the growing airspace real estate market and how strata owners can benefit from this untapped opportunity. He also delves into the legal and practical aspects of selling airspace, as well as the potential impact on the community and the environment.

Tune in to this enlightening conversation with Warren Livesey of Buy Airspace to learn more about the potential of unlocking the airspace above your property.

Don't miss out on this groundbreaking opportunity to generate revenue and support sustainable development in your community.

The governments of Western Australia and Victoria provide a stark contrast in how to address the chronic rental shortage that is afflicting both states – and every other part of Australia.

WA has adopted the enlightened approach of providing encouragement and incentives for people to buy properties in Perth and make them available for long-term rental – which is the only viable way to solve the shortage problem. 

Victoria, on the other hand, has decided to punish investors for being investors. You could almost believe that the politicians running Victoria believe property ownership is a criminal activity.

This may help to explain why property investors are heavily focused on buying in Perth and key WA regional markets, while investors are more likely to be selling than buying in Victoria. 

The difference is that WA has introduced measures to encourage investors in that state.

One targets those who own a property used for short-term letting, such as Airbnb, with a cash incentive from the State Government to convert to long-term rental for permanent tenants.

Another WA initiative is to encourage property owners to build granny flats to increase dwelling supply, increase urban density and slow urban sprawl.

The relaxed amendments to the state’s Residential Design Codes will boost housing supply by removing the minimum lot size requirements for an ancillary dwelling, commonly known as a granny flat. 

The alternative housing type will no longer require council planning approval and can be constructed on any property lot size. The key stipulations are that new dwellings will need to meet setback requirements and must not exceed 70 square metres in size.

In a further measure to increase dwelling supply, the WA Government is offering residential builders interest-free loans to help them complete unfinished properties.

The Builders’ Support Facility will provide interest-free loans to support eligible residential builders to complete new homes that have been under construction for more than two years.

All of that makes a lot of sense. It adopts the approach of encouraging people to take desired actions by offering incentives. 

The opposite approach is to financially punish people who don’t do what politicians want, even though the actions by property owners are legal and perfectly reasonable.

And that’s the approach taken by Victoria, which has the worst State Government in the nation, although there are plenty of others doing their jobs poorly.

In Victoria, if you’re a property investor, you’re treated on a similar level to drug dealers and mafia figures.

If you own a block of land and haven’t built on it yet, you’ll be punished with a new tax.

A new vacant residential land tax will apply right across Victoria from next year.

If you own any type of investment property, you’ll pay considerably more in land tax, with the State Government lowering the threshold so that everyone who owns an investment property will be slugged with land tax this year.

The Victoria government has also doubled the absentee owner surcharge starting from January this year.

There are also changes to the rules about building new homes in Victoria, which will add an estimated $40,000 to the cost of building the standard new home.

There’s also a windfall gains tax, which means that if you own land and it grows in value, you’ll be slugged with a major tax bill.

And if you’re brave enough to buy an investment property in Victoria, you’ll pay more in stamp duty.

State politicians have attempted to characterise these measures as “incentives” but they’re the opposite of that – they’re punishments.

So what are investors in Victoria doing? They’re selling up and getting out, in droves. 

It means that the chronic rental shortage in Melbourne and other parts of the state is going to get immeasurably worse.

And it’s already serious.

We’re seeing single people in particular being squeezed out of the state’s rental market — and with social housing being inundated with growing demand — there are fears this cohort is being pushed closer to homelessness.

There are now close to 50,000 single-person households on the state’s social housing waitlist — representing 85% of all new applications.

A new report from the Community Housing Industry Association has revealed for every single person they house, Victoria’s social housing waitlist receives another two new applications from individuals.

It’s going to get worse in Victoria, as more and more investors sell up, and fewer and fewer new investors buy in, thereby further reducing the pool of homes available for rental.

And it’s all caused by the nation’s worst state government.

In contrast, in Perth and WA, the situation is likely to improve because investors there are being encouraged and incentivised, rather than treated as a criminal class as they are in Victoria.

Are you feeling overwhelmed by the complexities and uncertainties of the current mortgage market?

Are you unsure about the best strategies for financing your dream home or investment property?

We understand that navigating the mortgage market can be a daunting task, especially in today's rapidly changing economic environment.

That's why we recently held a webinar called "Navigating the Mortgage Market in 2024: What Borrowers Need to Know"

This informative session was hosted by two top experts in their respective fields, Tim Graham of Hotspotting, and Lucky Velasquez, the CEO of Finance Better.

The webinar was held on the 7th of February at 1pm AEDT and covered everything you need to know to make informed decisions when it comes to mortgage financing.

Lucky Velasquez, a highly experienced mortgage broker, shared his expert insights on how borrowers can secure the best mortgage deals and maximise their financial goals.

During the webinar, you will gain valuable insights on:

* The current state of the mortgage market and its impact on borrowers
* Predictions and trends for the mortgage market in 2024
* Best practices for obtaining mortgage financing in the current economic climate
* Insights on Self Employed & SMSF loan markets

This webinar is a must-attend for home buyers, investors, and anyone seeking to understand the current and future state of the mortgage market.

When politicians create an inquiry or a royal commission to examine an important issue, you can be certain that nothing much is going to change.

An inquiry is a device used by politicians to give the appearance of doing something meaningful, while changing nothing.

So the Prime Minister’s plan to have an inquiry into supermarket chains like the thoroughly-dishonest Woolworths, which will take over a year, is a clear signal that there is a serious issue which the Federal Government has no idea how to deal with – and that nothing will change any time soon, if ever.

We’ve seen that with inquiries and royal commissions in the past into a range of issues, including aged care, the behaviour of banks and financial institutions, deaths in custody – and, in the real estate space, housing affordability and the rental shortage.

The most likely outcome of these massive wastes of time and taxpayers’ money is that the politicians involved will scapegoat a section of the community, blame them for the problem and hit them with punitive measures, to give the appearance of actually doing something.

And if they can use the situation to hit the chosen scapegoats with new or higher taxes, then so much the better.

This happened with Federal Parliament a decade ago with housing affordability. Two inquiries were held and it was decided to blame foreign investors for poor real estate affordability. The Federal government hit foreign buyers with massive new taxes and told the public they had fixed the affordability problem.

But can anyone say that housing affordability has improved since then?

Clearly, it hasn’t improved, it has continued to get worse, because foreign investors were never the problem.

What these measures did do was effectively wipe out foreign investment in Australian real estate, which is one of the key reasons why we now have a massive shortage of rental properties.

So now federal politicians have concluded an inquiry into the rental shortage crisis, with rapidly rising rents.

This happened in early December – and if you’re wondering why you haven’t heard anything about it, it’s because there was nothing to say.

What recommendations did the parliamentary committee deliver as a result of the inquiry?

None whatsoever.

The only outcome was that the chair of the committee, a Greens politician, repeated the party’s policy of having a rental freeze across the country.

All that time and energy wasted with no outcome at all – other than a reiteration of Greens policy by one committee member, which has no chance of ever being implemented because it’s a folly that would turn a crisis into a catastrophe.

Residential real estate abounds with myths and misconceptions,  most of them perpetrated by politicians and others with a vested interest in having people believe something that’s not true.

The greatest fallacy of all is that property investors are a privileged class with massive tax and other advantages that distort the market and cause problems like poor affordability and the rental shortage.

In reality, the opposite is true.

Property investors are seriously disadvantaged and discouraged in so many ways, 

that more and more of them have opted out of owning investment properties, which is why we have a chronic shortage of rental properties.

The fallacy about property investors having big tax advantages which should be disallowed was repeated recently by Everybody’s Home, a coalition of organisations which includes The Salvation Army and National Shelter, which proposed the rather horrifying scenario that everyone who rents would be living in social housing.

Under their proposition, private renting would no longer exist and the one-third of Australian households that rent would be living in social housing.

Given that 90% of the dwellings that people rent currently in Australia are provided by private mum and dad investors, this is a rather radical nation-changing quantum shift in the real estate landscape.

Everybody’s Home justifies this wacko idea by claiming that property investors are massively advantaged by negative gearing and a capital gains tax concession.

But the opposite is true. Relatively few property investors access negative gearing benefits 

and there is NO capital gains tax concession – just a method of calculating capital gains tax 

which is an impost paid only by investors, not by home owners.

Indeed, capital gains tax is one of many examples of ways in which property investors are quite seriously disadvantaged.

Investors pay taxes that home owners don’t pay, namely capital gains tax and also land tax, which increasingly is a major deterrent to investment.

Some states, such as Victoria, have introduced new taxes and charges to further alienate investors and make the rental shortage worse in that state.

Investors also pay higher interest rates than home buyers, although there’s no practical reason why that should be so. Investors also pay higher council rates than home owners and higher rates of insurance than home owners.

Indeed, the system is so loaded against property investors it’s miraculous that anyone would undertake is at all.

And, in fact, it’s that very long list of factors where property investors are disadvantaged 

that has created the worst rental accommodation shortage in the nation’s history.

But if the disconnected individuals at Everybody’s Home have their way, it will become immeasurably worse.  There will be no private rentals at all. 

Everyone will be renting from the government or from international corporations.

Australian consumers can be forgiven for thinking that property price data published by research firms like PropTrack and CoreLogic is a matter of fact.

The median house price for a city, you might think, is a matter of fact and how much it has risen or fallen is a matter of fact.

Right? Well, actually, no.

Media reports these figures as if they are absolute fact - but they are not.

Like all real estate data, median prices are rubbery figures.

The median price for a city, and how much it has changed recently, depends on whose figures you believe.

All research businesses have their own methodology for calculating median prices – and the reality is that one research entity has different figures from the next one – so it can get very confusing.

The property website Domain has just published its figures on property prices up to the end of 2023 – and their numbers are starkly different from those published by CoreLogic – and reported by journalists as the gospel truth.

CoreLogic says the national market leader in 2023 was Perth, because its median house price rose 15.6% last year.

But Domain says Perth’s median house price rose 11.9% and wasn’t the national leader at all – that honour was given to Adelaide, where the median house price rose 12.7%, according to Domain.

CoreLogic says Brisbane was the No.2 performer on house price growth last year, with its median price rising 13.3% - but Domain disagrees. It says Brisbane increased only 9.7% - which is quite a substantial difference – and it ranks Brisbane behind Adelaide, Perth and Sydney on price growth last year.

Canberra fell 4.6%, according to Domain, but CoreLogic says it increased 1.0%.

And how much are those median house prices in each of the capital cities?

CoreLogic says the median house in Sydney costs $1.4 million, but Domain says it’s $1.595 million – that’s a difference of almost $200,000.

In Melbourne you pay $945,000 for the average house, if you believe CoreLogic, or $1.047 million if Domain is correct. The disparity there is over $100,000.

Domain says the median house price in capital city Australia now is over a million dollars - $1.094 million, but CoreLogic says $937,000 – a difference of $157,000.

There are also some stark disparities in the price data for apartments.

CoreLogic reported that Perth led the nation on growth in median unit prices, up 12.4% for the year, but Domain claims that Perth rose only 5.2% and was nowhere near the best in the nation, and was out-performed by four other cities.

CoreLogic says Canberra unit prices declined around 1% last year but Domain says they rose 10%, one of the best results in the nation.

How can anyone make sense of these really big differences in the views of two major research sources, who really don’t agree on anything when he comes to prices in our city markets and whether markets have risen or fallen, or by how much.

It’s important to understand that median price figures, like all real estate data, are rubbery figures – and always need to be treated with caution.

And, if you’re wondering where Hotspotting sources its price data, the answer is PropTrack, the research arm of the leading property website, realestate.com.au - which we think has the most reliable and up-to-date data available.

We use PropTrack for the data feed that populates the Research Portal which can be accessed by customers who have one of our memberships.

Perth was undoubtedly the capital growth star of Australian real estate in 2023, with the highest increases in median prices both for houses and for apartments, slightly ahead of Brisbane in both categories.

Perth continues to be a busy market with good buyer demand – but we are now seeing the first signs of moderation in the three-year Perth property boom, as sales activity starts to taper off from the recent highs.

For the first time in three years, suburbs with negative classifications are almost as numerous as the positive ones. And in the latest quarterly edition of The Price Predictor Index, the market-share of Perth suburbs with positive rankings has dropped from 79% to 54%.

While the Perth market remains solid, it’s no longer a national leader in sales momentum – and right now some of the best options for investors in Western Australia are regional cities outside of Perth.

So our new Top 5 Perth and WA Hotspots report features some of the best prospects in Regional WA, as well as locations which continue to show buoyancy in Perth.

Some sectors of the Greater Perth market continue to attract good buyer demand, including the City of Perth LGA, which comprises the inner-city suburbs, reflecting a national trend where inner-city apartment markets in the major cities are attracting high buyer demand.

They include East Perth and West Perth, which both have median unit prices in the $400,000s.

Outer-ring markets offering affordability are still travelling well, including the City of Armadale and the City of Rockingham in the far south of Greater Perth.

Overall, there continue to be some good prospects for buyers in Perth, but you need to be more selective than before – and some of the best bets in WA are now in regional cities.

Melbourne has evolved from a struggling market to a boom one in the past 12 months and is now a national leader on growth momentum.

Almost half of the suburbs in Greater Melbourne are now classified by Hotspotting as rising markets and 87% of them have positive rankings in our Price Predictor Index.

This represents a massive transformation from the situation at the start of 2023. Our quarterly surveys show that the number of rising suburbs in Greater Melbourne has increased from 12 (9 months ago) to 58 (6 months ago) and now to 142 – with rising markets increasing from just 4% of suburbs a year ago to 47% now.

A year ago 67 suburbs in Greater Melbourne were categorised as declining markets; now there are none.

This return to a market characterised by high buyer demand is seen right across the Greater Melbourne area, with the exception of the Mornington Peninsula.

The City of Melbourne, which includes the Melbourne CBD and near-City suburbs, is thriving – but so too are Middle Melbourne precincts like the Whitehorse LGA and the Monash LGA, as well outer-ring areas such as the City of Casey in the far south-east, Wyndham in the far south-west, Melton in the far west and Whittlesea on the northern fringe of the Greater Melbourne area.

Earlier this year we identified the City of Melbourne as a national leader of an emerging trend of rising buyer demand for inner-city apartments.

This survey has confirmed the strength of this market: the 10 City of Melbourne suburbs in our analysis include nine rising markets and one recovering market.

The neighbouring City of Yarra also has busy markets.

The City of Whitehorse figures among the standout areas in the middle-ring areas. The 16 suburbs in our analysis include 10 rising suburbs, led by Box Hill; Mitcham; and Nunawading.

Other Middle Melbourne areas with strong markets include the LGAs of Banyule, Monash and Moonee Valley.

Many of the outer-ring municipalities are attracting high demand. All 15 suburbs in our City of Casey analysis have positive sales activity trends, including 10 classified as rising markets.

The City of Melton in the far west has 16 suburbs on our list and 15 of them have positive trends, including 9 rising markets. 

It’s a similar story with the Wyndham LGA in the south-west and the City of Whittlesea in the north of Greater Melbourne.

Overall, Melbourne markets have transitioned into 2024 with good momentum – and we expect solid price growth in many markets as the year unfolds – certainly much better than the results of 2023.

A recent headline in the Australian Financial Review newspaper summed up why most of the property price forecasts published in mainstream media are hopelessly inaccurate.

The Fin Review headline declared “house price growth to slow as interest rates bite”, following a survey of economists by the newspaper.

Th survey of 30 economists came up with a median predicted rise in house prices nationwide of just 2.5%, with eight respondents forecasting a decline in property values.

The first error is that the Financial Review, which should know better, has sought expert property analysis from people who are not property specialists and certainly not experts on real estate matters.

The next mistake is the one that economists seem destined to make year after year – the belief that the biggest factor, indeed the only factor, which determines house price outcomes is interest rates.

The error is compounded by the belief that interest rates, which did not “bite” in 2023, would suddenly turn around and “bite” in 2024 - even though it’s likely that there will be no further rises by the Reserve Bank and the next movement in the official rate is likely to be downwards.

The inability of economists to understand that their methodology is flawed, and that they need to change, is quite remarkable.

Even more remarkable is the persistence with which newspapers seek real estate forecasts from people whose track records in predicting house prices is so bad it’s embarrassing

So the Financial Review would have us believe that property prices will be subdued because interest rates, which failed to impact throughout last year, will mysteriously impact in 2024.

Barrenjoey chief economist Jo Masters is tipping 4.8% growth nationally, but with Sydney house prices up just 3.8%  and Melbourne up 3.2%.

Oxford Economics’ senior economist Maree Kilroy is tipping a 2.7% gain in 2024.

Jarden’s Carlos Cacho expects prices to rise 5% nationally.

Australian National University associate professor Ben Phillips expects a “sluggish 2024” for property prices, tipping 4% nationally, but only 3% for Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.

But for truly misguided forecasting, there’s nowhere better to go than to AMP chief economist Shane Oliver.

Oliver, who has a long track record of inaccurate property forecasts, says he expects house prices to fall 3–5 per cent this year, but with rate cuts providing relief in the second half.

In other words, it’s all about interest rates, even though the results of 2023 proved that it isn’t.

Nicola Powell, chief of research and economics at property website Domain and therefore more of a property specialist than those institutional boffins, is more bullish and tips 6-8% increases in house prices.

Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee, also a property specialist, is also optimistic and expects price rises this year could exceed the gains of 2023, which averaged around 8%.

Conisbee says: “The main reason is that many of the drivers of price growth this year continue to be in place, particularly low levels of housing supply. In addition, it is increasingly looking like we will see a rate cut in the first half of 2024. This will further fuel pricing.”

The record shows that specialist real estate analysts are far more likely to get it right with their property price forecasts than economists working for the big banks and other institutions.

Fulltime real estate analysts have some claim to being experts, while economists do not – and the proof of that is in the results of recent years.