Lusk Perspectives

Clayton Dube (Director, USC U.S.-China Institute) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss the condition of U.S.-China relations and the latest developments in China’s global influence on trade, supply chain issues, technology, and more. Dube highlights a challenge Chinese officials are watching closely in the coming years: stalling economic growth. To approach the “middle-income” problem, Dube notes the ways in which the government has both relaxed and tightened its grip on markets in an effort to continue the economy’s upward momentum.

Included in the discussion:

Security concerns between the U.S. and China

The important distinction between China’s total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP per capita

How China’s tech rivalry with the U.S. is evolving

Why Chinese firms have overpaid in key U.S. real estate transactions

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Joyce Chang (Managing Director & Chair of Global Research, JPMorgan Chase & Co.) delivers an overview of global economic trends to watch heading into 2023 and beyond.

In the near term, Chang sees a mild recession taking effect in late 2023, with a true “soft landing”, as identified by the Federal Reserve, being unlikely. She notes that overall cycles may be shorter, with a likelihood of 4-year recessions rather than the historic 8 or 10, and markets that rally faster to regain losses.

Included in the long-term outlook are remarks on China’s slowing growth, regions that could benefit from supply chain shifts away from China and nearshoring, and the political divides in the US around ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) projects and investing.

Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) also fields questions on the US housing crisis, how rapidly rising interest rates could affect regional banks and nontraditional finance, the implications of a global aging population, and more.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:48 Presentation

41:08 Q+A

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Lusk Director Richard K. Green delivers highlights from the 2022 Casden Multifamily Forecast.

Before Green gives a breakdown of Southern California multifamily real estate markets, he pauses to discuss four uncertainties impacting the region. Inflation, interest rates, net migration, and the impending recession are all top-of-mind issues that could dilute the forecast’s potency should any of the factors take a dramatic rise or dip.

As for the forecast, Green reviews historical and forecasted data on each market, including overall economic resiliency, net migration since the pandemic began, construction activity, vacancy rates, rent growth, and more. Regions covered include Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego, the Inland Empire, and Ventura.

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An industry panel discusses the changing dynamics of office work in real estate and beyond.

By now, it’s apparent that some version of remote work is here to stay for a dominant number of firms. Remote and hybrid work can solve serious employee issues like flexibility, commute times, and even productivity. However, the new work arrangements are not without drawbacks.

Moderator Mary Lynne Boorn (Associate Professor, USC Sol Price School of Public Policy) invites Allison Lynch (Compass Ventures), Amalia Paliobeis (Senior Director, Portfolio Management, AvantStay), and Brandi Popovich (Vice President, Talent Acquisition, SoLa Impact) to bring insights from their unique perspective on hiring and retention, adaptive management styles, office space, and to discuss lessons learned in distributed work environments.

Included in the discussion:

- The new costs of mandating an entirely in-person work week

- How remote environments impact mentorship

- Crucial in-person activities for employees and employers

- Strategies for preserving company culture

Links to mentioned resources:

The Work/Life Integration Project - http://worklife.wharton.upenn.edu/

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Racial bias in home appraisals and assessments is not just an anecdote. Norm Miller (Hahn Chair & Professor of Real Estate Finance, University of San Diego and Vice President, Homer Hoyt Institute), Ruchi Singh (Assistant Professor, University of Georgia), and Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) discuss the statistically significant racial and ethnic biases in appraisals and tax assessments.

Miller details the benefits of automated valuation models, but he also cautions that using machine learning without human oversight of variables can result in a different set of biases.

Singh shows how assessments are regressive, often resulting in a mismatch of a lower property value with higher property taxes. She also points out contributing factors, including why excluding information like nearby schools or the condition of the home can set the assessments in opposition to appraisals.

More from the discussion:

How to make the assessment process fairer

The importance of loan-to-value ratios in underwriting

Pressure appraisers face in avoiding errors

Why short-term and long-term appraisal models will be required to avoid bias

Relevant links:

New York Times Story: Home Appraised With a Black Owner: $472,000. With a White Owner: $750,000.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/18/realestate/housing-discrimination-maryland.html

Freddie Mac: Racial and Ethnic Valuation Gaps In Home Purchase Appraisals

https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20210920-home-appraisals

William Sprigg’s Perspective:

https://lusk.usc.edu/events/racial-justice-and-economics-crucial-pairing

Freddie Mac’s Appraisal Institute Diversity Initiative:

https://www.appraisalinstitute.org/the-appraisal-profession/appraiser-diversity-initiative/

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Industry practitioners in lending and policy discuss the research and recommendations in the recently released paper “ADU Construction Financing: Opportunities to Expand Access for Homeowners.”

The joint paper, produced by the UC Berkeley Terner Center for Housing Innovation and the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, compiles national data and stakeholder interviews to provide a picture of the hurtles to financing and what barriers could be removed to bring ADU construction to scale.

Included in the discussion:

• Recent updates to Freddie Mac’s ADU policies
• How friction during financing curtails homeowner commitment
• Appraisal gaps in accurately assessing ADU value
• The role contractors play in mitigating financial risk
• The importance of targeted consumer protections as more data emerges

Paper Link:

https://lusk.usc.edu/adu-construction-financing-opportunities-expand-access-homeowners

Introduction and Sponsor Remarks:

• Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate)
• Amy Anderson (Senior Vice President, Wells Fargo Foundation)
• Racheal Meiers (National Leader, Economic Opportunity, Kaiser Permanente)

Federal Context:

• Erika Poethig (Special Assistant to the President for Housing and Urban Policy, The White House Domestic Policy Council)
• Diane Slemmer (Single Family Affordable Lending Manager, Freddie Mac)

Panel Discussion:

• Ben Metcalf (Managing Director, UC Berkeley Terner Center for Housing Innovation)
• Meredith Stowers (Branch Business Development Manager, Cross Country Mortgage, LLC)
• Susan Geddes Brown (Chief Executive Officer, Core SGB, LLC)
• Samar Jha (Government Affairs Director, AARP)

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Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) delivers a presentation on how the ongoing conflict in Ukraine could impact the global economic trajectory as many countries, including the United States, attempt to cool inflation without triggering a recession.

Green dives into more specific factors contributing to the USA’s resiliency or vulnerability to global economic shocks. He shares data on why Cap Rates are likely to increase in the future, the trends economists look for with the revitalization of goods and services spending, how real estate impacts inflation, and which US states boast more robust infrastructure to weather any potential global economic downturns. Green also fields questions on affordable housing, the global aging workforce, commercial mortgage rates, and more.

Austin Beutner (Founder and Chair, Vision to Learn) joins Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) for a discussion on what it takes to accomplish real change in Los Angeles. 

Beutner asserts that the twin forces of leadership and governance have the power to solve many of the ongoing and intensifying issues in the county like homelessness, education, and land use. As Superintendent of LAUSD during the pandemic, Beutner oversaw unprecedented responses like providing free food for the community, securing broadband internet access and devices for students in need, and providing reliable and cost-effective COVID testing for the nation’s second-largest school district. Other school districts in 40 states across the country adopted the models LAUSD pioneered to meet their own community needs.

With that crisis response as the groundwork, Green and Beutner cover such topics as the inherent limits to the Los Angeles mayoral office, what structures hold back the capacity for LA County to respond effectively, and Beutner’s latest project: a ballot initiative to bring the arts to all schools in California, Vote Arts and Minds.

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Dana Goldman (Dean, USC Sol Price School of Public Policy) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to provide a look into how the economics of health care contribute to decisions about health policy and the strides that medicine is still making to close gaps in access to care.

Pulling from a variety of case studies, Dean Goldman shows why markets don’t always work in providing the most cost-efficient care, the economic balance between encouraging innovators and ensuring affordability, and the different ways policymakers and patients determine the value of health. Green and Goldman discuss the evolution of treatments for end-of-life care and the risk of relying solely on philanthropy or intrinsically motivated actors to drive innovation. Goldman also provides potential alternatives to the current system to increase healthcare access and keep medical science moving forward.

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Claudia Sahm (Director, Macroeconomic Research, Jain Family Institute) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to look at the US Economy and how the Federal Reserve is responding to inflation, unemployment, and interest rates.

Sahm cites that the big picture points to economic recovery, especially while the Fed incorporates the principle lesson of the 2008-2009 financial crisis: remove support gradually or risk a stalled recovery. With appointments incoming, Sahm forecasts that the new and historically diverse Board of Governors will continue to press the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. Crucially, Sahm emphasizes that without an end to the pandemic, the economic tides can only change so much, with or without federal intervention.

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Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) highlights data and analysis from the 201 Casden Multifamily Forecast Report. Before Green dives into forecasted rent, vacancies, and deliveries for Los Angeles, Inland Empire, Orange County, San Diego and Ventura submarkets, he offers an economic context for where Southern California stands.

In the context discussion, Green delivers insights into what’s happening with the supply chain in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, why cap rates are so low, and how unemployment and total employment impact the delivery of goods, including multifamily construction.

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Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) moderates a discussion on the growing opportunities PropTech brings to the real estate industry.

Travis Putnam (Founder and Managing Partner, Navitas Capital) provides perspective on the overall momentum of venture capital in the space while Ashley Colella (Senior Product Manager, HqO) and Tyler Scriven (Founder and CEO, Saltbox) offer on-the-ground applications to some of the ways that technology is improving the relationship between property owners and tenants, the increasing role of logistics, and the importance of sorting data into actionable insights.

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Rachel Elias Wein (Founder & Chief Executive Officer, Wein Plus) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss the retail sectors returning as states continue to reopen and vaccine rates climb. Wein traces the pandemic’s impact on retail, including growth in grocery delivery, pet stores, and ecommerce as well as areas that struggled like malls and mid-sized brands. As for the future of retail, Wein notes that an overall decrease in restaurant sales towards lower-cost grocery foods puts more cash in the average consumer's pocket, which may open an opportunity for post-pandemic spending in retail, hospitality, and travel.

Green and Wein discuss how work-from-home will impact retail, particularly weekday spending habits in urban and office hubs as an estimated 20% of the average work week (one day per week) may take place from home. Additionally, they also cover how an aging population’s spending habits may favor geographic regions, the feasibility of transitioning customer-based retail locations to more industrial-style fulfillment centers, and how the ubiquity of malls will continue to decline.

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Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) delivers new data from the Casden Spring 2021 Multifamily Forecast Report. Despite outmigration, California housing prices are still climbing, indicating that the state remains a desirable destination for many. However, California's lack of multifamily housing production remains concerning as sunbelt states with more robust construction pipelines like Texas, Arizona, and Nevada continue to siphon off California residents. Green also asserts that Southern California submarkets will largely be influenced not by whether workers return to the office, but by how often.

Panelists Paul M. Keller (Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mack Urban) and Tony M. Salazar (President, West Coast Division, McCormack Baron Salazar, Inc.) echo the data with anecdotal evidence from inside the industry. Salazar points out that affordable housing subsidies are offered as a flat rate across the US, and as a result those funds continue to go further in markets where housing production is less expensive. Keller remains skeptical about how the state may change and expects more of the same challenges in the future.

Neha Nanda, MD (Medical Director of Infection Prevention and Antimicrobial Stewardship, Keck Medicine of USC) is joined by Scott B. Laurie

(President and Chief Executive Officer, The Olson Company) and Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss the ongoing recovery efforts from COVID-19, how organizations might manage returning to the office, and when everyday life has a chance of achieving a new normal. Nanda also reviews rules of thumb for mask-wearing as well as what vaccine hesitancy may mean for California's herd immunity.

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The State of California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) estimated that 70,000-110,000 new housing units are needed per year to keep housing prices from rising faster than the national average. What are the most important barriers to new housing construction and what can be done about them?

Scholars Evgeny Burinskiy (Ph.D. in Urban Planning and Development, USC Price), Lois Takahashi (Houston Flournoy Professor of State Government and Director, USC Price in Sacramento), and Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) gather with industry experts Bert Selva (President and Chief Executive Officer, Shea Homes) and Dan Dunmoyer (President and Chief Executive Officer, California Building Industry Association) to discuss results from a new survey of California homebuilders, planning commissioners, and housing advocates.

The survey, supported by a grant from the California Homebuilding Foundation, highlights the differences in perceptions stakeholders have about the development review process. Overall, each stakeholder group universally sees both traffic congestion and affordable housing as a crucial hurdle to overcome as California grows.

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Claudia Sahm (Senior Fellow, Jain Family Institute) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to outline the changes in economic policy as the Federal Reserve and Congress have reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic. Sahm, who was inside the Federal Reserve during the Great Recession and recovery, has since devised the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator to help policymakers and economists determine the start of a recession based on unemployment rates.

Sahm points out that economic policy has new goals, new tools are being considered, and change will come with growing pains. As for new goals, Sahm sees interest in concepts like full employment, reducing inequality, and acknowledging racism as harbingers of a new school of thought, and one that is less skittish about inflation as the Fed works to build momentum in economic downturns. The new tools and approaches like the child benefit cash transfers in the latest stimulus package display a shift towards providing direct aid, rather than commonly used tax incentives or other targeted programs. Sahm also acknowledges that change means pain while data catches up to policy for the simple reason that some benefits or programs have never before been attempted in the US.

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Originally recorded for “The Bigger Picture” podcast by the USC Bedrosian Center with host Oliva Olson. Falling is the number one cause of injury and the seventh leading cause of death in adults ages 65 and older. In the newly published “Breaking Down Silos to Improve the Health of Older Adults,” Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center), Patricia Harris (MD and Geriatric Medicine Specialist, UCLA Health), and Anthony Orlando (Assistant Professor in the Finance, Real Estate, and Law Department, California State Polytechnic University and USC Bedrosian Center Faculty Affiliate) make the case for Medicare coverage of home safety renovations to minimize injurious falls. Olivia Olson speaks with the authors about their recent paper and the changes they hope to see in Medicare coverage.

The Bigger Picture:

 https://bedrosian.usc.edu/category/bigpicture/

Lusk Perspectives: 

https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Lois Takahashi (Houston Flournoy Professor of State Government and Director, USC Price in Sacramento) moderates a panel of public and private stakeholders on the roadblocks and success stories of rebuilding housing after fire in California, including Dave Sanson (CEO, DeNova Homes), Geoffrey Ross (Deputy Director, Financial Assistance -- Federal Programs, California Department of Housing and Community Development) and Dan Dunmoyer (President and CEO, California Building Industry Association).

As California currently has a housing crisis due in part to the difficulties of constructing new and large-scale housing in the state, the panel concludes that rebuilding communities impacted by natural disaster remains a challenging process. Sanson points out that though most communities lack the resources to act quickly in rebuilding that requires federal support, a dissonance of unity via local control and NIMBYism also can hamper rebuilding efforts. Ross acknowledges that the federal system is not yet attuned to the unique needs of responding to fire, having focused for some time on flood, tornado, or hurricane relief. Though the question “should we rebuild” in fire-affected areas deserves examining, Dunmoyer identifies that homebuilding is not immune to natural disaster anywhere in California or even the US and emphasizes safe and smart building as a responsible solution.

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Though the end of the pandemic may seem in sight, many questions remain regarding which trends of the past year are permanent. Edward Glaeser (Fred and Eleanor Glimp Professor of Economics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University) and Richard Florida (Professor, School of Cities and Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto and Co-Founder and Senior Editor, Bloomberg CityLab) join Richard Peiser (Michael D. Spear Professor of Real Estate Development, Harvard University) and Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to confer on the potential outcomes for land use in the US.

While both Glaeser and Florida agree that cities at large will return to full strength and influence, they also see individual cities as vulnerable. Regarding office work, Glaeser cites studies that indicate maintaining office culture via remote channels performs well, but growing a company remotely brings significant challenges for both management and employee advancement. Florida sees shifts towards remote and remote-flexible work as a potential revolution in the real estate industry, particularly as amenity-rich smaller cities have an opportunity to build hubs using compact urban models similar to the 15-minute city.

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Record date: 2/25/21