Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

This podcast is sponsored by Supernormal (https://supernormal.com/).

Nigel Toon is the founder of Graphcore, which builds unique IPU chips designed for AI. He sits as a Non-Executive Director on the board of the UK Research and Innovation Council and has sat on the UK Prime Minister’s Business Council. He has been ranked #1 on Business Insider’s UK Tech 100 and named as one of the ‘Top 100 entrepreneurs in the UK’ by the Financial Times. He is the author of the best-selling book ‘How AI Thinks’. This podcast covers: comparing chips: CPU vs GPU vs IPU, data vs information, big data and neural networks, and much more. 

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Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015). His most recent book, The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World in the Free Market Era (2022), was chosen as a Best Book of 2022 by the Financial Times and Prospect Magazine. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. This podcast covers: what Biden has achieved during his administration, shifting power from markets to the state, why Biden is unpopular, and much more. 

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Claudia Sahm is a well-known, highly regarded, Washington-based expert on monetary and fiscal policy and forecasting. She has advised decision-makers at the Federal Reserve, White House, and Congress. She created a widely used and highly accurate recession indicator, the Sahm rule. Sahm is the founder of Stay-at-Home Macro (SAHM) Consulting. Previously, she was a section chief at the Federal Reserve and a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers. Sahm holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan. This podcast covers: whether US fiscal policy worked and whether it caused inflation, the main causes of inflation, why there is no wage-cost inflation, and much more. 

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Melanie Mitchell is one of the leading AI researchers in the world. She is Professor at the Santa Fe Institute. Her current research focuses on conceptual abstraction and analogy-making in artificial intelligence systems. Melanie is the author or editor of six books and numerous scholarly papers in the fields of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and complex systems. Her most recent book is entitled ‘Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Humans’. This episode’s podcast covers: evolution of AI from cybernetics to neural networks and deep learning, how big (labelled) data helped AI, what intelligence is, and much more. 

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Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments. Previously, he ran macro credit research at RBS in London, and served in senior research roles at Goldman Sachs in New York, Bear Stearns in New York and London, and Merrill Lynch in London. In this podcast we discuss: the market being too focused on rate cuts, the importance of the new fiscal regime, inflation risks, and much more. 

Charts mentioned can be found here: https://macrohive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Gallo-charts.pdf

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Henry Ritchotte is the Founder of RitMir Ventures, investing in financial services businesses with a focus on regulatory- and technology-driven business models. Before that, Henry served as Chief Digital Officer of Deutsche Bank, creating the blueprint for a digital challenger bank within Deutsche Bank. Previously, Henry was Chief Operating Officer and a member of the Management Board and Group Executive Committee at Deutsche Bank. This episode's podcast covers: dealing with the 2008 financial crisis, running a bank through the eyes of a COO, why European banks haven’t toppled US banks, and much more. 

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Julia Azari is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Marquette University. She holds a Ph.D in political science from Yale University. Her research focuses on the American presidency, American political parties, political communication, and American political development. She is the author of ‘Delivering the People's Message: The Changing Politics of the Presidential Mandate’. She is a regular contributor to FiveThirtyEight.com, Politico, and The Washington Post. This episode covers: what led to Presidential powers in foreign and domestic policy, the impact of the George W Bush years, how does the constitution constrain presidential power, and much more. 

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Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode covers what has made Dominique switch from being hawkish to dovish on the Fed, low and high inflation regimes, the importance of energy prices and foreign workers, and much more. 

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Chris Rauh is a Professor of Economics and Data Science at the University of Cambridge. He works with complex datasets and applied methodologies, including machine learning and structural modelling. He co-founded conflictforecast.org and has conducted projects for Britain’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, the German Foreign Office, and the IMF. He’s also listed amongst the top 1% of Economists in terms of research output in the last ten years. This episode's podcast covers: the hard problem of predicting conflicts, defining conflicts: wars, civil wars, terrorism, whether the theory of conflict match reality, and much more. 

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John was previously Head of Macro Strategies at Record Currency Management, an $80 billion currency manager. Prior to that, John was Chairman and CIO of Floyd Plus Currency Fund. Before that, John was a Senior Macro Proprietary Trader at Deutsche Bank and Senior Portfolio Manager at the highly successful $3bn Swiss Bank Currency Fund. John’s successful track record in both macro and currency only investing spans over 25 years. John has also collaborated with psychiatrist, trading coach, and best-selling author, Ari Kiev, which led to participation in writing his book, The Psychology of Risk: Mastering Market Uncertainty. This week's podcast covers: finding asymmetric returns, how to deal with losses, meta lessons from 2023, and much more.

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This podcast was recorded in March 2023. Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center at Harvard, where he served for twelve years as the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History. He is the author of sixteen books. This includes the international bestseller, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World. His most recent book is Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe. In addition to his academic work, he is the founder and managing director of Greenmantle LLC, an advisory firm. In this podcast we discuss the proper way to do historical analysis, the new conflict on AI and quantum, geological risks, and much more.

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Bilal is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. Before that, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge. This week's podcast covers: the biggest surprises of 2023, why covering oil and China is important, understanding the drivers of US growth, and much more.

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Liang is currently based in Shanghai and has close to twenty years of market experience as a currency strategist, China economist, portfolio manager, and quant analyst. He has worked for DWS, Sal Oppenheim, and Union Invest. This week's podcast covers: sentiment on the streets of Shanghai, how the China economy performed over 2023, more supply than demand, and much more.

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Shiloh Bates is the Chief Investment Officer of Flat Rock Global in 2018 – a $750mn credit manager. Prior to joining Flat Rock Global, Shiloh was a Managing Director at Benefit Street Partners, and Head of Structured Products at BDCA Advisor. During his 20-year career, Shiloh has worked for several CLO managers and invested over $1.5 billion in CLO securities. He is the author of the recently published ‘CLO Investing – With an Emphasis on CLO Equity & BB Notes’. This week's podcast covers everything to do with CLOs, from definitions throught to their evolution and performance in today's landscape.

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Yesha Yadav is Associate Dean and Professor of Law at Vanderbilt University Law School. She is one of the world’s leading experts on financial and securities regulation. Before Vanderbilt, Yesha worked as legal counsel with the World Bank and before that she practiced regulatory and derivatives law at Clifford Chance. This week's podcast covers key bankruptcies in crypto from Celsius to FTX, crypto regulation and enforcement risks, and the impact of AI in financial markets.

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Greg Lippmann is the Managing Founding Partner and the Chief Investment Officer of the $9.8bn asset management firm, LibreMax. Prior to founding LibreMax, Greg was head of all non-agency RMBS, ABS, and CDO trading globally at Deutsche Bank. His prescient call on the subprime crisis was immortalized in the book and film The Big Short. In the film, Greg is played by Ryan Gosling. In this podcast we discuss: what led Greg to believe there would be a subprime crisis, thinking about convex trades, launching LibreMax, and much more.

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Charlie McElligott is the leading expert on all things positioning, flow, sentiment, and quant factors. He is a Managing Director and Cross-Asset Macro Strategist for the Global Markets Americas business at Nomura Securities International, with more than 15 years’ experience in macro markets. Prior to joining Nomura, Charlie was Head of US Cross-Asset Macro Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Before that, he spent eight years at UBS. In this podcast we discuss: what was behind this year’s rates sell-off, how to think about financial conditions tightening, real money demand for duration, and much more.

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Dr Douglas Greenig is the CEO, CIO, and founder of Florin Court Capital, a systematic, trend-following asset manager uniquely broad in its focus on over 500 markets. Doug has over 25 years of experience in portfolio management and trading. Prior to founding Florin Court, Doug started in markets on Goldman Sachs’ bond arbitrage proprietary desk through the late ‘90s after being hired as an Assistant by Fischer Black. Following this, Doug headed Agency Mortgage Trading at RBS Greenwich Capital, worked as a quantitative portfolio manager at Fortress Investment Group, and then as Chief Risk Officer at London quant firm AHL. In this podcast we discuss: how trend-following works, the importance of volatility scaling to trend-followers, the importance of diversification in gaining an edge, and much more.

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Marc Goldwein is the Senior Vice President and Senior Policy Director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, where he guides and conducts research on a wide array of topics related to fiscal policy and the federal budget. He works regularly with Members of Congress and their staffs on budget-related issues. In this podcast we discuss: the scale of US debt and deficit, how COVID impacted spending, trends in healthcare, social security spending, and taxes, and much more.

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This week we have a special podcast episode for you! Listen to the Macro Hive Pro Markets Webinar and hear the key views of our leading researchers on their respective markets.

This week, US macro expert Dominique Dwor-Frecaut reveals her outlook on the Fed (pre-FOMC), EM strategist Mirza Baig presents his new Emerging Markets Vulnerability and Scenario Analysis report, which reveals the countries most vulnerable to declining global liquidity and higher rates hurdles. We also hear from Henry Occleston on the Bank of England, and Ben Ford explains what he expects from Norges Bank and RBA.

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