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    Money For the Rest of Us

    A personal finance and investing podcast on money, how it works, how to invest it and how to live without worrying about it. J. David Stein is a former Chief Investment Strategist and money manager. For close to two decades, he has been teaching individuals and institutions how to invest and handle their finances in ways that are simple to understand. More info at moneyfortherestofus.com

    enMoney For the Rest of Us483 Episodes

    Episodes (483)

    Which Will Perform Better: Berkshire Hathaway or Utility Stocks?

    Which Will Perform Better: Berkshire Hathaway or Utility Stocks?

    Berkshire Hathaway doesn't pay a dividend, its cash pile keeps growing, and Buffet says it's gotten too big to make acquisitions that can impact the company. Meanwhile, utility ETFs have a steady 3.5% dividend yield. Which will be the better-performing investment going forward?

    Topics covered include:

    • How has Berkshire Hathaway performed relative to the S&P 500 Index and other active managers
    • Why Warren Buffett believes Berkshire's electric utility holdings were a mistake
    • Why California has some of the highest utility rates in the U.S.
    • Why Berkshire Hathaway will eventually need to pay a dividend even though it doesn't currently
    • Going forward, will it be more profitable to invest in Berkshire Hathaway, a utility ETF, or an index fund


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    Show Notes

    Berkshire Hathaway 2023 Shareholder Letter

    The Man Preparing for a Berkshire Hathaway Without Warren Buffett by Justin Baer—The Wall Street Journal

    Warren Buffett admits Berkshire Hathaway’s days of ‘eye-popping’ gains are over by Eric Platt—The Financial Times

    Active vs Passive Investment Management Barometer Report—Morningstar

    Buffett sounds wildfire alarm as utilities industry enters new era by Eric Platt and Myles McCormick—The Financial Times

    Paying for Electricity in California: How Residential Rate Design Impacts Equity and Electrification—Next10

    Investments Mentioned

    Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (BRK.B)

    Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU)

    Related Episodes

    466: Does Dividend Investing Still Work?

    463 Plus: Model Portfolios, UK versus US Valuations, MCI Premium, and MFD Proxy Battle

    444: Natural Disasters: Are They Truly Increasing? 

    242: Should You Let Warren Buffett Manage Your Money?

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    Lessons from Japan's 34 Years of Stock Market Underperformance

    Lessons from Japan's 34 Years of Stock Market Underperformance

    Japan's stock market recently exceeded the all-time high first set in December 1989. That's 34 years of zero price appreciation for the stock market. What drove this lackluster performance, will it continue, and what can we learn from it?

    Topics covered include:

    • How big was Japan's stock bubble, and how much did it contribute to the stock market's underperformance over the past three decades
    • How do Japan's demographic trends impact its economic challenges, and what are the solutions
    • Why Japan's houses are built to depreciate in value
    • What lessons can we learn from Japan's extended bear market


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    Show Notes

    Japan’s Nikkei 225 index eclipses record high after 34 years by Leo Lewis—The Financial Times

    Investors eye further gains after Nikkei breaks through 1989 high by Leo Lewis and Kana Inagaki—The Financial Times

    Related Episodes

    235: What If Home Prices Always Declined

    178: Japan and the Impact of A Shrinking Population

    73 Plus: Investing In Japan

    38 Plus: Time Wealth and Japan

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    Unraveling the Truth About ETFs: Benefits, Analysis, and the Indexing Bubble Myth

    Unraveling the Truth About ETFs: Benefits, Analysis, and the Indexing Bubble Myth

    How the ETF market is changing, why ETFs should be your preferred investment vehicle, and how to analyze ETFs to generate better investment performance.

    Topics covered include:

    • How large have fund flows been away from active mutual funds into ETFs
    • How big are the largest ETF families and how has their market share grown
    • Why the rise of active ETFs blurs the distinction between active and passive investing
    • Why there doesn't appear to be an indexing price bubble, but the rise of passive investing has impacted volatility and decreased stock price informativeness
    • A framework for how to analyze markets and select ETFs for your portfolio


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    Show Notes

    Global Fund Flows Dominated by Fixed-Income and ETFs—Morningstar

    It’s Official: Passive Funds Overtake Active Funds by Adam Sabban—Morningstar

    ETF Issuer League Tables—VettaFi

    Global ETF Market Facts: three things to know from Q3 2023 by Samara Cohen—iShares

    Rise of Passive Investing - Effects on Price Level, Market Volatility, and Price Informativeness by Pawel Bednarek—SSRN

    Investments Mentioned

    SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust (SPY)

    JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI)

    Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV)

    Related Episodes

    426: Which is Best – Active or Passive, ETFs or Funds?

    321: How to Analyze Complex Investments

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    Does Dividend Investing Still Work?

    Does Dividend Investing Still Work?

    Stocks that grow their dividends have outperformed non-dividend-paying stocks over the long-term, but not in the past 5, 10, and 20 years. Why are non-dividend paying stocks outperforming dividend growers, and will it continue?

    Topics covered include:

    • What message do companies say when they initiate, grow, or cut their dividend
    • What is dividend smoothing
    • How have dividend payers performed relative to non-dividend payers
    • Why have non-dividend payers, which are primarily growth stocks, outperformed dividend payers
    • How the payout ratio and return on equity impact dividend strategies
    • What are reasons to include dividend strategies in your portfolio


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    Show Notes

    The dividend puzzle by Fischer Black—The Journal of Portfolio Management

    Can Dividend Investing Rise From the Dead? by Jon Sindreu—The Wall Street Journal

    Einhorn Says Markets ‘Fundamentally Broken’ By Passive, Quant Investing by Matthew Griffin—Bloomberg

    Your Mutual Fund Stinks. Can This Wall Street Invention Change That? by Jason Zweig—The Wall Street Journal

    Asset Camp

    Investments Mentioned

    WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Quality Dividend Growth Fund (DGRS)

    WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend ETF (DEM)

    Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)

    iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV)

    Related Episodes

    429: Which Inflation Protection Strategies Worked and Which Didn’t? 

    342: Is Another Great Inflation Coming?


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    Transforming Financial Regrets into Portfolio Gains: Five Strategies for Navigating Investment Emotions

    Transforming Financial Regrets into Portfolio Gains: Five Strategies for Navigating Investment Emotions

    Humans are wired to feel regret. Here's how to learn from financial regret to become a better investor.

    Topics covered include:

    • What cognitive biases make feelings of financial regret unavoidable
    • We analyze two regret case studies - one from David and one from a Plus member
    • Why do we avoid big regrets but manage through small ones
    • Five cognitive tricks to help manage financial regrets

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    Show Notes

    Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb—Penguin Random House

    Related Content

    448: Where Are Interest Rates Headed Next? Insights from the Jackson Hole Symposium

    408: Is Success Due to Hard Work, Talent, or Luck?

    What Is Risk vs Uncertainty?

    53: Should You Invest In Bitcoin?

    Investments Mentioned

    Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF (BLV)

    Vanguard Extended Duration Trs ETF (EDV)

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    More Ways to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall

    More Ways to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall

    Professional investors and other market participants are lousy at forecasting interest rates. Here are three more options to lock in higher yields today.

    Topics covered include:

    • The risk of buying long-term bonds and ETFs to benefit from falling yields
    • How volatility drag has impacted a long-term bond ETF like TLT
    • Why interest rates won't go up just because the government issues more bonds
    • How CDs, fixed annuities, and zero-coupon bonds work
    • We compare and contrast the seven fixed-income options reviewed in this two-part series


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    Show Notes

    Investors may be getting the Federal Reserve wrong, again—The Economist

    Today's Best Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuities—Immediate Annuities

    Zero-Coupon Treasuries Flew Off Shelves During October Yield Surge by Elizabeth Stanton—Bloomberg

    Investments Mentioned

    iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

    Invesco BulletShares 2029 Corporate Bond ETF (BSCT)

    Related Episodes

    463: How to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall

    418: Bond Investing Masterclass


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    How To Lock In Higher Yields In Case Interest Rates Fall

    How To Lock In Higher Yields In Case Interest Rates Fall

    With cash yields expected to fall, here's how you can keep your portfolio income elevated by purchasing longer-term individual bonds and bullet ETFs

    Topics covered include:

    • How future short-term interest rates, inflation expectations, and term premiums impact long-term interest rates
    • How each of those rate drivers contributed to the close to 1% drop in interest rates in the past three months
    • How yield to maturity is our guide to locking in a fixed return using individual bonds or bullet ETFs
    • How bullet ETFs work and what are some examples
    • What are callable bonds and how to analyze them
    • How to analyze municipal bonds
    • Why we might want to lock in higher yields today


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    Show Notes

    Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond—FRED Economic Data

    Investments Mentioned

    Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)

    Invesco BulletShares 2030 Corporate Bond ETF (BCSU)

    iShares iBonds Dec 2026 Term Trust ETF (IBTG)

    Invesco BulletShares 2031 High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (BSJV)

    Related Episodes

    455: Easier Investing, Richer Life: TIPS Ladders to Annuities

    453: The Price of Money – 700 Years of Falling, Can Interest Rates Keep Rising?

    452: Beyond Stocks: The Allure and Strategy of Credit Investments

    448: Where Are Interest Rates Headed Next? Insights from the Jackson Hole Symposium

    418: Bond Investing Masterclass



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    Now Should You Buy Bitcoin? The Investment Case for the New Spot Bitcoin ETFs

    Now Should You Buy Bitcoin? The Investment Case for the New Spot Bitcoin ETFs

    We explore reasons for buying Bitcoin using one of the new Bitcoin ETFs. We also consider the risks.

    Topics covered include:

    • Why the SEC finally decided to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs
    • What are the fees and structure of these new Bitcoin ETFs
    • How Bitcoin is similar and different from the fiat money system
    • Where Bitcoin fits in an investment portfolio


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    Show Notes

    Statement on the Approval of Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products - SEC

    Coinbase at the Center of Bitcoin ETF Draws Envy and Risks - Bloomberg

    Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

    Related Episodes

    362: Should You Invest in a Bitcoin ETF?

    355: Which Money Is Crazier: The U.S. Dollar or Bitcoin?


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    How Much Should Your Net Worth Grow Each Year?

    How Much Should Your Net Worth Grow Each Year?

    The intricate dance between profession, risk, lifestyle, and luck in determining how net worth grows.

    Topics covered include:

    • The various factors that shape the growth of net worth, including professional choices, risk tolerance, and lifestyle decisions.
    • David Stein's personal account of how these elements influenced the trajectory of his financial growth.
    • Insights into the range of net worth increases observed in 2023, driven by the performance of financial markets.
    • The importance of focusing on one's output quality and personal journey of wealth creation, rather than fixating on comparisons with others' net worth.


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    Show Notes

    Managing Oneself by Peter F. Drucker—Harvard Business Review

    Soloing: Realizing Your Life's Ambition by Harriet Rubin—HarperCollins

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    Should You Be Invested 100% Stocks Before and During Retirement? A Recent Study Says Yes

    Should You Be Invested 100% Stocks Before and During Retirement? A Recent Study Says Yes

    The pros and cons of investing your retirement assets 100% in equity, including half in international stocks. Why the 4% spending rule is too aggressive.

    • Why historical asset class return studies that use only U.S. data are biased
    • How researchers build a broader database to study retirement outcomes and spending rates
    • How a 100% stock portfolio performed compared to balanced portfolios and target date funds
    • Why investors should have half their assets in international stocks
    • Why a 4% spending rule is too high, and what is the alternative


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    Show Notes

    Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice by Aizhan Anarkulova, Scott Cederburg, and Michael S. O'Doherty—SSRN

    The Safe Withdrawal Rate: Evidence from a Broad Sample of Developed Markets by Aizhan Anarkulova, Scott Cederburg, Michael S. O'Doherty, and Richard W. Sias—SSRN

    Related Episodes

    421: Beware of Survivorship Bias When Investing

    326: The New Math of Retirement Spending and Investing

    254: Should You Be 100% Invested In Stocks?

    250: Investing Rule One: Avoid Ruin

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    Listener Q&A on Investing and Living

    Dissecting Stock Returns: Financial Engineering or Genuine Growth?

    Dissecting Stock Returns: Financial Engineering or Genuine Growth?

    Do the impressive returns in public and private markets stem from strategic financial engineering or reflect actual economic growth?

    • How corporate profit growth is linked to economic growth, even though corporate profits are more volatile
    • How interest rates, tax rates, and stock buybacks influence corporate profits and stock returns
    • Why there are fewer publicly traded stocks
    • How the increase in leveraged buyouts has impacted the economy
    • How private equity funds use financial engineering to boost returns


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    Show Notes

    US CEOs start to contemplate Trump, round 2 by Rana Foroohar—The Financial Times

    End of an Era: The Coming Long-Run Slowdown in Corporate Profit Growth and Stock Returns by Michael Smolyansky—The Federal Reserve

    10-Year Stock Market Returns—Crestmont Research

    Stock Average—Crestmont Research

    Stock EPS Reality—Crestmont Research

    What Matters More for Emerging Markets Investors: Economic Growth or EPS Growth? by Jason Hsu Jay Ritter Phillip Wool Yanxiang Zhao—Portfolio Management Research

    Nominal Gross Domestic Product for United States—FRED Economic Data

    The Secretive Industry Devouring the U.S. Economy by Rogé Karma—The Atlantic

    Key Drivers Behind Widespread Adoption Of NAV Financing by Matthew K Kerfoot—Proskauer

    The Inevitable Rise of NAV Financing by Patricia Teixeira and Anastasia Kaup—Ropes & Gray

    HAVE EXCHANGE-LISTED FIRMS BECOME LESS IMPORTANT FOR THE ECONOMY? by Frederik P. Schlingemann and René M. Stulz—NBER

    LBOs Make (More) Companies Go Bankrupt, Research Shows by Alicia McElhaney—Institutional Investor

    Leveraged buyouts and financial distress by Brian Ayash and Mahdi Rastad—ScienceDirect


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    AI's Fork in the Road: Societal Bliss or Existential Threat?

    AI's Fork in the Road: Societal Bliss or Existential Threat?

    One year after the release of ChatGPT, we explore the positive and negative paths AI could take and what individuals can do to assist with a positive outcome.

    Topics covered include:

    • How David uses AI to increase his personal productivity
    • The societal and economic impacts of AI, including its potential to enhance corporate profitability and individual productivity
    • Changes at OpenAI's executive level are examined, highlighting a shift in the organization's direction and philosophy
    • What is Effective Altruism and why is it so focused on the catastrophic risks of AI
    • What are the phases that would lead to a singularity in which AI poses a threat to humanity
    • Why AI is still in the early stages, and how should individuals, businesses and regulators treat it at this point


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    Show Notes

    Everyday Chaos: Technology, Complexity, and How We're Thriving in a New World of Possibility by David Weinberger—Harvard Business Publishing Education

    The economic and market impact of artificial intelligence—Capital Economics

    The Fight for the Soul of A.I. by David Brooks—The New York Times

    How a Fervent Belief Split Silicon Valley—and Fueled the Blowup at OpenAI by Robert McMillan and Deepa Seetharaman—The Wall Street Journal

    A.I. Belongs to the Capitalists Now by Kevin Roose—The New York Times

    The ‘AI doomers’ have lost this battle by Benedict Evans—The Financial Times

    Effective Altruism

    80,000 Hours

    What is the AI alignment problem and how can it be solved? by Edd Gent—NewScientist

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    Using a Checklist Approach To Investing - The Money for the Rest of Us Philosophy

    Using a Checklist Approach To Investing - The Money for the Rest of Us Philosophy

    In this bonus episode, David visits with Bill Yount and Becky Heptig of the Catching Up to Fi podcast in a wide-ranging discussion on investing using a systematic checklist approach.

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    Masterworks – invest in contemporary art

    Masterworks Disclosure:

    “net IRR” refers to the annualized internal rate of return net of all fees and costs, calculated from the offering closing date to the sale date. IRR may not be indicative of Masterworks paintings not yet sold, and past performance is not indicative of future results. See important Reg A disclosures: Masterworks.com/cd 

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    Show Notes

    Catching Up to FI

    Money for the Rest of Us book

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    Is Tourism Harmful or Helpful? The Economic and Cultural Impact of Global Travel

    Is Tourism Harmful or Helpful? The Economic and Cultural Impact of Global Travel

    What are the economic and cultural benefits of tourism. What are the downsides to too much tourism. How to find the right balance.

    Topics covered include:

    • How short-term rentals have changed tourism
    • How cities grapple with too many short-term rentals
    • What is the outlook for short-term rentals
    • How much does tourism contribute to economic output
    • How can tourism be harmful and helpful
    • The example of Cuba


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    Show Notes

    International tourism revenue, percent of GDP - Country rankings—The Global Economy

    U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Account for 2017–2021 by Sarah Osborne—Journal of US Bureau of Economic Analysis

    2023 Short-Term Rental Mid-Year Outlook—AirDNA

    Welcome to Hochatown, the Town Created by Airbnb by Julie Satow—The New York Times

    Short-Term Rentals Attract Private Equity Seeking New Asset Class by Sean O'Neill—Skift

    As Cuba’s economic crisis deepens, citizens scramble to migrate by any means by Dave Sherwood—The Irish Times

    Cuba's worst economic crisis in decades forces people to get creative to survive by Eyder Peralta—NPR

    Related Episodes

    93: Capitalism, Complexity and Cuba

    389: Is Airbnb Intensifying the Housing Crisis?

    449: The House of Cards: Evaluating Economic and Financial Warning Signs


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    Easier Investing, Richer Life: TIPS Ladders to Annuities

    Easier Investing, Richer Life: TIPS Ladders to Annuities

    What are the pros and cons of partially funding retirement expenses with an inflation-indexed bond ladder versus an immediate annuity? There is a big downside to TIPS ladders that many investors don't realize.

    Topics covered include:

    • Why the stock market is more risky than many people realize
    • Is it too late to invest in TIPS as one advisor suggests
    • How TIPS and TIPS ladders work
    • How immediate annuities work
    • The pros and cons of a TIPS ladder versus an immediate annuity


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    Show Notes

    Effortless: Make It Easier to Do What Matters Most by Greg McKeown

    Essentialism: The Disciplined Pursuit of Less by Greg McKeown

    Skin in the Game by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

    Worry-Free Investing: A Safe Approach to Achieving Your Lifetime Financial Goals by Zvi Bodie and Michael J. Clowes

    Safe Haven: Investing for Financial Storms by Mark Spitznagel

    A Complete Guide to Investing in I Bonds and TIPS

    TipsLadder

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    How To Invest Money - 10 Rules of Thumb for Individual Investors

    How To Invest Money - 10 Rules of Thumb for Individual Investors

    We discuss ten rules of thumb for individual investors to consider when saving and investing for and in retirement.

    1. Don't use institutional hand-me-downs
    2. Stay close to home base
    3. Beware of dragon risk
    4. Mind your investment seasons
    5. Catch the popping corn
    6. Watch for market swarms
    7. Track the economic winds
    8. Follow the traffic lights
    9. Diversify your baskets
    10. Don't burn your ships


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    Show Notes

    How to Invest Money E-book

    Related Content

    Complete Guide to Mortgage REIT Investing - Money for the Rest of Us

    Complete Guide to Equity REIT Investing - Money for the Rest of Us

    Episode 451: How Much Should You Invest in Stocks

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    The Price of Money - 700 Years of Falling, Can Interest Rates Keep Rising?

    The Price of Money - 700 Years of Falling, Can Interest Rates Keep Rising?

    Interest rates have been sliding for seven centuries. Dive into the historical forces driving this trend and examine whether the recent interest rate spike is just a blip on the radar.

    Topics covered include:

    • How the supply of savings and the demand to borrow impact interest rates
    • Why have interest rates been falling for over 700 years, and what might have changed recently to propel rates higher
    • How lower rates have helped households increase their net worth and reduce their financial vulnerability
    • What are some lower-risk ways to take advantage of higher interest rates


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    Show Notes

    The Price of Money Is Going Up, and It’s Not Because of the Fed by Jamie Rush, Martin Ademmer, Maeva Cousin, Tom Orlik, and Rich Miller—Bloomberg

    Secular stagnation is not over by Olivier Blanchard—Peterson Institute for International Economics

    A big problem looming for bond markets by TOMASZ WIELADEK—The Financial Times

    Eight centuries of global real interest rates - Paul Schmelzing - Bank of England

    Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2019 to 2022—The Federal Reserve

    A Complete Guide to Investing in I Bonds and TIPS

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    Beyond Stocks: The Allure and Strategy of Credit Investments

    Beyond Stocks: The Allure and Strategy of Credit Investments

    Why investing in non-investment grade bonds, leveraged loans, and preferred stocks is potentially more compelling than investing in common stocks at present.

    Topics covered include:

    • Why Howard Marks told institutional clients to sell stocks and buy high-yield bonds instead
    • The contractual agreements comprising bonds, leveraged loans, and preferred stock give them an advantage relative to common stocks
    • How preferred equity exhibits attributes of both bonds and common stocks
    • What is the expected return and risks for high-yield bonds, leveraged loans, and preferred stock
    • How do we invest in these three asset types


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    Show Notes

    Sea Change - Memo by Howard Marks

    Further Thoughts on Sea Change - Memo by Howard Marks


    Investments Mentioned

    SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)

    iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG)

    Invesco Senior Loan ETF (BKLN)

    iShares Preferred Stock ETF (PFF)

    Virtus Seix Senior Loan ETF (SEIX)

    DoubleLine Flexible Income Fund (DFLEX)

    BlackRock Debt Strategies Fund (DSU)

    Barings Corporate Investors Fund (MCI)


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    How to Invest in Closed-End Funds

    Money for the Rest of Us Closed-End Fund Course

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    How Much Should You Invest in Stocks? The Art of Position Sizing in a Volatile Market

    How Much Should You Invest in Stocks? The Art of Position Sizing in a Volatile Market

    Our allocation to risky assets should vary based on the expected return, volatility, risk aversion, and how much we can earn risk-free. That means we should be taking less risk right now. Listen to learn why.

    Topics covered include:

    • Why there are so few billionaires
    • Why the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management imploded
    • Why how much to invest is more important than where to invest
    • How the Merton share formula can assist with determining what percent of our wealth to invest in risky assets
    • Why are expected outcomes so much greater than the median outcome and why it matters to our investing


    Sponsors

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    Masterworks – invest in contemporary art

    Masterworks Disclosure:

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    Show Notes

    How to avoid a common investment mistake - Buttonwood - The Economist

    The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions by Victor Haghani and James White

    Money For the Rest of Us List of Most Influential Books

    Charles Feeney, Who Made a Fortune and Then Gave It Away, Dies at 92 - New York Times

    Elm Partners Coin Flip Exercise

    Evaluating gambles using dynamics - O. Peters and M. Gell-Mann

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    Why You Should Rebalance Your Portfolio

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