Montel Weekly

Norway installed the least amount of renewables in the Nordic region last year. Ahead of the country’s first ever offshore wind auction, we talk to former energy minister Åslaug Haga about the outlook for new green energy in terms of meeting growing demand. Listen to a discussion on the ways in which country should speed up capacity build and why it is important to avoid the “ketchup effect”.

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel
Guest: Åslaug Haga, Director, Renewables Norway.

European power purchase agreements (PPAs) look set for another bumper year with potential volume of 20 GW. However, there is some market hesitancy amid economic headwinds and flagging wholesale electricity prices. There is also a good chance for Germany to knock Spain off the top spot for PPA growth. Listen in!

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel

Guest: Luca Pedretti, Pexapark 

Over the past decade, Germany has experienced serious energy shocks – many of which were of its own making. For instance, the over-reliance on Russian gas and exiting coal and nuclear power at the same time. However, it has also provided solutions on a remarkable scale. Listen to a discussion  - recorded live at the E-World trade fair in Germany - on how the country dealt with its energy crisis, and the positive progress made since 2022. But how can it speed up investments into the grid as well as into renewables?

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel

Guests: Tobias Federico, Managing Director, Energy Brainpool, a Montel Group company;
Hanns Koenig, Managing Director, Central Europe, Aurora Energy Research; 
Henning Gloystein, Director for Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia Group

European Guarantee of Origin prices have slumped to near 15-month lows amid oversupply and faltering auctions. Listen to a discussion on the measures policy makers need to adopt to boost both transparency and liquidity in this opaque market. Will prices ever reach the highs of 2022 again?

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel
Guest: Daniel Arnesson, Manager, Renewable Power Analysis

The prospect of Trump returning to the White House could shake up the global gas market already on edge from rising tensions in the Middle East. Listen to a discussion about how Trump could reverse President Biden’s pause to LNG projects. Also, the pod highlights why Chinese and German gas demand is returning close to pre-pandemic levels and what this means for imports to Europe as it continues to shun Russian supply.

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel
Guest: Nadia Martin Wiggen, Director, Svelland Capital. 

Are oil and gas markets too complacent about the current geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which accounts for around one third of global seaborne oil trade? Saul Kavonic, senior research analyst at MST Financial thinks so. In this week's pod, he explains how an escalation of tensions beyond the Hamas-Irael war could see the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and propel oil and LNG prices to USD 200/bbl and USD 100/MMbtu respectively – dwarfing the peaks during the 2022 energy crisis.

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel
 Guest: Saul Kavonic, Senior Research Analyst, MST Financial. 

For the first time in 17 years, Germany became a net electricity importer in 2023, largely due to expensive fossil fuels which meant power from its neighbours was cheaper than that domestically generated. Carbon emissions in the country also plummeted but is the drop permanent as the country looks to transform its power system? Listen to a discussion on the choices facing Germany and the pros and cons of splitting its single power market zone.

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel

Guest: Fabian Huneke, Project Lead Energy Transition, Agora Energiewend

Europe’s net-zero targets for 2050 are ambitious, but the roll-out of renewable energy will not be successful without a significant boost to flexibility in power markets. Listen to a discussion on the prospects for batteries, both giga and household, in the energy transition and where the hotspots are in Europe. Could new technology such as sodium-ion be a game changer for energy storage?

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel

Guest: Sam Ebohon, Director Flexibility, Baringa Partners

Cross-border electricity cables are controversial. For some they provide supply security while others believe they increase prices in markets used to low energy costs. Listen to a discussion on the impact the power links had amid a period of extremely cold weather in the Nordic region. In addition, what is the outlook for wholesale prices in the coming weeks and months – could Finland see a return of EUR 800/MWh?

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel

Guest: Sigbjørn Seland, Chief Analyst, Storm GEO; Odd Gunnar Jakobsen, Analyst, Volt Power Analytics.

Germany faces a freeze on many counts over the coming weeks. Firstly, a cold snap is likely to send power prices spiralling. In addition, a budget freeze could hamper the country’s plans to meet its decarbonisation targets after a court ruled the EUR 60bn earmarked for its green transition was illegal. How will Europe’s largest energy consumer afford to keep the lights on?

Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel
Guests: Tobias Federico, Managing Director, Energy Brainpool

End of year round-up, outlook

In the next two episodes we discuss the key energy issues in the year to date with Montel journalists, while also looking forward to 2024. Despite markets having come a long way since the crisis of 2022, they remain jittery and volatile. Part one will focus on Spain, Italy and France, while part two discusses Germany, the Nordic region and global fuel markets.

Host: Richard Sverrisson
Guests (Part one): Enza Tedesco, Editor Italy; Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain; Chris Eales, Editor France; Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France
Guests (Part 2) : Andreas Lochner, Editor Germany; Gert Ove Mollestad, Editor Norway; Olav Vilnes, Editor Norway; Laurence Walker, Deputy Editor-in-Chief; Andres Cala, LNG Correspondent

In the next two episodes we discuss the key energy issues in the year to date with Montel journalists, while also looking forward to 2024. Despite markets having come a long way since the crisis of 2022, they remain jittery and volatile. Part one will focus on Spain, Italy and France, while part two discusses Germany, the Nordic region and global fuel markets.

Host: Richard Sverrisson
Guests (Part one): Enza Tedesco, Editor Italy; Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain; Chris Eales, Editor France; Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France

Gas storage is ample, the weather has remained largely mild and French nuclear availability has returned to pre-Covid levels. However, given the escalating conflict in the Middle East and stalemate in Ukraine, several risks remain ahead of the winter season. Listen to a discussion on the outlook for prices amid a very jittery market. Also, will the EU impose sanctions on Russian LNG?

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel

Guests: Henning Gloystein, Director for Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia;               
Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG.

A bidding error in the Nordic spot power market could be the costliest fat finger event ever in European energy markets – both in terms of financial losses but also the reputational damage for the electricity system and the companies involved. Listen to a discussion on the events that led to EUR -500/MWh power prices and why some Finns treated it as Black Friday.

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel

Guests: Maarit Uusitalo, Manager, Market Solutions, Fingrid ;Riku Merikoski, Senior Power Analyst, Axpo; Gert Ove Mollestad, Editor Norway. 

The UK is reviewing a shift in how it prices electricity from a single wholesale market, with two locational alternatives under consideration: nodal or zonal. This week’s pod addresses the pros and cons of locational prices and whether they will help or hinder the UK’s quest for net-zero emissions.  

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel

Guests: Stephen Woodhouse,  Director Afry Management Consulting and Phil Hewitt, Director, Montel EnAppSys.

World climate negotiators will meet for UN-led talks in Dubai next week in attempt to slow warming that is exacerbating extreme weather from flooding to heatwaves to drought. Could COP28 provide impetus to Europe’s carbon market, where prices have dropped from a record high above EUR 101/t to a one year-low below EUR 75/t amid weak fundamentals and rising geopolitical risks. Listen to a discussion on the outlook for the EU’s key climate policy tool.

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel

Guests: Ingvild Sørhus, Lead Carbon Analyst, Veyt 

The BritNed cable has boosted power trading between the UK and the Netherlands. Listen to a discussion on post-Brexit trading, the impact of more prevalent negative prices and how the platform could set the standard for other interconnectors. Was the power link shackled or freed by the UK’s exit from the EU?

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel

Guests: Nils Teipel, Commercial Operations Manager, BritNed and Daniel Homoki-Farkas, Managing Director, Supercharge.

Debate has begun in Norway on the EU’s fourth energy package, that dates back to 2019. Listen to a discussion on the key elements of the legislation and why they are proving controversial. The perceived powers of the EU regulatory body Acer are of concern to many, but have they been misunderstood?

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel

Guests: Catherine Banet, Professor of Law, Head of Department of Energy and Resources Law, University of Oslo; Olav Vilnes, Editor Nordics, Montel. 

Corporate demand for guarantees of origin (GO) is hotting up and prices could soon be on the rise. Listen to a discussion on the growing importance of GOs not just for generators of electricity but also for a wider range of companies. Could the GO price become higher than the wholesale electricity price?

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel

Guest: Bruno Brunetti, Head of low-carbon electricity analytics, S&P Global Commodity Insights. 

What will be the impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict on an already jittery and volatile gas market? Listen to a discussion of the potential consequences of a cut to Egyptian gas exports amid lower supply from Israel and what the situation will have on plans for a regional gas hub. In addition, what is the possibility of a reduction in LNG supplies through the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz should the war escalate?

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel
Guest: Agata Loskot-Strachota, Energy Policy Research Fellow, Bruegel.