Patrick Boyle On Finance

Elon Musk filed a lawsuit last week against OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman, alleging the company’s deal with Microsoft compromised the start-up’s original mission.  Musk is seeking disgorgement, additional unspecified damages and specific performance. 

Let’s go through these claims one by one, see what legal experts have been saying about the case. We will also discuss the Open AI memo saying that the claims in this lawsuit suit stem from Elon’s regrets about not being involved with the company today and the emails OpenAI released showing that Musk initially supported the plan to create a for-profit entity and wanted a merger that would make Tesla its "cash cow." 

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Patrick Boyle on YouTube

Papers Mentioned:
Copy of the Legal Complaint: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rYCUmwA4Xxpw/v0
Ann Lipton Blog: https://lawprofessors.typepad.com/business_law/2024/03/spins-roulette-wheel-moelis-and-openai.html
Jeremy Tilman Blog: https://lawprofessors.typepad.com/contractsprof_blog/2024/03/musk-v-altman-the-breach-of-contract-claims.html
Matt Levine Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-01/openai-isn-t-open-enough-for-elon
Nilay Patel Article: https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/1/24087937/elon-musk-suing-openai-nightmare-1l-contracts-exam

Office mortgage default rates are rising around the world which could mean problems for the banks, insurance companies and pension funds who lent money to real estate investors.

Let’s discuss the distressed sales of office buildings that have been happening over the last few months, why New York Community Bancorp is down more that 65% year to date, what banking regulators are saying about loan portfolios at large US banks and how banks are hedging their loan books.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Patrick Boyle on YouTube

Papers Mentioned:
Monetary Tightening, Commercial Real Estate Distress, and US Bank Fragility: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4413799
The Secular Decline of Bank Balance Sheet Lending: https://www.nber.org/papers/w32176

A new Harvard Business School study analyzed the impact of giving AI tools, to white collar workers at Boston Consulting Group.

In the study, management consultants who were told to use Chat GPT when carrying out a set of consulting tasks were far more productive than their colleagues who were not given access the tool. Not only did AI-assisted consultants carry out tasks 25 per cent faster and complete 12 per cent more tasks overall, but their work was also assessed to be 40 per cent higher in quality than their unassisted peers.

In today's video we look at the pros and cons of using AI at work.

This Week's Sponsor:
Get Magical AI for free and save 7 hours every week: https://getmagical.com/patrick

Papers Mentioned:
Harvard Paper: https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/24-013_d9b45b68-9e74-42d6-a1c6-c72fb70c7282.pdf
Nicholas Carlini Blog: https://nicholas.carlini.com/writing/2024/my-benchmark-for-large-language-models.html
Nicholas Carlini Quiz: https://nicholas.carlini.com/writing/llm-forecast/
Effects of AI on Employment Paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4527336

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

As the global fight over manufacturing share and exports heats up, with surplus economies doubling down on exports, and deficit economies discussing protectionist strategies, the policies of the largest global economies are in clear conflict. Are trade wars likely, how do they work, and can the global economy regain balance?

Michael Pettis Books:
The Great Rebalancing: https://amzn.to/4bDIGKf
Trade Wars Are Class Wars: https://amzn.to/3I2xHMH

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

Adam Neumann has been trying to buy WeWork - the company he cofounded out of bankruptcy — allegedly with the help of the hedge fund manager Dan Loeb of Third Point.

Neumann’s new real estate company "Flow" has sent a letter to WeWork requesting that they consider its takeover approach. Flow has already raised $350 million from the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, disclosed in the letter that Loeb’s Third Point would help finance a transaction. 

The Financial Times contacted Third Point to verify their involvement in the deal and were told that the fund had only held “preliminary conversations with Flow and Adam Neumann about his ideas for WeWork.” They went on to say that they have made “no commitment to participate in any transaction.”

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

A Delaware court this week voided Elon Musk’s $55.8 billion dollar pay deal with Tesla. The voiding of these stock options erases about a quarter of Musk’s current wealth.
The judgement came in response to a shareholder lawsuit launched by Richard Tornetta who owned nine shares in the company.  Judge Kathaleen McCormick found Tesla directors, who negotiated the pay package, were "perhaps starry eyed" due to Musk's "superstar appeal" and did not adequately inform shareholders.

Elon Musk announced after the judgement that he would seek to reincorporate Tesla in Texas, a state that he believes could be more hospitable to his way of doing business than Delaware. We’ll dig into whether that would work near the end of the video.

Roger Lowenstein - Origins of the Crash: https://amzn.to/3Ou3OIQ

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

Jesse Lauriston Livermore was a famed American stock trader known for his huge successes and devastating failures in the early 20th century. Starting as a "chalkboard boy" in a Boston brokerage, he became hugely wealthy as a trader first in "bucket shops" and then on the exchange in New York.  Livermore made millions in the Panic of 1907, the roaring 20's and in the 1929 market crash. His experiences are chronicled in the classic "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefèvre.

Despite his legendary wins, Livermore went bankrupt numerous times and faced personal challenges, culminating in his tragic suicide in 1940. His legacy endures as an influential figure in financial history.

Books:
Jesse Livermore – The Man Who Sold America Short by Tom Rubython: https://amzn.to/3vWOrCA
Jesse Livermore – Worlds Greatest Stock Trader by Richard Smitten: https://amzn.to/47QO3Tm
Jesse Livermore – Speculator King by Paul Sarnoff: https://amzn.to/47R9jIv
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre: https://amzn.to/496874U
How to Trade in Stocks by Jesse Livermore: https://amzn.to/4baKom1

Online Sources
New York Times Time Machine: https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/browser
Time Magazine Archives: https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,847596-2,00.html
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Livermore

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

Big startups are shutting down. More than 3000 private venture backed startups failed in the last year.  Of the startups raising money, 19% were funded at a lower valuation than in prior funding rounds. 38% of VCs disappeared from dealmaking last year and more than a quarter of a million workers at tech companies lost their jobs over the same period. US corporate bankruptcy filings closed out 2023 with the most filings since 2010. The year has been described as a mass extinction event for startups in the press.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

How much do you need to earn per year to be in the top 1%?  The answer to this question varies depending on if you are asking about the 1% in a given country or globally?

In today's podcast we discuss how much you have to earn and how wealthy you have to be to be considered in the top one percent.  We discuss the careers and lifestyles of the one percent.  We look at inequality research to understand if inequality is actually growing as much as researchers like Thomas Piketty say it is.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

How is China able to sell European drivers so many cheap cars? Customs data shows that Chinese EV shipments to the European Union have increased by 361% since 2021.

All over the world, Chinese automakers are taking market share which is threatening European automakers. 

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

Dozy Mmobuosi, the founder and CEO of Tingo Mobile has been accused by US Regulators of running a "staggering fraud."

Tingo Mobile claimed to provide mobile phones to rural farmers in Nigeria and build a fintech super app. It quickly grew into a multibillion-dollar empire with a listing on New York’s Nasdaq stock exchange.

Dr Dozy, the London-based tycoon attempted to buy the Premier League football team Sheffield United but struggled to prove his financial resources.

It turns out that Mmobuosi’s businesses, as they were commonly understood, may never have existed.

The SEC has accused the Nigerian businessman Mmobuosi Odogwu Banye – of perpetrating an ongoing fraud of “staggering” proportions.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

In this week's podcast we look at the biggest financial news stories of the year, bank runs, The Elon Musk - Mark Zuckerberg fight, The Sam Bankman Fried Trial and much more.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

Higher mortgage rates should be expected to depress the housing market, and the US has just seen one of the steepest rate increases in history.

Would-be homebuyers are facing massive sticker shock, with measures of affordability worsening at the fastest pace on record.  The US real estate market has frozen up with the volume of new sales slowing at a faster pace than even during the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

Does this mean that home prices are about to collapse?  Will we see a repeat of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008?

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

Argentina’s new president, Javier Milei describes himself as an anarcho- capitalist and says that he will take a chainsaw to the Argentine economy. He has campaigned that he will dollarize the economy and shut down the central bank.  What does this mean, and could it work?

Argentina mostly exports agricultural commodities but used to be one of the wealthiest nations in the world. Decades of economic mismanagement have destroyed the economy and created a web of artificial price and exchange rate controls that have produced huge distortions.

Milei is described as a libertarian economist whose ideological heroes are Milton Friedman, Robert Lucas, Murray Rothbard and Margaret Thatcher.
 
Milei campaigned on promises of taking a chainsaw to the state, closing down the central bank and replacing the peso with the US dollar. But he has made a dramatic shift towards moderation since winning the election.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

Elon Musk told advertisers who have halted spending on X due to his endorsement of an antisemitic post to “go f**k” themselves, in an unhinged interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin (who Elon calls Jonathan). Musk said that a recent exodus of big brands was “going to kill the company, and the whole world will know the advertisers killed the company”.

Musk, who bought Twitter (which he has renamed X) for $46.5 billion dollars (including transaction costs) in October 2022, dismissed the idea that he wanted advertisers to return. “If somebody is going to try to blackmail with advertising, blackmail me with money, go f**k yourself,” he said. “Go. F**k. Yourself. Is that clear, I hope it is.”

Twitter makes almost all of its revenue from advertising and is saddled with $13 billion dollars of debt.  Is Twitter about to go bankrupt?

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

Fired CEO Sam Altman will return to run OpenAI - the company he co-founded, following days of speculation and turmoil at the leading generative artificial intelligence start-up.

In a dramatic reversal, Altman, who was fired by OpenAI’s board of directors last week, will be reinstated under the supervision of a new board.

Greg Brockman, the co-founder and president who quit the company on Friday after Altman was fired, will return alongside him. 

Under an “agreement in principle”, Altman will serve under the supervision of a new board of directors.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

When Mao Zedong died in 1976 his successors seized the opportunity to reassess the wisdom of Chinas rigid commitment to Marxist doctrine.  With Deng Xiaoping in charge, China scoured the globe in search of economic expertise to put China on the path to domestic prosperity and ultimately global economic power.

The World Bank describes China’s growth as “the fastest sustained expansion by a major economy in history,” In today's video we try to understand what changes were made that allowed China to grow to become the second largest economy in the world.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

Book Recommendations:
Unlikely Partners by Julien Gewirtz: https://amzn.to/3R4L9oB
Modern China by Rana Mitter: https://amzn.to/46gUZYV

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a wake-up call to all western governments. Alongside China’s rise, the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran and instability in Africa, the new era of global conflict has forced governments around the world to commit to more defense spending.

Will voters around the world accept the high price of military deterrence?

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

Sign up for Compounded Daily at this link: https://www.compoundeddaily.com/

Since founding Bridgewater nearly 50 years ago, Ray Dalio has become one of the world’s richest investors. He is widely credited with having predicted and profited from both the 1987 crash and the 2008 financial crisis. He is the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund and is one of the most successful businessmen alive, yet he professes to be seeking something more meaningful than just money or business success.

According to Dalio, his main interest, over the last twenty years is to lead others toward “meaningful lives” and “meaningful relationships” through the application of his principles.  He has written a number of books and given a Ted Talk on this topic.

Rob Copeland is a journalist at the New York Times and was previously the longtime hedge fund beat reporter at The Wall Street Journal. In his new book “The Fund” he smashes through some of the mystique built up around Ray Dalio in recent years.  He argues that very little of Dalio’s success is due to his widely promoted “Principles” and can be better explained by his ability to befriend influential people and impress them with his broad knowledge of the world, his skill at getting good publicity, and his early investment success.

Rob interviewed hundreds of Bridgewater employees in order to write this unauthorized biography that shows Ray Dalio in a very different light.
Dalio declined to be interviewed for the book and has threatened a lawsuit against Rob and his publisher.  In today's video I interview Rob to hear his account of life at Bridgewater and whether he believes Ray Dalio’s principles are worth following.

The Fund by Rob Copeland: https://amzn.to/40qLMMk
Principles by Ray Dalio: https://amzn.to/46WTO22

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

A jury has found Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of all seven criminal counts against him. The FTX founder faces a maximum sentence of 115 years in prison.  In today's podcast we discuss the findings of the trial and speak with Tiffany Fong who has been there in person reporting from the courthouse in New York along with people like Michael Lewis.

Tiffany Fong YouTube Channel
Tiffany Fong Twitter

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle