The Agenda

In the latest episode of the Agenda, Juliet Samuels interviews Dr Michael Foran, lecturer in Law at the University of Glasgow and Senior Fellow at Policy Exchange on the controversial Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill. Dr Foran explores some of the most pressing themes in his recent Policy Exchange report, which is available to read here.

https://policyexchange.org.uk/publication/the-scottish-gender-recognition-reform-bill/

This report demonstrates that the Scottish National Party’s (SNP) Gender Recognition Reform Bill, which aims to change the law regulating legal sex change for those born or resident in Scotland, will fundamentally alter the law relating to equal opportunities across the United Kingdom. The report argues that the United Kingdom Government can – and should – make a section 35 order under the Scotland Act 1998 to block Royal assent for the Bill, which would prevent it from becoming law.

Head of Economics Connor MacDonald speaks with two Policy Exchange experts on the Autumn Statement. Ruth Kelly, former Secretary of State for Transport, and Dr Gerard Lyons, leading economist discuss why the Chancellor made the decisions he did, what was missing from the Autumn Statement, and whether or not markets will be reassured. The Chancellor also said that he wanted monetary and fiscal policy to “work in lockstep” – what does this mean? What should the aims of fiscal policy right now be? What room to manoeuvre does the Government have in the face of an external shock? Policy Exchange’s economics experts discuss all this and more.

Head of Economics and Social Policy Connor MacDonald leads a discussion with Policy Exchange's two economics Senior Fellows, Dr Gerard Lyons and the Rt Hon. Ruth Kelly about the Government's new Economic policy. They explore why the Government felt it needed to change course, what difficult decisions need to be made, and what this means for the Bank of England, monetary policy and the future growth prospects of the UK economy.

Head of Economics Connor MacDonald joins Senior Research Fellow in Energy Alex Simakov to discuss why the Government has changed its policy on the Energy Price Guarantee. They look at why the Energy Price Guarantee was such a potential problem, what Government could do instead, and why Policy Exchange’s plan for targeted relief, the Tiered Energy Relief Scheme, offers a blueprint for a support mechanism that subsidises demand but also leaves households who consume a large amount of energy exposed to the price mechanism.

Alex Simakov and Connor Macdonald explore the causes of the European Energy Crisis and the Truss Government's plan to support energy consumers through the winter. How exactly did Britain find itself in such a precarious situation, the importance of further measures on conservation and demand reduction, and what the new Chancellor's mini-budget means for the future of our energy security.

The Government’s fiscal statement amounts to one of the most substantial changes in fiscal policy in decades. Connor MacDonald, Head of Economics, discusses this radical shift of direction, and potential gamble, with two leading economic thinkers: Ruth Kelly, former Secretary of State for Transport and Economic Secretary to the Treasury; and Dr Gerard Lyons, leading economics commentator and prominent advocate for supply-side reform. They discuss the current fiscal stance, which supply-side reforms need to be prioritised, and where Government can be even more ambitious.

Germany’s “Zeitenwende” about turn on defence spending and energy dependence on Russia has been described as the most significant shift in the country’s geo-political stance since the end of the Cold War. But will it last? And should it really be seen as so unexpected given the liberal hawk stance of the Green party since the Joschka Fischer era? If Germany really is serious about playing its full part in the western alliance both politically and militarily what will that mean for its export-led economic model and its relations with China? And should Germany have its own nuclear weapons? These and other questions are touched on in a pithy 35 minute discussion chaired by Policy Exchange’s David Goodhart, former FT German correspondent, in conversation with Jochen Buchsteiner, London correspondent of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Hans Kundnani, director of the Europe programme at Chatham House, and Daniel Johnson, former Telegraph correspondent in Germany and editor of The Article.

Policy Exchange’s Economics team have studied and digested Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s 2022 Spring Statement. They offer their analysis in our latest podcast. Head of Economics Connor MacDonald discusses the economic impact of the Statement and the wider state of the economy with Policy Exchange Senior Fellow Rt Hon Ruth Kelly - Economic Secretary and then Financial Secretary to the Treasury in the Blair Government – and Policy Exchange Senior Fellow Dr Gerard Lyons – Chief Economic Adviser to Boris Johnson as Mayor of London.

Policy Exchange Director Dean Godson interviews Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, previously Commander of the US Army Europe who advised the Government of Ukraine on its defences, in the latest of our podcasts on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. General Hodges argues that Russia – with its failure to quickly conquer Ukraine – has already lost the war. General Hodges argues that the West can be more robust in its response to Russian aggression without risking nuclear war.  He notes that the Russian army is less strong than its size suggests, evidenced by it now calling on Chechen and Syrian fighters as well as on what was the Wagner Group.  General Hodges argues that there are grounds for optimism.

Policy Exchange is hosting a series of podcasts on Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its broader consequences.  In this episode Michael Mosbacher asks Rt Hon Lord (Gavin) Barwell – Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Theresa May from 2017 - 2019 – about how No 10 responds to a sudden crisis:

What happens at No 10 when there is a sudden crisis?

Using Skripal as case study. Then what decisions will be made where in such a crisis/Department vs No 10. Has British intelligence focus enough on threats from Russia?

Did we do enough after the Skripal poisonings?

What else did we consider doing? Should we have boycotted the 2018 World Cup in Russia, just months after the Skripal poisonings?

Was this considered. Russia has been heavily involved in in the Syrian civil war, supporting Assad.

Did Russia's role in opposing ISIS in Syria mean we somewhat pulled our punches in dealing with Russia elsewhere?

Was the potential threat and corrupting influence of oligarchs in London taken seriously enough in your time at No 10?

What more should we have done?

Did No 10 take seriously the possibility that in light of Skripal poisonings, other deaths of Russian and Russian connected figures in London might have involved the FSB. Is it worth reopening these cases?

In your time at No 10 was a full Russian invasion of one of its non-Nato neighbours war gamed?

Policy Exchange Director Dean Godson discusses US attitudes to NATO and the future of the Republican Party with Mary Kissel, former Senior Adviser to US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and before that a senior editorial writer at the Wall Street Journal. Mary Kissel discusses:

1. The rise of a broad bipartisan consensus on how to respond to Russian aggression against Ukraine
   
2. Why voices on the Right such as Tucker Carlson questioning US support for Ukraine are outliers representing few in the Republican Party
   
3. Donald Trump’s actual attitude to Nato
   
4. Whether the Republican Party is moving in a more isolationist direction
   
5. The prospects at the mid-term elections in November

Policy Exchange is hosting a series of podcasts on Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its broader consequences.  In this episode Michael Mosbacher asks Rt Hon Amber Rudd – Home Secretary from 2016 - 2018 – about how the UK responded to the 2018 Skripral poisonings in Salisbury, whether more could have been done then, what should be done now and how Britain should respond now to Ukraine's refugee crisis. Rudd is supportive of our sanctions against Russia and thinks they should be tougher - but also argues that they are unlikely to be effective as Putin, just like Iran, is unlikely to be responsive to the effect of sanctions. Some of the questions answered by Rt Hon Amber Rudd :

• When did you learn about the Skripal poisoning? Did the news come as a shock or were we expecting that something like this might happen?

• Did the Government do enough to respond to Russia’s aggression in the aftermath of the Skripal poisoning?

• After the Litvinenko & Skripal poisonings, how concerned should we be about further Russian attacks on British soil?

• With your experience of Russia’s actions, could the West have been better prepared for Russia’s invasion? Did we sleepwalk into disaster?

• There have been a series of deaths on British soil of opponents of Putin, eg Boris Berezovsky. In light of what we now know should these cases be reopened?

• Has Brexit meant that there is less intelligence cooperation with other European countries? If there had been more such cooperation would we have been better prepared?

• Russia has been seen as an ally in the War on Terror. Was this a mistake? 

Policy Exchange is hosting a series of podcasts on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its broader consequences.  In this episode Michael Mosbacher asks Julie Marionneau – Research Fellow on Policy Exchange’s Judicial Power Project, and previously a Major in the French Airforce and a Legal Adviser to Nato on the Law of Armed Conflict – about the law as it relates to Russia’s invasion:

1. Ukraine has armed much of its civilian population. What is the legal status of those Ukrainians who may fight to defend their country but are not part of a regular army or militia? Does the Law of Armed Conflict apply to them?

2. There are calls for NATO to impose a No Fly Zone over Ukraine at the request of the Ukrainian government. Would this amount to an act of war against Russia?

3. Could Putin be indicted for war crimes?

4. Some British people are volunteering to fight for Ukraine. Is this illegal?

Policy Exchange is hosting a series of podcasts on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its broader consequences.  In this episode Michael Mosbacher asks Air Marshal Edward Stringer (Ret’d) – Senior Fellow at Policy Exchange and former Director General of the Defence Academy and Assistant Chief of the Defence Staff – about the military consequences of the invasion and what its likely repercussions are:

1. Is this a military crisis Britain had planned for? Had we war gamed it?

2. Russia has made nuclear threats. How seriously should they be taken? Are they just sabre rattling or are the risks high due to Russia’s strategy risks?

3. Is the use of battlefield nuclear weapons by Russia a real possibility?

4. Britain’s nuclear strategy – does the fact that we purely rely on Trident for our nuclear deterrent limit our room for manoeuvre?

5. What does the war mean for last year’s Integrated Review? Do its conclusions need revisiting?

6. Is a No Fly Zone over Ukraine militarily feasible and would it make a real difference to the war?

In this podcast, Policy Exchange experts discuss the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on the UK’s energy sector. They also discuss options to increase home-grown energy supply, including fracking, nuclear, and offshore wind farms.

Panel:

• Juliet Samuel, Senior Fellow at Policy Exchange and Telegraph columnist

• Josh Buckland, Senior Fellow at Policy Exchange, Partner at Flint Global

• Benedict McAleenan (Chair), Senior Fellow at Policy Exchange, Managing Partner at Helmsley Energy.

1. How we are now in a different world from two weeks ago;
   
2. What we have learnt about Russia’s military capabilities;
   
3. How this crisis might escalate;
   
4. Whether it would be wise for Poland to give planes to the Ukrainian air force;
   
5. Moldova – why it is feeling threatened and why Moldova is fast becoming the most likely scene of escalation;
   
6. How the conflict might be deescalated and come to an end.
   

Policy Exchange is hosting a series of podcast over the next two weeks on Russia’s war on Ukraine. In the first episode Ben Judah – bestselling author of Fragile Empire: How Russia fell in and out of love with Vladimir Putin and This is London: Life and Death in the World City and Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council – discusses both Britain’s clampdown on Russian oligarchs and how Europe is heading for its largest migration since World War II, with up to 1.5 million refugees having already left Ukraine. Judah argues that sanctions against Russian oligarchs might achieve little in terms of helping Ukraine – but nevertheless it is vitally important as it will wean London’s banks, lawyers and financial institutions off their addiction to Russian money.  The rise of so-called Londongrad has been deeply corrupting – and cleaning it up is important for the sake of Britain.

The migration from Ukraine will only speed up if Russia’s onslaught on Ukraine continues. As with all migrations many of those leaving are likely never to return and the country will lose many of its young and able.  Ties of kinship in Poland and Hungary mean that their government’s reaction to the new influx will likely continue to be much more welcoming than they were to Syrian refugees. Many Ukrainians will move to western Europe and Judah argues that Britain should make a warm offer to Ukrainian refugees who have the potential of making a considerable contribution to British life. If Russia has its way, Ukraine will become a country denuded of youth and talent – but Judah argues that this suits Putin’s gameplan just as it did with his earlier wars in Chechnya and the Donbas. All Putin’s actions suggest that he is keen for those to leave who will not accept Russian dominance.

Policy Exchange has set out a pragmatic proposal for reform. Addressing issues around integration, workforce, digital transformation and scaled provision, we argue that a new model of general practice is required to better meet the needs of patients and the taxpayer – so it feels increasingly at their service.

Policy Exchange's Connor MacDonald and Benjamin Barnard discuss Levelling Up, the centre-right's changing approach to devolution and tax competition with Michael Mosbacher.