The Prediction Trade

The Prediction Trade goes back to Canada with Toronto-based public affairs consultant, political commentator, writer and speaker Tasha Kheiriddin. 

After successfully forecasting that Canada would hold a national election in 2021, Tasha shares her calls for the number of Liberal and Conservative seats in Parliament, as well as who she thinks will come out of the election as Prime Minister.

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TPT’s theme song: Where Do We Go From Here? (Death)

There’s a new prediction game in town: Kalshi, the first federally regulated events exchange. Kalshi is now taking trades on whether it will rain in NYC, when Kanye West’s next album will drop, how many people will get vaccinated this week, and all sorts of other outcomes. 

Prediction market traders, investors and gamblers alike have been waiting for this moment. The Prediction Trade sits down for an exclusive interview with the market’s two founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara.

Sign up for Kalshi’s public beta at Kalshi.com. 

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TPT’s theme song: Where Do We Go From Here? (Death)

From Tennis Betting Tidbits to The Prediction Trade, Jon Reid reveals how he bets on tennis—and his bets speak for themselves. With more than 1,300 wagers in 2020, he netted nearly 80 units with average odds of +144. But today the Canadian tennis handicapper is on TPT to talk about this year’s French Open, sharing his forecasts for the semifinal and final matchups.

The Prediction Trade is brought to you by Luckbox magazine. 

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TPT’s theme song: Where Do We Go From Here? (Death)

When there's a first-rate sporting event, you can count on TPT to bring you the most qualified experts to handicap the betting opportunities. But what about those other sporting events? In this episode, TPT calls on Hard Factor’s Wes Shephard to weigh in on the upcoming Mayweather-Paul boxing spectacle, the Fat Boy Summer movement and crypto trading altcoins. 

TPT Alert: Wes rings the bell with his prop bets.

Show Outline:

• Fat Boy Summer
• Sippin’ crypto and Eatin’ Dips 
• How to bet the fight

Follow Wes Shephard on Twitter @hardfactorwes & @hardfactornews, hardfactor.com and patreon.com/hardfactor

The Prediction Trade is brought to you by Luckbox magazine. 

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TPT’s theme song: Where Do We Go From Here? (Death)

A veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker and expert motorsports handicapper takes TPT behind the bookmaking curtain to handicap the upcoming Coca-Cola 600 and the Indy 500. Micah Roberts takes on a range of subjects including Phil Mickelson’s big payoff, Billy Walters’ big bets, how to wager on motorsports, the importance of pole positions and whether the Monaco Grand Prix is boring.

The Prediction Trade is brought to you by Luckbox magazine. 

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TPT’s theme song: Where Do We Go From Here? (Death)

Two horse-racing veteran analysts handicap the 147th Kentucky Derby. Molly Jo Rosen is first out of the gate with a lesson on how to bet smart on big race days. Noel Michaels takes us around the turn with a look at this year’s strongest contenders. Then, both guests go head-to-head on the home stretch sharing the five horses they will each be betting on. 

Spoiler Alert: Three horses end up on both experts’ shortlists!

Show Outline:

How to Bet Big Races (Molly Jo Rosen at ~5 minutes)

A look at the Field (Noel Michaels at ~25 minutes)

The Pros Place Their Derby Bets (Rosen and Michaels at ~45 minutes)

The Prediction Trade is brought to you by Luckbox magazine. 

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TPT’s theme song: Where Do We Go From Here? (Death)

“I am 100% certain!” That’s how confident National Post columnist Tasha Kheiriddin is on this episode’s political wager. Kheiriddin dissects the Liberal Party of Canada’s recently revealed budget and discusses the likelihood of a Canadian election taking place in 2021, resulting in a high-conviction even-money betting opportunity.

The Prediction Trade is brought to you by Luckbox magazine. 

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TPT’s theme song: Where Do We Go From Here? (Death)

Anthony Scaramucci returns to The Prediction Trade with a shocking prediction on the fate of NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Scaramucci shares his 2021 bitcoin price forecast as well as his thoughts on NY Mayor Bill de Blasio, NY Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, NY Attorney General Letitia James and Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz.

The Prediction Trade is brought to you by Luckbox magazine. 

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Open your PredictIt account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 

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TPT’s theme song: Where Do We Go From Here? (Death)

Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty makes his return to the TPT studio, this time to discuss more than just politics. The golf-betting pro gives a master class on betting on the Masters, including the five players who are the best bets to don the coveted green jacket. He also reveals his two favorite longshot bets.

Political bettors will get their fix with a discussion about the markets wagering on Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's chances to remain in office amid growing national discontent and scandals.

The Prediction Trade is brought to you by Luckbox magazine. 

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Open your PredictIt account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20  

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TPT’s theme song: Where Do We Go From Here? (Death)

Season 2 of The Prediction Trade kicks off with lifelong New Yorker James Altucher.

James, an entrepreneur, investor, chess master, comedian, author and host of “The James Altucher Show” podcast, shares his contrarian analysis and best bets in the prediction markets for New York’s gubernatorial and mayoral races, as well as the fate of Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

In addition to a surprise prediction for New York’s upcoming gubernatorial race, James talks about the backstory behind his viral New York Post op-ed “New York City is dead forever,” and what it’s like to be attacked by Jerry Seinfeld.

The Prediction Trade is brought to you by Luckbox magazine. 

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TPT’s theme song: Where Do We Go From Here? (Death)

The Prediction Trade - coming soon! Each episode features pros from the prediction trade: gamblers, traders, investors, data freaks, probability geeks and super-forecasters. We also introduce experts with proprietary forecasting models and insights into the outcomes of prediction market events. Whether you live to bet or bet to live, join us for the next episode of The Prediction Trade.

Rutgers University's Harry Crane discusses his new research comparing the accuracy of polling models with the prediction markets following the November election, giving FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver another reason to troll tweet.  Also, Trafalgar Group's Robert Cahaly tips off TPT to some potentially market-moving poll results he is about to release about the upcoming Georgia Senate races. Follow Harry Crane on Twitter @HarryDCrane, visit Researchers.One for his Models vs. Markets white paper and check out his website at harrycrane.com.   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT Sign up for the TPT newsletter, ask questions and follow us: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp   Politicians in My Eyes (Death, 1974) is the theme song of The Political Trade. Courtesy of Bank Robber Music.

In this special episode, Libertarian Party presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen teaches Libertarian 101. Dr. Jorgensen takes us to school about "shy Libertarian voters," wasted red & blue votes, victimless crimes, Seagrams, meth, Edward Snowden, pre-existing medical conditions, big tech, the Clemson Tigers & cask-strength whiskey. Visit jo20.com and follow Jo Jorgensen on Twitter @Jorgensen4POTUS and @LPNational.   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT Sign up for the TPT newsletter, ask questions and follow us: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20   Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp   Politicians in My Eyes (Death, 1974) is the theme song of The Political Trade. Courtesy of Bank Robber Music.

Republicans, Democrats, partisans & wingnuts ... There's something for everyone in this special recap episode featuring favorite guests, moments and trades from our last 30 episodes. In the second half of the episode, Star Spangled Gamblers' Pratik Chougule shares his post-VP debate analysis, as well as some trade ideas. TRENDS Our No-Fly Debate Zone Pratik Chougule Predicts a Wave TRADES Florida Blues Longshot, or EC Money? Follow Pratik Chogule on Twitter @pjchougule and hear him regularly on Star Spangled Gamblers   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT Sign up for the TPT newsletter, ask questions and follow us: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp Politicians in My Eyes, (Death, 1974) is the theme song of The Political Trade. Courtesy of Bank Robber Music.

Before you place any more political bets, check out pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group's explanation of why he beat his polling peers in the past two election cycles, how he nailed the Electoral College outcome in 2016 and why the polls are wrong again in 2020. Cahaly calls the swing states, two key Senate toss-ups and some Luckbox Longshot trades for less than a dime. TRENDS The Polls Are Wrong—Here's Why There IS a Shy Trump Voter  Correcting for Social Desirability Bias Nate Silver and the $10,000 Challenge TRADES (8) Swinging in FL, NC, PA & WI GA & MI Senate Seats ECMoV Third-Party Smarty THE LUCKBOX LONGSHOT Hint: Three Coins in the Mountains Follow Robert Cahaly on Twitter @RobertCahaly and check out @Trafalgar_Group at thetrafalgargroup.org   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT Sign up for the TPT newsletter, ask questions and follow us: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty returns to The Political Trade after going four-for-four on his prior trades. Paul shares his Biden-favoring election day hedging strategy, three new high-return trades and a Luckbox Lockbox trade with a big upside! TRENDS U.K. & Betfair Pricing  RBG and the Debates 2016 Misdeeds & Midterm Misreads TACTICS: High-Performance Biden Hedges Swinging for the Swing States TRADES Popular Vote MoV Brackets Next European Leader Out on the Dime EC MoV Brackets THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX  This Swing State Has Already Swung   Follow Paul "Motty" Krishnamurty on Twitter @paulmotty and check out his blog at politicalgambler.com The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT Sign up for the TPT newsletter, ask questions and follow us: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

Super-trader Jason Pipkin returns to The Political Trade after nailing major forecasts ahead of Super Tuesday in his first appearance. This time, he's sharing the essential tips, tricks and skills necessary to trade successfully—and profitably—on election night. TRENDS Jason's contest for political traders TACTICS: Election Night The County Line Florida, Man & NC State The Websites You Need to Know TRADES Buy Biden Better The Safety Dance If/When to Board the Trump Train THE LUCKBOX LONGSHOT Hint: B2 for a Dime THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX  Hint: On the Green in Four Follow Jason Pipkin on Twitter @jipkin and check out his blog at predictingpolitics.com   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20   Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at The American University, holds "The Keys to the White House" — his proven, proprietary model for forecasting presidential elections that correctly called the 2016 election for Donald Trump, as well as every other presidential outcome since 1984. This TPT episode compares the model's predictive accuracy to polling, and delves into each of Lichtman's proprietary 13 Keys. "The Keys to the White House" is available on Amazon. Follow Allan Lichtman on Twitter @AllanLichtman.   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

Former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich returns for Part 2 of his TPT appearance. In Part 2, Blago enters the trading pits of PredictIt.org, analyzing the markets and sharing his unique perspectives, opinions and forecasts as a former state governor. A total of eight markets are called in all, including the market for Paul Manafort's clemency, markets for a couple key battleground states, a more obscure Illinois-focused market, and the big one: "Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?" Listen to more of Gov. Blagojevich weekly on the "Lightning Rod" podcast.   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

When he took office in 2003, Rod Blagojevich was the first Democrat elected to be Illinois' governor in 30 years. Riding a populist wave, he racked up progressive political victories until he was taken into federal custody on corruption charges in 2008. After serving eight years of his 14-year sentence, Blagojevich had his sentence commuted by President Donald Trump in February 2020. In this provocative two-part series, the former governor tells all, revealing his frustration, wisdom, populist insights and 2020 political forecasts. Listen to more of former Gov. Blagojevich weekly on the "Lightning Rod" podcast.   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp