USSC Briefing Room

One year ago, Anthony Albanese, Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden gathered at Naval Base Point Loma in San Diego to share the ‘optimal pathway’ for Australia to acquire the nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS agreement. This critical step laid out the timeline, the type of submarines that would be acquired and the price tag of $268-$368b for AUKUS Pillar I.

But we wanted to check in, one year after the optimal pathway was announced. How are we progressing? Was the pathway realistic? And what are the barriers would be most likely to derail this plan?

United States Studies Centre (USSC) Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Prof. Peter Dean and Research Associate Alice Nason joined Director of Engagement and Impact Mari Koeck to discuss.

Read more:

AUKUS inflection point: Building the ecosystem for workforce development by Peter Dean, Alice Nason, Sophie Mayo and Samuel Garrett

AUKUS has become a case study in generational politics by Peter Dean and Alice Nason

Are Biden and Congress playing chicken with AUKUS? by Tom Corben and Alice Nason

The university sector’s value proposition for AUKUS: Times Higher Education Summit outcomes report by Peter Dean, Sophie Mayo and Alex Favier

The social licence for AUKUS has not yet been earned by Sophie Mayo, Peter Lee and Alice Nason

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Produced by: Elliott Brennan

This is the third in a series of three episodes this week recorded following USSC’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Simulation in November 2023. In these recordings, leading regional experts sit down with our own resident scholars to discuss Indo-Pacific security issues, trilateral cooperation between Australia, Japan and the United States, and the finer points of designing and playing a strategic simulation.

This episode features Prof. Peter Dean, Director of the Foreign Policy and Defence Program at the USSC in conversation with Jacqueline Borsboom, Managing Director for Australia at the Asia Group.

Subscribe to the USSC Briefing Room on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Produced by: Elliott Brennan

This is the second in a series of three episodes this week recorded following USSC’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Simulation in November 2023. In these recordings, leading regional experts sit down with our own resident scholars to discuss Indo-Pacific security issues, trilateral cooperation between Australia, Japan and the United States, and the finer points of designing and playing a strategic simulation.

This episode features Prof. Peter Dean, Director of the Foreign Policy and Defence Program at the USSC in conversation with Zack Cooper, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington DC.

You can also hear from Zack Cooper and Peter Dean in the recording from the Sydney International Strategy Forum panel discussion on AUKUS, the Quad and the future of alliances and partnerships here.

Subscribe to the USSC Briefing Room on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Produced by: Elliott Brennan

This week on the podcast, we’re bringing you the first three episodes in a series recorded following USSC’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Simulation in November 2023. In these recordings, leading regional experts sit down with our own resident scholars to discuss Indo-Pacific security issues, trilateral cooperation between Australia, Japan and the United States, and the finer points of designing and playing a strategic simulation.

This episode features Dr Michael Green, CEO of the USSC, in conversation with Nobukatsu Kanehara, Executive Director of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo, Japan.

You can also hear from Nobukatsu Kanehara in the recording from the Sydney International Strategy Forum panel discussion on AUKUS, the Quad and the future of alliances and partnerships here.

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Produced by: Elliott Brennan

After a year of travel, conferences and meetings in the four Quad countries — Australia, India, Japan and the United States — four think tank experts from across the Indo-Pacific enter the USSC Briefing Room to discuss Quad cooperation. 

What is the Quad trying to achieve? What is and isn’t working well and how can the four countries more closely and effectively cooperate on their shared vision for the region?

In this ‘QuadPod’, Lucas Meyers, from the Wilson Center in the United States, Dr Gaurav Saini from the Council for Strategic and Defense Research in India, Dr Shu Uchida from Waseda University in Japan, and the USSC’s own Victoria Cooper share their views on the big questions.

Read more:

• The Quad topic on ussc.edu.au
• What is the Quad? by Blake Berger, Victoria Cooper, Lucas Myers, Shu Uchida, and Gaurav Saini
• Bolstering the Quad: The case for a collective approach to maritime security by Tom Corben, Ashley Townshend, Blake Herzinger, Darshana M Baruah, and Dr Tomohiko Satake
• The Quad is edging closer to collective maritime defence by Tom Corben

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Produced by: Elliott Brennan

Last week, the special counsel Robert Hur released his report with findings of his investigation into President Biden’s handling of classified documents after he left the office of vice president. While a legal vindication in that he will not be charged, it has poured petrol on the fire that is discussion on Biden’s age and whether he’s up for a second term. We dove into this topic with Washington insider, United States Studies Centre Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe.

How much of a risk is this to Biden’s campaign? Who is winning the messaging war between Republicans and Democrats? And, ultimately, what would actually have to happen in order for President Biden to step aside?

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Produced by: Elliott Brennan

Last month, world leaders gathered in Dubai for the UN Climate Change Conference – COP 28. The loss and damage agreement supporting nations impacted by climate change made headlines, but the walk back of language around fossil fuels was viewed by many as a step backwards.

Was COP28 a net positive or negative? How relevant is COP anymore? Where should global efforts focus to mitigate climate change?

United States Studies Centre (USSC) Non-Resident Fellow Lachlan Carey, Manager at RMI sat down with USSC Research Director Jared Mondschein to discuss COP28 and next steps for climate action in 2024.

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Produced by: Elliott Brennan

The first contest of the 2024 US presidential election kicked off in Iowa this week. Dedicated Republicans turned out and voiced support for Donald Trump, delivering him the majority of votes with a 30-point margin over his competition. Ron DeSantis barely beat out Nikki Hayley for the number two spot, but Hayley was the only candidate to win a precinct other than Trump.

Going into the next primaries, does anyone stand a chance against Trump? What would be the pathway to victory for a Trump challenger? Who is a likely choice for vice president?

United States Studies Centre Non-Resident Senior Fellow Lester Munson joined Research Director Jared Mondschein to break down what happened in Iowa and what this means for Trump’s candidacy.

Read more:

Trump wins big in Iowa, now what? By Lester Munson

A guide to the 2024 presidential election: from primaries to president by Ava Kalinauskas and Samuel Garrett

USSC Insights | Reactions to Iowa

Where the ‘other’ 2024 Republican candidates stand on Australia and the world by Ava Kalinauskas and Samuel Garrett

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Produced by: Elliott Brennan

Looking for something to read? In our ‘Book Talk’ series, our experts discuss their book projects and why you should read them. In this episode, Associate Professor David Smith talks through his research on religious persecution in the United States, the role of religion in politics, and ideas of political order, social cohesion and American identity.  

Why does a country that sees religious freedom as central to its founding have such a painful history with religious persecution? How does the US experience compare with what we’ve seen in Australia? Where is the United States today on the spectrum of religious persecution and protection? 

Associate Professor Smith’s 2015 book Religious Persecution and Political Order in the United States was published by Cambridge University Press. 

Produced by Elliott Brennan 

Are you wondering what to read over the holiday period? In our ‘Book Talk’ series, our experts discuss their latest book projects and why you should read them. In this episode, USSC CEO Dr Michael J. Green sheds light on the evolution of Japan’s grand strategy. 

How is Abe’s strategic approach to the Indo-Pacific reflected in Japan, Australia and the United States today? What lessons can be learned from Abe’s approach to China and the Trump administration? Why is the relationship between Australia and Japan deepening? How might strategic competition end? 

Dr Green’s 2022 book, Line of Advantage: Japan’s Grand Strategy in the Era of Abe Shinzō, draws from Mike’s long-standing connection with the former Prime Minister and provides a unique political and historical context of Japan’s security policy and the role of US alliances in the Indo Pacific. 

Read more: 

• Dr Michael J Green, Line of Advantage: Japan’s Grand Strategy in the Era of Abe Shinzō, (Columbia University Press, 2022) 
• USSC Director of Research Jared Mondschein and Research Editor Victoria Cooper, One year from the 2024 US presidential election: The stakes for Australia and the alliance (United States Studies Centre, 2023) 

Produced by Elliott Brennan

Taiwan does not have formal diplomatic relations with Australia and the United States, but they do have diplomatic representatives in both countries and formal or informal ties all over the world. Taiwan’s representative to Australia Douglas Hsu sat down with Research Director Jared Mondschein to discuss the state of play in Taiwan on the precipice of their upcoming presidential election.

What challenges does not having formal diplomatic ties to Australia and the United states bring? Is Taiwan being used as a pawn in strategic competition with China? How concerned is Taiwan about whether the United States or Australia would come to its defence if China decides to invade it?

Douglas Hsu is Taiwan’s Representative to Australia. He was previously Director General of North American Affairs within Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and served in the Political and Congressional Liaison divisions of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States.

You may also want to watch our event replay Taiwan's upcoming election: The implications for Australia featuring Douglas Hsu, Richard McGregor, Dr Lavina Lee and Dr Michael Green.

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Produced by: Elliott Brennan

Since the US withdrawal from TPP in 2017, Australia has remained keen to see the United States re-engage Asia on trade. The Biden administration launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) in May of 2022 to balance economic engagement in the region with a “foreign policy for the middle class” approach that prioritised increasing labor and environmental standards. Some early harvest provisions were announced at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit last month, but in balancing trade with labour policy, questions remain over their value for IPEF member countries.

How is the Biden administration’s economic strategy in Asia different than prior administrations? How should Australia and other US allies understand US opinion on trade strategy? Did the early harvest provisions announced at APEC earn a passing grade or is it too little, too late?

United States Studies Centre (USSC) Economic Security Director Hayley Channer and Research Associate Samuel Garrett discuss their assessment of IPEF post APEC with Research Director Jared Mondschein.

Read more:

An economic pillar to round out US strategy in Asia: IPEF and Australia's interests by Hayley Channer, Victoria Cooper and Jared Mondschein

What options are on the table for IPEF? by Samuel Garrett

USSC Insights | IPEF supply chain agreement by Georgia Edmonstone

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This is the final episode in a series of four panel discussions recorded from the United States Studies Centre’s inaugural Sydney International Strategy Forum. This episode is the “AUKUS, the Quad and the future of alliances and partnerships” panel featuring:

• Prof. Peter Dean – Director of Foreign Policy and Defence, United States Studies Centre
• Zack Cooper – Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute
• Rep. Akihisa Nagashima – a member of the Japanese House of Representatives
• Dr Gorana Grgic – Senior Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy, United States Studies Centre
• Dr Michael Green – CEO, United States Studies Centre

A video recording of this episode is available on the USSC YouTube channel here. The playlist of all recordings from the Sydney International Strategy Forum is available here.

Subscribe to the USSC Briefing Room on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Produced by: Elliott Brennan

This is the third in a series of four panel discussions recorded from the United States Studies Centre’s inaugural Sydney International Strategy Forum. This episode is the “Navigating de-risking, disruption and emerging technology” panel featuring:

• Michaela Browning, Vice President Government and Public Policy for Asia Pacific – Google  
• Dr John Kunkel, Senior Economic Adviser – United States Studies Centre  
• Hayley Channer, Director Economic Security – United States Studies Centre  
• Moderator: Jared Mondschein, Director of Research – United States Studies Centre  

A video recording of this episode is available on the USSC YouTube channel here. The playlist of all recordings from the Sydney International Strategy Forum is available here.

Subscribe to the USSC Briefing Room on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Produced by: Elliott Brennan

This is the second in a series of four panel discussions recorded from the United States Studies Centre’s inaugural Sydney International Strategy Forum. This episode is the “US politics at the crossroads” panel featuring:

§  Ryan Lizza, Chief Washington Correspondent – Politico  

§  Olivia Nuzzi, Washington Correspondent – New York Magazine  

§  Associate Professor David Smith, Professor in American Politics & Foreign Policy – United States Studies Centre  

§  Bruce Wolpe, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, United States Studies Centre

§  Moderator: Victoria Cooper, Research Editor – United States Studies Centre    

A video recording of this episode is available on the USSC YouTube channel here. The playlist of all recordings from the Sydney International Strategy Forum is available here.

Subscribe to the USSC Briefing Room on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Produced by: Elliott Brennan

This week on the podcast, we’re bringing you a special series of recordings from the United States Studies Centre’s inaugural Sydney International Strategy Forum. These will each share one of the four panel discussions from the day. This episode is the “How far will US-China confrontation go?” panel featuring:

• Michele Flournoy – Co-Founder of West Exec Advisors and former US Under Secretary of Defence
• Admiral Phil Davidson – Former commander of US Indo-Pacific Command
• Dr Evan Medeiros, Professor and Penner family chair in Asia Studies in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and
• The Honourable Kim Beazley, former Australian Ambassador to the United States.
• Moderated by Dr Michael Green, CEO of the United States Studies Centre

Dr Evan Medeiros’ book mentioned in podcast, Cold Rivals: The New Era of US-China Strategic Competition, is available here.

A video recording of this episode is available on the USSC YouTube channel here. The playlist of all recordings from the Sydney International Strategy Forum is available here.

Subscribe to the USSC Briefing Room on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Produced by: Elliott Brennan

We are one year out from the 2024 US presidential election. If we ignore the actuarial possibilities or something that completely derails the polling reports we’re seeing, it will be a 2020 repeat of Trump v. Biden. But what are they like behind the scenes? Do their public personas match their private personas? How does this impact their 2024 campaigns?

To discuss this, we interviewed Chief Washington Correspondent for Politico Ryan Lizza and Washington Correspondent for New York Magazine Olivia Nuzzi. Ryan’s reporting on President Obama won the White House Correspondents’ Association Aldo Beckman award and Olivia won the National Magazine award for journalists under 30.

Please note there is one instance of swearing in this episode.

Publications mentioned in the podcast:

My Private Oval Office Press Conference With Donald Trump, Mike Pence, John Kelly, and Mike Pompeo by Olivia Nuzzi

Donald Trump on 2024: ‘I’ve Already Made That Decision’ by Olivia Nuzzi

The Lowy Institute poll 2012: Public opinion and foreign policy by Fergus Hanson

One year from the 2024 US presidential election: The stakes for Australia and the alliance by Jared Mondschein, Victoria Cooper, Samuel Garrett and Ava Kalinauskas

This week, co-hosts Director of Research Jared Mondschein and Research Editor Victoria Cooper discuss their latest polling report, One year from the 2024 US presidential election: The stakes for Australia and the alliance which surveyed respondents in Australia, the United States and Japan. It covers all the issues most relevant to the Australia-US alliance and regional relationships at this time.

Are attitudes towards China heating up or cooling down? Where is public opinion at on AUKUS at the moment? If Donald Trump wins the presidency in 2024, what does this mean for the Australia-US alliance?

Tune in to find out all the latest numbers.

This month has been incredibly tumultuous in US politics. We had the historic ousting of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, courtroom drama in the cases against former president Trump and war breaking out in Israel. Republican disunity appears to be near breaking point. To help make sense of the fast-moving dynamics, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy David Smith provides a breakdown of the latest and what to expect moving forward.

What does the House speaker race reveal about the Republican Party? If convicted of a crime, would President Trump serve jail time? Where is the Republican Party on support for Israel?

Tune in for answers to these questions and more.

Publications mentioned in the podcast:

Religious Persecution and Political Order in the United States

Next week, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is heading to the United States for an official visit with President Biden, including a state dinner. Two USSC experts have staffed state visits before, one on the US side and one on the Australian side – CEO Dr Michael Green and Senior Economic Adviser Dr John Kunkel. Their inside perspectives can give us a better understanding of what goes on behind the scenes for these sort of high-profile visits. What’s at stake? What sort of role do these visits play? Does this visit make up for the cancelled Quad trip?

In this episode, they share the triumphs and foibles of past state visits (including the Trump-Morrison visit in 2019) and analyse what Prime Minister Albanese needs to be prepared for before touching down in the United States.