agricultural economics

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the price of the average Thanksgiving dinner for 10 this year is up 20% as inflation continues to take a bite out of the U.S. consumer’s wallet. But are media reports of potential shortages of butter and turkey accurate, or are these key holiday meal ingredients readily available?

Throughout the month of October and into November, news stories suggested that a range of grocery items, most notably butter, eggs, and turkeys, might be harder to find this holiday season. To get to the bottom of the supply chain situation, we spoke with Michael Dykes, president of the International Dairy Foods Association, and Brian Earnest, senior protein analyst with CoBank.

This episode is sponsored by Novus International, a leader in swine, poultry and dairy nutrition solutions driven by science. Novus’ products and services look at the whole animal, focusing on productivity and well-being, in order to feed the world affordable and wholesome food. For more information, visit Novus’ website at www.novusint.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Mark Hulsebus, Swine Commercial Director at Cargill, offers some animal feed and hog market perspective. 

Feed costs appear to be moderating somewhat as harvest is in full swing across the Midwest, and lean hog prices are much stronger than they were this time a year ago. 

Hulsebus discusses the current demand picture for pork and how that's reflected in lean hog futures, and provides an outlook on  what the profit picture looks like over the next 12 months and where opportunities to lock in profits might exist.

These are uncertain times, and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s episode or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK MARK at mark_hulsebus@cargill.com.

Also, click HERE to subscribe to the Cargill Pig Flash weekly eNewsletter.

Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and  www.NationalHogFarmer.com.

Farmers and ranchers around the world are increasingly forced to adapt to changing weather patterns. And while a lot of agricultural research has focused on mitigation strategies for crop production, livestock producers face a unique set of challenges that have not yet received the same level of academic inquiry. One professor at the University of Illinois is working to change that.

A new study from the University of Illinois examined how cattle ranchers in Brazil are responding to climate change in the Amazon. Previous research shows the dry season is increasing up to 0.6 days per year, putting more stress on animals. That is pushing ranchers to sell their cattle early, according to Marin Skidmore, assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at U of I. Her paper was recently published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, and in this episode we talk with Dr. Skidmore about her findings, and the implications for U.S. cattle producers dealing with extended drought here at home.

You can read more of our coverage of the impacts of climate change on the livestock industry in the pages of Feedstuffs. You can find our latest issue and past editions by visiting Feedstuffs.com and clicking on “Digital Editions.”

This episode is sponsored by United Animal Health, a leader in animal health and nutrition. You can learn more about United Animal Health and how they are working to advance animal science worldwide by visiting their website UnitedANH.com.

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Mark Hulsebus, Swine Commercial Director at Cargill, offers some animal feed and hog market perspective. The headwinds of inflation dramatically altered the opportunity to lock in profits in the pork sector over the past 30 days. 

As consumers struggle with  higher costs in generally every sector, the question becomes how much higher meat prices are eroding demand for animal-derived proteins. Hot, dry weather across much of the Corn Belt also present some concerns with regard to producer profitability as a tighter grain supply come harvest would send prices higher and further escalate producer costs.

Finally, Hulsebus provides an update on lean hog values and explains what the profit picture looks like over the next 12 months and where opportunities to lock in profits might exist.

These are uncertain times, and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s episode or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK MARK at mark_hulsebus@cargill.com.

Also, click HERE to subscribe to the Cargill Pig Flash weekly eNewsletter.

Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and  www.NationalHogFarmer.com.

Protein prices have increased rapidly in the past 24 months, amid the broader press of inflation. With inflation at its highest rate in more than 40 years, the question becomes how long beef, pork and poultry prices can remain at such elevated levels before demand erodes significantly.

David Williams is senior vice president of procurement and management at CTI Foods, based in Texas. In this episode, Williams discusses the current state of the animal protein markets, with an eye toward the implications of sustained food price inflation on demand, and how those same factors will influence the supply side of the equation over the next 12-to-24 months.

We also discuss the persistent drought in cattle country, and why he says most analysts are underestimating how much the cattle herd is shrinking as producers struggle in the absence of hay and pasture.

This episode is sponsored by United Animal Health, a leader in animal health and nutrition. You can learn more about United Animal Health and how they are working to advance animal science worldwide by visiting their website UnitedANH.com.

Canadian grain and oilseed sales make up a lion share of farm income in Canada and Manitoba. Canola and wheat prices have been relatively stable since 2008 despite bumper crops and droughts in western Canada. The recent price spikes in the spring of 2022 were well outside all forecasts. Dr. Derek Brewin, Head of Agribusiness and Agricultural Economics, University of Manitoba, and David Simonot, Crops Intelligence Specialist at Manitoba Agriculture, discuss the dynamics of the current supply and demand for canola and wheat and discuss some possible drivers for the rapid price rise this spring.

Inflation will continue to be the top challenge to retail meat demand for the foreseeable future. Retail meat and poultry prices were as much as 18% higher, year over year, in May according to the Consumer Price Index, and inventories remain below pre-pandemic levels. That combination of tight supplies and solid demand kept meat prices 20% higher than the five-year average for the March-May period overall, according to the latest analysis from CoBank.

Brian Earnest is the lead economist for animal protein in CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange division. He provides market and industry research for the poultry, pork, and beef sectors, and in this episode shares his latest analysis of those markets with a particular eye on the role inflation might play in tempering consumer demand.

He also shares his analysis of the supply-side situation, from inventory reductions in the beef space to expansion in the poultry sector.

You can read more of our coverage of the animal protein markets in the pages of Feedstuffs; you can find the latest issue now by visiting Feedstuffs.com and clicking on “Digital Editions.”

Of the $5 billion of U.S. beef exported around the world through May of this year, only $8 million has been to Africa. But Africa is a very promising destination for beef variety meats, a low-cost protein that helps meet Africa’s nutritional needs. There is also growing interest in higher-end beef cuts that draw interest from Africa’s growing middle class.

Matt Copeland, U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) representative in Africa, says that a growing population, an expanding need for affordable protein, an explosion in western-style retail outlets and some softening in regulatory barriers signal the region is a potential growth market for U.S. red meat. In this episode Copeland explains how USMEF, with support from USDA and the Beef Checkoff Program, is laying the groundwork with importers, retailers and suppliers to expand U.S. red meat sales in the region.

You can read more of our coverage of global meat trade in the pages of Feedstuffs; you can find the July issue now by visiting Feedstuffs.com and clicking on “Digital Editions.”

This episode is sponsored by United Animal Health, a leader in animal health and nutrition. You can learn more about United Animal Health and how they are working to advance animal science worldwide by visiting their website UnitedANH.com.

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Mark Hulsebus, Swine Commercial Director at Cargill, offers some animal feed and hog market perspective. The corn market has taken a bit of a breather with the crop largely planted, but any weather disruptions this summer bear watching. The energy markets still dominate the discussion of fat availability for livestock feed.

Hulsebus also discusses the potential for food price inflation to temper meat demand heading into the heart of summer grilling season as consumers struggle with the higher cost of... everything.

Finally, Hulsebus provides an update on the outlook for swine production profitability given the ongoing uncertainty in Eastern Europe and how that has roiled the feed markets, and why the forward profit curve is telling producers to take advantage of opportunities now... because they may not be there in a few months.

These are uncertain times, and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s episode or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK MARK at mark_hulsebus@cargill.com.

Also, click HERE to subscribe to the Cargill Pig Flash weekly eNewsletter.

Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and  www.NationalHogFarmer.com.

After nearly two months of waiting, the U.S. Supreme Court this week announced they would be hearing the case brought by the National Pork Producers Council and the American Farm Bureau Federation challenging California’s Proposition 12 requiring additional space requirements for gestating sows. The state law seeks to ban the sale of pork from hogs that don’t meet what agriculture groups describe as the state’s arbitrary production standards, even if the pork was raised on farms outside of California.

The NPPC-AFBF case, which argues that Prop. 12 violates the Constitution’s Commerce Clause, limiting states’ ability to regulate commerce outside their borders, was finally granted certiorari March 25. NPPC and AFBF will file their initial brief with the Supreme Court in the coming weeks; the Justices could hear oral arguments in the fall and could render a decision by the end of the year.

In this episode we talk with Travis Cushman, Senior Counsel for Public Policy at the American Farm Bureau Federation. Cushman is one of the attorneys working on the case on behalf of the agriculture industry.

This episode is sponsored by United Animal Health, a leader in animal health and nutrition. You can learn more about United Animal Health and how they are working to advance animal science worldwide by visiting their website UnitedANH.com.

Beef prices – like all food prices – have increased as the inflationary story in the marketplace unfolds. Thus far consumers haven’t balked at paying higher prices for their favorite center-of-plate protein, but how long can that demand hold out? And what is the outlook for the cattle producer as feed costs escalate, too?

Don Close is an agricultural economist, and senior animal protein analyst with Rabobank’s Food & Agribusiness Research team. He recently released a report on the beef supply in a “post-COVID world”, discussing a series of challenges facing the beef supply chain in the coming year. I spoke with Don about those challenges, and how beef demand has remained so resilient in the face of inflation the likes of which hasn’t been seen in a generation.

This episode is sponsored by Novus International, Inc. — a leader in poultry, dairy and swine nutrition solutions driven by science. Novus’ products and services look at the whole animal, focusing on productivity and well-being, in order to feed the world affordable and wholesome food.

For more information, visit Novus’s website at www.novusint.com

Over the past two decades, U.S. animal protein exports grew from $7.4 billion to $20.7 billion, driven by a combination of strong marketing by the industry and a series of trade negotiations between governments. Today, global trade accounts for 10%-30% of U.S. animal protein production, depending on industry segment.

But with the Trump Administration’s harder line on trade changing the tone of U.S. policy, where do things stand today, and what upside potential is there yet to grow U.S. protein exports even further?

In this episode we talk with agricultural economist Brian Earnest of CoBank about his recent report examining the importance of maintaining strong relationship with existing trade partners like Mexico, Canada and Japan, while also growing trade with China and other key markets overseas. We’ll also discuss the Biden Administration’s approach to trade policy and the importance of confirming the chief ag negotiator in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

You can read Brian's full report HERE.

This episode is sponsored by United Animal Health, a leader in animal health and nutrition. You can learn more about United Animal Health and how they are working to advance animal science worldwide by visiting their website UnitedANH.com.

We’re on the tail end of the cattle cycle, according to Oklahoma State University agricultural economist Derrell Peel, and a combination of COVID-19’s supply chain disruptions and drought across large swaths of cattle country have fueled a very interesting run in the cattle markets. How have those factors altered the outlook for cattle producer profitability over the next 12 months?

In this episode we talk with Dr. Peel, a highly-respected expert in cattle marketing, about what’s happening as the industry works through a backlog of cattle caused by last year’s COVID-forced shutdowns. Peel discusses the cattle cycle in general, where we are at the moment, and which segments of the industry are making money and the ongoing concern about drought.

This podcast is sponsored by Arm & Hammer Animal and Food Production and their #ScienceHearted podcast, “Food Chain Chats.” In a new episode, listen to Elliot Block, Research Fellow and Director of Technology at Arm & Hammer Animal and Food Production, talk about the role diet can play in helping beef cattle when they need it most – and why it matters to your herd. CLICK HERE to listen to “Food Chain Chats,” or subscribe wherever you satisfy your podcast cravings.

The emergence of plant-based proteins and other would-be meat alternatives has many in the traditional animal protein industries concerned about losing market share among U.S. consumers. But what does the data actually tell us? How many consumers are willing to pay the premium price many plant-based proteins currently command at retail?

In this episode we talk with Glynn Tonsor, a leading agricultural economist at Kansas State University, about research he and his colleagues conducted over the past year regarding consumer attitudes about beef and plant-based meat alternatives.

Among the study's key findings, the researchers learned that consumers who regularly eat beef said they are willing to pay nearly $2 more per meal for a beef burger rather than the plant-based alternative, when dining at a restaurant. On the flip-side, those who have a preference for plant-based protein alternatives are equally passionate, saying they would be willing to pay $1.48 more per meal.

We’ll also hear why Tonsor isn’t overly concerned about animal-derived proteins losing market share, and what the literature tells us about who prefers plant-based, and who would rather have the real deal.

Read the full study and an executive summary.

Recent headlines have suggested that food prices are rising faster than inflation or incomes, prompting concerns that consumers struggling through a pandemic-racked economy may be spending more of their dollars to feed their families. But what is the data really saying – are we talking about retail grocery prices, food consumed away from home, or simply about rising commodity prices?

In this episode we talk with Scott Irwin, the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois. His research on agricultural markets is widely cited by other academic researchers and is in high demand among market participants, policymakers, and the media. He is best known for his work on the impact of speculation in commodity markets.

Irwin recently noted that headlines in consumer press about food price inflation are a bit misleading. In a wide-ranging interview, he peels apart the layers of the food price inflation discussion, and the related implications for farm and food policy. He also discusses the concept of a commodity market “supercycle,” if we are or are not entering one now, and prospects for general inflation over the next 3-5 years.

For more information on this and other stories, visit  Feedstuffs  online.
Follow Feedstuffs on Twitter @Feedstuffs, or join the conversation via Facebook.

Winter Storm Uri, the latest in a series of winter storms this month, pummeled much of the Heartland, from deep into Texas on through the High Plains and across the Midwest. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, more than 73% of the Lower 48 states was covered in snow by Wednesday — the largest snowcover for a single day since NOAA began tracking this data in 2003.

With extreme cold temperatures lasting far longer than normal in several regions affected by the storm, the implications for livestock producers and marketers are significant. During a Feedstuffs 365 live panel this week, Dennis Smith with Archer Financial predicted that cattle slaughter will likely drop 40,000 head this week due to the situation. 

Although most of the issues with plant shutdowns are happening in Texas due to the significant strain placed on the state’s electric grid, plants in Kansas were also being idled, shut down, or slowed.

In this episode we talk with Oklahoma State University agricultural economist Derrell Peel, who was – in his words – hunkered down due to the storm during our conversation. He provides some insights into what cattle and hog producers are up against, and what it might mean for cattle and hog slaughter, as well as how the extreme weather might affect consumer meat demand in the coming days.

RELATED STORY: Winter Storm Uri batters agriculture supply chain

Last year was a record-setting year for U.S. pork exports. Sales abroad in 2020 were up 11% by volume and value increased 11% compared to 2019, according to recent data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation. From January to December, 6.56 billion pounds of U.S. pork and pork variety meat, valued at $7.7 billion, were exported globally. Pork exports accounted for 29.3% of total U.S. pork production.

In this episode we talk with a pair of pork industry experts on how the U.S. achieved these record-setting sales volumes and values, and what the road ahead looks like for the industry in 2021. 

First, we’ll hear from Dr. Clay Eastwood, Director of International Marketing for the National Pork Board, about how the Pork Checkoff and the U.S. Meat Export Federation navigated the uncharted waters of overseas marketing during a global pandemic.

Later in the episode we’ll talk with noted agricultural economist Brett Stuart, founding partner of Global AgriTrends, about his analysis of what’s happening in China and his projections for 2021 pork exports. 

For more information on this and other stories, visit  Feedstuffs  online.
Follow Feedstuffs on Twitter @Feedstuffs, or join the conversation via Facebook.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported last week that beef cattle inventories were slightly smaller than a year ago, but given long-term market trends, there may yet be too many cows producing too many calves to keep producers profitable over the long haul. Couple that with rising feed costs and a shifting policy situation in Washington, and it’s an interesting time — to put it mildly — to be in the animal protein business.

In this episode of Feedstuffs In Focus we talk with a long-time animal protein analyst with one of the world’s leading agri-finance companies about what he took away from last week’s Cattle Inventory Report, and what the data means for beef, swine and poultry producers.

Don Close is a senior animal protein analyst at Rabo AgriFinance in the RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness group. There he is responsible for analyzing all animal protein sectors with a specialization in beef. His extensive research experience includes confinement cow/calf operations, ground beef, and development in international trade.

Close explains not only what we learned from the latest USDA data, but also what it means for beef, pork and poultry producers over the next year, including price implications and the possibility of shrinking profits given higher feed costs that could go higher yet. He also discusses his concerns for ag-related policies from a new administration and how they could affect producers out in the countryside.

This episode of Feedstuffs In Focus is sponsored by United Animal Health, a leader in animal health and nutrition. You can learn more about United Animal Health and how they are working to advance animal science worldwide by visiting their website UnitedANH.com.

Dreaming of opening up your own theater? Interested in becoming an executive producer? Ambitions of becoming a sales and marketing manager? Want to learn more about the business of buying/selling/marketing produce?  If so, you will not want to miss this podcast!  Even if none of these subjects interest you, we think that you will really enjoy our conversation with Michael Guptill.  His story is fascinating! 

Michael Guptill is the owner/executive producer of Hackmatack Playhouse,  located in Berwick, Maine. In this episode, we ask Michael all the details of running a theater, we talked about his college years at the University of Maine, Orono  and we got into the details of his "real" job as the sales and marketing manager at Gold Bell.

He provides tips on how to work your way up to his current position and lots of interesting tips on how to manage a summer stock theater.

Hackmatack, named for the trees on the property, sits on nearly 200 beautiful acres and has been in the Guptill family since the 1600's!  It has been been a working farm since then.  It is still a working farm today, where they raise 100% all natural, grass fed bison (or buffalo).

We hope you enjoy this podcast!
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Show Notes:
Dave Barry
Hackmatack's Summer Season Lineup and Tickets  
Hackmatack Farm | Bison  

This week, we have a bonus segment about what it takes to end hunger in America. Back on episode 10, we brought you a few highlights from our trip to Slow Food Nations. Many of you reached out about one segment in particular: a clip of our interview with John Ikerd. So this week, we bring you that interview in its entirety.

We first heard Ikerd speak at the Slow Food Leadership Summit, and became intrigued by one of his big ideas. He believes that there is a way to solve hunger in the U.S. It requires us to view food as a public utility and place a larger emphasis on human relationships.

Ikerd holds a PhD in Agricultural Economics from the University of Missouri, and his career focus was agricultural extension. In 1984, he became the director of Extension Agricultural Economics at the University of Georgia. However, in the 80s, his way of thinking began to shift. The US was experiencing a farm crisis, and Ikerd began to see failures of the policies he had been advocating to farmers. He reoriented his work towards sustainable agriculture and economics, and brought this outlook to the Land Grant system. He returned to the University of Missouri in 1989, under a cooperative agreement with the USDA, with a mission to develop research and educational programs related to sustainable agriculture.

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