apec

This episode covers the role of US and Chinese domestic politics in the US-China relationship. There are many drivers of US-China strategic competition, and domestic politics is among them, and has become increasingly important, though it has not been well researched and analyzed in recent years. One reason for the lack of analysis on Chinese politics is that since Xi Jinping became China’s top leader in 2012, domestic politics in China has become even more of black box than previously. 

Bonnie is joined by Dr. Evan Medeiros, who has recently published a pathbreaking study that seeks to update the understanding of political forces in China and the United States that are influencing the bilateral relationship. Medeiros is one of the world’s leading experts on Chinese foreign policy. He is the Penner Family Chair in Asia studies and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in US-China Studies in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. The report we will discuss today is titled: "The New Domestic Politics of US-China Relations" and was published by the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis where Evan is a senior fellow for foreign policy. During the Obama administration, Evan was on the NSC staff, first as director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, and then as special assistant to the president and Senior Director for Asia. 

Timestamps

[02:14] Influence of Domestic Politics in the US and China

[03:32] Differences between US and Chinese Domestic Politics

[05:19] Weakening of Historical Forces for Stability

[08:35] Most Important Driver of Change to America’s China Policy

[13:34] Xi Jinping Shaping Domestic Politics in China

[19:38] Reversing the Downward Trend in US-China Relations

[21:44] Close Connections between Domestic and Foreign Politics

[24:49] Biden and Xi as Leaders in the Bilateral Relationship

0:00 -- Intro.

1:26-- About the podcast sponsor: The American College of Governance Counsel.

2:13 -- Start of interview.

3:47 -- Ker's "origin story." 

7:41 -- His history with the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai (AmCham).

9:42 -- About his book “Selling to China. Stories of Success, Failure and Constant Change.” (2023). "We felt that it was important to remind people why we're doing this in the first place, you know, what's good about our relationship with China. We wanted bring the commercial issues back into the conversation."

13:31 -- On the current idea of “uncoupling” or “de-risking” the US economy from China.

"I think it is good to talk about 'de-risking' rather than 'decoupling'." "I don't think a complete decoupling is realistic and it's certainly not in the interest of either side. But I think the de-risking term is helpful, in the sense that it aims at communicating the intent. {The intent] here is not to punish China or isolate China or decouple from China, but it is to protect our interests, whether they're military interests or strategic economic interests."

16:46 -- On whether the US policies and sanctions towards China are effective.

"The narrative is that the export controls and sanctions and de-risking coming out of Washington DC is simply pushing China to be more self-sufficient." "This has to be seen as a temporary measure, that gives us time to resolve the actual conflicts that exist."

21:21 -- On the US responding with its own industrial policy to catch up with China (e.g. in batteries and EVs). 

"We've got to be careful not to slip into outright protectionism and allow this to change who we are as a country and how we've been successful as an economy." "[I]f we get into a situation where we are indeed trying to limit China's economic rise, and literally keep China economically contained, that is a dangerous path, and it's a bad narrative, because it inevitably leads to conflict."

"I'm basically conservative when it comes to economic issues and fiscal policy, but I have actually been saying for quite a long time that the US needs to get over its aversion to industrial policy and put some planning in place."

30:38 -- On China’s private sector.

"[B]eijing actually kept a remarkably light hand [in the development of the internet industry]. I give the Beijing policymakers full credit there for knowing that they needed to stay out of the way and let that happen." "Now we've seen the pendulum swing back the other way." 

"Jack Ma was going around visiting countries and he would almost be treated like a head of state. I think Jack Ma must have, because his company is publicly listed in New York, he might have confused himself with a Western CEO. He's not. China is China and the West is the West, especially in the tech sector. So yeah, he's been disciplined as have some other tech leaders."

36:21 -- On the fate of TikTok in the US.

40:38 -- On the recent APEC meeting in SF, and his take on Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping meetings.

 "I put it in the category of huge success that the meeting happened, that Xi Jinping actually showed up." "It's critical that Xi and Biden meet face-to-face because of the Chinese political system, it is so concentrated at the top."

46:09 -- On the risks of a military conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan. 

"We should not underestimate [China's] willingness to take the island and take it by force. I think at some point you have to just take them at their word. If you listen to the domestic media and domestic speeches that Xi and others make in China, it's quite clear that they're highly motivated to take the island and willing to." "[But] I don't think it's imminent, mostly because of the difficulty of taking the island and of the probability of success on the Chinese side."

"I think the probability of an accidental conflict [is] high. And until the agreement of the last week or so, the ability to de-escalate and de-conflict, low." "In other words, without that military-to-military hotline, there would be no way for it to de-escalate."

50:35 -- How should boards think about de-risking its China exposure.

"They should be thinking about what are the hard assets that they have, both in mainland China and in Taiwan? What I'm hearing boards do is that some of them are converting their businesses to more asset light. So, in other words, converting a wholly owned subsidiary to maybe selling off some of the shares to make that into a minority investment or a full asset light model might be literally selling factories and hard assets and then maybe licensing them back or something like that to where they wouldn't have to literally write them off the way many companies had to do in Russia when that took place, and you saw large companies writing off literally billions of dollars of assets off their balance sheets because they could no longer have access to them."

"Again, I don't think that we are on the brink here, but it would be wise to have plans in place in the case of, especially in accidental conflict."

52:27 -- Books that have greatly influenced his life: 

1. Free to Choose by Milton Friedman (1980)
2. All books by James Clavell. [*we cover here his thoughts on Hong Kong]
3. No Ordinary Time: Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt: The Home Front in World War II by Doris Kearns Goodwin (1994) ("great companion book to The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich by William L. Shirer (1960)

57:24 -- His mentors: 

1. Robert "Bob" Theleen (a local San Franciscan, former VC and Chairman of AmCham Shanghai)
2. Bob Chang (his boss at the Boston Consulting Group in SF)
3. RT Peng (another boss he worked with in Taiwan)

58:36 -- Quotes that he thinks of often or lives her life by: "Don't ever let what you can't do stop you from what you can do." by John Wooden.

1:00:20 -- An unusual habit or absurd thing that he loves: his daughter.

1:01:21 -- The living person he most admires: Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Kerr Gibbs is an EIR at the University of San Francisco. Prior, Ker served as the President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai and worked in various roles giving him broad exposure to US-China relations and business issues facing American companies operating in Asia.

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This podcast is sponsored by the American College of Governance Counsel.

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 You can follow Evan on social media at:

Twitter: @evanepstein

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/epsteinevan/ 

Substack: https://evanepstein.substack.com/

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You can join as a Patron of the Boardroom Governance Podcast at:

Patreon: patreon.com/BoardroomGovernancePod

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Music/Soundtrack (found via Free Music Archive): Seeing The Future by Dexter Britain is licensed under a Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 United States License

You can follow Evan on social media at:

Twitter: @evanepstein

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/epsteinevan/ 

Substack: https://evanepstein.substack.com/

__

You can join as a Patron of the Boardroom Governance Podcast at:

Patreon: patreon.com/BoardroomGovernancePod

__

Music/Soundtrack (found via Free Music Archive): Seeing The Future by Dexter Britain is licensed under a Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 United States License

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has faced sustained pressure to disclose whether he confronted Chinese President Xi Jingping over a naval incident that saw Australian divers injured by a Chinese warship’s sonar.

And the Government has attempted to seize back the domestic agenda and distract from the fallout, releasing a suite of new policies. But has it worked?

Michelle Grattan, Chief Political Correspondent at The Conversation and Professorial fellow at the University of Canberra joined Patricia Karvelas and Fran Kelly on The Party Room.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has faced sustained pressure to disclose whether he confronted Chinese President Xi Jingping over a naval incident that saw Australian divers injured by a Chinese warship’s sonar.

And the Government has attempted to seize back the domestic agenda and distract from the fallout, releasing a suite of new policies. But has it worked?

Michelle Grattan, Chief Political Correspondent at The Conversation and Professorial fellow at the University of Canberra joined Patricia Karvelas and Fran Kelly on The Party Room.

APEC leaders agreed on a reform of the World Trade Organisation- but many were divided on several other key issues.

The ongoing conflict in Gaza and the Russia-Ukraine war divided leaders across the Pacific Rim during the two-day summit.

NZME business commentator Fran O'Sullivan recapped the highlights of the event.

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This week on Politics Central, Jason Walls recapped the ongoing coalition negotiations and shared his predictions for who will be assigned those top ministerial positions. 

Later, Dr Paul Buchanan joins the Weekend Collective to share his insight into the importance of APEC and what we can expect from Biden's meeting with Xi.

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This week on Politics Central, Jason Walls recapped the ongoing coalition negotiations and shared his predictions for who will be assigned those top ministerial positions. 

Later, Dr Paul Buchanan joins the Weekend Collective to share his insight into the importance of APEC and what we can expect from Biden's meeting with Xi.

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Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news American data points to the soft landing the US Fed has been looking for as it seems to have successfully navigated the inflation transition.

But first we should note that President Xi has arrived in San Francisco for the APEC meeting, his first visit to the US in five years. The last time he was there, China's economy was in the ascendency and Trump was the US president. This time those factors have reversed. The Biden-Xi meetings have started but there are low expectations for immediate progress on the thorny issues facing them. Progress, if it comes, will come slowly in small steps.

Meanwhile, US mortgage applications had a rare rise last week, and mortgage interest rates were unchanged. But the rise was as much about the year-ago base as any strength this year.

American producer prices fell in October in something of a surprise retreat. But it was driven lower fuel prices so that is a definite upside. Their PPI fell -0.5% in October from September to be +1.3% higher than a year ago. Good prices went down -1.4% in the month, the first decrease since May mainly due to a -15% drop in petrol prices. Services prices were unchanged from the prior month. It is a good result that indicates the American inflationary impulse has probably passed.

Retail sales decreased by -0.1% in October from September, putting an end to a six-month streak of increases, but at least it was much less than the market expectation of a -0.3% decline, so they have held up better than analysts expected. Year-on-year they are up +2.7%.

Going the other way, they was a very large, and unexpected, rise in factory activity in New York State, in the Fed survey for that region. It was most impressive, up +9.1% but it was driven by a surge in inventories, so it is unlikely to last. New order levels were little-changed, but there was a major catch-up in unfilled orders.

In the US Congress, the Republicans recently installed a new leader in the House of Representatives and his first big test was shepherding a budget funding bill through that body. He succeeded, but only with overwhelming Democrat support. 93 Republicans voted against his measure! Don't bother learning his name (Mike Johnson), he may not be around long. But the net impact of yesterday's vote is that shutdown pressures have evaporated - till the next time, probably in early February 2024.

In Japan, their economy shrank -0.5% in Q3-2023 from Q2, worse than market forecasts of a -0.1% decline and after a +1.1% growth in Q2, a flash figure showed. This was the first quarterly GDP contraction since Q4-2022. It was sluggish private consumption that caused the pullback and that was a surprise because intervening data didn't signal such a drop.

China's October industrial production came in +4.6% higher than year ago levels. These increases have been very even each month since March, looking like they will meet national targets in a steady, planned way.

China's October electricity production was up +5.2% from a year ago, but in fact down -8.6% from September and down -16.7% from August. These recent declines just points out how low the year-ago base was. Unfortunately much of the year-on-year rise was from coal-fired generation.

Retail sales in China were little-changed in October from September (+0.07%), but were up an impressive +7.6% from a year ago, which says more about the weak year-ago base than anything else.

In Europe, September data for industrial production looks kind of awful, no matter which way you look at it. Declines everywhere.

In Argentine, we should note that they are now close to the final round of voting in their presidential election. It is a Peronist vs a libertarian contest. Hyperinflation is the key backdrop.

In Australia, wages rose +4.0% in September from a year ago, the highest rate since 2008. A large part of this was because their Fair Work Commission annual wage review decision of +5.75%, rises in their aged care sector affecting about ¼ mln workers, and ratchet clauses in many wage and salary contracts. There were some chunky public wage settlements as well. In the same year, Australia had 5.4% CPI inflation. (For reference, NZ CPI was 5.6% in the same period and the QES reported weekly gross wages up +5.5% - so holding their own in New Zealand).

Optus has confirmed the software upgrade that triggered its nationwide meltdown last week was from the network of its parent company, Singtel.

The UST 10yr yield is up +8 bps from yesterday, now at 4.55% in a bounce of yesterday's dump. 

The price of gold will start today at US$1961/oz and down -US$2/oz from yesterday.

Oil prices have softened about -US$1.50 overnight, to be just under US$77.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is down to US$81.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.3 USc and up almost +½c from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up to 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up at 55.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on at 69.6, and a net +40 bps higher.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$36,365 and down another -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Joe Biden will be hoping to ease geopolitical tensions in today's meeting with counterpart Xi Jinping. 

The two leaders will meet at 8am NZST in San Francisco at the APEC summit, marking Xi's first visit to the US in six years. 

They're expected to discuss resuming military communications, the climate, and control of a fentanyl pipeline. 

US correspondent Mitch McCann told Kate Hawkesby that US-China relations have been frosty in recent times. 

He says tensions have been heightened over Taiwan and the South China Sea, as well as a claimed spy balloon being shot down earlier this year. 

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President Joe Biden hopes to put the shaky US-China relationship in a better place at APEC.

The summit for Pacific Rim leaders will include a highly anticipated meeting between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping- the first on American soil in over 7 years.

US correspondent Dan Mitchinson says security has been tightened in the Bay Area ahead of the meeting.

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Christopher Luxon says coalition talks will probably prevent him from attending this week's APEC leaders' meeting in San Fransisco.

The summit for Pacific Rim leaders is expected to focus on conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

It will also include a crucial meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first on American soil in about seven years.

NZME business commentator Fran O'Sullivan says Chris Luxon will miss the chance to do a political sweep and show several key leaders what his Government aims to accomplish.

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Christopher Luxon says coalition talks will probably prevent him from attending this week's APEC leaders' meeting in San Fransisco.

The summit for Pacific Rim leaders is expected to focus on conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

It will also include a crucial meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first on American soil in about seven years.

NZME business commentator Fran O'Sullivan says Chris Luxon will miss the chance to do a political sweep and show several key leaders what his Government aims to accomplish.

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Ce lundi 13 novembre, la rencontre au sommet entre les États-Unis et la Chine, en marge de l'Apec, et dont la priorité est de remettre en place les communications militaires, a été abordée par Benaouda Abdeddaïm dans sa chronique, dans l'émission Good Morning Business, présentée par Laure Closier et Christophe Jakubyszyn, sur BFM Business. Retrouvez l'émission du lundi au vendredi et réécoutez la en podcast.

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that on top of the Optus screwup, now the four larges ports in Australia are effectively shut down via a cyberattack.

But first up today, we should note that credit rating agency Moody's has held the US rating at Aaa, but changed the outlook to 'Negative' from 'Stable'. It has been 'Stable' since 2013. S&P has them at AA+ Stable. Fitch is also at AA+ Stable. Moody's expects federal interest payments relative to tax revenue and to GDP to rise to around 26% and 4.5% respectively by 2033, from 9.7% and 1.9% in 2022.

That is one way to start the week, a week that will feature the US CPI update for October, retail sales data and a number of Fed speakers. We'll also get US PPI, industrial production data and housing start numbers.

China will be in the limelight with updates on new yuan loans, industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment. The week will also unveil Q3 GDP growth rates for Japan and a number of other countries. India will release CPI data, and Australia will provide updates on both Westpac Consumer Confidence and NAB Business Confidence.

Over the weekend the latest consumer sentiment survey for the US, the one by the University of Michigan, reported a sharpish retreat of sentiment in November from October. But to be fair it is still 6.5% higher than a year ago. Almost all the fall is in the 'current conditions' component. The future expectations component rose marginally. Of more concern is that the inflation expectations component rose somewhat to 4.4% for the year ahead. Long term inflation expectations in this survey hit a 12 year high of 3.2%.

Still in the US we should note that they regularly adjust their tax rate bands for inflation, avoiding bracket-creep. This year they rise by 5.4%, following last year’s +7% rise in the bands. The IRS released the details on Friday (NZT)

Staying in the US, Fed boss Powell was speaking and said it is too early for them to definitively announce the conclusion of its interest-rate hikes. But he didn't make a case for further rate hikes either. Powell was quite cautious acknowledging the dangers overtightening, while also noting the danger of being “misled by a few good months of data.” The tone reinforced they are not ready to declare an end to their tightening campaign, even though financial markets and many economists have concluded the central bank is done raising rates. He noted the supply-side benefits that have helped slow American inflation so far may have run their course, and repeated that stronger growth could warrant further tightening.

Japan and Korea are partnering up on building out hydrogen infrastructure, a major effort to decarbonise their domestic freight systems. They also signaled that they will cooperate closer on the technology around quantum technology and semiconductors. These agreements are expected to be signed on the side-lines of the San Francisco APEC meeting.

Also at that meeting, China has finally confirmed a worst-kept 'secret'; that President Xi will meet with the US President at the end of the week.

China’s October vehicles sales rose at a faster pace of +13.8% year-on-year to 2.85 mln units, a record high for an October. But still, that level was fractionally lower than for September, despite the rising levels of discounting in the drive to meet ever higher sales targets. Production is rising faster than sales now, so the crunch is on. Electric and hybrid sales were up +33% year-on-year to 956,000 units, now representing a third of all sales.

The world's biggest holiday shopping bonanza, Singles Day, or 11/11, peaked over the weekend. All indications are that gross sales might have exceeded last year's level by about +2.1% in value but volumes may have been higher and the intense, even extreme competition may in fact reinforce deflationary trends.

India's industrial production was up +5.8% from a year ago in September, a sharp slowdown from the 14-month high of a +10.3% gain in August. This is also well below market expectations of +7% year-on-year gain. Most key sectors are in retreat, especially for factory production and electricity production. Overall, industrial production fell -3.5% in September from August, with factories down -2.0% and electricity production down -6.6%. They won't want this recent trend to embed.

The OECD said 48 countries have signed a data sharing agreement for crypto asset reporting as part of their global tax transparency data sharing moves. The US, Canada, Japan, and the EU are core signers, as is Australia, Korea and Singapore. Tax haven like the British Channel Island and the Caymans are signed up too. But New Zealand is not on the list. Nor is China, Russia, or North Korea obviously.

We should note that ratings agency Fitch has maintained Australia's AAA rating with a 'Stable' outlook.

And staying in Australia, the RBA released its Monetary Policy Review with updated data and forecasts and noting there “was likely to be less progress” in bringing down inflation in the quarters ahead than it had previously thought, and that had increased the risks of inflation remaining higher for longer. They now see inflation only down to 3.5% by the end of next year, and to just 3% by the end of the following year.

Four of Australia's largest port operations, those owned by Dubai's DP World, are effectively shut down due to a cyber-attack on the company. They say no ransom demand has been made yet. But the failure has prompted government crisis meetings over the weekend and is leaving more than 30,000 containers stranded ahead of the year-end holiday season.

We should also note that the risk of a major volcanic eruption in the Icelandic town of Grindavik is suddenly very high and evacuations have begun.

The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from Saturday, now at 4.65%. 

The price of gold will start today at US$1939/oz and up +US$3/oz from this time Saturday.

Oil prices have firmed +50 USc overnight, to be just on US$77.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just on US$81.50/bbl. Both a much lower than a week ago however.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.9 USc and unchanged from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are a tad firmer at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also a touch firmer at 55.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on at 68.9, and little-changed.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$37,126 and down a mere -0.2% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been modest at just on +/- 0.6%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Chris Luxon remains unsure about whether he'll make it to APEC, as coalition talks continue.

The conference begins in San Francisco next week.

A week on from the final election results, National is working with ACT and New Zealand First to form a Government.

NZ Herald political reporter Adam Pearse says Luxon's coalition partners will need to form an agreement, making it unlikely that Luxon will get to depart for APEC.

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President Joe Biden is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the White House said, sharing an agreement in principle has been reached on a meeting later this month in San Francisco. 

Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stressed that the White House believes the best way to manage competition is through “intense diplomacy,” and said, “It’s going to be a constructive meeting. The president’s looking forward to it.” 

Pressed repeatedly on the meeting, Jean-Pierre said she “just confirmed it,” though a White House official later clarified that the press secretary “was speaking to the agreement in principle.” 

“We are planning for a constructive meeting between the leaders, but still working together to put those plans into place,” the official said Wednesday, noting that logistical details continue to be worked out. 

Biden is traveling to San Francisco on November 14 to host representatives from the 21 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation member economies for APEC Economic Leaders’ Week. 

The high-stakes meeting comes as the White House is navigating major wars in Ukraine and Israel, and amid growing competition with China as the US has worked to reestablish regular communication with Beijing following months of tension. Biden has frequently framed the battle between the world’s democracies and autocracies as a central issue of his presidency. Other key issues up for discussion include trade and the economy and human rights concerns. 

Biden has frequently pressed the importance of face-to-face interactions with world leaders as he seeks to foster improved relations. 

US officials have previously stopped short of confirming the Xi-Biden meeting, suggesting preparations were underway but noting that the Chinese government regularly confirms high-level meetings only at the last minute. 

Biden and Xi previously met face-to-face in November 2022 for a three-hour talk in Bali, Indonesia, at a G20 Summit, marking a step toward improving a souring –- but critical –- bilateral relationship. Since then, however, tensions have emerged over China’s spy balloon and restrictions on US investments in China. 

- by Betsy Klein, CNN

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The incoming National-led Government is expected to step up for two key international summits.

The Pacific Islands Forum and APEC are set to happen within the next few weeks- and it's likely Luxon will attend to represent New Zealand on a wider scale.

NZME business commentator Fran O'Sullivan explains what to expect in the coming weeks.

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The incoming National-led Government is expected to step up for two key international summits.

The Pacific Islands Forum and APEC are set to happen within the next few weeks- and it's likely Luxon will attend to represent New Zealand on a wider scale.

NZME business commentator Fran O'Sullivan explains what to expect in the coming weeks.

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Relations between the United States and China have slid to their lowest point since the 1970s. After President Biden and Xi Jinping met in November 2022, they instructed their senior officials to initiate a process to stabilize the relationship. Before much headway could be made, however, China sent a surveillance balloon to the west coast of the United States that ended up loitering over sensitive military sites and then flew across the entire country before being shot down by the US. Secretary of State Blinken postponed his planned visit to China. Acrimony and distrust spiked.  

Several months later, the US and China decided to try again. Blinken visited Beijing from June 18-19, and had meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, CCP Central Foreign Affairs Office Director Wang Yi, and State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang. What is the trajectory of the bilateral relationship after the visit? Is it possible to stabilize ties and resume dialogue mechanisms and some forms of cooperation, or is further deterioration of relations more likely? 

To discuss these issues, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Evan Medeiros, the Penner Family Chair in Asia Studies in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in U.S.-China Studies. During the Obama administration, Evan served for six years on the National Security Council as Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. 

Timestamps

[01:45] US-China Relations at this Juncture

[05:10] Deterioration of US-China Relations

[08:30] Analysis of Secretary Blinken’s Visit

[10:40] Principles Guiding US-China Relations

[13:16] Is agreement on principles a precondition for progress?

[13:48] Is the US-China relationship dominated by competition?

[16:45] Top-Down Pressure to Deny Competition

[18:30] Displacing the United States

[19:50] Where Blinken’s Visit Fell Short

[22:48] Putting a Floor Under the Relationship

[24:46] Interpreting Evolving Sino-Russian Relations

[28:15] China’s Initial Reaction to the War in Ukraine

[29:24] Forecast for US-China Relations                                                                                 

[31:57] Incentives for Stability