bayes theorem

One of the most important parts of reasoning well involves understanding how to change your beliefs in response to new information. Unfortunately, this is something almost none of us does well without training. In this workshop, Anna will walk you through the odds formulation of Bayes’ Theorem in order to identify the three independent components we need to update properly. Since Bayesian updating on the fly can be hard, you’ll practice implementing a bundle of trigger-action plans that studies have shown to be successful in helping people respond more accurately to new evidence.

This talk was taken from EA Global London 2021. Click here to watch the talk with the PowerPoint presentation. 

Effective Altruism is a social movement dedicated to finding ways to do the most good possible, whether through charitable donations, career choices, or volunteer projects. EA Global conferences are gatherings for EAs to meet. You can also listen to this talk along with its accompanying video on YouTube.

In today's episode, Patrick and Greg use the context of COVID rapid tests to discuss issues of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predicted values, and the generally questionable utility of test accuracy information. Along the way they also mention escape rooms, C4, Embassy Suites, palak paneer, 93% accurate, astragali, SAT prep courses, the volume of a cone, risk and burden, and digging up the Rev. 

Stay in contact with Quantitude!

• Twitter: @quantitudepod
• Web page: quantitudepod.org
• Merch: redbubble.com

In this episode we talk about all things Bayesian. What is Bayesian inference and why is it the cornerstone of Data Science?

Bayesian statistics embodies the Data Scientist and their role in the data modelling process. A Data Scientist starts with an idea of how to capture a particular phenomena in a mathematical model - maybe derived from talking to experts in the company. This represents the prior belief about the model. Then the model consumes data around the problem - historical data, real-time data, it doesn't matter. This data is used to update the model and the result is called the posterior.

Why is this Data Science? Because models that react to data and refine their representation of the world in response to the data they see are what the Data Scientist is all about.

We talk with Dr Joseph Walmswell, Principal Data Scientist at life sciences company Abcam, about his experience with Bayesian modelling.

Further Reading

• Publication list for Dr. Joseph Walmswell (https://bit.ly/3s8xluH via researchgate.net)
• Blog on Bayesian Inference for parameter estimation (https://bit.ly/2OX46fV via towardsdatascience.com)
• Book Chapter on Bayesian Inference (https://bit.ly/2Pi9Ct9 via cmu.edu)
• Article on The Monty Hall problem (https://bit.ly/3f1pefr via Wikipedia)
• Podcast on  "The truth about obesity and Covid-19", More or Less: Behind the Stats podcast (https://bbc.in/3lBqCGS via bbc.co.uk)
• Gov.uk guidance:
  • Article on "Understanding lateral flow antigen testing for people without symptoms" (https://bit.ly/313JDs9)
  • Article on "Households and bubbles of pupils, students and staff of schools, nurseries and colleges: get rapid lateral flow tests" (https://bit.ly/3c5ZXih)

Some links above may require payment or login. We are not endorsing them or receiving any payment for mentioning them. They are provided as is. Often free versions of papers are available and we would encourage you to investigate.

Recording date: 16 March 2021
Interview date: 26 February 2021

Thanks for joining us in the DataCafé. You can follow us on twitter @DataCafePodcast and feel free to contact us about anything you've heard here or think would be an interesting topic in the future.

Patrick and Greg impulsively launch the inaugural segment of "Quantitude Wake Up Call" where they forget how longitude works and call Bayesian expert Roy Levy at 5:40 in the morning. Although somewhat rattled, Roy helps the Quantidudes better understand Bayesian inference and describes the many ways that this approach can help move our science forward. Along the way they discuss Jedi mind tricks, the birds and the bees, time zones, Virgos, the Dark Side, cowards, subjectivity, lecturing bus drivers, sideways fish, and statistical pop-up books. 

Stay in contact with Quantitude!

• Twitter: @quantitudepod
• Web page: quantitudepod.org
• Merch: redbubble.com