david bauer

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Cargill, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about in the week ahead.

We are officially into fall but looking around the Midwest, the combines have yet to be fully engaged. Initial discussions are quite typical with those saying production will be up and others saying it will be down. Based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest production numbers from September 10, corn and soybeans both are still thought to making a good showing this season. Time will tell, says Bauer.

These are uncertain times, and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com

Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Cargill, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about in the week ahead.

The markets saw a slight bounce off of the previous week.

Across much of the Midwest, harvest has begun but probably best not to rush, says Bauer, given that ports are still backlogged and facilities on the mend for Hurricane Ida. 

These are uncertain times, and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com

Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Cargill, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about in the week ahead.

These are uncertain times, and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com

Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about in the week ahead.

USDA may have reported corn yields would drop 5 bu./acre this season but how likely is that really? Bauer shares his thoughts. What about beans? He digs into that too.

Pork exports were down from the week prior and for the four-week average. Profitability on hogs is heading downward, with breakeven expected in December to January period before regaining some strength thereafter. 

These are uncertain times, and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com

Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about in the week ahead.

African swine fever (ASF) became public three years ago in China. While some would question the messaging currently coming out of China, the fact of the matter is that China will indeed achieve pre-ASF status. As a result, U.S. pork exports could be impacted. Fortunately, though, for the U.S. market, as exports to China have softened, so have U.S. slaughter trends. What’s ahead? Bauer explains.

These are uncertain times, and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com

Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about in the week ahead.

Prices reacted to demand this past week as well as anticipated tighter supply expected this coming fall and winter from PRRS and PEDv impacts.

Supply chain disruptions are feared with the pending reduction of line speeds at slaughter plants, which has left wholesalers and retailers competing for available supplies to prepare for the potential of less pork in the coming weeks and months. The result was an increase in the pork cutout this week to a seven-week high.

These are uncertain times, and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com

Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about in the week ahead.

Mexico led all purchases for the week, followed by Japan and then China at 16%. China continues to be flush with pork as the liquidation of pigs from African swine fever provides plenty of pork in the short term. What’s going on in terms of slaughter and the cutout? Take a listen. Bauer explains. 

These are uncertain times, and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com

Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think in the week ahead.

This week there was finally some relaxing of the market’s wild ride but Bauer isn’t so sure it’s going to hold. He explains. 

Exports were disappointing for the week. Mexico led all buyers. What’s the trend there?

These are uncertain times, and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com

Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think in the week ahead.

Weekly pork exports were the fourth largest of the year. Mexico led all  buyers followed by China. What's it all mean? Take a listen.

These are uncertain times, and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com

Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

Let’s talk about the 11 seasons of the year, and as we do, let’s also look at pork exports and what’s going on there. What's happening in global shipments and demand? Take a listen.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. 

Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

Spring is ahead and we are so ready. Planting is on the horizon here in the Midwest and already underway in some area of the country. The weather forecast is even looking positive for farmers this spring.

Likewise, China has returned to the pork market as African swine fever continues to drive slaughter there. What’s ahead and what does it all mean for U.S. pork producers? Take a listen to find out.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

In typical years, the January-February period is like trudging through the forest looking for something to take hold of. This year, however, has been more like ascending to a summit peak. The current market is definitely a market on the move! Bauer explains.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

What could China’s new testing protocols on imported cold-chain items mean for pork coming into that country? Bauer says among other things it  certainly could slow down shipping and clearance times. Even though the World Health Organization does not support China’s claims of COVID on cold-processed items, China continues to test. 

 What about China’s sow herd? Bauer says it’s headed upward according to reports. Where is China at in it's rebuild? Bauer explains. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

As we are coming out of the holiday disruption period and Columbus Junction comes back on board, the kill this week is estimated to reach 2.58 million head, which would be a new record if achieved. With plants now providing the COVID-19 vaccine to workers there is a renewed level of confidence shaping up. Kill levels will likely reflect that going forward. 

How did we end 2020 in terms of kill and where are we at in terms of exports? Take a listen. Bauer explains.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we prepare for a new year.

There still a large book of 2020 purchases to be shipped to China but those will likely be rolled into the new year rather than canceled, say Bauer. There was a speed bump on the slaughter side of things this past week as the Columbus Junction pork plant ran into some mechanical issues and diverted hogs to other plants. What has that done to slaughter numbers and what’s been the market impact? What will the upcoming holidays mean for weekly totals? Take a listen.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we prepare for next week.

What’s ahead for the last couple weeks of the year for grains and hogs? Export reports give us little insight. What about profitability?  What about China and its herd size?  There seems to be several different thoughts about what China is up to.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

It's the season for that time-honored tradition of getting out the turkey fryer. Although this year travel restrictions will likely reduce the group size at the table, Provimi senior market analyst David Bauer encourages you all to take time to prepare your own personal feast of celebration and maybe even to consider pork as an option. He’s just not sure how exactly that loin will cook up in the fryer. 

The accumulated slaughter over the past five weeks has averaged 2.688 million head, according to Bauer. Over that period, the average weekday kill has been 485,760 head. The first four days this week averaged 491,500 head, but the three-week average for Friday has been just over 483,000 head. So, let's say we're able to reach 480,000 head Friday and right now Saturday is estimated at 279,000 head that would produce a 2.75 million head kill for the week. Unless USDA comes back with adjustments on Monday due to plant or labor issues, Bauer believes that should stick. Weights were up 1.5 lb. last week, as year-to-date slaughter remains 1% over last year with pork production 1.8% over last year. Bauer believes non-holiday weeks into yearend could remain either side of 2.7 million head per week, unless there are issues around plant or plant labor due to COVID concerns. New pork sales fell 22% from last week.

China has slowed down on new purchases and Bauer thinks we need to get used to that. Although year to date accumulated shipments and outstanding sales are currently 118% of last year, he said we won't see those kinds of numbers in 2021 as herd growth in China and a gradual increase in pork production is anticipated.

What’s ahead for profitability? Bauer explains.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

It seems we've learned just how little we know about the dynamics of what a global pandemic can do to our society and the supply chains that feed us and our world. As Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi points out in this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, a recent series of interviews with five hog industry economists suggested optimism heading into 2021, but also they all asked the question of whether we, as an industry, learned enough about what happens when we can't process and distribute what we produce? Put another way, said Bauer, will producers realize increasing supply is not the answer to what's ahead in the next couple of years. As China regains its ability to supply its own pork as it did before African swine fever, it will need to import less pork. Today, some 25 to 30% of our pork exports go to China.

On the topic of forward profitability, Bauer is more concerned about what 2021 brings in the way of stronger feed costs and what that does to forward profitability than pork demand. What’s possibly ahead? Take a listen.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

This week’s hog market brought an accumulated slaughter after the first four days that was the strongest opening for any week since the big kills back in March, according to Dave Bauer, senior market analyst with Provimi.

If this average is added to this Saturday's estimate of 272,000 head, this week's killed could land at 2.73 million head, 1.5% over last week and 1% over last year. In recent months, this week would be second only to the 2.73 million head over four weeks ago.

Bauer noted that if this kill holds up for the week, chain speed would now be just 1.5% below the stated weekly capacity of 2.767 million head. This is a great milestone for the packer and the efforts of management and the labor force should be applauded. 

Net new pork sales this week were up 46% over last week and up 18% versus the four-week average. Mexico, once again led with 35% of the total followed by China at 24.5%. New 2021 sales of 800 metric tons suggest that maybe last week 7,000 metric ton sale may have been a blip on the map, but hopefully we can see bigger 2021 sales start to be commonplace, said Bauer.

What’s ahead for producer profit margins? What influence might the grain market have? Is $9.50 corn ahead? Bauer explains.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

This has been a week of strong kills, logging another day on Tuesday at 492,000 head. Packers continue to have high hopes each day, aiming for those 2.7 million head weekly kills. Still, there are some feelings that COVID fears may be creating concerns to labor again, says Dave Bauer, senior market analyst with Provimi. This latest resurgence of COVID cases in rural America, even though more in the non-processing community, doesn't keep plant workers from being concerned about being around crowds. 

Over the past three Fridays, kills have averaged 487,000 head and approximately 260,000 head over the past three Saturdays. With those kinds of numbers this week, we would have a chance at 2.7 million head killed. That is, of course, if Thursdays 492,000 head estimate stands and isn't adjusted lower. Weekly runs of 2.7 million head seem to be getting harder to achieve, says Bauer.

Producer weights have plateaued over the past couple of weeks, around 214 lb. and packer weights have backed off a pound or so. There has been an abrupt correction to prices. Depending on how the cutout finishes, the week will dictate packer appetite for market hogs come Monday. Pork exports on Thursday, put net 2020 sales at 29,000 metric tons with 2021 new sales of 7,000 metric tons, for a combined 35,000 metric tons of new forward sales. Bauer says it been a great week, for sure, and all in the absence of China only taking 2,500 metric tons of pork. What can we expect from China in the near term? What’s ahead in terms of profitability for producers? Bauer gives his thoughts in this latest episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com