diplomatic

Recent speeches by Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reiterated the Trump administration’s China-related grievances, yet they also revealed a new openness to engagement with China. Paul Haenle spoke with Michael Swaine, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how a more thoughtful approach to the bilateral relationship might look, as well as what recent changes in the Trump administration’s rhetoric about Beijing reveal.

Swaine said Beijing’s transformation into a more ideological, party-driven, assertive, and capable power has raised questions in the United States over the efficacy of engagement. The Trump administration, however, has been too simplistic in its assessment of China and presented a one-dimensional “cartoonish” picture of Beijing. In doing so, it has failed to articulate a nuanced approach that addresses the real challenges China pose. Recent polls highlight that most Americans still prefer positive relations with Beijing but are concerned about China’s more assertive behavior at home and abroad. Different definitions of human rights, among other issues, limit the possibility of future cooperation. However, Swaine argued recent speeches by senior Trump administration officials may indicate a new attitude toward Beijing–one that does not completely reject engagement. Swaine argued this shift in tone is due to the administration’s realization that American allies and partners have serious misgivings about its zero-sum view of its relationship with China. Swaine cautioned, however, that U.S.-China relations are unlikely to improve substantially in the near future, especially if Beijing continues to be unwilling to take greater responsibility to address growing international concern surrounding its rise.

Is the current downturn in U.S.-China relations different from anything the two countries have experienced before? Paul Haenle sat down with Daniel Russel, vice president for International Security and Diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute and former assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, to reflect on why bilateral relations have deteriorated and what each country can do to right the ship, as well as expectations for diplomacy on the Korean peninsula in 2020.

Russel said the ongoing downturn in U.S.-China ties is different from past pendulum swings and that there is a real possibility the two countries could enter a downward spiral that would be difficult to reverse. He attributed part of the deterioration to China’s growing assertiveness and exploitative economic practices, many of which have provoked the United States, as well as other countries, to push back. Russel also highlighted the Trump administration’s abandonment of a multilateral, deliberate, and solutions-oriented approach to foreign policy. The administration has taken a “wrecking ball” to China policy solely to halt Beijing's rise and express American grievances, Russel said. Escaping this negative spiral will require good-faith actions from both countries. Beijing needs to recalibrate its feedback mechanisms, which have prevented it from understanding how other countries perceive its actions, and should narrow the “say-do” gap that has eroded China’s credibility in the United States and around the world. Along with revising its wrecking-ball approach, the Trump administration needs to resist the temptation to adopt illiberal tactics, such as restricting Chinese investment and limiting people-to-people exchanges. On North Korea, Trump has humiliated American allies, ignored Pyongyang's violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions, and ceded important leverage to Kim Jong-un, Russel said. Put simply, Kim has demonstrated he has a strategy while Trump has demonstrated he does not.

A Trump-Kim Love Affair

Scott Snyder joins host Hamsini Hariharan to discuss the recent nuclear tensions on the Korean peninsula to make sense of the diplomatic outreach. For questions or comments, reach out to the host @HamsiniH or on Instagram @statesofanarchy Read More:

• Meltdown: The Inside Story of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis by Mike Chinoy

• The Peninsula Question: A Chronicle of the Second Korean Nuclear Crisis by Yoichi Funabashi

• The Real North Korea: Life and Politics in the Failed Stalinist Utopia by Andrei Lankov

• The Impossible State: North Korea, Past and Future by Victor Cha

• South Korea at the Crossroads: Autonomy and Alliance in an Era of Rival Powers by Scott Snyder

• The Japan-South Korea Identity Clash: East Asian Security and the United States by Scott Snyder

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Today host @d_twit welcomes a self-avowed #POOLIGAN who just so happens to have spent a lifetime protecting others. Michael tells us about his life-long career in law enforcement, from his beginning as a police office in Louisiana to finding his calling at the State Department's Diplomatic Security Service. From his insights into the many places he visited, to his unique insights into what happend and who was at fault in Benghazi, to his view on today's State Department -- you'll be riveted by this very special guest and his impressive life of service.

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Iceland Diplomatic Boycott (50' - 56')

USA World Cup Bid (56' - 62')

Zlatan to LA Galaxy (62' - End)

President Trump shocked the world when he agreed to meet with North Korean dictator Kim-Jong Un.  While there’s reason to be skeptical of Kim’s motives and tactics, we should all acknowledge that the President has managed to secure a major diplomatic breakthrough in the crisis. 

Now comes the hard work of making the meeting a productive one. North Korea has long dangled the prospect of disarmament in return for various concessions from America and its allies. Never before has the rogue regime been willing to keep to its promises, or to truly negotiate in good faith.  It’s possible the North Koreans are simply using the meeting as a ploy—an opportunity to make “asks” that will be impossible for American negotiators to agree to.

President Trump deserves credit for getting us to this point. But it’s important that he remains vigilant as we approach the murky waters ahead.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Trump shocked the world when he agreed to meet with North Korean dictator Kim-Jong Un.  While there’s reason to be skeptical of Kim’s motives and tactics, we should all acknowledge that the President has managed to secure a major diplomatic breakthrough in the crisis. 

Now comes the hard work of making the meeting a productive one. North Korea has long dangled the prospect of disarmament in return for various concessions from America and its allies. Never before has the rogue regime been willing to keep to its promises, or to truly negotiate in good faith.  It’s possible the North Koreans are simply using the meeting as a ploy—an opportunity to make “asks” that will be impossible for American negotiators to agree to.

President Trump deserves credit for getting us to this point. But it’s important that he remains vigilant as we approach the murky waters ahead.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Despite intense scrutiny and analysis surrounding China’s economy, there is still no consensus on how best to understand China’s increasingly complex markets. How should we view China’s economy and what are key indicators for its future development? In this podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with Carnegie Senior Fellow Yukon Huang to discuss his new book, Cracking the China Conundrum: Why Conventional Economic Wisdom Is Wrong and evaluate pressing issues in U.S.-China economic relations.

While President Trump appoints new officials to his administration and reviews policy frameworks, Asia-Pacific leaders are moving ahead. Since taking office, Trump has grappled with consequential developments in the region from North Korea's ballistic missile tests to the removal of South Korea's Park Geun-hye. In part one of this two-part podcast, Paul Haenle discussed the future of U.S. strategy in the Asia-Pacific under the Trump administration with Dr. Michael Green, CSIS Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair, Georgetown University professor, and former senior director for Asia on the White House National Security Council.

The Trump administration has spurred a debate in the United States on how to best manage the complex bilateral relationship with Russia. Paul Haenle sat down with Carnegie scholars Andrew Weiss, Paul Stronski, and Alexander Gabuev on the sidelines of the Carnegie Global Dialogue to discuss the implications of changes in the Trump administration's Russia and China policies for China-Russia relations.

Dr. Evan Medeiros, former NSC Senior Director for Asian Affairs under the Obama administration, and Paul Haenle, former NSC China Director under the George W. Bush administration, pick apart the significance of President Trump's phone call to Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday night, in which Trump said the U.S. would honor our "One China" policy, and look at what's next in the U.S.-China relationship.

Two weeks into President Trump’s first term, the White House has launched a review of its North Korea policy. Dealing with the threat from Pyongyang's missile launches and nuclear weapons program is likely to top the administration's security agenda in the region. Paul Haenle spoke with Tong Zhao, a fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program based at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, about how North Korea and other regional security challenges will fit into the new context for U.S.-China relations under the Trump administration.

In the wake of Donald Trump's inauguration, uncertainty looms over the future of U.S China policy. In part two of this two-part podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Chen Dingding, an international relations professor at Jinan University and Founding Director of the Intellisia Institute, about the Chinese reaction to Trump’s election and his views on how it could impact future bilateral relations.

As Donald Trump’s inauguration approaches, uncertainty looms over the future of U.S China policy. In part one of this two-part podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Chen Dingding, an international relations professor at Jinan University and Founding Director of the Intellisia Institute, about the Chinese reaction to Trump’s election and his views on how it could impact future bilateral relations.

Donald Trump’s election promises to inject greater uncertainty and contention into the trade and investment relationship between the United States and China. In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Claire Reade, a senior associate with the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a senior counsel at Arnold & Porter, about her experience shaping the development of U.S.-China trade and economic ties over the past decade.

Donald Trump's election in the 2016 U.S. presidential race ushers in a period of considerable uncertainty in regard to the future of U.S. policies in the Asia-Pacific and vis-a-vis its relationship with China. In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Dr. Zhao Hai, a research fellow at the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University, about China’s initial reactions to Donald Trump’s election and the implications for U.S.-China relations.

Paul Haenle and Adm. Roughead discuss what the US should do to enforce the tribunal ruling on the South China Sea and why North Korea's latest nuclear and ballistic missile tests are so significant.

Carnegie-Tsinghua Director Paul Haenle speaks with Dr. Michael J. Green, senior vice president for Asia and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, on topics such as the successes and failures of Obama's most recent trip to the G20 and ASEAN-U.S. Summit, tensions in the U.S.-Phillipines relationship, and North Korea's most recent nuclear test.