duke johnson

Episode Notes

Summary

Jen, Chris, and Brandon go over the action from Week 15 (so far) of the NFL season from a fantasy perspective. Jen airs her weekly must-listen Fantasy Festivus grievance, Chris tells us who surprised him from Week 15's games, and Brandon goes through some buy-or-sell options as Week 16 approaches. The trio also gets you set for Week 16 with look-ahead advice. 

Topics Discussed

Sunday Surprises (3:46)

Buy Or Sell (21:46)

Week 16 Looking Ahead (34:20)

Links

4for4 aFPA (adjusted fantasy points allowed) tool

Underdog Fantasy Promo

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Hosts: Jen Eakins, Chris Allen, Brandon Niles

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Mailbag: brandon@4for4.com

The Boys are back to look at the Houston Texans and provide players analysis and predictions looking ahead to the 2021 NFL Fantasy Football Season. 

Chris Pinto from Belly Up Fantasy stop by to talk shop and takes part in this team analysis episode
Connect with Chris on Twitter https://twitter.com/AggieKappaSig

Players Examined:
QB: Deshaun Watson
RB: David Johnson & Duke Johnson
WR: Will Fuller V & Brandin Cooks
TE: Darren Fells & Jordan Akins
 
Please drop us a rating and subscribe where you listen to podcasts to get the latest from The Good Old Boys Fantasy Football Podcast.

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Alex Gelhar is here to give you his top waiver-wire pickups for Week 10.  Alex first recaps the biggest news coming out of Week 9, including injury updates on Justin Jackson, Preston Williams, and Nick Chubb. After that he turns his attention to the Week 10  waiver wire, profiling the best quarterbacks (6:06), running backs (6:40), wide receivers (9:30),  and tight ends (11:50) to target before Week 10 arrives. Don't put in your waiver claims without listening to this episode first.

Host: Alex Gelhar - @AlexGelhar

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Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Pat Kerrane joins Greg to talk about the concept of projection errors and how those errors should impact our fantasy analysis, with a general slant toward the running back position and ZeroRB structural drafting. Your hosts identify key sources of projection errors, with conversation about which sources are most easily identified and exploited. The discussion then turns toward specific cases where projection errors figure to pop up for the 2020 NFL season. Which teams are the most difficult to project? Which teams are likely being over-projected, and which teams are likely being under-projected? Tune in to find out.

Links

ZeroRB with Pat Kerrane on the Establish The Run Podcast
How to Hit on a Later-Round RB by Pat Kerrane
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Pat Kerrane - @PatKerrane
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

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The Good Old Boys Fantasy Football

Hosts: Derek, Alex, and Kevin

The Boys continue to look at teams and their players for next season examining team tendencies and player relevancy for next year.  This week’s team is the Houston Texans.  The guys give their predictions on the round players will be taken in.

Players examined:

Running Back: David Johnson & Duke Johnson

Wide Receivers: Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller V, & Randall Cobb 

QB: Deshaun Watson

The Boys also release their initial consensus QB rankings for the year in this episode going 1-24 for the upcoming 2020 fantasy year.

Please drop us a rating and subscribe where you listen to podcasts to get the latest from The Good Old Boys Fantasy Football Podcast.

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YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNwajnlRWTiGVrNaZWC_T8w?

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Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Anthony Amico joins Greg for another best ball draft strategy bonanza, but the episode begins with a more general news discussion of the recent trade of Brandin Cooks from the Rams to the Texans, plus Kansas City's signing of DeAndre Washington. From there, your hosts dive into best ball, starting with an assessment of the ZeroRB draft strategy. Anthony makes his case for how it can work and details some of the nuances to keep in mind when navigating through a structured drafting approach. Next, the conversation turns to Anthony's machine learning prospect models for running backs and wide receivers, explaining how he uses the models' hit-rate estimates to help find values with rookies in best ball drafts. Around the 25-minute mark, Greg and Anthony dive headfirst into wide receivers, kicking things off with Corey Davis, AJ Brown, and DeVante Parker as examples of some of the different types of wideouts you can target in best ball. Then they go back to the top of wide receiver ADP and work their way down, from potential busts in the top tier down to rookies and other intriguing dart throws in the double-digit rounds. As if that wasn't enough, tight end talk kicks off around the 63-minute mark. Your hosts identify some of the best late-round values at the position, then use that frame of reference to discuss which higher-ranked tight ends are worth their best ball draft costs.

Links

RB Prospect Model by Anthony Amico
WR Prospect Model by Anthony Amico
Best Ball ADP at 4for4.com
FFPC WR Win Rates by Andrew Fleischer
Fanball WR Win Rates by Andrew Fleischer
FFPC TE Win Rates by Jennifer Eakins
Fanball TE Win Rates by Jennifer Eakins
How Draft Dates Impact Best Ball Scoring by Justin Edwards
7 Players to Target in Best Ball before the NFL Draft by 4for4's Staff
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Anthony Amico - @amicsta
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

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Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, John Paulsen joins Greg to identify fantasy football's winners and losers from the NFL's free agency period. The conversation begins at running back, headlined by the trade of David Johnson to Houston.  Quarterbacks are next, as some passers like Tom Brady have new homes, while others have new supporting casts. The discussion then turns to wide receivers and tight ends, where plenty of fantasy fortunes are set to change based on the spinning of the offseason's quarterback carousel.  The show winds down with a quick accounting of the highest profile players who are still available in free agency or by trade.

Links

Fantasy Free Agency Winners & Losers by John Paulsen
2020 Free Agency Tracker by John Paulsen
Never-Too-Early Fantasy Rankings by John Paulsen
2019 Deep Ball Project by John Kinsley
2018 Deep Ball Project by John Kinsley
Quarterback Next Gen Stats at NFL.com
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: John Paulsen - @4for4_John
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

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Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Sammy Reid joins Greg to recap Week 13 and work the Week 14 waiver wire in prep for the fantasy playoffs. They begin with a retrospective on the season so far, looking for commonalities in their most successful teams and lessons to take away from teams that weren't as good. Next, they dig into a Week 13 recap with booms/busts of the week and other standout notes. The second half of the show is a breakdown of the Week 14 waivers landscape. Who are the top must-own running back handcuffs heading into the fantasy playoffs? Do similar handcuff values exist at the wide receiver position? Who is the top add in 2QB/Superflex, and why is it Gardner Minshew? Who are the best streaming quarterback options in 1QB formats? Will Vance McDonald reestablish his fantasy value against the Cardinals? Who are the best defenses to stream this week? Tune in and find out the answers to these questions and many more.

The show is brought to you by FantasyDraft. Sign up using the promo code 4for4 and you’ll get a free 7-day trial membership.

Links

The Reid Option by Sammy Reid
The Gillcast with Sammy Reid, Davis Mattek, & Nate Nohling
Waiver Wire Articles at 4for4.com
Streaming Articles at 4for4.com
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Sammy Reid - @SammyReidFI
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

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Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Chris Allen joins Greg Smith to parse through the Week 4 Waiver Wire. They begin by discussing how to navigate bye weeks, as well as how to adjust your waiver approach after you've spent most of your FAAB. Then it's on to the various positions, beginning with running backs before moving on to wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, and team defenses. How will James White's return impact Rex Burkhead's fantasy value? What percentage of your remaining FAAB is Wayne Gallman worth? Which handcuff-type running backs have the most value off waivers? Would Deon Cain or Parris Campbell be the primary beneficiary if T.Y. Hilton misses time?  Why isn't Kenny Stills owned in more leagues? Does Auden Tate matter? How about Demetrius Harris and Dawson Knox? How are we applying the small amount on data we have on newly appointed starting quarterbacks to our Week 4 waiver decisions? After your hosts sort through all these topics and more, they wrap up the show with suggestions for players to drop  and some  position-agnostic waiver rankings  of players with the most raw value in a vacuum.

The show is brought to you by FantasyDraft. Sign up using the promo code 4for4 and you’ll get a free 7-day trial membership.

Links

QB Streamers at 4for4 by Chris Allen
Weekly Weather Reports & Players To Drop by Chris Allen
Chris Allen's Archives at Fantrax
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Chris Allen - @ChrisAllenFFWX
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

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Summary
On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Josh ADHD joins Greg Smith to work the Week 3 waiver wire. Their first task is to react to Week 3's injuries and look at backup players as potential pick-ups. From there, your hosts go through all their other key waiver targets for the week, starting with shallow and more obvious players, then going deeper toward lesser-owned players on the outskirts of consideration. The show wraps up with a tougher conversation about which likely-rostered players might be worth dropping, including a hot take from Josh on a player who was highly coveted in drafts.

The show is brought to you by FantasyDraft. Sign up using the promo code 4for4 and you’ll get a free 7-day trial membership.

Links
RotoGrinders
FantasyADHD.com
The Training Room: Week 3 Injury Updates by Russ Manalastas
Waiver Wire Articles at 4for4.com
Streaming Articles at 4for4.com
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Josh ADHD - @Josh_ADHD
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

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Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Josh ADHD joins Greg Smith and they discuss all their major takeaways from Week 2 so far.  They start by reviewing the impacts of injuries to Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater, plus other big picture topics that captured their attention.  Next, your hosts pick their booms of the week, headlined by multiple members of the 49ers offense. The show then winds down with Josh and Greg's busts of the week, including a number of Week 1 studs who didn't show up again in Week 2.

The show is brought to you by FantasyDraft. Sign up using the promo code 4for4 and you’ll get a free 7-day trial membership.  

Links

RotoGrinders
FantasyADHD.com
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest:  Josh ADHD - @Josh_ADHD
Host:  Greg Smith - @gregsauce

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Email:  hello@4for4.com

Summary
Special guest Christopher Harris joins the pod! Jerry Jones expects Zeke to miss games, how should owners react? When is Melvin Gordon a draft day value? How does Andrew Luck's retirement impact TY Hilton and Marlon Mack? Will Jacoby Brissett be streamable? Is Josh Gordon worthy of a sixth round pick? Is there any value in the New England passing game now after Gordon's return? Is Duke Johnson worthy of a fifth round pick as the likely RB1 in Houston? Can owners mine for value in the Seattle receiving corps? John and Christopher answer these questions and more on the latest episode of The Most Accurate Podcast.

Links
HarrisFootball.com
Subscribe to 4for4
Guest: Christopher Harris - @HarrisFootball
Host: John Paulsen - @4for4_John

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Twitter: @4for4football
Facebook: www.facebook.com/4for4football
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Special guest Andy Behrens (Yahoo Fantasy) joins the pod! Is a stud tight end necessary? Which tight end in the second tier stands out the most? What are the fallback options in the middle rounds? Which sleeper tight ends should owners target on draft day? Risers/fallers: What is a good round for Josh Gordon? Is Duke Johnson a viable RB2 in PPR formats? Is Nick Chubb really a first rounder? Is Tony Pollard a good middle round target? Is Chris Carson worthy of a third round pick? Is Emmanuel Sanders a safe pick after his Achilles tear? Is Miles Sanders going to return value near the 5/6 turn? How much of a hit do TY Hilton and Marlon Mack take after Andrew Luck's retirement? Is it likely that Melvin Gordon reports before midseason? Will Dante Pettis start for the 49ers? Is Kenyan Drake a post-hype and post-injury sleeper? Is Keke Coutee worthy of an 11th round pick? What about Christian Kirk in the 7th? John and Andy answer these questions before tackling some of 2019's most divisive players, including Kyler Murray, Todd Gurley and Damien Williams.

Guest: Andy Behrens (@andybehrens)

Summary
Greg Smith is joined by Rudy Gamble to break down the impact of Andrew Luck's retirement on his Colts teammates in fantasy, as well as Duke Johnson's outlook in Houston now that Lamar Miller is lost for the season. Greg then grills Rudy on his projections process, specifically relating to tight ends, before pivoting into a short conversation about auction strategy and dollar value projections. They close out the show with a discussion of the tight end position as a whole. Which upper-tier tight ends are liable to bust? Where can drafters find value at the position in later rounds? What are the advantages in joining the cult of Darren Waller? Listen in and find out.

This podcast is brought to you by DRAFT, where you can use the promo code 4for4 with your first deposit to get a free $3 best ball draft.

The show is also brought to you by DraftKings. Go to 4for4.com/draftkings and follow the instructions to get a free 4for4 membership with your first deposit on DK.

Links
Razzball.com
Target Share Analysis: Where Do Missing Targets Go? by Rudy Gamble
12-Team Expert PPR Mock Draft with Rudy & Greg
Tight End ADP Report at 4for4.com
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Rudy Gamble - @rudygamble
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

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Summary
Greg Smith is joined by Dalton Del Don to review the running back position for fantasy football in 2019. After Dalton explains his preferred draft strategy with extreme positional biases, offseason running back news is discussed. Topics include the Duke Johnson trade, the holdouts of Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley's problematic knee, Theo Riddick's departure from Detroit, and Indianapolis' signing of D'Onta Foreman. Later, your hosts offer up more general strategies for the running back positions, looking at potential top-12 busts, running backs to target in various ranges of the draft, which committees to embrace or avoid, and super deep RB sleepers.

This podcast is brought to you by DRAFT, where you can use the promo code 4for4 with your first deposit to get a free $3 best ball draft.

The show is also brought to you by DraftKings. Go to 4for4.com/draftkings and follow the instructions to get a free 4for4 membership with your first deposit on DK.

Links
Zero WR Draft Strategy by Dalton Del Don
Running Back ADP Report at 4for4.com
Strength of Schedule by aFPA at 4for4.com
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Dalton Del Don (@daltondeldon)
Host: Greg Smith (@gregsauce)

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Twitter: @4for4football
Facebook: www.facebook.com/4for4football
YouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4football
Email: hello@4for4.com

This week we discussed breaking NFL news! We specifically talked about the recent ranking of NFL stadiums by nj.com, and we took on the larger issues surrounding the dispute between Baker Mayfield and Duke Johnson, Who has weighed in on which side of this issue and why. We discussed Roger Goodell’s threat to the Buffalo Bills and the options for the team’s new stadium. Why did the NFL decide not to suspend Ezekiel Elliott? 

We also circled around to news for the Thirst and Goal (TAG) Teams, the Seahawks, Steelers, and Eagles.  Russell Wilson grants scholarship money through his foundation. Can the Steelers’ Benny Snell do it all this year? Steelers fans hope so! How important will Jordan Howard be to the Eagles in 2019?

We held our third “Would You Rather” session where we choose between two great players and coaches in a series of rounds. 

Frane concocted the Thirst and Glory shot! We also tasted Ardbeg Ten Years Old Single Malt (Islay Scotch Whiskey - Islay whisky is Scotch whisky made on Islay, one of the southernmost of the Inner Hebridean Islands located off the west coast of Scotland. The whiskies of the distilleries along the southeastern coast of the island, Laphroaig, Lagavulin, and Ardbeg, have a smoky character derived from peat, considered a central characteristic of the Islay malts, and ascribed both to the water from which the whisky is made and to the peating levels of barley). We also sampled beer from Omission Brewing and Saison Dupont.

Shout out to After the Gridiron Podcast. This show features interviews with retired football players from the CFL and NFL. They will share their journey through football and discuss what they are doing in their lives now. Creator and host, Lyle Green, will navigate them through the interview and ask the questions they haven't been asked before. You will get a truly unique glimpse into the lives of these athletes and get to know them on a deeper level. On the web here and on Twitter @ATGridiron.

We held our world famous quiz and weekly Top Five (NFL Stadium Foods)! We gave a shout out during our TV reviews to Netflix’s The Last Kingdom and Dark.

Follow us at @GoalThirst on Twitter and @thirstand on Instagram. You can subscribe or simply visit our website at thirstandgoal.buzzsprout.com.

To send us a question or comment, email: podcastthirstandgoal@gmail.com. Leave us a voicemail at 818-350-2680 (Be aware: we may play it on the air).

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, presented by DRAFT, Evan Silva of EstablishTheRun.com joins Greg Smith for their annual fantasy football draft strategy deep dive. Kicking things off in the Fourth of July spirit, Evan identifies an early round player likely to celebrate newfound fantasy independence this season, then he discusses a pair of teams that captured his interest while editing Warren Sharp's 2019 Football Preview. After a quick check-in on the Dallas Cowboys' depth chart, Evan and Greg get to the meat of the episode, outlining how positional values and positional reliability should inform draft strategies. That conversation continues with an accounting of mid-round running backs and wide receivers to target depending on those early-round draft strategies drafters employ. Tune in and take your fantasy game to the next level.

Could Carlos Hyde be traded or released? Is Sammy Watkins trustworthy now that he's 100% healthy? Is John Brown flying under the radar? John Paulsen and Anthony Stalter discuss these topics and more in their latest podcast.