economicforecast

From confusing labor market reports to the volatility of geopolitics, you’ll want to tune into this episode to get a sneak peek of what’s ahead in 2024. Because if any group can make an economic update and 2024 forecast provocative, insightful, engaging, and even witty, It’s right here. Faced with all but certain economic volatility and uncertainty, the Odeon Capital Conversations team, consisting of Dick Bove, Mat Van Alstyne and John Aidan Byrne,  once again joined Geeks, Geezers, and Googlization hosts. In a spirited exchange, they unraveled the enigma of a staggering $65 trillion surge in managed assets, debated the impending turbulence of 2024's economic landscape, dissected the profound implications of a rapidly widening wealth gap, and shed light on prospects for a roaring GDP or recession. Leaving no stone unturned, they even covered GDP trends,, the impact of the Ukraine and Gaza wars, the fall of commercial real estate, and a comparison between the Sam Bankman-Fried and Bernie Madoff scandals.

Key Episode Highlights:

1. Economic Insights: The substantial increase in managed money in the United States has one of the top bank analysts in the country stumped. The team delved into the implications of this growth, including government deficits, rising debt, and the impact on household wealth.

2. Labor Market and Inflation: The conversation touched upon the challenges within the labor market, the confusing and contradictory monthly BLS reports, the potential impact of inflation, and the unpredictability of job gains, signaling stress among workers.

3. Wealth Gap and Financial Stability: Discussions centered on the rise in household debts, the surge in consumer spending, the fall of savings, and concerns regarding the wealth gap, as well as the potential need for universal basic income to address income inequality.

4. Future Predictions: And what would an end-of-year podcast be without predictions for 2024? Our guests shared their insights and predictions for the coming years, with surprising perspectives on economic and political outlook, with some foreseeing a potential recession while others were optimistic, even with major geopolitical challenges ahead.

Jeffrey Holst and Brian Levredge are back this week to talk about the current state of the market. They discuss how we have less than 6 months left until the next predicted recession and what is coming next. They discuss everything from where the market is headed to if COVID reset the recession clock, to how different regions and asset classes are going to be affected differently.

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00:00 Introduction

00:30 Theme

00:56 Disclaimer

01:12 Inventory is Down

02:38 Economic Theory

03:18 Industrial vs Multifamily

06:30 Migration's Effect

07:23 Market Indicators

08:20 Key Things to Remember

09:19 Is it a good time to Invest?

10:12 Covid Reset the Cycle

10:46 Uncertain Times

11:57 Interest Rates Trending Down

It's time for a little economic update! The latest episode of Geeks Geezers and Googlization dives into the uncertainty and chaos of the current economy and society. From the Silicon Valley Bank collapse to the rise of AI, Dick Bove, Mat Van Alstyne, and John Aidan Byrne from Odeon Capital Conversations share their expert insights on Wall Street and the economy. We learn about the consequences of the recent Federal Reserve actions, potential recession predictions, and how China and Russia's financial influence could impact the US. We discussed how the banking system and Federal Reserve are facing many issues, affecting the availability and cost of money. Consumers are likely to have less disposable income due to inflation, and businesses may have to sell products at higher prices to make a profit, further reducing consumer demand. We dug deep into the accelerating pace of change in the world due to artificial intelligence including highlights of a recent interview with Mark Seal, CEO of Sortium. Get ready to listen as we navigate through the Never Normal and the latest economic developments together.

The 2023 labor market is top of mind for many executives and business owners as they contemplate the future of work and its impact on their ability to grow. But what happens when the labor markets, job markets, and Federal Reserve collide? Will we see a hiring slowdown or labor market showdown? How has the pandemic forever altered labor markets? What are the trends and potential solutions for coming out on top of a labor showdown? To answer these questions and more, we welcome back Gad Levanon, chief economist at Burning Glass Institute and founder of the Labor Market Institute at The Conference Board. 

Why are the financial markets behaving so differently this year? Many of the stocks that have led the market over the last few years are struggling in 2021. The bond market is off to its worst start to a year this century. Joseph Tenaglia an Associate Director of Asset Allocation at WisdomTree Investments and I discuss the factors moving the markets and what the road ahead looks like for the economy and the financial markets.