global supply chains

Kevin Cassidy, Director and Representative to the Bretton Woods and Multilateral Organizations of the United Nations International Labour Organization Office in Washington, DC, highlights the main goals of the ILO in advancing social justice and promoting decent work that was adopted as the social justice definition from the Declaration of Philadelphia Convention which declared that “all human beings, irrespective of race, creed or sex, have the right to pursue both their material well-being and their spiritual development in conditions of freedom and dignity, of economic security and equal opportunity.”  ILO has four priority action programs: a transition from the informal to formal economy; a just transition towards an environmental and sustainable society; decent work outcomes in global supply chains; and decent work in crisis and post-crisis situations. Historically the ILO has largely focused its technical work on developing countries and emerging economies, however, it does engage in activities in developed economies.

In the wake of COVID and the war in Ukraine is it time to rethink global supply chain models? Is the war putting green tech progres in jeopardy? China's populations is shrinking and ageing, what does that mean for China and the world? What does recently discovered children's rock from the Ice Ages tell us about their lives and their place in the family?

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news US benchmark interest rates have risen sharply today with the UST 10yr reaching a 10 month high. The USD rose sharply too. And tech stocks took fright. The re-rating ahead of Thursday's US Fed meeting is getting a sharper focus as global inflationary impacts do not seem to be easing.

American inflation expectations rose to 6.0% in February from 5.8% in January, back to its November 2021 record high. The increase was widespread across age, education, and income groups. The same survey revealed that year-ahead household spending growth expectations increased sharply to +6.4% from +5.5% in January, reaching a new series high (a data series that started in June 2013). This increase was also broad-based across age, income, and education groups.

Foreign direct investment into China is up a lot in February from a year ago, but the base was unusually low in 2021.

But trouble is brewing in China as new hard pandemic lockdowns seem likely to trigger ‘shock waves’ across global supply chains, both worse and broader than last time. Observers are saying that another major port lockdown there could have a ‘phenomenal’ impact on global supply chains still recovering from two years of pandemic-related setbacks. Strict virus-containment efforts by local governments will weigh on cargo movement inside and out of China, and raise shipping prices and delays. It will trigger a faster exit by firms who once relied on Chinese supply, even if it is a hard thing to do. All of this will accelerate global price inflation. Your new phone is going to cost a lot more.

Inside China, their housing market is retreating. Central bank data shows that outstanding medium- and long-term loans to the household sector, mostly mortgage loans, declined in February for the first time since record started. And this is happening despite a series of support measures from the government. Copper and iron ore prices are easing again on the expectations China's home building industry is going to stay depressed for some time.

India may have low growth rates (for them), but they certainly do have high inflation. Both their PPI and CPI were expected to ease a little in February from the very high January levels, but in fact they rose again. The changes were marginal, but the levels are high. Producer prices are now +13.1% higher than a year ago. Consumer prices are +6.1% higher on the same basis.

The UST 10yr yield opens today at 2.11% and up +11 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold starts today at US$1961/oz and down a sharp -US$30/oz from this time yesterday.

And oil prices are also very much lower today, down a sharp -US$7/bbl. In the US they are now just on US$100.50/bbl. The international price is just over US$104/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar will open today marginally softer at just over 67.9 USc. But against the Australian dollar we are now at 93.8 AUc which is almost a +½c firming since this time yesterday and our highest in two months. Against the euro we are soft at 61.8 euro cents. But against the Japanese yen we are are at a four month high. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 73.4 and marginally lower.

The bitcoin price is little-changed today, down just -0.1% from this time yesterday to US$38,927. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.3%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

In this episode we chat to Julian Treger, CEO of Anglo Pacific who are a global natural resources royalty company listed on both the London Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange and aiming to become a leading natural resources company through investing in high-quality projects in preferred jurisdictions with trusted counterparties and underpinned by strong ESG principles.

With a diverse portfolio of assets in well established mining jurisdictions and a strong balance sheet to fund new acquisitions, it has a good base from which to grow. We discuss the recent acquisition of the Voisey Bay cobalt stream transaction and how it positions the company going forward.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• We learn from those who have walked the path before us. There are always generations that go before, that can hand down the lessons of the past in order to better secure a future.
• The best people to surround one's self with are those who can provide solutions in a positive way. It's not enough to simply point out challenges and issues.
• The mining sector is shifting from being a 19th century, industrial stereotype, to an integral part of cleanliness and responsibility.
• When the aerospace sector recovers from the impact of COVID, there will be a sharp need for more in the cobalt space, in which Anglo Pacific is well positioned.

BEST MOMENTS

'I had some beginner's luck'

'That quarter of a million dollar investment has led to a half-billion dollar royalty'

'I want to know how things can be done, not why they can't be done'

'We want to be part of the story of mining in the 21st century'

VALUABLE RESOURCES

Dig Deep – The Mining Podcast on iTunes

 Julian Treger Twitter - https://twitter.com/juliantreger?lang=en

Anglo Pacific - https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/leadership/

ABOUT THE HOST

Rob Tyson is an established recruiter in the mining and quarrying sector and decided to produce the “Dig Deep” The Mining Podcast to provide valuable and informative content around the mining industry. He has a passion and desire to promote the industry and the podcast aims to offer the mining community an insight to peoples experiences and careers covering any mining discipline, giving the listeners helpful advice and guidance on industry topics.

Rob is the Founder and Director of Mining International Ltd, a leading global recruitment and headhunting consultancy based in the UK specialising in all areas of mining across the globe from first world to third world countries from Africa, Europe, Middle East, Asia and Australia. We source, headhunt and discover new and top talent talent through a targeted approach and search methodology and have a proven track record in sourcing and positioning exceptional candidates into our clients organisation in any mining discipline or level. Mining International provides a transparent, informative and trusted consultancy service to our candidates and clients to help them develop their careers and business goals and objectives in this ever-changing marketplace.

CONTACT METHOD

rob@mining-international.org

https://www.linkedin.com/in/rob-tyson-3a26a68/

www.mining-international.org

https://twitter.com/MiningConsult

https://www.facebook.com/MiningInternational.org

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC69dGPS29lmakv-D7LWJg_Q?guided_help_flow=3