historical contexts

On today’s episode, Clay is joined by financial history expert, Jamie Catherwood, to discuss market forecasting, interest rates, and the efficiency of markets from a historical perspective. Jamie Catherwood is a Client Portfolio Specialist at O'Shaughnessy Asset Management and also the author of the popular blog, Investor Amnesia. IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 01:35 - Why we shouldn’t try to make market forecasts. 04:56 - Psychological biases that play into why investors are prone to forecast markets. 08:47 - How we can determine which market forecasts are worth putting weight on. 17:10 - Jamie’s thoughts on the AI craze of 2023. 25:52 - Jamie’s take on where interest rates may head from here. 30:23 - Broader consequences of zero percent interest rates and loose monetary policy. 33:59 - Historical examples of governments restructuring their debt. 40:47 - How investor access to information has impacted the efficiency of markets. 47:53 - Jamie’s favorite book from 2023. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members. Learn more about the Berkshire Summit by clicking here or emailing Clay at clay@theinvestorspodcast.com. Related Episode: TIP505: The Price of Time w/ Edward Chancellor | Youtube Video. Jamie’s blog: Investor Amnesia. Jamie’s Sunday Reads Blog. Marc Andreeson’s article: Why Software Is Eating the World. Books mentioned: Seeking Wisdom by Peter Bevelin, Confusion de Confusiones by Josef De La Vega, The Price of Time by Edward Chancellor, and Taming the Street by Diana B. Henriques. Follow Jamie on Twitter. Follow Clay on Twitter. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. NEW TO THE SHOW? Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota Linkedin Marketing Solutions Fidelity Efani Shopify NDTCO Fundrise Wise NetSuite TurboTax Vacasa NerdWallet Babbel HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As three analysts, we explore the archetype of “the gun” from a Jungian psychological view and seek to understand it’s influence in the collective psyche of Americans. Guns play a big role in American mythology from the American Revolution to cowboys and first-person shooter games. Guns are symbols of heroic power—but mythology also sounds a cautionary note about what can happen when humans arrogate super-human power to themselves.

The dream: 

When I was a child, around ages 7 to 8, I would dream that my bedroom was covered in lizards. I’d wake up and jump to the floor, run to my parents’ bed, and climb in between them. Sweating, I’d look up to see the eye of a red dragon. Suddenly I was in an old-time saloon and the dragon would just be staring at me. That ‘s all there was to it, but it was repetitive.