hog markets

While crop damage and crop loss are real and impactful, the recent storm that rolled over the Midwest, particularly parts of Iowa, took an even far greater toll. The real story is with the people in those cities and areas hard hit. Seeing it first-hand on recent trip through the area, Provimi senior market analyst, David Baur provides his perspective in leading off this week’s episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork.

In the hog world, Bauer believes sow herd reductions are going to reduce production in the last half of 2020. He notes there are signs of upside technical momentum on the charts.

The September hogs and pigs survey is being conducted and wraps up by Sept. 1. Market discussions now speak directly to the sow herd, summer pig crops and June's estimate for reduced fall farrowing, says Bauer.

Bauer believes this is all price positive. What's the word on forward profitability? He fills us in on that as well. Among other things, he says we are seeing more producers being able to reduce feed costs by bringing DDGs back into diets. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

Today’s markets are dealing with many varied and unforeseen influences, says Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi.

For example, Bauer points out that back in the spring, when COVID was first unfolding, the fear of the unknown put the weekly average cutout price in a three-week tailspin, down 32%. Then as hoarding became a thing, there came a 115% rally in just five weeks. Over the next seven weeks when people stopped hoarding toilet paper and meat long enough to realize how unwarranted their actions had been, the cutout fell to a secondary low. Current trends, as we know them, definitely for 2020, provide no predictive value when it comes to predicting what’s ahead. In fact, Bauer says as you're comparing to prior years, don't use 2020 as part of an average. This is similar to when we would leave 2014 out of an average because it was such an outlier. 

Speaking of trends, weekly pork exports this past week are starting to reflect a trend, but it's not a favorable trend, says Bauer. Net pork sales on Thursday, were only 10,500 metric tons, down 66% from last week and down 70% versus the four-week average. Mexico took 84% of that total. The biggest concern of this trend that's building, he notes, is the lack of China purchases over the past couple of weeks. In this episode, Bauer explains what’s behind all of that.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com
 

The COVID quarter, one of the worst quarters in global history, ends today and initial ideas are that second quarter GDP is estimated to have fallen by 32.9%, according to Provimi market analyst Dave Bauer. The U.S. also had the largest one-day sale of corn ever this past week to China at 1.9 metric tons, or approximately 76 million bushel. Pork exports sales this week were just under 40,000 metric tons, up 24% over last week and up 12% versus the four-week average. Of course, China led those purchases with 45% of the total, followed by Mexico, taking 40%. For the first time in a few weeks, actual shipments did slow down 12% versus last week and 3% below the prior four-week average, but still a strong number of 31,500 metric tons.

On the topic of slaughter plants, it was a tough start to the week. Mechanical and labor issues reduce the estimated kill by 22,000 head on Monday. But the rest of this week found its stride and the estimate for a 2.5 plus million head kill is again expected. Kill floors are maintaining a weekly run of roughly 93% of capacity, but now processing floors need to get out of the mid to upper 80% range and up to match the kill floor run rates. The challenge to get employees back to work are real and plants are doing all they can to create safe work environments. 

And what's the word on forward profitability? Take a listen.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this week's episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, market analyst Dave Bauer of Provimi, recaps some pork industry and market highlights and lists some of the things to think about in preparation for next week.

As Bauer explains, these days are filled with headlines and statistics that boggle the mind. We've gone from record employment to record unemployment in three months. In fact, the eating and drinking industry has lost more than three decades of jobs in the last two months. 

Speaking of the value put on employees that feed the needs of this consumer-driven society, Bauer says we all have come to realize just how important those employees are that keep chain lines running in the nation's packing plants. Although many of the pictures out there are likely used more for shock and awe, a day doesn't pass without seeing pictures of empty meat shelves. 

Pork packing plants are making great strides and what appear to be the right moves to ensure worker safety and confidence in the plant environment. With early estimates for a 239,000 head Saturday, kill weekly harvest is projected over 2 million head for the first time in five weeks. This would be a 17% increase over last week. But even with these gains in slaughter, the backlog of hogs is still growing based on the simple calculation of the difference in actual harvest versus that which was estimated in the March hogs and pigs report. 

Take a listen to find out what Bauer thinks lies ahead. What should you be thinking about for next week? We’ll explore that as well. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week's recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Thanks for listening and make sure you plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com.

In today’s episode, Provimi market analyst Dave Bauer explores this month’s cold storage report and weekly pork exports. While the U.S. Department of Agriculture brought us two reports this week that futures have now interpreted as positive price, all prices didn't reflect strong gains as producer prices were only up in a range of 1% to 5%. 

Strength in the pork cutout, Bauer says, is due to reduce chain speeds of roughly 25% to 30%. The resulting tightness in the pork output has increased competition for available pork supplies. Because these delays at the plant level have come just recently, the drawdown in March frozen supplies is simply strong exports and not likely supplies being pulled out of storage for current production decreases. At least, not just yet. What’s ahead for future and nearby profitability, Bauer explain. As, he notes, it takes a long time to turn an aircraft carrier.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well prepared. Provimi strives to provide the information you need to run a more precise pork system. If you have questions on this week's recap or want to discuss something I didn't cover, reach out and ASK DAVE at Dave_Bauer@cargill.com. Thanks for listening and make sure you plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com.

 

In this week’s episode, Dave Bauer, market analyst for Provimi, recaps some pork industry and market highlights as well as shares some things to think about going into the new week. 

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its weekly pork exports report showing a marketing year high totaling 55,900 metric tons. China again was the biggest buyer purchasing 71% of the total and its highest weekly bookings for the year. The real sauce to the weekly report was that weekly shipments were again strong at 39,200 metric tons, down 2.5% from year ago. China was again responsible for over 40% of those shipments. Bauer discusses what this means. 

He also looks at cash trends that supported futures a week ago but have fallen hard this week, putting a lid on the rally in June hog futures at 44% of the $30/cwt. drop of the past three weeks. As Bauer explains this is largely due to the backlog of pork that has occurred with the closing in the foodservice sector. Take a listen to find out where prices and the demand situation are headed. 

What should we be thinking about for next week? Bauer says it may well be a slowing of the production chain that could translate into a slowing of late phase performance in on-farm finishing units. 

Stay tune. These are unusual times and it will pay dividends to be well prepared, which is what Feedstuffs Precision Pork is all about, giving you the information you need to run a more precise pork system. 

For questions on this week's recap or to discuss other market questions, just ASK DAVE. 

As always: Plan today for tomorrow's success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com.

U.S. Department of Agriculture plantings and ending stocks estimates were released this past week and because this was a survey taken in the first weeks of March, and the world has changed drastically since then, Bauer notes that it's widely accepted that we'll need more time to fully grasp just what farmers will load into their planners in the weeks to follow. Quarterly grain stocks were a non-event for beans and wheat and slightly supportive of corn by number, but if we consider that last year we lost approximately 13 million acres to floods, late planning and an early winter and as of this report, at least farmers have shared the intent to bring back all those 13 million acres and a smidge more at roughly 14 million acres. 

Pork exports were released on Thursday with total net sales of 38.2 million metric tons down 1% from last week and up 88% over last year. China again represents about 50% of those sales with some of the new sales represented by initial Chinese importers participating on the approved tariff waiver program. What’s this done to prices, Bauer explains.

As always: Plan today for tomorrow's success.

For questions on this week's recap or to discuss other market questions, just ASK DAVE. 

As always: Plan today for tomorrow's success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com.

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