international order

In 2001, Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill coined the term “BRIC” to describe the fast-growing economies that he predicted would collectively dominate the global economy by 2050. The BRIC countries he was referring to were Brazil, Russia, India, and China. After a series of high-level meetings that included officials from the four countries, the BRIC grouping was founded in 2009. The following year, South Africa joined, and the name became “BRICS”. Last month, the fifteenth BRICS summit was held in Johannesburg. In addition to the leaders of the five core countries, representatives from more than 60 countries attended, and six were officially invited to join the club: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

How does the BRICS serve China’s foreign policy objectives? And is this expansion a major win for Xi Jinping? Is BRICS likely to become a global grouping of authoritarian countries that poses a challenge to the G-7 group of democracies – and is that what Beijing wants? 

To discuss these topics and more, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Colleen Cottle, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. Prior to joining the Atlantic Council, she spent over a dozen years at the Central Intelligence Agency where she worked on East and South Asia. 

Timestamps

[01:45] What has BRICS achieved? 

[05:33] China Driving the BRICS Agenda

[08:35] Where does BRICS fit into China’s foreign policy agenda? 

[10:53] Why has BRICS refrained from endorsing BRI?

[12:53] Outcomes of Johannesburg Summit

[15:18] Criteria for Expanding BRICS Membership

[18:19] Potential for BRICS Disrupting the International Order

[23:52] China as a Developing Country

[26:56] Will we see any breakthroughs with BRICS? 

Van sat down with China watcher Carla Freeman (US Institute of Peace) to explore this thing Xi Jinping announced last year called the “Global Security Initiative,” which turned into a larger discussion about how China thinks about security and international order generally. The catalyst was a piece she wrote with Alex Stephenson. We get into: What China’s “relational” thinking about world politics really means in practice; How Chinese security thinking affects the global South; How US choices affects Sino-Russian ties; How Made in China 2025 looks in hindsight; The aspects of international order China likes most; and more!

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What is the nuclear revolution and why can't we agree on it? What is the Third Nuclear Age, why is it problematic as a concept, and what special dangers or opportunities might it hold? How important is multipolarity, and what counts as a pole? What counts as "emerging technologies" and how do they affect the risks of nuclear war? Is arms control possible in advanced conventional (non-nuclear) weaponry? And why is China expanding its nuclear arsenal? Dr. Benjamin Zala and Dr. Van Jackson talk about all this and more in the first of two episodes on the topic.

Third Nuclear Age article by Andrew Futter and Ben Zala: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/european-journal-of-international-security/article/strategic-nonnuclear-weapons-and-the-onset-of-a-third-nuclear-age/91EEB3B77D348252815F9F7B59DB8A32

Thinking clearly about China's nuclear expansion: https://www.duckofminerva.com/2021/11/whos-afraid-of-chinas-nukes.html

The limits of strategy under multipolarity: https://www.un-diplomatic.com/p/what-happens-when-you-do-primacy

Third Nuclear Age project site: https://thethirdnuclearage.com

Ben Zala's book, National Perspectives on a Multipolar Order: https://manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526159373/

Subscribe to the Un-Diplomatic Newsletter: https://www.un-diplomatic.com

[1:51] Beijing’s Objectives

[5:43] China’s Vision for the International Order

[8:49] GSI’s Relation to US-China Competition

[10:45] "Meat and Bones" over Time

[14:47] “Indivisible Security”

[16:37] India and Others' Perspectives on GSI

[21:27] Sino-Russian Alignment: Implications for China’s Global Security Governance Ambitions?

In our second episode, Sunjoy Joshi, Chairman of the Observer Research Foundation speaks to Sergey Lavrov, the Foreign Minister of Russia, about Russia's role in stabilising the Civil War in Libya, the importance of a rules-based international order, and making the world more democratic on the basis of the principles of the United Nations Charter.

Follow Sunjoy Joshi on Twitter: @SunjoyJ

Share your feedback on: podcasts@orfonline.org

Introduction music credit: 'Rising Spirits' by Jay Man.

HR McMaster proves that in Washington, hawks only fail up.  Are Republicans against international order?  Chinese Netizens wants Trump to win the election because they think he's a racist joke who helps rally nationalism in China.  What conspiracy theory is leading to cell phone towers being set ablaze in New Zealand?  Only one country thinks arms-racing is the path to security--America, baby.  

Corey Pein Tweet: https://twitter.com/coreypein/status/1261166298043527168

Waleed Shahid Tweet: https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1262492507868463107?s=19

Mitt Romney Tweet:https://twitter.com/SenatorRomney/status/1261799211760222210?s=19

Vipin Narang Tweet: https://twitter.com/NarangVipin/status/1263258794211098633

Timothy McLaughlin in The Atlantic on Taiwan: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/05/taiwan-china-who-coronavirus-pandemic/611737/

UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, has issued a dire warning about the state of international cooperation. The long-standing international order, he says, is dividing and that threatens future global stability.

So, are his concerns valid? How is the international order likely to change over coming decades? And what practical steps can be taken to reinforce the global rule of law?