investor biases

In this episode, William Green chats with Chris Bloomstran, President & Chief Investment Officer of Semper Augustus. This conversation is so rich that it’s been divided into two episodes. Here, in Part 1, Chris explains how to achieve long-term success by seeking a “dual margin of safety” that comes from owning high-quality businesses at attractive prices. He also warns about the perennial dangers of irrational exuberance, which he now sees in hot stocks like Tesla & Nvidia. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 04:45 - What Chris Bloomstran learned from his brilliant mentor, Robert Smith. 08:17 - How Chris & Robert skillfully sidestepped the dotcom bubble & crash. 10:00 - What lessons Chris drew from an early investment that fell to zero. 35:17 - Why Chris named his investment firm after a crazily overvalued tulip. 44:53 - What Sir John Templeton saw as the best antidote to financial insanity.  55:38 - How to succeed in stocks by seeking a “dual margin of safety.” 56:51 - How his definition of a quality business has evolved. 1:07:01 - Why he’s skeptical about Cathie Wood’s ARK portfolio. 1:09:02 - Why hot tech stocks like Nvidia are likely to disappoint for many years. 1:11:32 - Why he’s wary of hype & “puffery” about Tesla’s glorious future. 1:17:49 - Why he’s trimmed great but pricey holdings like Costco & Nike. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members. Chris Bloomstran’s firm Semper Augustus Investments Group “Extraordinary Popular Delusions & The Madness of Crowds” by Charles Mackay “The Rise & Fall of American Growth” by Robert Gordon William Green’s book, “Richer, Wiser, Happier” – read the reviews of this book Listen to Stig Brodersen’s April 2023 interview with Chris Bloomstran, or watch the video. Follow Chris Bloomstran on X (AKA Twitter) Follow William Green on X (AKA Twitter) SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota Linkedin Marketing Solutions Fidelity Efani Shopify NDTCO Fundrise Wise NetSuite TurboTax Vacasa NerdWallet Babbel Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest this week for the third time is Michael Mauboussin. If there is a major question about markets and investing, Michael has usually written one of the best pieces of research on that topic. Today’s conversation is a mix of several of his research pieces, but focuses on the sources of alpha. The framing of the conversation is the brilliant question “who is on the other side” of a given trade. If you are buying, who is selling, and why? Knowing the answer to this question is one key to understanding where excess return comes from. As is usual with Michael, we also explore tons of other interesting ideas that will serve as food for thought. Please enjoy. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Show Notes 1:23 - (First Question) – An outline of the syllabus for the course he teaches 4:02 – What are smart people missing when it comes to decision making 5:33 – Why Michael went down the path of defining major investing concepts             7:41 – On the impossibility of informational inefficient markets 9:14 – Beware behavioral finance 12:03 – What are the behavioral errors that people can take advantage of in a trade 15:14 – Timing opportunities             17:25 – Modest Proposal Podcast Episode 17:47 – Where the analytical edge comes from 21:16 – Is there an advantage to exhibit time arbitrage 23:53 – Technical arbitrage 29:34 – What impact do flows into ETFs play on the market 32:25 – Informational edge and how you source that edge 36:39 – Biggest changes that he has seen on the buy side 43:18 -  How would Michael apply this as a sports GM 48:35 – His views on stock buybacks             51:02 – The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEOs and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success 52:55 – EBIT to EBITDA paper             54:43 – What Does a PE Multiple Mean? 59:28 – The concept of benign myths 1:02:06 – What the future holds of Michael             1:04:17 – The Myth of Capitalism: Monopolies and the Death of Competition   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag