market news

Beef harvest continues to stay steady, but well below average compared to last year. Top rounds are moving up quickly while middle meats, loins, and ribeyes continue a steady pattern moving up. Buy what you need.
The corn surplus is expected to support new biojet fuel technology, so we are not seeing it get below $4 as expected. Soy is holding steady and wheat continues the same story from the last couple of weeks.
Poultry pricing stayed pretty steady but should be moving up next week on all chicken products. Demand is strong. Only two new reports of Avian Flu were reported affecting 160 birds.
Bellies moved slightly higher, but we may see this market hang around the $120-125 range for a while. Butts are moving up, loins are a great value, and ribs continue to move higher.

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Hey everyone, it's Larry Bailey. This is for the Week of February 26, 2024, in Review:

The Fed’s favored inflation measure showed that annual inflation continues to progress lower, albeit slowly. And while the weather and mortgage rates impacted signed contracts for homes in January, key home price indexes revealed that 2023 was another strong year for appreciation. Here are the headlines:

• Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure in Line with Forecasts
• New Home Sales Jump in January
• Pending Home Sales Pull Back
• Home Values Continue to Move Higher
• Unemployment Claims Rise During Latest Week

00:00 Introduction
01:53 Feds Favorite Inflation Measure
07:12 Pending Home Sales
09:37 Home Values
12:01 Unemployment Claims

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Larry Bailey - Your Community Advocate

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Grain prices are decreasing, which is good news for food processors and animal production. 
Beef production is being reduced, which has caused prices to rise for most items except for ground beef, which is getting cheaper. 
Chicken production is strong, and prices are unlikely to change in the coming weeks. However, eleven new cases of Avian Flu were reported, which affected 92k birds, mostly turkeys. 
Finally, pork production is abundant, and there is plenty of product available. Of course, loins continue to be a great value.

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Hey everyone, it's Larry Bailey. This is for the Week of February 19, 2024, in Review:

Closings on existing homes picked up last month, while recent commentary shows that Fed members remain cautious about cutting rates too soon. Read on for these stories and more:

• Existing Home Sales Rebound in January
• Fed in No Hurry to Cut Rates
• Tame Initial Jobless Claims During Key Data Week
• Recession Forecast Softened

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Larry Bailey - Your Community Advocate

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© 2024 Mortgage Workflow Partners Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Beef harvest is down for another week with expectations of going below 600k next week. Packers are lowering the harvest to keep inventories tight and push prices up. Next week should be a good buy opportunity. The next move will be higher prices for pretty much every item.
Chicken pricing continues on the current trend upward. Only two new cases of Avian Flu were reported, affecting 21,000 turkeys.
Corn is headed towards breaking that below $4 barrier. Soy is bouncing up and down. Wheat is moving lower.
Bellies closed just up from last week, but we still have a little more time before the big move higher starts. Butts are gaining more support, loins are still a great value, and ribs could actually get pricy moving into the summer.

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Hey everyone, it's Larry Bailey. This is for the Week of February 12, 2024, in Review:

Wholesale and consumer inflation were both hotter than expected in January. There was also a pullback in new home construction, though home builders are feeling confident about the year ahead. Here are last week’s headlines:

• Consumer Inflation Above Forecasts
• Hot Wholesale Inflation a Surprise
• Home Builder Confidence at 6-Month High
• Home Construction Slowed in January
• Retail Sales Tumble to Start the Year
• Challenges Remain for Job Seekers

00:00 Introduction
02:18 Wholesale Inflation
05:53 Fed Funds Rate
08:16 Home Construction
10:08 Retail Sales
12:00 Subscribe

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Beef demand is not keeping up with beef production. Packers have more product than they can move without discounting and they have no interest in discounting. Buy what you need, there isn't much risk to the upside.
Wings continue to increase even after the Super Bowl. Breasts and tenderloins move higher as well. Demand is strong for fresh poultry and production is about on par with last year which will keep pushing chicken higher. Three new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 32,500 turkeys.
Corn closed at $4.19, the lowest it's been in four years. Grains are a bright spot in commodities.
Bellies closed at $1 lower than last week. This market shouldn't move much lower, so buy what you need. Loins are a great value, butts are steady, and ribs are showing great strength.

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Hey everyone, it's Larry Bailey. This is for the Week of February 5, 2024, in Review:

The latest appreciation and inventory data show why housing remains a great avenue for wealth creation. Read on for more details in these headlines:

• Home Prices Expected to “Extend to New Highs”
• The Real Story on Existing Home Inventory
• Is a Rise in Initial Unemployment Claims Ahead?

00:00 Introduction
02:21 Home Price Index
04:19 Existing Home Inventory
06:39 Unemployment Claims

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Larry Bailey - Your Community Advocate

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© 2024 Mortgage Workflow Partners Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Beef demand is not strong. Harvest was up this week, but we shouldn't expect that to last. Buy what you need, you may find a bargain or two.
Chicken wings will hit their peak on Sunday, so pricing will move higher next week. Breasts are holding steady and tenders are moving up. Three new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 102,000 birds.
Corn is down again this week, which is great news. Soy is bouncing up and down and wheat is holding steady. Grains are in a favorable condition.
Bellies are down from last week. There should be a buy window soon, but it will only last a week or two before they start their seasonal move upward. Butts are lower, loins are steady, and ribs are showing some support. Pork production is strong. Always a great time to menu pork.

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Hey everyone, it's Larry Bailey. This is for the Week of January 29, 2024, in Review:

The Fed held rates steady while there were mixed messages from the labor sector and home prices continued to hit new highs. Read on for these stories and more:

• Fed Funds Rate “Likely at Its Peak”
• Was January’s Jobs Report Really a Blockbuster?
• Slow Start for Private Sector Job Growth
• Surprising Uptick in December’s Job Openings
• Unemployment Claims Rise for Second Straight Week
• Home Prices Moving on Up

00:00 Introduction
01:53 Job Openings
03:57 Unemployment Claims
06:07 Home Prices
10:39 Family Hack

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Larry Bailey - Your Community Advocate

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Starting with grains this week, corn is moving lower again and it's probably not done. This is good for everyone (except corn farmers). Soy and wheat are in the same mode.
Beef harvest is holding up pretty well, but retailers are not interested in beef at the elevated prices pushed by recent storms. Prices are moving lower on most items, except ground beef, which should continue through February. Still a buy-what-you-need strategy.
Only one new Avian Flu case was reported last week. In poultry, wings are moving higher, tenders are moving up, and breasts are holding steady. Production is about the same as last year and demand is good.
Bellies showed no change this week. They should decline into February. Loins are the best value in protein. Pork production is recovering nicely.

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Hey everyone, it's Larry Bailey. This is for the Week of January 22, 2024, in Review:

Inflation continues to move lower towards the Fed’s 2% target, while declining mortgage rates boosted signed contracts on new and existing homes in December. Here are the latest headlines:

• Key Inflation Measure Below 3%
• New Home Sales End 2023 on High Note
• Pending Home Sales Surged in December
• Fourth Quarter GDP Better Than Expected
• Jobless Claims Move Higher

00:00 Introduction
04:16 New Home Sales
07:44 Fourth Quarter GDP
10:28 Chocolate Mousse Recipe, Upcoming Economic Data

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Larry Bailey - Your Community Advocate

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Beef production recovered nicely after the winter storm disruptions. Packers pushed pricing up pretty quickly, but this doesn't seem sustainable into February. The quick rise prices should move lower towards the end of the month, with middle meats being an exception as they have already bottomed out.
Chicken pricing is moving higher as expected. Production is about 1% higher over last year and the demand is on par. Five new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 313,000 birds.
Bellies are on the rise, but we're hoping to see a small buy window in February before prices move even higher this summer. Butts, ribs, and loins are all still a great value. Pork production rebounded nicely last week.
Grains are in good shape and the CME had a quiet week.

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Hey everyone, it's Larry Bailey. This is for the Week of January 15, 2024, in Review:

Home sales and construction slumped in December, but buyers and builders have reasons to be optimistic about the housing market this year. Find out why and more in these stories:

• December’s Existing Home Sales Likely a “Bottom”
• Home Builders Optimistic About 2024
• “Solid Showing” for Single-family Construction
• Holiday Shopping Season Stronger Than Expected
• Initial Jobless Claims Fall Below 200,000

00:00 Introduction
01:02 December's Existing Home Sales
02:22 Homebuilders Optimistic about 2024
06:01 Solid Showing for Single-Family Construction
08:05 Holiday Shopping Season Stronger than Expected
08:54 Initial Jobless Claims Fall Below 200,000
09:56 Family Hack of the Week
11:09 What to Look for This Week

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Larry Bailey - Your Community Advocate

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Multiple storms in the Midwest have turned the beef market a little more quickly than expected. The decline in the middle meats should last one more week. We'll most likely see increases in the last week of January. Next week is the time to buy middle meats, everything else is buy it now, it will cost more money later. 
Chicken is up again for next week with wings, random breasts, and tenders all moving higher right up to the Super Bowl, but this year will be "reasonable" compared to previous years. On the Avian Flu front, it was a pretty quiet week. Let's hope for more continued good news there.
Bellies are up from last week, so if you were waiting to buy bacon in a declining market, you just missed it. Pricing will most likely continue to increase, but butts and loins are still a great value in pork.
Corn and soy harvests yielded more than we assumed. This has pushed pricing down. This will be an interesting market to watch this year.

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Hey everyone, it's Larry Bailey. This is for the Week of January 8, 2024, in Review:

Inflation continues to make progress lower while home prices nationwide are on the rise. Here are last week’s headlines: 

• Annual “Core” Consumer Inflation Falls Below 4%
• Wholesale Inflation Lower Than Expected
• Home Prices Continue to Move Higher
• Holiday Season Impact on Jobless Claims

00:00 Introduction
01:47 Inflation Update
03:50 Wholesale Inflation
05:50 Home Prices
07:24 Jobless Claims
08:10 Granola Bar Recipe
09:19 Upcoming Housing Data

To subscribe to the MBS Highway, please go to www.MBShighway.com - © 2012-2024 MBS Highway. All rights reserved. 

Larry Bailey - Your Community Advocate

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© 2024 Mortgage Workflow Partners Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Bad winter weather in the Midwest had big effects on beef production. Two major packers idled plants completely and several were only running one shift. This will tighten availability. If you need middle meats, buy what you need. Other cuts will be better to buy sooner than later.

Chicken production was up slightly. Wings, breasts, and tenders are moving higher but chicken is still a good protein buy. Ten new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 1.6 million birds.

Pork bellies closed over $100 this week. With production slightly up and headcount slightly down, plenty of pork is still available at a good value.

There is plenty of corn for food, feed, and fuel. Soy demand is lacking, driving prices lower.

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Happy New Year!

In the beef market, we are seeing the seasonal market correction for ribeyes and tenderloins begin. Buy what you need weekly knowing that next week will probably be a better value. Chucks, rounds, and grinds are moving in the exact opposite way.

Chicken pricing is moving higher this week with an expectation that this will continue. Only two new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 1,400 birds. 

Bellies are moving higher and this will probably continue through winter, but pork is still a great value.

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Beef harvest was up from last week. Middle meats, ribeyes, and tenderloins should see their peak prices before moving lower after the New Year. If you need rounds, chucks, and grinds, buy now.

21 new Avian Flu cases have been reported affecting 2.3 million birds. Pricing in chicken is moving up, but is nothing to be concerned about.

Surprising all of us, bellies closed lower than last week at just $80. The pork complex continues to show great value.

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Beef harvest continues strong through the peak holiday season. Middle meats are moving up again for next week which hopefully means there is nowhere to go but down from here. The value in beef is in rounds, chucks, and grinds. 

We are still seeing new Avian Flu reports with 11 new cases this week affecting over 3 million birds. In chicken, party wings are moving lower while breasts and tenders are holding steady. Chicken is a good protein value. 

Pork bellies closed at $83, down just a bit from last week. We may be at the end of this cheap belly cycle.

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