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The conflict in Ukraine has had a profound impact on geopolitical balances across the globe. The effects are certainly being felt in Syria, where Russia has been propping up the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Russia has been pressuring Assad to respond to Turkish overtures, which are primarily underpinned by Ankara"s determination to crush the US-backed Syrian Kurdish statelet in northeast Syria.

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On Dec. 23, three Kurdish activists were murdered in the heart of Paris by a 69 year old Frenchman with a history of violence against foreigners. But many Kurds believe the suspect was put up to the job by Turkey's national intelligence agency the MIT. French authorities have launched an investigation but are treating the affair as a racist crime. The MIT has become increasingly powerful in recent years, commanding its own fleet of drones and targeting Kurdish militants and other "enemies of the state" on foreign soil. French investigative journalist Guillaume Perrier says the MIT and its boss Hakan Fidan are central to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's grip on power. 

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Turkey has been threatening since last month to launch a major ground invasion against the Kurds of northeast Syria. More than a month has passed and Russia and the United States have aired their objections to Turkey's plans. Turkey has yet to strike. Does this mean that it has caved to US and Russian pressure? Syria expert Fabrice Balanche thinks not. 

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Turkey is threatening to mount a fresh ground assault against the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in northeast Syria after a wave of airstrikes that left 11 civilians and numerous Kurdish fighters dead. US officials say they are trying to de-escalate the situation, but their Syrian Kurdish allies say Washington's response has been weak and is unlikely to stave off another Turkish offensive. David Eubank, founder of the Free Burma Rangers, a volunteer group that assists civilians in conflict zones, came out of northeast Syria yesterday where he witnessed the devastation wreaked by Turkey's latest airstrikes. He told Al-Monitor that the sense of betrayal by the United States is even deeper than when President Donald Trump gave Turkey the green light to invade large chunks of northeast Syria in 2019. 

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Turkey has been piling pressure on Sweden to sever its ties with the Kurdish-led administration in northeast Syria. Sweden's new government has finally agreed to that condition and to resume arms exports to Ankara. The demands were made in exchange for Turkey's approval for Sweden and Finland's NATO membership. Swedish academic Paul Levin believes that these concessions are a diplomatic win for Turkey but that Ankara's behavior has lost it many friends in his country. 

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With the world's attention focused on Ukraine, Turkey has escalated its campaign against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) across its own borders in Iraq and Syria. Meghan Bodette, director of research at the Kurdish Peace Institute in Washington DC, tells Al-Monitor that Turkey is increasingly targeting activists, politicians and other civilian figures associated with the Kurdish political movement founded by imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. This is because Turkey fears the legitimacy such individuals lend to Kurdish aspirations. 

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Protests in Iran are continuing despite a harsh crackdown by security forces. Human rights groups say that at least 201 people have died in the violence that was triggered by the death in custody of a Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini. The 22-year old was detained by the morality police for supposedly breaking rules on mandatory Islamic-style covering.

BBC Persian Service correspondent Jiyar Gol says much of the violence is concentrated in the Kurdish heavy northwest provinces, where long running grievances over political repression and poor economic conditions mesh with the regime's suppression of Kurdish identity. 

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Al-Monitor’s Business Correspondent Salim Essaid discusses Saudi Arabia’s investments in esports; trends in cryptocurrency markets in the Gulf; AI governance in the UAE; the region’s evolution as a hub in global climate policy, and Al-Monitor’s Pro coverage.

Saudi esports success depends on local businesses, say industry players - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East

Latest PRO Memo: NEOM’s ambitious concepts present funding, feasibility challenges for Saudi Arabia - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East

UN envoy welcomes climate spotlight on Egypt, Africa - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East

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Nationwide protests sparked by the brutal killing of a 22 year old Iranian Kurdish woman by Iran's so-called morals police are continuing, marking one of the biggest challenges to the country's clerical regime in recent years.

Protestors are demanding an end to 43 years of dictatorial rule. Much of the regime's wrath is being trained on people living in the country's long repressed Kurdish region and on Kurdish opposition groups across the border in Iraqi Kurdistan. Asso Hassan Zadeh who served for long years in the Iranian Kurdish opposition says for the first time non-Kurdish Iranian opponents of the regime are taking greater interest in their Kurdish counterparts and seeking to join forces with them.

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Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces the biggest challenge to his nearly two decades of uninterrupted rule as galloping inflation, a wilting national currency and resentment toward Syrian migrants sap his popularity — and one world leader is watching closely: Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Mark Galeotti, a London-based lecturer and writer on transnational crime in Russia and director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence has studied Turkey's relations with Russia closely. He says that Putin understands and feels at ease with ruthlessly pragmatic strongmen like Erdogan being one himself and can overlook their quarrels in pursuit of Russia's interests, especially as it faces major setbacks in Ukraine. In this podcast Galeotti unpacks the relationship, explaining how decision making on Turkey is carried out in the Kremlin and what the real security risks to the West are.

For more on Erdogan and Putin read Amberin Zaman's latest. 

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Adam Lucente, Al-Monitor correspondent, discusses the background, controversy and prospects for LIV Golf, the professional tour backed by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund.

Golf commentator who criticized Saudi-backed LIV Golf sued for defamation - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East

Saudi Public Investment Fund acquires shares in Amazon, Google, Uber - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East

9/11 victims protest Saudi-funded LIV Golf event at Trump course - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East

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Iran is a longtime ally of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad and, alongside Russia, helped stave off his overthrow at the hands of Sunni rebels backed by Turkey. Little is known about Iran's presence in Syria however. Western journalists do not have access to their zones of influence. Yet there is persistent talk of the establishment by Iran of a Shiite Crescent stretching from its borders through Iraq and Syria on to Lebanon. Israel and the United States have escalated attacks against Iran backed militias in Syria in recent days. Meanwhile Iranian Turkish tensions in Syria are brewing anew. Iranian expert Hamidreza Azizi says while the two share animosity against the Kurds, Iran has formed a tactical alliance with some Kurdish groups against Turkey. In the meantime, he warns failure to reach a new nuclear deal could see Iran taking action against Israel in Syria and beyond.

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Ali Hashem, Al-Monitor columnist and journalist for Al Jazeera English, discusses the latest on the Iran nuclear deal, what it means for the region, and how it could open up the prospect of direct US-Iran diplomacy under the JCPOAJoint Commission.

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Mark Fitzpatrick, Associate Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and expert on Iran’s nuclear program, discusses whey there may be an Iran nuclear deal sooner rather than later, how close Iran may be to developing a nuclear weapon, and why an Iran nuclear deal would be an obvious benefit for regional security.

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Turkish leaders continue to threaten another military offensive against the Syrian Kurds. But they need either the Kremlin's or Washington's approval to mount any such offensive in the zones that are under Russian and US control. Salih Muslim, the leader of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party that hold power in northeast Syria says Erdogan is unpredictable and might carry out a military operation.

Muslim recalls in this conversaton with Amberin Zaman the days when he used to travel to Turkey when Ankara was holding peace talks with the Kurdistan Workers Party leader Abdullah Ocalan and his commanders in the field. Muslim says until Turkey solves its Kurdish question there cannot be peace in the region.

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Hanene Tajouri Bessassi, Tunisia’s ambassador to the United States, says that while US criticism of the July 25 vote was considered interference in the country’s domestic politics, Tunis welcomes continued US partnership and international support for democracy, which she described as the ‘unique destiny of the Tunisian people.’

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Amberin Zaman speaks to Yevgeniya Gaber a former Ukrainian diplomat who is currently a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and Carleton University about Turkey's role in the Russia Ukraine conflict ahead of President Erdogan's meeting with Vladimir Putin in Sochi. 

Turkey has been seeking to play mediator between the warring countries and scored a diplomatic victory earlier this month brokering a deal together with the United Nations for Ukrainian grain to be shipped from its blockaded Black Sea ports. The first ship laden with Ukrainian grain departed Odesa today but the road ahead is pitted with risks and it's too soon to celebrate, argues Gaber.

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Elizabeth Hagedorn, Al-Monitor State Department Correspondent, and Andrew review US President Joe Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia, including what was achieved, and not achieved, with regard to Iran, human rights, energy security, and the war in Yemen.

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Martin Indyk, Distinguished Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses US President Joe Biden’s trip this week to Israel, the West Bank and Saudi Arabia, and his recent CFR Special Report, with Steven Cook,  The Case for a New US-Saudi Strategic Compact. Indyk has served as US ambassador to Israel, assistant secretary of state for Near East Affairs, special assistant to President Clinton and special envoy under President Obama for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, and is the author of Master of The Game: Henry Kissinger and the Art of Middle East Diplomacy

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Ukraine is accusing Russia of stealing its grain and shipping it to Turkey via the Black Sea. Ukraine wants Turkey to crack down on the illicit trade but Ankara is wary of upsetting the Kremlin.

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