niwa

I can't help but enjoy the rich irony.  

NIWA, the Crown owned weather research institute, has had a big spend up on its vehicle fleet. Four big, grunty Chevy Silverados to be exact - 2024 models, apparently judging by the regos, retailing to you and to me for around $ 172K.  

Although I have no doubt that NIWA managed to squeeze that down a bit —I hope they did, I hope they negotiated— the utes were bought despite the fact that the government is currently trying to reduce the emissions from all the vehicles it owns.  

Agencies must purchase battery EV's, or if they're not suitable, a plug-in hybrid. If neither of those are suitable, the agency's chief executive has the ability to sign off on a different vehicle. Mainly an ICE vehicle.  

NIWA is a Crown-owned enterprise, so it isn't bound by these rules, but according to the protocol, it must have regard for the rules. NIWA’s chief executive John Morgan signed off on the purchases being necessary given the weight of the boats the cars will be towing.  

“We investigated all the options in the market,” he said. “There was no viable alternative to the Silverado's given the weight of the boats they'll be towing. We test drove a wide range of trucks, large and mid-sized Utes in a variety of real-world driving conditions to determine what was going to be the most suitable and safest for our staff. There are no Bev or PHV options available that can perform the role required.”  

No, and I think that's the point.  I would have no problem with this at all if it weren't for the virtue signalling. It's not just virtue signalling, but real-life implications for real-life businesses. 

Remember when we were talking about the greenhouse auditing that the banks are requiring of their customers? Several New Zealand banks have pledged to ensure their investment and lending portfolios are aligned to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Banks are ‘helping’ (which is a loaded word) business customers reach for net zero with lower interest rates for hitting sustainability targets and by helping firms with transition plans. So what that means, and what businesses told us was happening, was that when they apply for a loan or when every year they must reply to their bank.  

What are you doing to offset your emissions within your business? How are you reducing your impact on the environment? You have to show your commitment or risk financial penalties. You get threatened with higher interest rates on loans or no loans at all. Farmers know all about that.  If you're not performing, Fonterra won't pick up your milk. If you are not committed to reducing your greenhouse gas emissions as much as you possibly can, there are real world financial penalties.   

We had the owner of a transport firm ringing when we were discussing this. He wanted a loan to buy a new truck. Whoever was on the end of the phone is committed to changing the world, obviously, but probably hasn't driven a truck before, said, well, have you looked at an electric truck? And he said yes, I have. I'm not a Neanderthal. (Of course, he didn't say that I'm exaggerating). But he said, you know. Yes, I have looked at alternatives, but there is nothing on the market at the moment that is going to be able to do the job I need.  

Well, you better start looking further afield because there's going to be higher interest rates if you are committed to ICE engines in the future. You know, if you want a loan, hmmm, there may well be higher interest rates in the in the next couple of years.  

So there are real world implications for people who have no alternative.  Blind ideology and desire do not create vehicles fit for purpose. Just wanting them to work doesn't make them so.  

So, there's NIWA with its noble mission statement on its website: “The challenges of reducing our national greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to a changing climate are hugely important and affect all New Zealanders.”  What they mean is except us, because we need big grunty ships to tow our boats! And they do. And setting aside the emissions from a big grunty Chev, what about the cost when the public service is being squeezed so hard, the pips are squeaking?  

A Chevy Silverado goes for $172K, a Ford Ranger goes for $90K and I've seen plenty of Ford Rangers pulling big boats heading north over summer. Can a Ford Ranger not tow NIWA’s boats? It's just the disconnect between the real world and ideology.  

If NIWA have test driven all these different utes and said these are the vehicles we need to do the job, fine. But at the same time, they said these are the vehicles we need to do the job because there are no alternatives. But then private business should be able to say that too and not be quizzed by their banks, and not have to do a greenhouse audit when the alternative doesn't exist yet.  

DOC’s the same. Remember that lovely conservation worker who left. They were choppering in coal to the camper’s huts. You could not use the wood that had fallen over in a storm for the heaters and the cookers within the huts, you had to chopper in bloody coal.   

When ideology collides with the real world, it makes for a hell of a splat.  NIWA and DOC and the like, banging on about climate change, and rightly so, but they're not walking the talk because they can't. The technology they need doesn't exist yet, and they need to realise, and the government needs to realise, and the ideologs need to realise, and the Green Party needs to realise, that it's the same for the poor grunts who are trying to run their businesses, and pay their taxes that pay for these bloody utes.  

Sure, encourage people to transition into environmentally friendly alternatives when there are alternatives. But don't you dare punish people when they simply do not have a choice.   

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Questions are being raised as to why competing weather forecasters NIWA and MetService don't work together in times of extreme weather events.

MetService has recently concluded its weather forecasting models performed badly before the Auckland floods, leaving staff in disbelief over the inaccuracy.

WeatherWatch Head Analyst Philip Duncan says the situation wouldn't have gone this far if the Government hadn't allowed NIWA to commercialise everything.

"MetService would have a lot more access to tax-funded modelling and be able to improve it, because climate change- or even the fact that things are warming up- is breaking some of the modelling."

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New Zealand reached its hottest September on record this year, according to new data.

NIWA’s Climate Summary for the month said the nationwide average temperature was 11.9C, 1.3C above the 1991-2020 September average.

The Country's Jamie Mackay says we're staring down the barrel of a dry El Nino summer- which has consequences for the rural sector. 

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It’s official - El Nino has begun.

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) announced the start of the weather cycle in its Season Climate Outlook for October to December today.

It increases the likelihood of “dramatic” temperature swings in these months, the outlook says, bringing periods of unseasonably warm weather followed by sharp, cool southerly winds.

There’s a higher chance rainfall will be lower than normal for many regions around the country, meaning drought conditions and a greater risk of fires than last year.

Wind will be more powerful, with the outlook warning there could be periods of potentially damaging winds.

Niwa said the weather pattern was likely to continue over the summer.

Fire and Emergency NZ’s national wildfire manager Tim Mitchell said fire season “is going to be different. We’re going to see a see-sawing of fire risk”.

“Now is the time to really prepare for the coming condition, clearing vegetation around structures, managing water supplies and forming a plan,” Mitchell said.

‘On track to be up there with some of the strongest El Ninos’

Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said: “El Nino is finally here. We’ve been talking about it for a long time.”

Projections show it could be one of “the stronger El Nino events in the last couple of decades. And that means some pretty big impacts,” he said.

“[There will be a] temperature rollercoster. It could be 30C one day and then 15C the next. That’s typical for spring, but El Nino is going to elevate and enhance that level of variability,” he said.

The eastern sides of both islands were likely to see above-average temperatures and the west and south of the South Island will get above-average rainfall.

As Niwa’s principal scientist Chris Brandolino spoke of the low rainfall rates projected for some areas he was so taken aback by forecasts he exclaimed “holy smokes!”

Throughout October, rainfall rates were likely to be at or below normal for most of the country, with the North Island and top of the South in line for the most dramatic anomaly.

Moving into November, “we have to watch out”, Noll said.

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research announced the start of the El Niño weather cycle in its Season Climate Outlook for October to December today.

“We had that big flooding event in September - so inland Otago, around Queenstown Lakes, parts of Southland, the West Coast, Fiordland - there could be some very strong and impressive fronts that track through that region in the coming months,” he said.

Brandolino said those fronts would “lose their oomph” as they moved north over the North Island: “That’s why the dryness risk is there.”

However, there would be higher rainfall rates in other places, Noll said.

The west of the South Island could see higher than normal rainfall.

Wind strength will be greater than normal across most of the country because the difference between air pressures near New Zealand, the pressure gradient, will be higher than normal.

“This will come with periods of potentially damaging winds,” Niwa’s outlook read.

Noll said El Niño would “bring some really windy conditions”.

More westerly winds from this pressure pattern will contribute to “prolonged dry spells” about the east and north of both islands.

The risk of marine heatwaves, “like those that have occurred in recent years”, however, is low, Niwa said.

Regional marine heatwaves could develop around the north and east of both islands, though.

Noll and Brandolino pointed to sea surface temperature anomalies - “the engine room behind atmospheric patterns”, Noll said - where there was “a lot going on”.

Measurements taken in a key region where El Nino is monitored in the equatorial Pacific Ocean in September showed temperatures had passed the threshold for a “strong” El Niño.

“We’ve been watching the development of El Nino and what we’ve seen over the last month,” Noll said, “is that that key monitoring region in the central part of the Pacific known as Nino 3.4 has actually jumped over the threshold for a strong El Nino”.

“[The threshold is] 1.5C and we’re actually at 1.6C above average in that area.

“And that puts us on track, this year, to be right up there with some of the strongest El Ninos,” Noll said.

El Niño increases the likelihood of “dramatic” temperature swings in these months, the outlook says, bringing periods of unseasonably warm weather followed by sharp, cool southerly winds.

Brandolino said the high measurement readings were significant given they were from September - “this early in the El Nino arc”, he said.

“Once we reach 2C above average,” Noll said, “we tend to ascribe that as ‘very strong’. That means big impacts.”

Another climate pattern, the Indian Ocean Dipole, which leads to extremely dry conditions in Australia, will also be in play.

“This pattern looks very similar to what happened in 2019 - and although 2019 didn’t have a fully-fledged El Nino, do you remember what happened?”

The Indian Ocean Dipole threw parts of New Zealand’s North Island into a severe meteorological drought.

“This is a reason to be concerned,” Brandolino said, “now we have at least a strong El Nino in conjunction with [the Indian Ocean Dipole].”

30C by next Friday, Niwa forecasts

Air pressure anomaly patterns showed the next 10 days would bring wind gusts over 100km/h this weekend, threatening power cuts and tree damage.

“This is not your run-of-the-mill, typical wind event we’ve got coming in on Saturday,” Noll said.

“Things change quickly and dramatically,” he said, “with a big high [pressure system] building north of the North Island.”

Both Brandolino and Noll said parts of the country could be above 30C next week.

“That’s early,” Noll said, “Last year we didn’t hit 30C until November. It’s certainly ahead of schedule.”

Bradolino said the early heat was “a nice example” of what New Zealand could see over the next two to three months.

Fire and Emergency’s Mitchell said the wildfire risk was slightly above normal along the east coasts of both islands - where rainfall was likely to be lower too - and slightly below normal where rainfall rates were projected to be higher than usual at the bottom and west of the South.

“This year is going to be different. We really need you to keep up to date with wildfire risk conditions and think about those activities that could cause sparks or ignitions.”

Raphael Franks is an Auckland-based reporter who covers breaking news. He joined the Herald as a Te Rito cadet in 2022.

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Big changes could be on the cards for New Zealand's weather forecasting system.

The Government's commissioned a review to begin in September, with a final report due in February.

It follows increased bad blood between the two agencies- most recently, MetService alleging NIWA's forecasts may be harmful to public safety when used by DOC.

State Owned Enterprises Minister, Duncan Webb says they have different but overlapping roles, and the goal is to get the best from both.

"So that not only can we kind of predict and forecast weather, we can get that climate change stuff, which is NIWA's speciality." 

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On this week's podcast:

“The last three years has been a wonderful time, because it has brought everything into perspective”.

Rodney Hide in todays podcast.

That statement has a very broad perspective, and we target some of the most important issues confronting New Zealand today.

We have a response to a letter in last weeks Mailroom from the former National Party MP, as requested.

Ian Wishart queries NIWA's missing storm data and its impact on extreme climate claims.

And we visit The Mailroom with Mrs Producer.

File your comments and complaints at Leighton@newstalkzb.co.nz

Haven't listened to a podcast before? Check out our simple how-to guide.

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The upper North Island is bracing for the impact of Cyclone Gabrielle.

Severe weather warnings and watches are in place for the entire North Island and upper South Island.

Red warnings are in effect for Northland, Auckland, the Coromandel Peninsula, and the Gisborne District north of Tolaga Bay.

At least 23-thousand homes across Auckland and Northland have spent the night without power.

NIWA meteorologist Chris Brandolino says  that Northland and Gisborne have had lots of rain already, but the heaviest rain in Auckland is still to come.

Auckland Harbour Bridge has partially reopened.

However, State Highway One over the Brynderwyns remains closed due to large slips, and Whangarei Heads Road east of Whangarei is closed due to flooding.

ALL rail services and MOST flights in the upper North Island have been cancelled.

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A potential game-changer for New Zealand water safety.

NIWA and Surf Life Saving have developed a rip current identification tool using artificial intelligence, which has had a 90 percent accurate detection rate in trials.

Rip currents are narrow, fast-moving segments of water that travel away from the shore and can reach speeds of 2.5 metres a second.

They're reported as the most hazardous safety risk to beach-goers globally, and are responsible for more deaths in Australia than bush-fires, floods, cyclones, and shark attacks combined.

NIWA coastal scientist, Christo Rautenbach is hopeful the technology will ultimately be rolled out to beaches to alert people to a rip current's presence.

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