Luis Garcia: Forecast Over Estimation, How To Transform Your Approach To Project Management, NoEstimates Unplugged Week

This is one of a series of episodes where Product Owners explain how they used, and benefited from #NoEstimates in their work with teams. 

To know more about #NoEstimates, sign-up to get the first 3 chapters of the book here.

Introduction to #NoEstimates

Luis Garcia, transitioning from estimation discomfort to a #NoEstimates approach as a product owner, discovered its benefits after attending a workshop by Woody Zuill. Faced with the challenges of hard commitments in government projects, he sought to shift focus from when to what and why in project discussions.

A Transformative Project Example 

Implementing #NoEstimates in a kanban team, Luis emphasized work breakdown and comfortable task sizing. This method facilitated stakeholder communication, improved expectation management, and enabled precise progress measurement through metrics like cycle time and using techniques like Monte Carlo forecasting.

Overcoming Implementation Challenges 

When Luis tried to introduce #NoEstimates, he originally faced skepticism, misconceptions about planning, and stakeholder resistance. In those cases, Luis advises focusing on forecasting based on available data, ensuring team stability, and managing expectations effectively. And focusing on progress transparency, instead of trying to change people’s minds.

Strategic Stakeholder Management 

Successfully integrating #NoEstimates involved fostering team accountability and ownership over the refinement process, thereby enhancing stakeholder dialogue and planning efficiency. For example, Luis shares that #NoEstimates shifted the team's focus to identifying and preparing the most valuable tasks, leveraging data for all planning and prioritization decisions. This focus helped to keep stakeholders informed, and improved transparency.

Measuring Success and Communicating Progress 

Without traditional estimates, Luis's team adopted a probabilistic approach to measure and communicate progress, supported by insights from the book "Thinking in Bets" by Annie Duke.

When it came to adopting a different way to measure and communicate progress, practicality was key; even simple tools like Excel were effective for data management in the #NoEstimates process, emphasizing simplicity and scalability.

Advice for #NoEstimates Adopters 

Luis recommends low-change experimentation with #NoEstimates to experience its benefits firsthand and stresses the importance of informative discussions over rigid planning.

Resource Recommendation 

For those considering #NoEstimates, Luis suggests starting with the "NoEstimates" book and following thought leaders like Vasco Duarte, Woody Zuill, and Allen Holub on social media.

About Luis Garcia

Luis is a Program Manager at Formula.Monks, specializes in developing impactful digital products. Luis has over 10 years of experience and several Agile certifications, he adeptly applies Agile frameworks to meet client needs. His background includes a Master's in Computer Engineering and an Executive MBA. He is also fluent in English, Spanish, and French, he values diverse work environments and continuous learning.

You can link with Luis Garcia on LinkedIn.

BONUS: Mastering the Art of Forecasting, Prioritization Paradigms and Flow Metrics with Troy Lightfoot

Agile Planning Insights From The Gambler's Ruin Thought Experiment

Troy, in this Agile Uprising podcast episode, delves into his intriguing journey in the realm of forecasting and estimation for software development. Inspired by that episode, we discuss the concept of Gambler's Ruin, a mathematical problem turned into a game. Troy shares the main insights from Gambler’s Ruin and mentions Prateek Singh of ProKanban.org who has used this concept to demonstrate that even a slight skill advantage can lead to success when focusing product development on what Troy calls “Small Bets” 

Small bets and impact on prioritization

Small bets relate to the implications of spending money on a product idea. It's not just an expense; it's an investment with an anticipated return on investment (ROI). The crucial question arises: how do we strategically place these bets in product development? Here, Troy exposes the fallacy of assuming we can determine value upfront. We also discuss the concept of anti-fragility and highlight how many processes are inadvertently designed to be fragile. In this context, the size of the bet correlates with cycle time, and "time" itself becomes the bet's magnitude. As Annie Duke advocates in her book "Thinking in Bets," small bets bolster resilience, while large bets can lead to vulnerability.

Essential flow metrics and their significance

How do we know we are making small bets? Troy sheds light on the pivotal flow metrics that software development teams should diligently track. He explains the relationship between Work In Progress (WIP) and cycle time, referring to Little's law formula. And he introduces work item age as a metric that can help predict WIP and Cycle time, which gives teams a tangible representation of their current investment. This metric aids in decision-making and fosters a more effective approach to forecasting.

Rethinking traditional prioritization techniques

In the podcast, Troy advocates for a paradigm shift in prioritization practices. He highlights that the more time spent prioritizing work, the larger the bet size (planning time directly affects bet size). Drawing from the wisdom of Don Reinertsen and the principles outlined in the book "Principles of Product Development Flow," he stresses the intrinsic cost associated with all work undertaken. Aligning individuals and teams on priorities is essential, yet the priority itself may hold uncertainty.

To aid teams in this endeavor, Troy discusses the Weighted Shortest Job First (WSJF) framework, and how it offers a pragmatic approach to prioritize tasks based on contributing factors. However, prioritization is directly affected by dependencies, which means that eliminating dependencies becomes a critical step towards making smaller, more manageable bets. For example, by segregating dependencies, teams can significantly reduce bet sizes and enhance predictability.

In this episode, Troy elucidates how conventional prioritization techniques can inadvertently hinder forecasting and predictability. He provides insights into alternative approaches that foster adaptability and more accurate forecasts.

Resource recommendation

For those eager to dive deeper into the world of Agile metrics and predictability, Troy recommends Dan Vacanti's book, "Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability," as an invaluable resource.

About Troy Lightfoot

Troy is a Lean Product Development Coach and trainer for ProKanban.Org. He coaches and trains Scrum, Kanban, and SAFe and other Agile Scaling approaches. Troy transitioned from computer science to full-time Agile coaching, specializing in Lean Portfolio and Program Management. He is also a co-founder of the Agile Uprising Podcast, and an active blogger. For further insights into Troy's work and methodologies, visit ProKanbanTraining.com and explore the Agile Uprising podcast. Additionally, you can delve deeper into Troy's teachings at ProKanban.org.

Sven Ditz erläutert uns in unserer 2. Folge wie die Teams seiner Agentur sitegeist miteinader arbeiten, wie sie in die Communitys und im Open Source verzahnt sind und warum die Zusammenarbeit mit ihren Kunden nach dem RE.A.L-Modell so erfolgreich ist.

Sven Ditz erläutert uns in unserer 2. Folge wie die Teams seiner Agentur sitegeist miteinader arbeiten, wie sie in die Communitys und im Open Source verzahnt sind und warum die Zusammenarbeit mit ihren Kunden nach dem RE.A.L-Modell so erfolgreich ist.