political polls

In this episode of Sustainably Speaking, host Mia Quinn hands over the mic to Susan Jackson from BASF Corporation to talk with two prominent political pollsters who explored people’s perceptions around recycling. 

Jackson is joined by polling experts Cornell Belcher, president and founder of Brilliant Corners Research and Strategies and best known for his polling work for former President Barack Obama, and Brenda Gianiny, president and founder of Axis Research, who’s best known for the work she does with Senator Mitch McConnell. 

Belcher and Gianiny emphasize the importance of accurate polling for driving strategies, and they highlight the distinction between professional polling and media-driven polls. They also talk about their initial lack of knowledge about advanced recycling for plastic and how they now recognize its potential and find that voters and consumers share their enthusiasm.

A tale of two polls - but there's just one answer.  

Newshub-Reid Research and 1News-Verian have released their last opinion surveys before election night on Saturday.  

Both suggest the only viable coalition is National, paired with New Zealand First and ACT - but the margins are narrowing. 

Political Commentator Brigette Morton told Kate Hawkesby that the election is shaping up to be about getting the vote out. 

Advanced numbers are currently sitting behind what was predicted, and there’s been much discussion about the soft and undecided votes. 

The problem with the polls, Morton said, is that for them to actually matter the parties have to get out and get every single vote they can. 

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A tale of two polls - but there's just one answer.  

Newshub-Reid Research and 1News-Verian have released their last opinion surveys before election night on Saturday.  

Both suggest the only viable coalition is National, paired with New Zealand First and ACT - but the margins are narrowing. 

Political Commentator Brigette Morton told Kate Hawkesby that the election is shaping up to be about getting the vote out. 

Advanced numbers are currently sitting behind what was predicted, and there’s been much discussion about the soft and undecided votes. 

The problem with the polls, Morton said, is that for them to actually matter the parties have to get out and get every single vote they can. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Polls are great. I love ‘em and I love the occasional surprise we get from them. 

They're really useful in providing those snapshots of public opinion at any given moment. 

And you'll be aware the political parties use them extensively, not just to see how they're tracking but for all sorts of nefarious stuff like testing out our reactions to policy ideas. 

On top of that there's also a lot of research into the way leading figures are perceived, all part of the process of moulding and shaping them for maximum ballot-box efficiency. 

But the thing about polls that we rarely take much notice of, and should, is the sampling process. 

It's vital, if you want accurate answers to your questions, to be scrupulous about the sampling process. 

Let me explain. 

Say you're doing a political poll; you want to be sure your respondents match the demographics of the population as a whole. 

So, you end up having to interview so many men, so many women, and a set number of people in each age group to match the voting population. 

For example, the 1News poll uses roughly half and half randomly selected people on mobiles and volunteers from a panel; these are people who've done interviews in the past and have agreed to take a phone call from time to time. 

Like most of the others, a sample of about a thousand people are called up over a two or three-day period. 

Thing is, no matter how careful you are errors start to creep in. For a poll using a thousand people, even carried out very cautiously, your results are only good to within plus or minus three points. 

So reporting numbers within that margin —in this example say, how many people are going to vote NZ Loyal— well it's pretty much pointless. 

What's the point of all this? 

The point is that I suspect polls influence the way people vote, possibly even whether people bother to vote. 

And I'm going to suggest that this is such an important election that you can't leave it to the polls to make up your mind. Yet at the same time, we're all voting tactically. We kinda want that extra bit of information. 

For what it's worth, and again I'm not trying to influence your vote, I've made up my mind on the issues—on the principles, and the issues. 

I'll vote on Monday and try to forget about it until 14th. 

Let's just hope we're collectively a little less grumpy once this is all over. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Polls are great. I love ‘em and I love the occasional surprise we get from them. 

They're really useful in providing those snapshots of public opinion at any given moment. 

And you'll be aware the political parties use them extensively, not just to see how they're tracking but for all sorts of nefarious stuff like testing out our reactions to policy ideas. 

On top of that there's also a lot of research into the way leading figures are perceived, all part of the process of moulding and shaping them for maximum ballot-box efficiency. 

But the thing about polls that we rarely take much notice of, and should, is the sampling process. 

It's vital, if you want accurate answers to your questions, to be scrupulous about the sampling process. 

Let me explain. 

Say you're doing a political poll; you want to be sure your respondents match the demographics of the population as a whole. 

So, you end up having to interview so many men, so many women, and a set number of people in each age group to match the voting population. 

For example, the 1News poll uses roughly half and half randomly selected people on mobiles and volunteers from a panel; these are people who've done interviews in the past and have agreed to take a phone call from time to time. 

Like most of the others, a sample of about a thousand people are called up over a two or three-day period. 

Thing is, no matter how careful you are errors start to creep in. For a poll using a thousand people, even carried out very cautiously, your results are only good to within plus or minus three points. 

So reporting numbers within that margin —in this example say, how many people are going to vote NZ Loyal— well it's pretty much pointless. 

What's the point of all this? 

The point is that I suspect polls influence the way people vote, possibly even whether people bother to vote. 

And I'm going to suggest that this is such an important election that you can't leave it to the polls to make up your mind. Yet at the same time, we're all voting tactically. We kinda want that extra bit of information. 

For what it's worth, and again I'm not trying to influence your vote, I've made up my mind on the issues—on the principles, and the issues. 

I'll vote on Monday and try to forget about it until 14th. 

Let's just hope we're collectively a little less grumpy once this is all over. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Polls are coming in thick and fast as we head towards October 14th. 

The latest is the New Zealand Herald's Poll of Polls, which combines results from a range of pollsters, specifically Curia, Kantar Public, Talbot Mills, and Reid Research. 

According to the Poll of Polls, National and ACT’s chances continue to soar. 

They have a 95.1% chance of forming a government if the election were held this weekend, and an 87% chance of forming a government for the actual election date. 

Research Association's Polling spokesperson Murray Campbell told Kerre Woodham that the accuracy of polls, when measured against the election results, is still in pretty good stead. 

He said that discrepancies in the last election can be attributed to polling companies not factoring in early voting. 

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Polls are coming in thick and fast as we head towards October 14th. 

The latest is the New Zealand Herald's Poll of Polls, which combines results from a range of pollsters, specifically Curia, Kantar Public, Talbot Mills, and Reid Research. 

According to the Poll of Polls, National and ACT’s chances continue to soar. 

They have a 95.1% chance of forming a government if the election were held this weekend, and an 87% chance of forming a government for the actual election date. 

Research Association's Polling spokesperson Murray Campbell told Kerre Woodham that the accuracy of polls, when measured against the election results, is still in pretty good stead. 

He said that discrepancies in the last election can be attributed to polling companies not factoring in early voting. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Well, good news last night for National.  

Labour must be left wondering how many more election bribes they'll have to offer before voters begin to nibble. The latest Newshub Reid Research Poll that came out last night has seen National shoot up 4.3 points to 40.9%, and Labour suffered a 5.5% fall from the last Newshub poll, they're on just 26.8%.  

But before gleeful right and centre right voters pull the cork on the St Emilion premier cru that you have cellared for the day those bloody socialists are booted out of office, just remember it is only a poll. And as Jim Bolger once famously said, buggar the polls.  

As we've seen around the world, the pollsters were way off when it came to predicting the results of Brexit, the Trump Clinton presidential campaign, and the 2019 Australian election. And as an article in The Conversation shows, in this country in 2020, the polls immediately prior to the election overestimated the National vote and underestimated Labour’s.  

They took the average of the results of all six polls published during the month before Election Day in 2020. National came out on 30.9%, Labour on 47.2%. But predictions based on the opinion polls were wrong. Labour's election result was 50%, National was not 30.9% they were only 25.6%. So the polls in the final fortnight were overestimating National by an average of 5.8 percentage points and underestimating Labour by 3.7. Lots of numbers, but basically, beware the polls.   

Apparently we, as in Kiwis, used to be relatively forthright when it came to answering questions delivered by pollsters. We'd happily pin our colours to the mast and let complete strangers know our political preference. Not anymore.  

Social media has fragmented opinion and challenged what truth is like nothing else, according to Murray Campbell, the New Zealand Research Associations Polling Spokesman. People are also careful about protecting their privacy. They're less willing to share their political viewpoints when contacted by total.  

Add to that the difficulties of reaching people when landlines have all but disappeared. And door knocking isn't really an option because of the growing number of people living in apartment buildings or when homes are heavily protected by security.  

So do the polls count for anything?  

Well, they must do, and they must re-energize the party faithful if you're National or dampen and quash the spirits of those who are working for Labour. Certainly, in my electorate in Northcote, the party faithful for National have been out in full force. All blue jacketed, waving their signs, waving gleefully at the Onewa turnoff onto the motorway, happy as clams. Haven't seen a single person in a red shirt.  

So it certainly gives a fillip to exhausted campaigners when you see a boost in the polls. But does it mean that Christopher Luxon will be thinking well, that's that then. Time to ease back, jobs done? He will not. The show is not over until the votes are counted. Election Day is the only poll that matters. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Well, good news last night for National.  

Labour must be left wondering how many more election bribes they'll have to offer before voters begin to nibble. The latest Newshub Reid Research Poll that came out last night has seen National shoot up 4.3 points to 40.9%, and Labour suffered a 5.5% fall from the last Newshub poll, they're on just 26.8%.  

But before gleeful right and centre right voters pull the cork on the St Emilion premier cru that you have cellared for the day those bloody socialists are booted out of office, just remember it is only a poll. And as Jim Bolger once famously said, buggar the polls.  

As we've seen around the world, the pollsters were way off when it came to predicting the results of Brexit, the Trump Clinton presidential campaign, and the 2019 Australian election. And as an article in The Conversation shows, in this country in 2020, the polls immediately prior to the election overestimated the National vote and underestimated Labour’s.  

They took the average of the results of all six polls published during the month before Election Day in 2020. National came out on 30.9%, Labour on 47.2%. But predictions based on the opinion polls were wrong. Labour's election result was 50%, National was not 30.9% they were only 25.6%. So the polls in the final fortnight were overestimating National by an average of 5.8 percentage points and underestimating Labour by 3.7. Lots of numbers, but basically, beware the polls.   

Apparently we, as in Kiwis, used to be relatively forthright when it came to answering questions delivered by pollsters. We'd happily pin our colours to the mast and let complete strangers know our political preference. Not anymore.  

Social media has fragmented opinion and challenged what truth is like nothing else, according to Murray Campbell, the New Zealand Research Associations Polling Spokesman. People are also careful about protecting their privacy. They're less willing to share their political viewpoints when contacted by total.  

Add to that the difficulties of reaching people when landlines have all but disappeared. And door knocking isn't really an option because of the growing number of people living in apartment buildings or when homes are heavily protected by security.  

So do the polls count for anything?  

Well, they must do, and they must re-energize the party faithful if you're National or dampen and quash the spirits of those who are working for Labour. Certainly, in my electorate in Northcote, the party faithful for National have been out in full force. All blue jacketed, waving their signs, waving gleefully at the Onewa turnoff onto the motorway, happy as clams. Haven't seen a single person in a red shirt.  

So it certainly gives a fillip to exhausted campaigners when you see a boost in the polls. But does it mean that Christopher Luxon will be thinking well, that's that then. Time to ease back, jobs done? He will not. The show is not over until the votes are counted. Election Day is the only poll that matters. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Labour has plunged 5.5% in the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll, taking the party to just under 27% support.  

National has shot up to 40.9%, while ACT's on 10%, the Greens 12.3% and New Zealand First is tip-toeing up to the threshold at 4.6%. 

Former Senior Ministerial Advisor for the National Party Brigitte Morton told Kate Hawkesby that it’s a significant swing and is likely to stabilize back.  

She said that this is probably the most significant downfalls in popularity that the Labour Government has seen. 

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Labour has plunged 5.5% in the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll, taking the party to just under 27% support.  

National has shot up to 40.9%, while ACT's on 10%, the Greens 12.3% and New Zealand First is tip-toeing up to the threshold at 4.6%. 

Former Senior Ministerial Advisor for the National Party Brigitte Morton told Kate Hawkesby that it’s a significant swing and is likely to stabilize back.  

She said that this is probably the most significant downfalls in popularity that the Labour Government has seen. 

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The psychological impacts are becoming clear for our two main parties 32 days out from the election.  

The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll has Labour down 5.5% to 26.8%, while National has jumped 4.3% to 40.9%. 

ACT has fallen two points to 10%, but can comfortably govern with National.  

Newstalk ZB Political Editor Jason Walls told Mike Hosking that it’s hard for Labour to get supporters out there knocking on doors when they're low. 

He says meanwhile for National, they've hit heights not seen for some time, which will rally and energise their base. 

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I'm surprised that voters don’t really seem to like Chris Hipkins that much. 

We've spent quite a bit of time discussing Chris Luxon’s poor popularity, but take a look at last night’s poll: Hipkins’ is really poor as well.

His personal popularity in last night’s TVNZ poll: 25%.

Last week in the Newshub poll, only 23%.

That means three-quarters of us don’t want him as PM. 

That’s bad for an incumbent prime minister 

Generally a popular prime minister will sit in the thirties or early forties if we like them.

And I'm surprised people don’t seem to like him that much because he technically has everything a politician needs to be popular.

He's good with a one liner, good at batting down tough questions without sounding upset or nervous or angry. Really smiley demeanour, quick to laugh, and open to media, going on talkback, and taking questions.

He talks like a normal kiwi.

He is basically the opposite of what we had before.

So why don’t we like him? 

I suspect it’s because voters aren’t quite as dumb as politicians assume, when they think a quick switcharoo at the top changes a party’s fortunes.

I suspect it’s because voters haven’t forgotten the stuff that frustrated them about Labour.

They gave Chippy a chance, but they haven't seen him prove that his Labour is all that different. 

Tell you what, Labour should be worried about that.

This spells trouble for them because Chippy is the only asset they’ve got.

They've got rubbish policies, they’ve got a rubbish track record in the last 5.5 years, they've got rubbish ministers, and they’ve got rubbish coalition partners.

So the only thing they had going for them is a leader that was more popular than the leader of the National Party. 

Well, that’s not true anymore.

The gap between them about ten weeks ago was 16%, the gap now is 7%. 

Unless he can lift his popularity, Labour might’ve just lost its last best hope. 

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Former Green Party MP Elizabeth Kerekere doesn't believe she's entirely to blame for the Party's four percent point slump in the polls.

The now Independent MP quit the Greens two weeks ago amid an investigation into bullying accusations against her.

Kerekere says that she takes responsibility for sending a message to the wrong chat, but the investigation could have been better handled.

She says if the process had been resolved internally it wouldn't have taken up so much airtime, and the Greens could have spent that time talking about more important things.

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Political Editor Barry Soper joined Heather du Plessis Allan Drive to discuss Jacinda's poll rating and all things politics. 

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Results of a new Wisconsin state-wide poll, released Sunday, show Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in a commanding lead ahead of the Democratic presidential nominees. But, given the surprise outcome of the 2016 presidential election, the question remains: How accurate are political polls in an election year?

Director of the UW-Madison Elections Research Center Barry Burden and the Wisconsin State Journal's State and Politics Editor Matt DeFour discuss the new survey and polling partner YouGov's online method of canvassing the public. 

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