scottish economy

Participants:

• Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
• Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Timestamps:

(00:30) The state of the Scottish economy

(03:20) Scotland's pandemic recovery

(07:40) Last thoughts on the Scottish Budget

(09:50) Future fiscal events and funding decisions

Timestamps

(00:24) Latest GDP data from the ONS

(02:30) IMF forecast of UK economy in 2023

(05:08) UK Statistical Authority weighs in on proper use of data 

(07:48) What have we seen so far from the FM

(09:37) The road ahead for Humza Yousaf 

Chair: Kate Milne, Assistant Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute 

Guests: Professor Mairi Spowage, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute 

Timestamps:

(00:25) Latest GDP figures

(03:00) Energy prices

(05:40) Energy Support Scheme

(07:45) Looking ahead - the Scottish Business Monitor 100th Quarter and export activity 

(11:00) Productivity and the four-day working week

(13:05) Scottish Leadership Contest and policy

Chair: Jack Williamson, Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute

Guest: Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute

Time stamps: 

(00:40) Latest GDP figures 

(04:21) Length and depth of the looming recession 

(06:08) Latest Labour Force Survey data

(09:28) Latest inflation figures

(12:39) Core inflation

(15:23) How well is the Central Bank performing?

(19:44) Upcoming Spring Budget 

Chair: Allison Catalano, Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute

Guest: Professor Mairi Spowage, director of the Fraser of Allander Institute
 

Timestamps

(00:30) Updates on the Scottish labour market and United Kingdom GDP 

(01:45) Is the UK already in a recession?

(02:40) Drivers of poor growth

(4:05) The impact of Thursday's Autumn Budget Review on recession forecasts

(6:10) Additional expected features in the upcoming fiscal statement

(7:50) The impact of the Autumn Budget review in Scotland

Link to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data on Country and Regional Public Sector Finances, mentioned in the podcast:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/financialyearending2021

Music by Lesfm from Pixabay

Chair
David Eiser, Fraser of Allander Institute

Guests
Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute
Steve Williams, Deloitte

Timestamps
(00:35) – What are the main findings in our Commentary today?
(02:30) – How has the Omicron variant impacted the FAI's forecasts?
(05:00) – Steve, Mairi has talked about the impact that restrictions could have on businesses in particular sectors. Given you work with a lot of businesses, what are you hearing about their resilience?
(07:47) – What capacity does the Scottish Government have to support businesses?
(12:39) - Mairi we discuss in the commentary that this all sets the economic context for the Scottish Budget… how did the current outlook for the economy feed in to this?
(17:25) - The BoE has just announced that they are increasing the interest rate, is this a surprise, Mairi?
(19:50) - Steve, have you had a chance to consider the legacy of COP for Deloitte in Scotland?
(24:13) - Coming to you Mairi, what does government need to do to tackle these longer-term challenges moving forward?
(26:38) - Steve, how could inflation impact the outlook for the economy?

(00:49) What does ITP Energised do?

(02:45) How have your operations changed in recent years?

(04:38) How important is the rise of “sustainable” or “green” finance in the progress towards net zero?

(05:58) What opportunities are there for the energy transition in Scotland for supply chain development?

(08:17) How are skills mismatches affecting the transition to net zero? Is this affecting your business?

(10:11) How have you adapted your business during COVID, and how might that shape your operations in the future?

(13:03) Have you noticed a change in the desire from companies to really be green and socially responsible in recent years?

(16:58) What do you think and hope may come out of COP26, both personally and for your business?

(00:00) Headlines from GERS...
(03:36) This year's areas of controversy
(08:52) What drives the differences between Scotland and the UK?
(10:08) What the figures mean for the constitutional debate
(13:47) Is there an issue of structural unfairness in the UK?
(16:52) The latest labour market data
(20:58) Is there any evidence of labour shortages?
(26:36) What about the longer-term outlook?
(31:00) Is there any differential impact on Scotland?
(34:10) Look ahead to what is coming up over the next couple of weeks
 

Contributors
Mairi Spowage, FAI

Emma Congreve, FAI

David Eiser, FAI

Alf Young, The Times

Timestamps

(00:48) Manifesto Analysis

(06:33) A discussion with Alf Young

(20:46) Economic Data and Analysis we’ve published this week

Contributors:

Mairi Spowage, Interim Director, FAI

Emma Congreve, Head of Poverty & Equalities Analysis FAI

Peter MacMahon, Political Editor ITV Border

Timestamps:

(00:44) Doubling the Scottish Child Payment (Emma)

(06:25) Carer and disability social security powers (Emma)

(08:28) Guest segment with Peter MacMahon

(16:56) Universal Basic Income (Mairi)

(21:28) Update on the economy this week (Mairi)

Links

Understanding Social Security in Scotland: Working age disability and carer benefits

https://fraserofallander.org/understanding-social-security-in-scotland-working-age-disability-and-carer-benefits/

Election 2021 Issue brief: Universal Basic Income

https://fraserofallander.org/election-2021-issue-brief-universal-basic-income/

Household incomes and the 2021 election
https://fraserofallander.org/election-2021-issue-brief-universal-basic-income/

The economic backdrop to the Scottish election

https://fraserofallander.org/the-economic-backdrop-to-the-scottish-election/

Episode Notes

Chair
Emma Congreve, Fraser of Allander Institute

Guests
Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute
Adam McGeoch, Fraser of Allander Institute
Gavin Hood, Deloitte

Timestamps
(00:30) – Brief overview of commentary, Mairi
(7:40) – The effects of the pandemic on the hospitality sector, Adam
(10:00) – Homeworking in Scotland, Adam
(12:40) - Implications for Spending, Gavin

(0:58) What is your take on the current situation (JP)

(5:11) Is worse yet to come? (GR)

(9:16) How has the policy response been and what will they need to do next at the UK level (JP)

(14:00) Reflections on the policy response in Scotland (JP & GR)

(19:30) Thinking about the recovery (EC, GR, JP)

(26:58) Edinburgh as a microcosm of the challenges facing the economy (EC, JP)

For those who would like to find out more, SRUC has a dedicated Rural Brexit Business webpage.

Chair
Emma Congreve, Economist and Knowledge Exchange Fellow, FAI

Guests
Professor Andrew Barnes, Professor of Rural Resource Economics, SRUC
Steven Thomson, Senior Agricultural Economist, SRUC

Timestamps
(2.17) Overview of the rural economy, agriculture & the domestic food supply chain in Scotland
(8.22) Impact of Covid-19 so far
(14.25) What support is there for the sector
(20.16) Impact on tourism and remote rural areas
(28.14) Medium to long term prospects, including Brexit

Source

Chair
Mark Mitchell, Fraser of Allander Institute

Speakers
Alf Young, Times Columnist
Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute

Timestamps
(00:20) How this crisis compares with previous crises in the Scottish economy
(4:38) During previous crisis, what did people imagine the long term impacts would be, and how did that bear out?
(9:18) Have the structural changes in the Scottish economy made us more or less resilient to a crisis such as this?
(14:02) Regional impacts of the current crisis
(19:00) Discussion of policy responses
(23:40) Differential approaches in Scotland to guidance
(27:30) Scottish Government Advisory Group
(34:22) Long term impacts of the pandemic on the economy

Source

Chair
Mairi Spowage, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute

Speaker
Helen Martin, STUC
Emma Congreve, Fraser of Allander Institute

Timestamps
(00:25) Reflections on the current crisis and the impact on workers.
(03:45) How prepared were we for this pandemic?
(07:50) Policy measures that have been introduced and who is falling through the gaps
(12:24) Sectors of the economy that have precarious workers
(15:48) How could the economy be safely started up in a gradual way?
(19:39) Valuing key workers
(23:53) Long term impacts of the crisis on economy, the labour market and society

Source

Chair
Graeme Roy, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute

Speaker
Tracy Black, Director of CBI Scotland

Timestamps
[00:18] Scale of the challenge facing business and how businesses have responded
[10:14] What do businesses think about the policy response, what’s been working and what needs further though?
[19:05] How do we start the economy back up?
[27:50] Long-term changes

Source