the road to autonomy

Ian Rust, Founder & CEO, Revoy joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the development of Revoy and why hybrid is the right approach to electrifying Class 8 trucks. 

The conversation begins with Ian discussing Revoy’s approach to hybrid technology for electrified trailers.

We view hybrid definitely the most viable solution for electrification in the Class 8 market. – Ian Rust

The Revoy EV hooks up in-between a tractor and a trailer in a matter of minutes. Revoy is able to do this, because they deliver pre-charged EVs to their customers, eliminating the charging downtime. 

By bringing in that pre-charged battery pack we can integrate in under five minutes. – Ian Rust

One of the major benefits to the Revoy system is an increase the MPG (miles per gallon). The Revoy test fleet has been able to achieve 67 mpg in a diesel class 8 truck. When trucks are traveling on hilly roads, the extra torc delivered by the hybrid system allows trucks to keep pace with the other motorists on the road. When coming down a hill, the system’s regenerative braking activates, assisting the professional driver and increasing safety. 

We can actually stop a tractor trailer with a Revoy EV applied 30% sooner. – Ian Rust

Revoy’s EVs will not be sold, they will be leased on a per mile basis with zero up-front payment. They will be deployed at strategically located hubs where the drivers will stop and swap their Revoy EV in four minutes. 

You can just have essentially uncapped long-haul range on electric power by just stopping and swapping in four minutes. – Ian Rust

Wrapping up the conversation, Ian shares his thoughts on what the future will look like for electrified class 8 trucks. 

Recorded on Tuesday, February 20, 2023

Episode Chapters

0:00 Introduction 

0:37 Revoy’s Approach to Electrified Trailers

3:03 Increases in MPG (miles per gallon)

5:08 Safety and Insurance Benefits

8:49 Revoy Business Model

12:56 Infrastructure 

20:28 Stop and Swap

24:20 Hybrid Technology 

31:42 The Inspiration for Revoy

34:40 Scaling Revoy 

40:35 Future of Hybrid Solutions for Class 8 Trucks

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Timothy Dooner, Host, WHAT THE TRUCK?!?, joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discus the rise and fall of digital freight brokerages and the growth of autonomous trucking

The conversation begins with Dooner discussing his outlook for the freight market.

There is 8. 1% less brokerages than there were a year ago at the start of this year. But there’s still 17% more brokerages than we started at the pandemic. Everyone’s been waiting for not just volumes to go up, but the way freight works, it’s volume plus capacity. They’ve been waiting for the capacity to go down. Volumes are looking a little bit better. Things are receding and this year I’m hearing a lot more optimism. – Timothy Dooner

The optimism is being shared by Walmart as there are rumors circulating that Walmart is looking to develop a digital freight brokerage. Since Walmart operates their own fleet, they have a unique data set that could potentially help them leapfrog the competition when and if they are introduce a digital freight brokerage service. 

The freight market is currently turbulent as the demand for freight and the capacity to haul the freight are not in sync. Then there is the California electric truck mandate which will ultimately end up increasing the costs to ship freight, hurting both the carriers and the consumer. Could these mandates help to accelerate the adoption of autonomous truck as they are cheaper to operate? 

It’s possible and as we are seeing in California, autonomous vehicle technology is not always welcome. in San Francisco vandals set fire to a Waymo autonomous vehicle with a firework, burning the vehicle to the ground. If the regulatory environment in California eventually allows autonomous trucks to operate, will similar vandals also try to cause damage to autonomous trucks? 

Autonomous trucking is going to play a major role in the future of trucking and the global economy. As the technology is developed different business models are going to come to fruition and one of those is the licensing model. Kodiak has the potential to license their SensorPods technology, creating a lucrative revenue stream as they develop their autonomous trucking platform. This is in addition to their growing defense business.

Then there is Uber. Uber has investments in Aurora and Waabi, and has the Uber Freight division. Yet they do not operate an autonomous trucking fleet. Grayson and Dooner go onto dicuss Uber’s autonomous trucking investment strategy and who ultimately owns the asset.

Wrapping up the conversation, Dooner shares his 2024 outlook for the trucking market. 

Recorded on Wednesday, February 14, 2023

Episode Chapters

• 0:00 Introduction 
• 1:34 Freight Market Outlook 
• 7:31 Walmart’s Rumored Digital Freight Brokerage 
• 10:42 Are Electric Truck Mandates Accelerating the Adoption of Autonomous Trucks 
• 13:57 Vandals in San Fransisco Set Fire to a Waymo Autonomous Vehicle 
• 18:20 Commercializing Autonomous Trucking 
• 25:32 The Business of Kodiak Robotics
• 28:15 Autonomous Delivery Drones 
• 31:55 Uber’s Autonomous Trucking Investment Strategy 
• 39:18 Who Owns the Asset? 
• 42:59 Tesla Cybertruck 
• 43:52 Apple Vision Pro 
• 51:08 2024 Trucking Outlook

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and analysis on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Matt McLelland, VP of Sustainability and Innovation, Covenant joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss why it all comes down to unit economics when fleets are evaluating new trucking technologies such as battery electric trucks and autonomous trucks. 

The conversation begins with Matt discussing how Covenant is thinking about implementing battery electric trucks into their fleet. With limited range and reduced weight capacities, the right lane and freight have to be matched up to ensure a successful run. 

The fleet of the future is actually going to be something that is made up of a lot different pieces of equipment that reflect the different and diverse needs of our customer base. – Matt McLelland

Reduced capacity comes with increased cost, as battery electric trucks cost roughly 50% more then traditional diesel trucks. Factor in stubborn inflation, slim margins and a Fed Funds interest rate of 5.33%, fleets are hamstrung when it comes financing the increased cost of battery electric trucks.

Is a hybrid solution the right solution? As companies look to lower their carbon emissions, could electrified trailers be the solution? Or it could be renewable diesel or B100 (pure biodiesel)?

Hybrid solutions that are not full on zero-emission vehicles, that’s what I think the future is. – Matt McLelland

The costs to implement low carbon, zero-emissions technologies for trucks is going to cost more. For the business model to work, that cost is going to have to passed onto the consumer. But the economic reality is, consumers will not pay more for shipping as they are used to fast free shipping commonly known as the “Amazon effect“. 

Could the push towards low carbon and zero-emissions trucks inadvertently accelerate the implementation and adoption of autonomous trucks?

It all comes down to the unit economics. – Matt McLelland

Autonomous trucks offer better unit economics than traditional trucks, and the economics only get better as the size of the fleet increases. Covenant is taking a measured approach to autonomous trucking by rolling up their sleeves and developing relationships with the developers. This approach has led to commercial relationships with Aurora and Torc. 

Wrapping up the conversation, Matt shares his thoughts on the future of the trucking industry.

Recorded on Friday, February 9, 2023

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and analysis on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Pete Bigelow, Senior Reporter, Automotive News joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the current state of the mobility markets. Markets that are in flux with EV sales falling, GM rebooting Cruise, while Waymo scales and the autonomous truck industry prepares to launch commercial operations. 

The conversation begins with Pete sharing his insights into the electric vehicle market with the backdrop of 5,000 U.S. car dealers sending a second letter to President Biden urging the administration to “hit the brakes” on the EV push. Are these dealers urging The President to hit the brakes because non-Tesla EVs are simply not selling? 

The EV market can’t be lumped into a monolith, it’s really how certain companies are approaching a change from early adopters to mass-market consumers and that’s where we get into the nitty gritty of a potential slowdown. – Pete Bigelow 

Tesla with an EV U.S. marketshare north of 55% continues to dominate the market. Raising the question, is there even an EV market in the U.S.? Or is the market for electric vehicles in the U.S., simply Tesla?

Tesla is running away with the domestic market right now. – Pete Bigelow 

Could this change when BYD enters the U.S. market? If and when BYD enters the U.S. market, they will be able to undercut the Detroit automakers as their cost structure is dramatically lower. Is an $18,000 EV the tipping point that supercharges the EV market to the detriment of Detroit?

Or does the potential Apple Car become the tipping point? The average Apple user spends 5 hours a day on their Apple devices. Spending more time in an Apple car would only help Apple strengthen their ecosystem and grow the services business. 

That’s the promise of the Apple Car, they are just going to capture your attention in one more living space. – Pete Bigelow 

A company that has captured the attention of the industry, regulators and the overall automotive market is Cruise. The company is in the midst of a reboot following an unfortunate incident. How will the reboot work? What role will GM play in a rebooted Cruise? Will GM be forced to rebrand Cruise as they look to rebuild public trust? Grayson and Pete discuss a myriad of possible scenarios. 

While GM works on a reboot plan for Cruise, Waymo is expanding. When Waymo officially expands operations in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles, they will be operating in a 635 square mile ODD (operational design domain). This will be the largest deployment of autonomous vehicles anywhere in the world.

Soon the autonomous trucking industry could surpass the Waymo deployment as the industry prepares to launch driver-out commercial operations later this year. The autonomous trucking industry is growing and new partnerships are being developed that will impact the industry long-term. 

Wrapping up the conversation, Pete shares what he is watching in the mobility markets this year.

Recorded on Friday, January 26, 2024

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and analysis on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Mike Murphy, Republican Political Strategist, Co-Host of Hacks of Tap and CEO, EV Politics joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the politics of electric vehicles and their impact on the 2024 election.

The conversation begins with Mike discussing his cross-country journey from central New Hampshire to Los Angeles in a VW ID.4 electric vehicle over the summer, and how this adventure led to the founding of EV Politics. Today, electric vehicles have become full of politics and a presidential campaign issue. 

I just do not like the bashing because I am a free market conservative. I think people to aught to make a choice and these cars have become loaded with politics. – Mike Murphy

When consumers choose to buy and drive a non-Tesla electric vehicle, they feel overwhelmed by the fact that public charging networks are unreliable — leading to charging anxiety. Which is further stoking the political divide with EVs. 

This could all be changing as the EV industry moves to the North American Charging Standard (NACS) created by Teslaand developed into a standard by SAE International. Drivers of non-Tesla vehicles will soon have the ability to use the Tesla Supercharger Network, increasing their ability to access reliable charging. 

In a national survey of 600 voters with household income of $50K+ representing 67% of U.S. 2020 electorate, EV Politics conducted a campaign style poll to gather the pulse in America of electric vehicles. 

When asked what their biggest concern about owning an EV is, the top two answers were expensive (58%) and insufficient range for trips (53%). Outside of the top two answers, 43% of respondents cited unreliable charger networks. 

From a political perspective, both Republicans and Democrats agree that cost and insufficient range for trips are their biggest concerns when it comes to buying an EV. However, they disagree about what their friends and relatives will think if they bought an EV.

Electric vehicles are not perceived as cars, they are perceived as political statements. – Mike Murphy

Then there is Elon Musk. Is he a good ambassador for electric vehicles? It all depends on who you ask. Republicans have a favorable opinion, as 61% agree while only 34% of Democrats agree. Then there is China and the underling issue of Chinese EVs coming to America. How will this potentially impact the politics of EVs and how Americans view EVs? 

The future of mobility around the world is going electric. Do we want America to be a big player in that or do we want to be Britain in the 70’s and we just keep closing Rover plants? – Mike Murphy

America has a choice to make as it relates to the future of mobility. If politics overtake commonsense, America will be left behind. America has to invest in the mining and refining of critical minerals in the U.S. Controlling the EV supply chain is a national security issue and one that should not be taken lightly as the world transitions to electric vehicles. 

With the 2024 presidential campaign underway and the possibility of a change in The White House, the question around EV subsidies will continue to linger. What impact could a second President Donald Trump administration have on the EV industry? Would Tesla be invited to The White House to promote American ingenuity? Or would the company continue to be sidelined as it has been for the past four years? These are all outstanding questions that will be answered over the next 12 months. 

Wrapping up the conversation, Mike discuss how he see the EV market evolving over the next four years from a political standpoint.

Recorded on Tuesday, January 23, 2024

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, Texas Oil and Gas Association joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss his 2024 outlook for the oil & natural gas markets. 

The conversation begins with Dean sharing his outlook for the oil and natural gas markets.

The outlook for oil and natural gas looks bright. – Dean Foreman

Last year, the world set a new record high for oil demand of 101 million barrels per day. As we begin 2024, attention is now turning to geopolitics and global economic concerns. In Argentina, Javier Milei was sworn in as President on December 10th in a referendum on the economy with aspirations to rebuild the economy and lower inflation by unleashing economic growth. 

With economic and political reforms, Argentina has the ability to become an exporter of oil from the Vaca Muerta shale formation. It has been estimated that the Vaca Muerta formation has the ability to produce more than 1 million barrels of oil per day by 2030.

Argentina because it has shale oil, the Vaca Muerta formation in Neuquén. It’s like the Marcellus in the United States, expect it’s much deeper and super high quality rock. They have the potential to really flip and become an exporter much like the United States. But they haven’t had the business climate to be able to support from a macro perspective companies with predictability trusting to go in and invest a lot in the ground. – Dean Foreman

If the business climate changes, it will be interesting to watch and see what multi-national companies begin to invest in the Vaca Muerta formation. In the United States, economists are projecting a soft landing for the economy. If indeed a soft landing is achieved, more investments are going to be needed to bring the amounts of oil and natural gas to the market that are needed to sustain growth.

A portion of economic growth can be attributed to tourism demand, as Bloomberg is reporting that 2024 will be a record-setting year for travel. The International Air Transport Association is projecting that 4.7 billion individuals globally will board planes in 2024, generating $964 billion in airfare revenue. The cruise ship industry is also seeing growth as it is estimated that 35.7 million passengers will board a cruise ship in 2024, up from 31.5 million in 2023. 

If the consumer trend of opting experiences over purchasing goods continues, there could be an uptick in global oil demand. With the Federal Funds Rate at 5.53%, one has to question how long consumers will continue to spend on travel until they feel the weight of the high interest rate environment. If consumers cut back on travel, what is the impact on oil and will diesel demand offset the potential weakness in gasoline? Grayson and Dean discuss the potential scenarios and what the outcome could look like. 

One of the biggest uncertainties coming into this year, from a household and a corporate perspective is the delayed impact of the pent up effect of having raised interest rates so much, so fast. – Dean Foreman

Another trend to watch is the re-emergence of hybrid sales in the U.S. In 2023, U.S. individuals purchased over 1 million hybrids, up 76% year-over-year. It’s a clear signal that consumers are still willing to purchase vehicles that have an internal combustion engine. Whether this is being driven by a pricing decision or the simple fact that consumers want reliability and consistency has yet to be determined. What has been determined is that there is clearly a trend emerging. 

A tree that is powering Texas to produce 5.7 million barrels of oil per day, its highest level since 1981. In 2023, Texas accounted for 54.7% of U.S. drilling, it’s highest level since 2019. 

In Q3 2023, the Permian Basin set a new production record of 10 million barrels per day of oil equivalent. Today, the Permian Basin accounts for 27% of the total U.S. oil and natural gas production. 

It has the ability to continue to expand, again because of the quality of resources as well as the ability to get pipelines without dealing with the morass of many of the federal energy regulatory commission, interstate pipeline regulations. 

With Texas’ nimble intrastate pipeline system, it has the unique ability to attract capital and respond to upstream production. That’s why the Permian Basin has really stood out versus anywhere else in the country. – Dean Foreman

Wrapping up the conversation, Dean shares his insights on what to watch in the oil and natural gas markets over the next quarter.

Recorded on Thursday, January 4, 2024

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Edwin Olson, CEO & Co-Founder of May Mobility joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss going driver-out in Sun City, Arizona and the economics of the business. 

The conversation begins with Edwin discussing what went into launching fully driverless operations in Sun City, Arizona. 

There is a bunch of technology that has to come together to meet your safety requirements and your capabilities. But actually pulling a safety driver out is about so much more than the technology. We have to bring our riders, our partners, the regulators, insurance companies, first responders. There is a huge amount of work that has to come together to get everyone ready to give this project a thumbs-up. – Edwin Olson

May Mobility chose to launch in Sun City because of the driving environment and the economic potential. From a technical standpoint they were able to go driver-out in Sun City because of their Multi-Policy Decision Making system. May Mobility’s Multi-Policy Decision Making system has enabled them to deploy in multiple geographic and weather environments such as downtown Detroit, northern Minnesota and Sun City, Arizona. 

You are never going to become a Babe Ruth by only playing tee ball. You have to start to taking the pitches and playing the hard game. – Edwin Olson

All of May Mobility’s deployments operate year round, in sun, rain, snow and are revenue generating. The business model being implemented by May compliments public transit as it offers a better return on transit investments for cities and transit agencies. Currently it costs roughly $150 an hour to operate a transit bus in most cities. 

Our revenue potential is about $150 an hour per vehicle. – Edwin Olson

The service being provided by May Mobility is as an on-demand point-to-point service being delivered in micro-transit model. As the company gradually removes the safety driver from operations, margins are expected to be around 60%. Driverless operations will ensure a better service without having to rely on drivers who might not show up for work. 

By switching into a rider-only product we can solve the labor problem and be able to turn on this very high margin business. – Edwin Olson

As May continues to grow, the company will look to add new vehicles to the mix in addition to their current fleet of fully redundant Toyota Sienna hybrid minivans. 

We are constantly evaluating other platforms that could help expand our platform offerings so that we can grow our accessible market and grow the business in turn. – Edwin Olson

May Mobility is a business. Edwin understands this as he is highly focused on developing a business model that is scalable and profitable long-term. When he meets with investors, he breaks down the economics of the May Mobility model and why they are different from the traditional robo-taxi business. 

In addition to operating an autonomous vehicle business, May is licensing their data to insurance companies. Creating an entirely new revenue stream for the company. 

Wrapping up the conversation, Ed shares his vision for the future of May Mobility. 

Recorded on Thursday, December 21, 2023

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

James Reed, COO, Kodiak Robotics joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss how Kodiak is scaling the business with financial discipline, economic scenario planning and operational readiness as the company ramps up commercial operations heading into 2024. 

The conversation begins with James sharing his thoughts on the current state of the autonomous trucking industry.

Next year DARPA will have been 20 years ago, finally all of us that our on this path are at the point were autonomous vehicles are real and driver-out autonomy in the trucking business is going to happen in the very near future. – James Reed

Over the next decade the autonomous trucking industry is going to enter the commercialization phase with a strong focus on financial discipline. Financial discipline is one of James’ strong suits as he was previously CEO of USA Truck that was successfully sold to DB Schenker in September 2022 for $31.72 per share in cash. 

It’s not just success that James brings to Kodiak, it’s a deep understanding of economic cycles and how those impact operations and cash-flow. In the depths of 2008 financial crisis, James served as Division CFO at Washington Mutual. The bank was ultimately acquired by J.P. Morgan Chase because of their sub-prime mortgage portfolio. During the banking crisis James saw first hand how one division that takes on too much risk can sink an entire corporation. 

I learned about this dichotomy of you can be widely successful and still fail as a team. – James Reed

Being in banking is about risk management and this is a skill that influences how James runs operations at Kodiak. To manage risk, the team matters. You have to hire the best to mitigate the risk and limit your potential downside exposure. Including planning and forecasting as the economic environments can change suddenly. 

As we prepare to enter 2024, we could be entering a potential recessionary environment depending on the actions of the Federal Reserve and how the economy reacts to those actions. 

Well run companies plan for upsides, downsides including recessions as part of their on-going operations. – James Reed

Kodiak is planning for this potential economic environment as was an economic growth environment. Planning for all economic environments and what the potential impact will be on the Kodiak business is one of the core strengths that James brings to the team from his years of financial experience. 

The Kodiak business is not a pure-play autonomous trucking business, it’s a diversified business with a defense division because of the ability of their autonomy stack to work in unstructured environments. On December 5th, it was announced that Kodiak has been awarded a $49.9 million, 24-month United States Department of Defense agreement to help automate future U.S. Army ground vehicles. Moving forward, defense will be a key pillar of the Kodiak business. 

We plan to become a defacto prime in the autonomous software space. – James Reed

In 2024, Kodiak will continue focus on commercialization, industry partnerships and driver-out operations on public roads. 

Wrapping up the conversation, James shares his vision for the future of Kodiak which includes a potential IPO.

Recorded on Tuesday, December 12, 2023

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

David Welch, Detroit Bureau Chief, Bloomberg joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the future of Cruise and how the robo-taxi market will shakeout. What moves will Waymo, Zoox and Motional make now that Cruise has been sidelined for the foreseeable future?

The conversation begins with David discussing how GM moves forward with Cruise after an October 2, 2023 incident involving a pedestrian in San Fransisco was allegedly mired in a coverup. The supposed actions led to the grounding of the Cruise fleet, the resignation of Co-Founder & CEO Kyle Vogt and a 24% reduction in the workforce including nine key executives. 

They are going to start-off in one city, so they are sort of stepping back 18 months. In terms of their roll-out, you know it does raise a big question if they even really push robo-taxi, or does this at some point does this become part of General Motors developing self-driving personally owned autonomous vehicles. – David Welch

On the news of the 24% reduction in the workforce at Cruise, GM’s stock rallied 6.65% to close at $36.08 on December 14, 2023. If Cruise is indeed absorbed by GM, the questions become what division will Cruise become part of, will there be a big pivot away from robo-taxis to personally owned autonomous vehicles and how will GM retain and hire new AI talent?

Or could GM shift the Cruise model to that of a licensing model? A model where GM licenses Cruise’s autonomous driving technology to other OEMs? This model could resonate with Wall Street as there would be a clear path to Cruise becoming a self-sustaining business unit of GM with high-margins. 

I think that could eventually be the real race or battle between Cruise and Waymo, licensing this technology to the car companies. – David Welch

Licensing will be one of the core elements of autonomous driving technology in the future. Today autonomous vehicles are a luxury product, not a mass market product. With autonomous vehicles being a luxury product, there is an opportunity to build a commerce layer into the rider experience. Could Alphabet look to possibly integrate YouTube into the Waymo as a monitizable experience?

With Cruise currently sidelined, could Waymo look to take advantage of the market conditions and accelerate the roll-out of the Waymo One program? Potentially, but Waymo appears to be sticking to their well managed roll-out that includes ride-hailing tours and an early rider program. 

Then there is Zoox, an Amazon company. When do they make their move? Zoox has been very quiet as the autonomous vehicle market accelerated and then contracted over the last year. Is now the time that Zoox takes advantage of the market conditions and introduces a paid robo-taxi service that could be added at a later date? Or is Amazon working on a Prime-Mobility tier?

Wrapping up the conversation, David shares his insights and thoughts on how he sees the robo-taxi market evolving over the next five years. 

The thing that is really going to have to change and evolve is what the business model is. – David Welch

Recorded on Tuesday, December 19, 2023

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ali Javidan, Founder & CEO, Range Energy joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss electrified trailers and the impact that these trailers will have on truck fleets. 

The conversation begins with Ali sharing what inspired him to create an electrified trailers startup. It all starts with a question he asked himself; What if we electrified the trailer? 

Taking a survey of the industry, nobody was paying attention to trailers, expect for a few nerds and myself. So I decided to a start a venture trying to help bring some real technology to the trailer and really help hybridize these fleets in a meaningful way without disrupting how the fleets work. – Ali Javidan

When fleets deploy an electrified trailer they are achieving on average 30% – 40% increase in fuel efficiency on a mixed route that includes city and highway driving. If the truck is exclusively driving in cities with heavy loads such as beverages, fleets are seeing a 40% – 50% increase in fuel efficiency.

40% reduction in fuel consumption actually equals somewhere around 70% reduction in harmful emissions output. – Ali Javidan

Increasing fuel efficiency is wonderful, but do professional drivers enjoy driving the trucks equipped with electrified trailers? They very much do so, as the electrified trailers increase the overall operational efficiency of driving the truck. As these trailers scale, there could be potential safety increases as these trailers will have a higher-level of traction that could potently lead to safer driving conditions in adverse weather. 

As autonomous trucks scale commercial operations, there is an opportunity to attached electrified trailers and automate the slider adjustment, lift gate door or the lift gate. Automating the trailer compliments the autonomous truck, enabling a true autonomous operation. This is possible because the electrified trailer has a controls platform, a power platform and a communications platform. 

As much as we can be framed as disrupters in this industry, we don’t want to disrupt anything. We just want to give everybody better tools. – Ali Javidan

Range Energy is going to commence commercial operations in 2024 with pilot customers, followed by a larger pilot deployment in 2025 leading up to the full commercial launch in 2027/2028. 

Wrapping up the conversation, Ali shares his thoughts on how he sees the electrified trailer market evolving. 

Recorded on Friday, December 8, 2023

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Jana Breitkopf, Managing Director, Mercedes pay USA joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss how Mercedes pay is enabling the future of in-car experiences. 

The conversation begins with Jana discussing how Mercedes is approaching in-car payments. 

We want to make it as easy and as convenient as possible for our drivers to use services like parking, charging or fueling. – Jana Breitkopf

Mercedes began creating Mercedes pay over five years ago to meet the expectations of their drivers. As technology advances, in the future drivers and passengers will be able to say “Hey, Mercedes” order golf balls from Amazon. When this moment happens, the era of in-car commerce will be ushered in.

This moment will overlap with the commercialization of personally owned autonomous vehicles as Mercedes pay will enable in-car experiences as it will be the payment layer that makes those experiences possible. 

Autonomous driving will leverage in-car commerce as a revenue channel. – Jana Breitkopf

When autonomous vehicles are combined with a payment platform, a global commerce platform will be created. The future of in-car experiences will be built around apps and services that will create value for passengers. Unlocking this value creates new profitable revenue opportunities for Mercedes. 

Mercedes pay is available today in 44 markets around the world. In Germany, Mercedes pay has a partnership with Mastercard where customers can pay for fueling directly from their vehicle. This partnership eliminates the paying for gas friction in Germany, as there is no pay at the pump service. Instead motorists have to go into the store and pay, which can be inconvenient and frustrating at times. 

Over the coming years, new markets for Mercedes pay will be coming online. As new markets come online, Mercedes pay will adapt to the local markets customs, data compliance/security and regulatory requirements. Ensuring that the system just simply works with the tap of a button or a simple “Hey, Mercedes”. 

Wrapping up the conversation, Jana shares her vision for the future of Mercedes pay.

Recorded on Friday, December 8, 2023

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Lee White, Founder & President, LM White Consulting joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss why autonomous trucking is a big business opportunity and what the economics of that business will look like when autonomous trucks are operating commercially. 

The conversation begins with Lee discussing the current state of the autonomous trucking industry. 

We are on track, we are on plan, we are moving forward. – Lee White

The autonomous trucking industry is healthy and the health of the industry is being validated with the continued investments from institutional investors such as T. Rowe Price and Softbank. While economically healthy, the industry is currently under strain from the perceived notion that autonomous trucks and autonomous vehicles are one in the same.

The consistently for the AV trucking operations is a very positive advantage over robo-taxis, and I think the trucking group has to begin to separate itself from this clumping everything together. – Lee White

To truly demonstrate the benefits of autonomous trucking, the industry has to take a hold of the narrative and demonstrate to the public, policymakers, investors and the traditional trucking industry the true benefits of autonomy. Autonomous trucks will lead to lower cost goods (helping to reduce inflation), more productivity, and more robust and secure supply chain. 

Daimler Truck is taking the lead on messaging to investors and Wall Street. During their Capital Market Day 2023, Daimler Truck announced that autonomous trucking would be one of the key pillars of their business. By 2027, autonomous trucking will begin to unlock a new high-margin business. By 2030, Daimler Truck is projecting revenue north of €3 billion with EBIT potential north of €1 billion.

To unlock this business Daimler Truck is investing responsibly and managing their capital expenditures. For the first nine months of 2023, Daimler Truck has invested €155 million in “other business activities and corporate items which comprised primarily of operational expenses related to their autonomous driving business”. Up from €139 million for the nine months of 2022, an increase of €16 million year-over-year. 

This is a responsible investing strategy that is both prudent and sustainable for Daimler Truck long-term. It’s one that more companies developing autonomous trucks should follow. The model for developing and commercializing autonomous trucks varies widely. 

Volvo is taking a slightly different path to autonomous trucking through their transport-as-a-service model where they will own and operate the autonomous trucks.

[Volvo] wants to sell you you transportation as service and that becomes how they sell trucks now. It’s like the airline industry, you don’t buy an airplane engine anymore from GE or Rolls-Royce, you buy time, you get run hours. If that’s the new model, that will be very successful. – Lee White

As we head into the holiday season with a slowing economy and consumers deprioritizing spending on physical goods and prioritizing spending on experiences, the freight industry will have to adapt to the changing consumer spending patterns. The slowdown in the freight market has been ongoing for sometime and YELLOW, a 100 year-old LTL carrier was a casualty of market conditions and union negotiations, as the company filed for voluntary Chapter 11 petitions on August 6th, 2023.

97% of all trucking companies have 20 or less trucks. There is going to be a lot of them that are right on the edge. – Lee White

Wrapping up the conversation, Lee and Grayson discuss the impact that California’s zero-emissions trucks regulation will have on the trucking market. 

Recorded on Thursday, November 9, 2023

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Sam Abidi, Chief Commercial Officer, Monarch Tractor joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss Monarch’s autonomous MK-V tractor and how the growing labor shortages are accelerating the adoption of autonomous tractors on farms around the world. 

The conversation begins with Sam discussing how Monarch Tractor is approaching autonomy. 

From day one we were thinking about how you could build an autonomy kit that could go on a tractor, that can essentially reach a price point that most farmers can use, and where we landed is that you need to do a bottom up build of the tractor — that tractor is called the MK-V. – Sam Abidi

With the global economy shifting to a labor light economy, due to a growing labor shortage, autonomy applications on farms is rapidly accelerating. 

If you actually go talk to some of our farmers, many of them are coming to us because it is an alternative to having no one do that job. – Sam Abidi

Monarch takes a farmer frugal approach to autonomy as they know every dollar counts on a farm. The farmer frugal approach enables Monarch to charge farmers $800 a month to unlock the autonomous capabilities of the $90,000 MK-V tractor, which is less the equivalent labor cost. 

In the future as the model evolves, Monarch is exploring the possibility of introducing a tractor-as-a-service model for select regions around the world. If this model comes to fruition, Monarch will not hold the asset (tractor) on their balance sheet. Instead they will look to a partner to hold the assets (tractor) as it is not an effective use of their capital to hold tractors on their balance sheet.

Today, Monarch has a financial services agreement with CNH Industrial Capital America to provide financing for the MK-V tractor. The Monarch MK-V is an all-electric tractor with a swappable battery that can run 14-hours. 

Financing is an important part of farm economics. – Sam Abidi

When a Monarch tractor is deployed on a farm, farmers control all the applications of the autonomous tractor with their proprietary WingspanAI digital platform. 

If you automate a tractor and you have a dozen tractors or two dozen tractors running the farm and then you connect those to a digital platform, that essentially tracks everything from when they are dispatched to what they are doing to how well they are doing it, you have essentially digitized the farm. – Sam Abidi

The data that Monarch’s autonomous tractors are gathering will enable the company to create new revenue streams in the future by monetizing the rich amount of data that the tractors gather on a daily basis. 

To scale, Monarch has a partnership with Foxconn to manufacturer the MK-V at their Ohio facility. The decision to engage Foxconn for manufacturing was made from the lessons that the founders learned from their years in the automotive industry. 

Wrapping up the conversation, Sam shares his vision for the future of Monarch Tractor.

Recorded on Tuesday, November 7, 2023

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Sterling Anderson, Co-Founder & Chief Product Officer, Aurora joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the founding of Aurora, the economics of the Aurora business model why the world’s best product is a very profitable product. 

The conversation begins with Sterling discussing why Chris Urmson, Drew Bagnel and himself came together to form Aurora in 2016. 

We saw a lot of players in the ecosystem at the time struggling to figure out the right path. A credible independent player in our view could change the game for them and unlock the potential of a powerful ecosystem from OEMs to carriers to private fleets to even Tier 1’s and companies who provide some of the backend service. 

We felt like a credible autonomy player who played our position and enabled or unlocked the rest of the industry could deliver tremendous value here, and we did not see much of that at the time. – Sterling Anderson 

Being an independent company is one of the keys to Aurora’s success as it has allowed them to build an industry wide solution that unlocks potential for both cars and trucks. The original product roadmap for the company which is still intact today was to look at trucking, ride-hailing and local goods delivery.

Trucking was top of the list in terms of the first product that we wanted to go to market with. – Sterling Anderson 

In 2018, Aurora began laying the foundation for their autonomous trucking product when they integrated their autonomous driving stack into a Volvo truck and began testing on a track in partnership with Volvo. 

Trucking is the first product, ride-hailing will follow. – Sterling Anderson 

The Aurora business model for trucking today is transportation-as-a-service, as the business and technology matures, the model will evolve into a driver-as-a-service model. 

This is a model where we are licensing the self-driving system, inclusive of the hardware, the software and the data services required to operate it to our customers who are in turn purchasing either the truck from the OEM who provides it or purchasing a set of solutions. – Sterling Anderson 

Customers who sign up for the driver-as-a-service model will pay a utilization service fee (per mile fee). To keep the trucks up and running at optimal performance, Aurora trucks are designed for reliability and serviceability. This design approach allows Aurora to optimize the economics of their operations. 

In my view the world’s best product is also a very profitable product. – Sterling Anderson 

As Aurora prepares for driver-out commercial operations in late 2024 with 20 trucks on the Dallas to Houston lanes, the autonomous trucks will be operated under the transportation-as-a-service model. In 2025/2026, the customers operating under the transportation-as-a-service model will begin to transition to a driver-as-a-service model where they will own and operate the assets. 

Wrapping up the conversation, Sterling shares his vision for the future of Aurora. 

Recorded on Friday, October 27, 2023

Chapters:

0:00 The Road to Autonomy Index

0:56 Introduction

1:18 Why Chris Urmson, Drew Bagnel and Sterling Anderson founded Aurora

3:38 The Vision for Aurora

8:07 Going Public with Volvo and PACCAR

10:57 Local Goods Delivery and the Middle Mile

12:34 Aurora Trucking Business Model

24:52 Preparing for Commercial Driver-Out Operations

27:48 A Focus on Profitability

34:45 Terminal Operations

40:43 Autonomous Trucking Grocery Store Day

46:00 Aviation History

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Vinay Shet, Co-Founder & CEO Teleo joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss Teleo’s approach to supervised autonomy in a labor light economy.

The conversation begins with Vinay discussing how Teleo is approaching supervised autonomy and it’s benefits.

By switching between tele-operations and autonomy and switching between machine one, machine two and even machine three, [operators] are able to control multiple machines at the same time. – Vinay Shet

Teleo’s approach to autonomy allows trained machine operators to increase their daily production while improving the overall operational efficiency of the job. This approach to autonomy developed to create value for construction companies that are facing a growing labor shortage. 

Labor is the number one problem that our customers flag to us for themselves. They are simply unable to find enough people to do the work that they have signed up to do. Across the board they have more work to do then they have people available. To the point where our customers tell us that they literary park their machines, because they are unable to find people to operate the machines. – Vinay Shet

Facing a growing labor shortage, Tomahawk Construction is deploying Teleo-enabled semi-autonomous trucks to move dirt at a residential community job site in Naples, Florida. This repetitive task is now automated, enabling Tomahawk to develop the residential community with great efficiency. As the community development scales, Teleo-enabled semi-autonomous trucks at the job site will eventually scale up to twelve trucks.

To scale the business, Teleo is utilizing a dealer network to sell their retrofit kits and have them installed on large machines. As the labor shortage grows and the Bank of America coined labor-light economy begins to take shape, Teleo is poised to prosper as their technology can help to fill the labor gap. 

Autonomy augments people. I think it’s really about making people more productive and making their lives more comfortable. – Vinay Shet

Wrapping up the conversation, Vinay shares his vision for the future of autonomy. 

Recorded on Friday, October 13, 2023

Chapters:

0:00 The Road to Autonomy Index

0:56 Introduction

1:22 Teleo's Approach to Autonomy

4:06 Remote Operations

7:17 Construction Industry Use Cases

11:02 Labor Light Economy

13:22 Teleo Business Model

18:34 How Teleo's Construction and Mining Compliment Each Other

20:40 Multi-Site Deployment

24:48 Future of Teleo

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Gabe Sganga, Head of Commercial Growth, RRAI joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss RRAI’s focus on autonomy for military and defense applications and how they have been able to apply the learnings from battle to their civilian business.

The conversation begins with Gabe discussing why RRAI is focused on autonomy for military and defense applications.

RRAI has always been a defense-first company. Strategically we are focused on delivering defense capabilities to support funded programs right now. – Gabe Sganga

RRAI’s autonomous vehicles have been deployed in theater around the world. When deploying autonomous vehicles in theater, the autonomous driving stack is hardened for the harsh environment of war. Through their deployments in theater, RRAI has been able to apply the learnings from battle to their civilian business. 

Operating in these conditions is not unique to defense, it’s unique to end-users who tackle the hardest jobs that keep the industrial heart of our country and economy running. – Gabe Sganga

Defense is a large part of RRAI’s business, but it is not the sole focus of the business. In addition to their defense business, RRAI has a growing commercial business with a keen focus on off-road autonomy applications. The company chose to focus on this commercial market as they viewed it as being underserved. 

The business model that RRAI operates under is autonomy-as-a-service. 

For autonomy-as-a-service, we wrap everything into a single license price.– Gabe Sganga

This model allows RRAI to update their fleet when new hardware and technology comes online and deploy it to their customers applications without having to charge them an upgrade fee. The model will only be enhanced when RRAI is able to secure a OEM deal for factory grade trucks built with their hardware and software fully integrated. 

For on-road applications, RRAI is focused on controlled environments such as distribution center yards, ports and logistics centers because of the regulatory environment. 

Wrapping up the conversation, Gabe discuses RRAI’s $220 million Series A round led by Softbank in January 2023.

Recorded on Friday, October 6, 2023

Chapters:

0:00 The Road to Autonomy Index

0:56 Introduction

1:23 Why Autonomy for Defense

6:10 Learnings from Autonomy Deployments in Defense Applications

13:54 Economics of RRAI's Defense Business

21:04 RRAI's Military Background

25:00 RRAI's Autonomous as a Service Business Model

30:27 RRAI's OEM Approach

37:28 RRAI On-Road Autonomy

39:00 Yard Trucks

43:58 RRAI Investors

45:30 Future of RRAI

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Paul McGlone, CEO, Seeing Machines joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss scaling Seeing Machines in-cabin sensing technology. 

The conversation begins with Paul discussing how Seeing Machines in-cabin sensing technology adapts to meet consumer and regulatory demand.

The primary driver of demand is regulatory. – Paul McGlone

Today, the in-cabin sensing technology senses the human condition which can be composed of body jesters, head position, eyelid movement and direct gaze (pupil tracking) and soon lip movement. By monitoring the cabin, Seeing Machines can detect distraction, fatigue, passenger occupancy and if someone is holding a phone while driving. 

As the technology evolves there is the potential to add health monitoring systems into the vehicle that can potentially detect when a driver or passenger is experiencing a heart attack or medical condition. Setting the stage for autonomous vehicles to scale and handle adverse in-vehicle situations. 

The core target market for our technology is Levels 2 – 4, but certainly as the companies that are managing fully autonomous, say 3rd party vehicle fleets will need someway to detect the well-being of the occupants, particularly if they are paying for the service. – Paul McGlone

In Fiscal Year 2023, Seeing Machines generated $13.6 million in annual recurring revenue, up 27% over Fiscal Year 2022. This revenue was generated from the company’s commercial fleet business (after-market) where the Seeing Machines devices are installed into vehicles. One of the big drivers of the revenue growth was fleet managers looking to reduce driver fatigue and distraction because of rising insurance costs.

Fatigue and distraction are the two primary drivers of insurance claims costs in commercial vehicle fleets worldwide. – Paul McGlone

For their automotive business, Seeing Machines has 15 programs with 10 OEMs and over 1 million cars globally have a Seeing Machines system installed. Their automotive business model is a royalty based model where the company is paid a royalty for every car that is manufactured for the life of the model that features their technology. The model has generated $320 million in royalties to date.

As we consider our business going forward, we are not only going to see significant growth rates, but we are going to see a mix change in revenue from sort of engineering services, low-margin to primarily royalties which are very very high-margin. – Paul McGlone

Outside of automotive, Seeing Machines is expanding into aviation through a partnership with Collins Aerospace. One the areas of focus is a monitoring system for air traffic control to monitor distraction and fatigue.

We think that almost every industrial opportunity that has a human-machine interface is an opportunity for accurate eye-tracking to improve either a safety or performance outcome. – Paul McGlone

Wrapping up the conversation, Paul shares his opinion on the future of in-cabin monitoring. 

Recorded on Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Chapters:

0:00 The Road to Autonomy Index

0:56 Introduction

1:17 The Evolution of Seeing Machines Technology

6:01 In-Cabin Sensing System

13:16 Seeing Machines Commercial Vehicle Revenue Growth

17:57 Seeing Machines Royalty Revenue

19:34 Magna Partnership

27:37 Collins Aerospace Partnership

35:48 Growing Royalty Revenue

41:00 Privacy

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

David Welch, Detroit Bureau Chief, Bloomberg joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the UAW strike and the launch of Stack AV. 

The conversation begins with David sharing the latest on the UAW (United Auto Workers) strikes against the Big 3 (Ford, GM and Stellantis). UAW President Shawn Fain has taken a different approach to the negotiations from his predecessors as a way to build trust and loyalty with his members. 

Shawn Fain has to show that he is not another management crony, he is a real union guy. Hence no handshake. – David Welch

Another reason why Sean Fain is taking such an aggressive approach towards the negotiations is that he has to build trust with his membership and show union leadership. The tactics that Sean Fain is implementing is right out of the Bernie Sanders playbook. Several members of Senator Sanders presidential campaigns are now advising the UAW on media strategy. 

[Sean Fain] wants to reignite a labor movement in America. – David Welch

One of the main sticking points in the strike is jobs and worker pay. The longer the strike drags on, the more it benefits Tesla. It has even been reported that no matter what happens, Tesla comes out the winner from the strikes as the Big 3 will be forced to raise prices of their electric vehicles. 

Tesla forced GM, Ford and Stellantis forced to build electric vehicles after they validated the market and gained signifiant marketshare. Tesla clearly showed that there was a market for electric vehicles. Could Tesla do the same thing with autonomy in the future? 

If and when Tesla licenses their FSD (Full Self-Driving) technology, will Cruise and Waymo be compelled to license their self-driving technology to appease investors? 

Waymo, definitely because they are not a car company. – David Welch

For GM, will they make the same mistake they did with OnStar years ago and not license it? Only time will tell. If GM eventually spins out Cruise, the path for licensing the Cruise self-driving technology becomes a lot more visible. On the autonomous trucking side of autonomy, Kodiak is planning to license the Kodiak Driver to fleets. 

Investors are watching the sector as the technology evolves and the business models are formalized. Softbank recently invested in Stack AV founded by Bryan Salesky, Peter Rander, and Brett Browning (Argo AI founders). Stack AV is going to focus on long-haul autonomous trucks, but are they entering the market too late? 

I do not think it’s too late, but they have to move if they want to catch up. – David Welch

Could Softbank look to potentially export Stack AV to Japan to capture marketshare in an emerging market that is not yet saturated with competition? 

Wrapping up the conversation, David shares his thoughts on what to watch in autonomy for the end of the year.

Chapters:

0:00 The Road to Autonomy Index

0:56 Introduction

1:13 UAW Strikes

16:21 Tesla Beneficial Winner of the UAW Strikes?

21:20 Licensing Tesla FSD and Autonomous Driving Systems

30:00 Softbank and Stack AV

41:40 Autonomy Outlook for the End of the Year

Recorded on Thursday, September 21, 2023

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Katelyn Foley, President, UP.Labs joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss why companies should think differently and think like a software company.

The conversation begins with Katelyn sharing her thoughts on the current state of the mobility markets. 

To me it’s a story about product pivots. There has been incredible movement to EVs and ultimately to autonomous vehicles. – Katelyn Foley

For traditional OEMs to capture marketshare, they need a relentless focus on developing user-friendly digital interfaces that consumers will want to use on a daily basis. As daunting as this might sound, UP.Labs is ushering in this model with partner, Porsche. 

Part of what we are doing is to help them think differently. To think like a software company. – Katelyn Foley

Porsche and UP.Labs came together to create six new companies by 2025 that could eventually be acquired by Porsche. Collectively they are looking at opportunities that can enhance the Porsche owner experience through data, efficiency and a robust digital interface. 

As UP.Labs and Porsche explore opportunities for new businesses, they are respecting the heritage of the brand and embracing it’s status as a luxury brand. This strategy allows Porsche to lean in, embrace innovation and think differently about their business. 

Being a luxury brand comes with responsibilities. With the shift to electric vehicles, consumers are beginning to ask questions about the provenance of the materials in the battery and the leather on the seats. Consumers want to know that these materials were cultivated in a way that did not have an impact on the environment. 

Overall, luxury brands should approach electrification by taking the bespoke route and creating a new vehicle that is built from the ground up to be electric. Porsche embraced their heritage of speed and handling by creating the Taycan, which has dazzled consumers. 

Every brand has to think about what they stand for. What are those few core principles, and the EV really needs to embody those and not just be an EV. – Katelyn Foley

Wrapping up the conversation, Grayson and Katelyn discuss network optimization. 

Recorded on Tuesday, September 19, 2023

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Gil West, Chief Operating Officer, Cruise joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss how Cruise is scaling operations across the world. 

The conversation begins with Gil discussing GM’s revenue target for Cruise of $1 billion in revenue by 2025.

We are on target. – Gil West

Cruise is on target to hit their revenue goal because they are scaling. Currently Cruise has operations in 15 cities in 10 states. As Cruise scales, they are creating a flywheel effect that continuously improves their operations. 

We are creating a flywheel effect as we go to market and scale. – Gil West

The Cruise experience from city to city is consistent from a rider perspective. Behind this consistency is an operational playbook that is deployed in each new city that Cruise expands service. One of the key elements of this playbook is partnerships. When Cruise enters a new city, the company is focused on leveraging underutilized assets to ensure the most cost efficient operations. 

In San Francisco, Cruise is installing chargers at Oracle Park (Home of the San Francisco Giants) that the company will use when a baseball game is not taking place. When a game is taking place, fans will be able to use the chargers. 

When it comes to potential expansion cities, Cruise looks at the ODD (operation design domain) that fits the technologies capabilities, commercial opportunity in the market, market density, the availability of infrastructure and the regulatory environment. 

Our goal is to bring driverless tech to as many people as possible in many places as we can. – Gil West

As we have seen in San Francisco and Phoenix, overtime Cruise will expand their service area in new cities to eventually cover the entire city. As Cruise expands the amount of ride supply in a city, they are conscious about passenger pick-up wait times. 

Our goal here of course is to provide a consistently better experience and more accessibility at an affordable price point, and have people be able access the vehicles in a very timely manner. – Gil West

The experience that Cruise provides in the future is only going to be enhanced when the service becomes integrated into stadiums, concert venues and airports. No more waiting in line trying to catch an Uber or finding your driver. With autonomy and integrations, these headaches will become a thing of the past. 

As part of their vision for autonomy, Cruise designed and built the Cruise Origin in partnership with GM. The Origin is currently testing on public roads in San Francisco and Austin as the company prepares to deploy the vehicle for commercial operations pending NHTSA approval. 

We will be introducing the Origin commercially soon and then in multiple cities. – Gil West

Wrapping up the conversation, Gil shares his opinion on the future of Cruise which includes new vehicle form factors.

Chapters:

0:00 The Road to Autonomy Index

0:55 Introduction

1:17 Cruise $1 Billion 2025 Revenue Target Reaffirmed

2:45 Scaling Cruise and Maintaining the Experience

9:13 Expansion into New Cities

22:41 Pick-up Times

24:37 Future Cruise Experiences

29:54 Cruise Origin

35:53 Operating a Profitable Business

39:22 Future of Cruise

Recorded on Tuesday, September 12, 2023

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

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