tim ryan

As the Supreme Court debates whether to end affirmative action, concerns about the power of implicit racial bias to shape who gets ahead in America are as salient as ever. But what do we know about the extent and power of this racism to drive voting decisions? Is there a scientific way to measure it?

In a new paper “Disfavor or Favor? Assessing the Valence of White Americans’ Racial Attitudes” political scientist Tim Ryan provides a new framework for how perceived racial attitudes line up with voting. It takes on the faults of our existing racial bias literature and provides striking evidence about how to characterize white American’s racial attitudes. 

Ryan is a professor at The University of North Caroline at Chapel Hill. You can find the paper at this link: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3701331 

"Win, lose or draw, the allure of the “white working class voter” never dulls for big D Democrats."

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“Change The Conversation”

1. Missouri Gun Laws - T/F: Are gun manufacturers about to get the tobacco treatment? (10 -12 min)
   1. STL Post Dist article: https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/missouri-republicans-likely-to-block-any-push-for-red-flag-gun-laws/article_264ab532-fe40-5699-8c5c-f90de0a3a218.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_stltoday
   2. Mayor Jones in STL talks school safety: https://www.ksdk.com/video/news/local/st-louis-mayor-tishaura-jones-talks-student-safety-and-gun-laws-after-cvpa-shooting/63-792b2859-31fc-4078-9f9b-b288094a570f

1. Yeah… NO - There was a MIchael Flynn lead White Christian Nationalism summit in Branson (5-8 min)
   1. The “Reawaken America” tour: https://mypatriotmarketplace.com/events/reawaken-america-tour-with-clay-clark-and-general-michael-flynn-at-the-rock-church-virginia-beach-va-3/
   2. I thought being woke was bad?
   3. MO Independent article: https://missouriindependent.com/2022/11/04/missouri-leaders-should-condemn-this-weekends-christian-nationalist-rally-in-branson/
2. Final MIDTERM DECISION DESK CHECK IN FOR 2022 MIDTERMS
   1. Five thirty eight updated shows GOP with edge to win Senate as of Friday Nov 4th at 2pm central
      1. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo
      2. 
          
   2. Each of us with picks
      1. Your “LOCK” race 
         1. Adam: Mark Kelly, Sean: Ron Johnson, Rachel: Meghan Green (STL)
      2. Your underdog you like to win
         1. Adam: Warnock, Sean: Cortez Masto, Rachel: Tim Ryan
      3. Biggest surprise outcome
         1. Adam: Cindy Axne (Iowa 3rd), Sean: Fetterman wins early and big, Rachel: Kari Lake wins in Arizona (Gov)
      4. Who takes HOUSE majority?
         1. Adam: GOP, Sean: GOP, Rachel: GOP
      5. Who takes SENATE majority?
         1. Adam: Dems, Sean: Dems, Rachel: Dems
      6. Will MO Dems win enough seats statewide to break GOP super majority? - MAP https://www.mohousedems.com/
      7. Awesome article by Galen Bacharier https://www.news-leader.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/05/17/missouri-statehouse-races-2022-election-candidates-maps/9614683002/
   3. 
      
      1. Parson didn’t fill spots, could have had super maj in 2022

LAST CALL: HOLY SHIT, DOING A POLITICAL PODCAST IN CYCLE - WHAT WE LEARNED

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Outro Song: “The World Is On Fire” by American Aquarium 

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EPISODE 58: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN

A-Block (1:45) The vague and underwhelming Bloomberg report about how prosecutors "believe there is sufficient evidence to charge Trump" was surprisingly specific about one thing: the timeline is developing in such a way that a Trump indictment for Obstruction of Justice and other crimes would not happen before the week of January 2 (or, as a longshot, the week of December 26) 3:44 Bloomberg also gives away its source: the FBI agents in "the team that's part of the classified records probe." (5:00) There is an unclear claim that DOJ would not indict ONLY on Obstruction. Does that mean they DO intend to file other charges, or that if they don't file others, they won't file ANYTHING? (6:50) DOJ may also be trying to time any announcement to fit appropriately with Trump's other legal vulnerabilities, like the Eastman Coup Georgia lying-in-a-sworn-statement case that just grew in seriousness yesterday (7:26) But probably not the E. Jean Carroll rape lawsuits for which Trump was deposed yesterday (8:00) Finally I take a wild guess at the EXACT date of any Trump indictment - at least the most appropriate date for it.

B-Block (12:37) EVERY DOG HAS ITS DAY: Griffin, in California (13:36) POSTSCRIPTS TO THE NEWS: The voice of the Ohio voter is heard loud and clear: "F You, Fascist!" So why aren't Dem bigwigs funding Tim Ryan? And push comes to shove in the slowly-expiring British cabinet. No: Literally. Pushing and shoving in parliament. (17:31) IN SPORTS: You may think pitching decides baseball's post-seasons, but those with more homers won both games yesterday - and 101 of the last 120. And a Christmas Album allows me to confirm the ancient story of Philadelphia fans booing Santa Claus, plus New York fans throwing snowballs at Tiny Tim's tulips (21:11) THE WORST PERSONS IN THE WORLD: Sean Hannity tells us way too much of how his dad used to beat him with a belt. He and Jim Jordan compete with Kimberly Guilfoyle actually making a joke about Nancy Pelosi and plastic surgery. Can we start a GoFundMe to get Kim a mirror?

C-Block (27:00) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: With Netflix's profits in the news, the story of the day I met with them to propose not just a streaming political show, but how they could own ALL of the TV News field in the post-cable future and all they could think about was...the necessity of putting on Italian subtitles.

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EPISODE 56: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN

A-Block (1:45) SPECIAL COMMENT: The old sports phrase is "No Pain, No Gain." The political corollary is: "No Pain, No Gain - But No Brain, No Pain." This is proved by Herschel Walker's latest lie about the abortion he paid for (3:00) To say nothing of similar amazingly stupid deceit from Ron Johnson, Mike Lee, Donald Trump, Kanye West, and Elon Musk (5:53) And yet the World Championship may be held by the new U.K. government. Only on Day 41 and already a lame duck, Prime Minister Liz Truss doesn't show up to face the House of Commons and when someone jokes she's hiding under a desk, Truss's stand-in answers seriously "I can assure the house she is not under a desk." It's the longest sustained laughter I've ever heard a group of politicians express at another's expense, and it proves another theory that has been festering in me for decades (9:30) Namely: There are no adults.

B-Block (13:21) EVERY DOG HAS ITS DAY: Jeezy, in Los Angeles (14:15) POSTSCRIPTS TO THE NEWS: In the Senate debates, Utah's Mike Lee is caught seditioning and Ohio's J.D. Vance is caught lying, denying he ever claimed Alex Jones was a more credible source of information than Maddow (17:13) IN SPORTS: Baseball's jinxed post-season continues: they wait two-and-a-half hours to rain out the Yankees and Guardians when it never really rained. Plus the format is a disaster: the National League World Series team will have either the 10th or 11th worst record in the sport. And more taxpayers get scammed for a new stadium, this time in Nashville. I'll repeat the simple explanation proving all the 'benefits' of new sports facilities are non-existent folderol. (22:20) THE WORST PERSONS IN THE WORLD: Liz Truss's Health Secretary vies with Trump's balls and Oz drinking his own urine (yeah, they "made" you) for the honors.

C-Block (26:00) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: It was 48 years ago this month that I was at Boston University, aged 15, destined for an internship with the Boston Celtics, and to my shock I was offered a full merit scholarship - a free ride. And then a stringy-haired disc jockey at the college radio station said the set-up was all wrong and I would be making a mistake if I went there. Impossibly, that gaunt, snarky kid of 20 was named Howard Stern.

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EPISODE 51: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN

A-Block (1:43) SPECIAL COMMENT: Putin is doubling down and we must act. We must avoid war, so we must DO everything else. We must at least explore dissolving the United Nations and re-forming it without Russia (3:05) More practically, Biden must reverse his September decision and declare Russia a State Sponsor of Terrorism - it's what the oligarchs fear most (4:27) And the need to do SOMETHING is not just about Russia. It's about Russia's propagandists here - paid or not - like Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson, CPAC, and Michael Flynn. We have to make it career-ending to supply the Kremlin with anti-Ukraine sound bites.

B-Block (15:09) EVERY DOG HAS ITS DAY: Al, in Miami (16:25) POSTSCRIPTS TO THE NEWS: The lone Ohio Senate Debate is a TKO for Tim Ryan over J.D. Vance, or, if you prefer, "Hillbilly Eulogy"; Maggie Haberman battered by BBC; LA Council resignations not enough. (20:15) IN SPORTS: Baseball lifer gets the big gig in Philly; the five-year plan in Carolina turns into a five-week plan; Tommy Tuberville blowback hits sports (22:23) THE WORST PERSONS IN THE WORLD: Candace Owens, Owen Shroyer, and Jason Whitlock defend Kanye West and antisemitism, and compete with Lauren Boebert and the Secretary of the Army for the crown.

C-Block (27:08) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: Five different baseball franchises have tried to get me fired - at ESPN, at KTLA, at Fox Sports. Only one has kinda sorta succeeded. The remarkable story from ten years ago: when MLB Network offered me a show, and then reneged when threatened by the Yankees.

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Heartland POD on Twitter - @TheHeartlandPOD

Co-Hosts
Adam Sommer @Adam_Sommer85

Rachel Parker @RaichetP

Sean Diller @SeanDillerCO

1. Adam's Open

2. True or False: The GOP has caught the Tiger by the tail and the Tiger is pissed

1. Abortion - Parson clip https://twitter.com/MarkMaxwellTV/status/1547631874033401856?s=20&t=ZfzrmrQ1Lwo1WbJNZ39bvA

2. Sienna poll - abortion should be legal and SCOTUS is broken

1. https://scri.siena.edu/

3. Gerontocracy: Young voters are tired of Grandpa’s rules https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/us/politics/youth-voters-midterms-polling.html

1. Yeah…No… Tim Ryan is trying to beat JD Vance at being JD Vance?

1. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/democrat-tim-ryan-chases-fox-news-viewers-ohio-senate-race-rcna37558

2. Have to appeal to wider audience to win, but what’s the cost?

3. 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/ohio/

1. 2022 Midterms Decision Desk Check In - HOUSE edition

1. https://twitter.com/polltrackerusa/status/1548022265203134465?s=21&t=vjeWVCgckKIfaNFg6cyVIg

1. Looks like generic ballot is close

2. Missouri - The 2nd is competitive - great folks running in the 6th, 7th, & 8th - 4th has been left on the vine this year

3. Trish’s farewell speech of the MO House Floor was genuinely touching. https://twitter.com/TrishForMO/status/1548017035623288840

1. The reason we have term limits is because dark money groups do not want women like her building political careers in Missouri (she’s not termed out, but…)

4. Toss up races via cook political

1. https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings?check_logged_in=1

5. 538 House Forecast

1. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/?cid=rrpromo

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Twitter: @TheHeartlandPOD

"Change The Conversation"

@TheHeartlandPOD on Twitter and Threads

Co-Hosts
Adam Sommer @Adam_Sommer85  (Twitter) @adam_sommer85 (Post)

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“Change The Conversation”

Outro Song: “The World Is On Fire” by American Aquarium 

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Betsey attended a speech by Secretary Pete live and in person at the University of Chicago's Institute of Politics with David Axelrod. From the third row seated next to Lucy Lark's mom, she gives a first-person account of Pete Buttigieg's performance. Betsey makes the case for a presidential run. A leaked Supreme Court draft of the ruling to overturn Roe v. Wade dominates the headlines, reawakening the national firestorm of debate over abortion. JD Vance (author and former never-Trumper), with the former president's support, won the Republican nomination for Senator from Ohio and will run against the Democrat nominee, Tim Ryan.  Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow gave a powerful speech on the Michigan state senate floor, triggered by accusations by Senator Lana Theis.  Looks like Lucy Lark's parents are in the market for a mini-van. 

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Hey, y'all! We're hitting the primary season here in America, so we are diving back into our Preview 2022 series to learn who is running. And who is running in Ohio for Senate? Oh, just a pack of god damn ghouls.

Special thanks to adjunct professor Nicki Mazzocca for her segment detailing why the book Hillbilly Elegy is pure garbage.

Soon-to-be-Grandma Carla talks about the impact that newly audible heartbeat. Ken shares his PICK ONE decision and 2022 plan. Val Demings, Michael Garcia and Tim Ryan get honorable mention in the context of the high stakes of the coming mid-term elections. The Southern Baptist Convention wraps up this week with a high profile in the national news - largely representative of the white evangelical influence on public policy. CRT (race) and sexual abuse are on the ballot. Carla comments on the founding of the SBC in 1844-45, quoting long time friend, historian Mark Noll. To our surprise, this week, the SBC conference elected a "moderate," Rev. Ed Litton. A seminary professor challenges Ken to be "disruptive." President Joe Biden visits the Queen at the Windsor Palace and European leaders for the G7 gathering. Carla leaves us with a visit to her "happy place" ... a lovely local garden where she finds restoration and a neighbor who reminds her of the goodness of the American people. Ken recites from Rudyard Kipling.

Big announcement from Carla! This Beach Talk gets personal. Ken and Carla pull up a chair on the beach to talk about life's wonderful surprises - surprises that motivate us to work toward a better world. They agree - Reveal Parties are risky business. Carla introduces her commitment to the PICK ONE plan - and she shares her picks:  Tim Ryan preparing for his Senate race in Ohio. Ryan is known for his powerful reprimand on the house floor of Republican naysayers. Florida's Congresswoman Val Demings, former Police Chief of Orlando also gets high marks from Carla for her 2022 challenge of Marco Rubio. California's Congressman Mike Garcia should be defeated in 2022. Secretary Pete is the subject of a major article in THE ATLANTIC that expounds on his work on the infrastructure plan and his aspiration for the years ahead. Joe Manchin seems to be enjoying the spotlight as a roadblock; Ken and Carla explore the politics of West Virginia that push the Senator toward resolute inaction. They kick around the impact of the filibuster and the absence of bi-partisanship for decades in Washington. They close with a review of the KENNEDY CENTER HONORS: Joan Baez, Dick VanDyke, Debbie Allen (iconic choreographer), Midori (virtuoso violinist), and Garth Brooks.

Modobag is the world’s first motorized, smart and connected carry-on that gets you to your destination up to three times faster than walking. CMO Tim Ryan offers insight into one of the most innovative and exciting advancements to hit the travel industry since rolling suitcases were introduced in the 1970's, on location at CES 2020.

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