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    30 days, 3 pressure points - with Haviv Rettig Gur

    enNovember 06, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Selective attention and international pressure in conflictsMoral concern for civilian lives isn't the only factor influencing global responses to conflicts. Selective attention and lack of international pressure in some cases, as well as time pressures, add complexity to the situation.

      The world's response to conflicts and crises, such as the one in Mosul or the ongoing conflict in Gaza, is not solely based on moral concern for civilian lives but influenced by other dynamics. The discussion highlighted the selective attention paid to certain conflicts and the lack of international pressure in some cases, while Israel's actions faced intense scrutiny. At the same time, in Israel, the end of the mourning period (shloshim) for the victims of the October 7th attack coincides with ongoing military operations and economic challenges. These time pressures add to the complexity of the situation and underscore the need for understanding the intricacies of these conflicts and the motivations behind global responses.

    • Israelis being called back for reserve duty despite aging outDespite the reserve duty ending at age 40, many Israelis are being called back due to current security situations, disrupting their lives and requiring them to help with security measures.

      Even though the reserve duty in Israel is supposed to end at age 40, many individuals, including those who have aged out, are being called back due to current security situations. This disruption to their lives is comparable to the 30-day mourning period in Judaism, marking a transition back into normalcy after a significant event. Aviv Reitigur, a political analyst at The Times of Israel and a former combat medic, shared his personal experience of being called back for reserve duty despite aging out, and how the population is forming neighborhood watches and being drafted into reserve duty to help with security measures. This shows the ongoing impact of security situations on individuals and their lives in Israel.

    • Moving forward during shloshim, but uncertainty for families of hostagesThe shloshim period provides a time for reflection and healing, but for families of hostages, the uncertainty of their loved ones' fate continues to cause daily trauma and pain.

      During the shloshim period in Jewish tradition, which marks the end of mourning for a deceased person, Israelis are transitioning from the initial shock of loss to finding ways to move forward. This period, which lasts 30 days, includes a visit to the grave to say goodbye and begins the process of introspection and preparation for the future. However, for families of the over 200 hostages taken during the recent conflict, there is no such transition, as they continue to face the daily trauma and uncertainty of not knowing the fate of their loved ones. The war in Gaza and the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah add to the collective pain and trauma for the country. Despite this, there is a determination to return to some semblance of routine, as seen in businesses and schools reopening. The shloshim period serves as a time for reflection and moving forward, but for some, the road to healing is long and uncertain.

    • Complex situation in Gaza with families searching for missing loved ones and children sufferingThe ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas continues to impact families, children, Israel's economy, and diplomatic relations, with no clear end in sight

      The situation in Gaza remains complex and emotionally charged, with families still searching for missing loved ones and children continuing to suffer. Israel's military objectives against Hamas in Gaza are ongoing, with the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) making progress but facing significant challenges, such as Hamas's extensive tunnel network and stockpiles of fuel. Economically, the conflict has had a significant impact on Israel's tourism industry and tech exports, with an estimated 360,000 people called up for military service. Diplomatically, international pressure on Israel continues to mount, raising questions about the time and space Israel has to achieve its objectives. Overall, the situation in Gaza is far from resolved, and the human toll continues to be significant.

    • Neutralizing Hamas' tunnel threat in GazaThe military operation in Gaza is making progress in neutralizing Hamas' tunnel threat, boosting morale among soldiers and uniting the Israeli community behind the troops.

      The ongoing military operation in Gaza is making significant progress in neutralizing Hamas' tunnel threat, allowing for the reshaping of the battlefield and reducing Israeli losses. The army has implemented new solutions, such as special roof attachments for tanks and APCs against drone attacks. Morale among soldiers is exceptionally high, with a newfound unity among Israeli soldiers of all backgrounds. The solidarity and camaraderie among soldiers, which is often not apparent to outsiders, have been on full display during the operation. The nation as a whole is rallying behind the troops, with communities opening their doors and kitchens to support the soldiers. This sense of shared fate and brotherhood is a powerful and astonishing experience that highlights the unique sense of community in Israel.

    • Israel's unity and purpose as a nationIsrael's determination to achieve a decisive victory against Hamas, despite international pressure and uncertainty, is driven by the strong desire of its public.

      Israel's sense of purpose and unity as a nation is a major reason why it is not experiencing the social decline and sense of doom that other wealthy democracies are. This was emphasized during the discussion about the ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza. The Israeli military is working to deny Hamas access to basic necessities and reshape the battlefield, but the enemy's ability to surprise and shape the schedule makes the outcome uncertain. The Israeli public's desire for a decisive victory against Hamas is strong, and the international pressure and discourse against Israel may be heard by its leaders, but the Israeli public's voice is louder. The Israeli army's determination to shorten the war and achieve a shattering of Hamas will depend on the outcome of the conflict.

    • Israeli conflict disrupts economy and civilian lifeThe Israeli conflict is causing significant financial and societal disruptions, with the government reallocating resources to address the needs of affected communities and interest groups losing coalition funds.

      The ongoing conflict in Israel is having a significant impact on the economy and civilian life, with a large percentage of the labor force called up for military service. This situation is not only expensive due to the cost of the war itself, but also due to the housing and support for evacuees. The economy can afford the financial burden due to its strong fundamentals, but the political landscape is shifting as resources are reallocated to address the needs of affected communities. The ultra-Orthodox community and other interest groups are losing coalition funds as the government prioritizes spending on victims and evacuees. Overall, the conflict is causing a major disruption to daily life and the economy, with long-term implications for Israeli society.

    • Israel's Government Faces Financial Pressure and International CriticismIsrael's government is under pressure to cut costs and end conflict with Hamas, while the US faces pressure from its progressive base to take stronger action against Israel, causing moral discourse and potential political consequences.

      Israel's current government is facing financial pressures, leading three Knesset members to propose shutting down unnecessary ministries. Simultaneously, international pressure on Israel to end its conflict with Hamas is mounting, particularly from the United States, where the progressive wing of the Democratic Party is pushing for stronger action against Israel. The international community is responding to civilian casualties in Gaza, and while the legalities of the conflict are debated, there is a widespread belief that action must be taken to alleviate the suffering. Israel's war aim is considered legitimate under international law, but the moral discourse surrounding it is a significant concern for the Biden administration, which is feeling pressure from its progressive base. The potential impact of the Arab American community on the next US election is overstated, but the administration is facing significant noise from this vocal segment of its base.

    • US-Israel relationship in 2024 electionsThe US-Israel relationship is complex, with the Biden admin balancing pressure on Israel with opposition to Hamas, using military support as incentive for lower civilian casualties, and recognizing Israel's need to address Hamas without significant US interference.

      The current tensions between the US and Israel over the conflict in Gaza may not significantly impact the US-Israel relationship in the 2024 elections. The Biden administration's stance towards Israel is complex, with a desire to pressure Israel on certain issues while also wanting Hamas, a group backed by Iran, out of the picture. The US is using carrots, such as military support, to incentivize Israel to lower civilian casualties. The influence of the US on Israel goes beyond financial aid, and the current window of opportunity for Israel to deal with Hamas without significant US pressure may not last long. The US-Israel relationship is multifaceted and has evolved over time, with shifts in public opinion and geopolitical realities playing a role. The current situation in Gaza is just one piece of a larger puzzle.

    • Selective moral concern for civilian lives in conflictsInternational community's response to civilian casualties varies depending on the perpetrator, with Israel facing significant scrutiny while conflicts in other regions receive minimal attention.

      The international community's response to conflicts and civilian casualties depends on who is doing the killing. The discussion highlighted the selective moral concern for civilian lives, with Israel facing significant international scrutiny while conflicts in other regions, such as Syria and Yemen, receive minimal attention. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict in Gaza has once again brought this issue to the forefront, with the international window for intervention appearing to be closing. The hostage situation in Gaza is a complex issue, with Hamas using it as a psychological lever but lacking trust from the Israeli public. Despite Israeli leaders' declarations of prioritizing the hostages, they are unwilling to let Hamas dictate the terms of the conflict. The situation remains uncertain, with potential consequences for both sides when the international window closes.

    • Negotiations at the Israel-Gaza border involve hostage exchangesIsrael is wary of hostage deals with Hamas due to past experiences, while Hezbollah's words are seen as empty threats, leading Israel to prepare for potential assaults

      The situation at the border between Israel and Gaza is complex and tense, with both sides making threats and engaging in military actions. The discussion highlights the use of hostages as a tactic in negotiations, with Hamas exchanging humanitarian pauses for the release of hostages. Israel, however, is hesitant to trust such arrangements due to past experiences. Regarding Hezbollah, the Israeli public was not relieved by Hassan Nasrallah's speech, as they have learned that if Hezbollah can attack, they will. Instead, the Israeli military ramps up preparations for a potential assault. Nasrallah's speech was perceived as all talk and no action, and Israel sees both Hezbollah and Hamas as dangerous adversaries who are not detachable. The Israeli determination to fight and not play psychological games sets them apart from their adversaries.

    • Mansour Abbas, Arab Muslim leader, joins Israeli government, raises concerns about extremist views in his partyMansour Abbas, an Arab Muslim leader, made history by joining the Israeli government, but his party's peaceful approach coexists with potential extremist views, highlighted by a member spreading Hamas propaganda.

      Mansour Abbas, the leader of the Ra'am party in Israel, which is an Arab Muslim Arab party, broke the historical trend of Arab parties not joining Israeli governments and joined the Bennett Lapid government, gaining more seats in the Knesset as a result. However, recent news has emerged about a member of his party, Iman Khatib Yacine, spreading Hamas propaganda by denying the evidence of atrocities committed by Hamas. This incident highlights the complexity of Abbas's position as an Islamist leader seeking Islamic renewal and politics, while advocating for peace and denouncing violence and Holocaust denial. Despite his peaceful approach, the incident raises concerns about the potential influence of extremist views within his party. This moment underscores the nuanced dynamics of the Bedouin community's role in Israeli society and the challenges of balancing religious and political ideologies in a Jewish state.

    • Religious leader Mansour Abbas' commitment to Jewish-Arab coexistenceMansour Abbas, a religious leader in Israel, has consistently advocated for peace and unity between Jews and Arabs, expelling extremist members from his party and distancing himself from violent groups, despite political costs.

      Mansour Abbas, the religious leader of the United Arab List in Israel, has shown remarkable moderation and commitment to coexistence between Jews and Arabs amidst the volatile political climate in the region. Despite ideological overlaps with groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, Abbas has distanced himself from extremist views and violence, believing in a divinely ordained future where Jews and Arabs will live together. During times of conflict and political upheaval, Abbas has consistently advocated for peace and unity, even when faced with offensive and divisive comments from Israeli politicians. He has taken a firm stance against extremism within his own party, expelling members who make inflammatory statements. Abbas' unwavering commitment to coexistence, despite political costs, is a testament to his leadership and a beacon of hope for those seeking peaceful solutions in the Middle East.

    • Arab unity and solidarity in Israel during conflictsArab Israelis show unity and solidarity during conflicts, with Mansour Abbas leading the charge for integration into Israeli society, offering hope for a more peaceful future between Jewish and Arab worlds.

      The unity and solidarity among Arabs in Israel during times of conflict goes beyond mere anecdotes and has become a powerful thread in Arab Israeli politics. Mansour Abbas, the leader of the United Arab List, has stood firm in his stance of Israeli citizenship and has been met with support from his constituency, even in the face of disagreement. This desire for integration into Israeli society is a hopeful sign for the future of Israeli-Arab relations, and it offers a ray of light amidst the ongoing conflicts and tensions. The stories of Arabs saving lives during attacks and the Bedouin infantryman's desire to teach Hamas a lesson reflect a deep-rooted feeling among many Arabs in Israel. This unity and solidarity offer a glimmer of hope for a more integrated and peaceful future between Jewish and Arab worlds in Israel.

    • Finding meaning in unexpected placesStaying engaged with life and community, even during tough times, can provide perspective and joy.

      Even when feeling unmotivated or out of sorts, finding meaning and connection in unexpected places can provide perspective and wisdom. The speaker shares how his son's comment during a difficult time helped him see the importance of attending a football game, reminding him of the joy and community it brings. This experience underscores the value of staying engaged with life and the people around us, even when we may not feel up to it. Additionally, the speaker encourages listeners to follow him on social media and to order his book, "The Genius of Israel," for more insights and perspectives.

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    A lot is happening in the Middle East... and nothing at all - with Nadav Eyal

    A lot is happening in the Middle East... and nothing at all - with Nadav Eyal
    Share on Twitter: https://tinyurl.com/3wv3d77z As we try to make sense of the past two weeks, consider this: 1. IDF withdraws from most of the Gaza Strip while it now also appears increasingly likely that the IDF will conduct an operation in Rafah. 2. An historic Iranian attack of 300 ballistic missiles, UAVs and cruise missiles, and an historic coalition force that includes Israel, the US, UK, France, Saudi Arabia and Jordan that shot down almost all of the projectiles. 3. A week later, Israel attacks Iran. 4. A widely backed U.N. security council resolution recognizing a Palestinian state, which the US vetoed. So a lot is happening, but is Israel closer to achieving the war's objectives? To help us understand what’s going on, our guest today is NADAV EYAL, who returns to the podcast. He is a columnist for Yediot. Eyal has been covering Middle-Eastern and international politics for the last two decades for Israeli radio, print and television news.

    Can Israel save its hostages from Hamas?

    Can Israel save its hostages from Hamas?

    When Hamas attacked Israel just over two weeks ago, it took more than 200 hostages back to Gaza.

    As Israel continues to plan for a ground invasion of the Palestinian territory, the Islamist militant group has released a mother and daughter and two elderly women. 

    Today, Dani Gilbert, expert in hostage taking and recovery from Northwestern University in Illinois, on how their freedom was negotiated and whether more hostages can be saved.    

    Featured: 

    Danielle Gilbert, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Northwestern University