#401 - Rory Sutherland - The Psychology Of Transport, Google Maps & Bear Attacks

Learning from this conversation with Rory Sutherland is that as transportation becomes faster, it's essential to focus on making journeys more enjoyable for humans rather than just quicker. Behavioral scientists should consider factors like enjoyment, regret, and fairness, which are important to people but often overlooked in transportation planning. For instance, missing a train by a few minutes can cause significant annoyance and regret, and small inconveniences like long queues or lack of seatback tables on trains can lead to disproportionate frustration. The authors of the upcoming book "Transport for Humans Are We Nearly There Yet?" argue that transport planners should consider these human factors to create a better transportation experience. The discussion also touched on the importance of status, certainty, autonomy, relatedness, and fairness, which are key areas where transportation can improve the human experience. Overall, the conversation emphasized the importance of understanding human psychology in transportation planning to create a more enjoyable and effective travel experience.

While high-speed rail projects, like the one between Paris and London, can have significant economic investments, the focus on speed alone may overlook other important factors that can enhance the passenger experience. For instance, the Eurostar train journey between Paris and London, despite taking longer than flying, offers a productive and enjoyable experience due to its uninterrupted duration. The installation of Wi-Fi on the trains, which likely cost a fraction of the initial investment, can significantly improve the journey for business travelers. Furthermore, the correlation between punctuality and passenger happiness is not linear, and passengers may not be significantly affected if a train is a few minutes late. Instead, focusing on convenience and enjoyability can lead to better passenger satisfaction, especially as transportation becomes faster and the law of diminishing returns kicks in.

People generally prefer to keep moving at a slower pace than coming to a complete halt, even if it means a longer journey. This psychological discomfort of being stuck in traffic can be compared to a conga line of people trying to get home from work. The discussion also touched upon the impact of electric vehicles on driving psychology. Range anxiety can lead to smoother driving styles, and the regenerative braking system can make drivers less resentful towards others. The speaker shared his personal preference for American-made electric vehicles, like the Ford Mustang Mach E, over Tesla, and the fascinating shift in public perception of electric vehicles due to Elon Musk and Tesla's influence. The speaker also mentioned the benefits of adaptive cruise control on highways, reducing the braking wave effect and improving overall traffic flow.

The use of adaptive cruise control in a large number of cars on the highway can significantly improve traffic flow efficiency, even if not all drivers have or use this feature. Additionally, the behavior of Tesla drivers has been noticed to be less objectionable compared to some other car brands, and the ownership of electric vehicles, such as the Mustang Mach E, can lead to a more zen driving experience for some people. Furthermore, the adoption of electric vehicles may be encouraged by visible signals of eco-friendliness, like green number plates, but there is a possibility that some people may want to counter-signal this trend in the future. Overall, these findings highlight the potential benefits of technology and consumer behavior in promoting more efficient and eco-friendly transportation.

Consumer preferences for hybrid vehicles depend on societal norms and values. For instance, in democratic areas, people are more likely to buy the overtly labeled hybrid vehicles like the Prius. In contrast, in more conservative areas, individuals may opt for stealth hybrids to save on costs without broadcasting their eco-conscious choices to their neighbors or fellow motorists. Moreover, when it comes to reducing environmental impact, home improvements like installing heat pumps are crucial but lack the same bragging rights as driving a hybrid or electric vehicle. Heat pumps, which are 500% efficient, are an effective way to heat homes, but they don't carry the same social status as a hybrid or electric car. It's important to note that heat pumps work best in moderate temperature climates and can be particularly effective in places with vibrant nightlife scenes, where people can enjoy outdoor spaces during cooler evenings. Businesses, such as coffee shops and beer gardens, can capitalize on this trend by offering dual-purpose spaces that cater to different needs during the day and night. Overall, understanding consumer behavior and societal norms can help businesses and individuals make informed decisions about adopting eco-friendly technologies, whether it's in the form of a hybrid vehicle or a heat pump for the home.

Transport apps, such as Google Maps, prioritize speed and price over ease and beauty for users. The speaker expressed a desire for a more balanced approach, considering factors like the fewest number of turns, junctions, and the straightest roads (ease), as well as scenic routes (beauty). He also highlighted the lack of multimodality understanding in Google Maps, particularly in the UK context, where people often use a combination of driving and public transport. The speaker also shared his personal preference for taking a slower train to work, which allows him to work on the train and clear his email inbox, rather than dealing with the stress and crowds of the faster routes. He also pointed out that certain trains, which offer beautiful scenic routes, are often overlooked by transport apps due to their focus on speed. The speaker's insights underscore the importance of considering a more holistic approach to transport planning and app development, one that takes into account both practical considerations and the desire for a more enjoyable and scenic journey.

Hidden demand for train services and limited advertising opportunities on trains lead to cheap fares and innovative advertising solutions. The speaker shares an experience of finding incredibly cheap train tickets for his daughter and her friends, attributing the low prices to the assumption of no demand due to the trains' hidden nature. He also discusses the potential benefits of treating carbon reduction as a heuristic, even if the underlying reasoning is incorrect. Using examples from history, such as the miasma theory and the porcupine quills myth, the speaker argues that even if the reasoning behind an action is flawed, the action itself can still lead to positive outcomes. The innovative advertising solution he observed in Rome, where projectors are mounted onto the outside of trains to display ads on the inside walls, is a prime example of this principle. Overall, the speaker emphasizes the importance of finding solutions to problems, even if the reasoning behind them is not perfect.

The spread of beliefs, whether rooted in fact or fiction, can influence behavior in meaningful ways. Using the examples of porcupines and pork, it was once believed that porcupines could throw their quills and that pigs were unclean animals due to various reasons. These beliefs, though rooted in myth or cultural norms, encouraged certain behaviors that ultimately benefited individuals. For instance, the belief that porcupines could throw their quills necessitated a greater degree of caution around the animal, while the belief that pigs were unclean led to better food safety practices. Similarly, the belief that children would be attacked by bears if they stepped on cracks in the pavement may not be factually correct, but it encourages children to stay focused and avoid potential hazards. These heuristic behaviors, though rooted in myth or cultural norms, can ultimately lead to beneficial outcomes. The creation of socially beneficial customs, which eventually get formalized as laws, doesn't necessarily require reasoning but an empirical measurement of the benefit of following that belief.

The use of animals in advertising is an effective marketing strategy, as seen in campaigns like the Royal Society For the Prevention of Accidents' Tufty the Squirrel and COI's weasel campaign. Animals grab our attention and can create an emotional connection with audiences, making the advertisement more memorable. This finding might seem simple, but it's a powerful tool in advertising that has been proven to work, as seen in iconic campaigns like John Webster's work with bears and dogs in the UK. Even in pop culture, like the Family Guy episode featuring Stewie and aluminum foil, animals can influence consumer choices. The reasons for this phenomenon could be rooted in the emotional connection we form with animals or cultural stereotypes, but the fact remains that animals in advertising get results.

The elements of unscripted improvisation and the iterative nature of comedy, as seen in shows like "Curb Your Enthusiasm" and "The Thick of It," contribute to their freshness and watchability. These shows, even when not being funny, remain engaging due to their authentic dialogue and the unpredictability of off-script performances. This concept of comedy being "execution dependent" was first noted by Douglas Adams and later by stand-up comedians, who experiment with their delivery to find what resonates with both the audience and themselves. The endings of comedic pieces and speeches also have a significant impact on their overall effect, making it crucial to craft a memorable and quotable conclusion. Additionally, there exists a category of technology that, while not self-explanatory, can be self-revelatory and transformative, such as electric cars, which, once experienced, leave a lasting impression and become essential.

Experiences and societal norms can significantly shape our preferences and expectations. For instance, the invention of cars led to a higher expectation for personal autonomy, making public transportation seem less desirable for many. Similarly, the herd mentality can influence opinions, such as the number of anti-vaxxers decreasing as more people get vaccinated. Regarding practical matters, the glass-sided toaster allows for better control over the toasting process, and having two dishwashers can make the dishwashing process more efficient by eliminating the need to empty one before loading the other. A lesser-known fact is that orthodox Jews require separate dishwashers to keep their crockery separate according to their religious dietary laws. Understanding these influences and practical applications can lead to improved experiences and greater efficiency in daily life.

There are various customs and traditions in different cultures and religions, such as the Jewish community, which involve following rules without necessarily knowing the reasons behind them. These rules serve as "chesterton fences" that act as both barriers and guidelines. For instance, the Jewish law against carrying keys on the Sabbath is an example of such a rule. Similarly, the practice of rapid burial of bodies in Islamic culture has positive hygiene effects. The concept of "chesterton fences" comes from G.K. Chesterton, who believed that these rules, though seemingly irrational, have underlying reasons and serve important purposes. The idea is that by obeying these rules without questioning their reasons, we can maintain social order and follow traditions that have proven benefits. The discussion also touched upon the historical practice of quarantining during the Crimean War and the origin of the term "quarantine," which comes from the Italian word "quaranta," meaning forty. This practice, which required people to isolate themselves for forty days, was based on the assumption that the incubation period of many diseases was around that length. Overall, the conversation highlighted the importance of understanding and respecting cultural practices and traditions, even if their reasons are not immediately clear.

While scientific data is crucial in guiding public health policies, it's essential to consider the behavioral components as well. Outdoor social events may seem safe from a scientific standpoint, but they can lead to indoor gatherings and potential super-spreading events. Regarding vaccines, the hesitancy among some people is complex, and factors like fear of needles play a significant role. Despite this, as more people get vaccinated, hesitancy decreases. It's important to approach vaccine communication with empathy and understanding, acknowledging that people's concerns are valid even if they may not align with our own views. Ultimately, effective communication relies on considering both the scientific and behavioral aspects of public health issues.

Fear and anxiety can significantly impact people's decisions, especially when it comes to health and safety measures like vaccinations. Some individuals may engage in motivated reasoning to avoid getting vaccinated due to their fear of needles. Offering them a quick and private vaccination session could help reduce their anxiety and encourage them to get vaccinated. This concept can be applied to other situations where fear is a barrier to action. For instance, in the medical field, students who are too squeamish to perform dissections may not be able to pursue a career in medicine. In marketing, turning a perceived negative into a positive feature can help overcome consumer hesitation. For example, the name "Cornish Cruncher" for a mature Cheddar brand effectively rebrands salt crystals as a desirable crunchy texture. Overall, understanding and addressing people's fears can lead to more effective communication, decision-making, and problem-solving.

The unexpected transformation of a byproduct into an essential attribute of a product can lead to remarkable outcomes. This concept is exemplified by the German kebab, which has become a significant industry in Germany due to its large Turkish population. The hyper-competitive kebab market offers fresh produce and world-class food at affordable prices, providing an alternative export industry for Germany amidst challenges in its auto industry. Additionally, our food choices and associations with certain types of cuisine can be influenced by societal norms and personal experiences. Furthermore, political polarization should not be solely based on allegiance, as moral character varies among individuals regardless of political beliefs.

The global population demographics are changing, with some countries having higher median ages due to factors like fewer children and later family formation. Japan, Monaco, and Germany are currently leading with the highest median ages. These trends could lead to interesting population dynamics over the next few decades. Additionally, most things in the world are either shrinking or growing at a decreasing rate, according to author Danny Dorling. The disappearance of large families in certain regions and the increase in domestic air travel in countries like China and India are notable examples of these trends. Overall, these demographic shifts could have significant implications for economies, societies, and the environment.

Coach travel, if marketed and improved, could potentially offer a more cost-effective and convenient alternative to traditional modes of long-distance travel like trains or flights. The speaker suggests that by offering modern coaches with better amenities, such as cabins, toilets, onboard entertainment, and even car transporters, coach travel could attract more customers and reduce the need for a European sleeper train network. However, coach travel has been stigmatized due to its association with budget-conscious travelers and a high propensity for drunken behavior. The speaker shares a personal experience of a train journey filled with drunken passengers, which he coped with by getting drunk himself. The authors of the book "Transport for Humans" argue that rethinking our approach to transport could lead to significant improvements in our daily lives. The book, which is available for pre-order, discusses this concept in more detail.

Despite not expecting it, my book has reached the number 4 spot in the transportation industry category on Amazon. This is a surprising achievement, especially considering that most books in this category are required reading for passing driving tests published by the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency. It's a humbling experience, and I'll cherish this fact for the rest of my life. However, I'm left puzzled by the sudden surge of "The Ghosts of Biggin Hill" by Bob Ogley, which ranks at number 29 in the same category. Despite being a local historian and frequent columnist, I can't understand why his book isn't ranking higher. It's a mystery that warrants further investigation. Overall, it's a reminder of the unpredictability of book sales and the importance of understanding the market dynamics.