Podcast Summary
The Arrival Fallacy: Believing Reaching a Goal Brings Everlasting Happiness: Believing reaching a goal brings everlasting happiness (arrival fallacy) can lead to disappointment and depression. Emotional connections to events, like sports tournaments, can intensify these feelings.
The intense emotions and significance we assign to certain events, such as a sports team winning a championship, can lead to feelings of depression or a "success hangover" once the initial excitement settles. This phenomenon, known as the arrival fallacy, is the false belief that reaching a desired goal will continue to bring happiness indefinitely. The discussion also touched upon the historical rivalries and unexpected outcomes in sports tournaments like UEFA Euro 2020. The fans' strong emotional connection to these events can make the disappointment felt after a loss even more profound. However, it's essential to remember that the actual impact on one's life may not be as significant as the feelings or expectations assigned to the event.
Mispredicting Future Emotions: People often misjudge future emotions, experiencing letdowns or uncertainty after achieving goals, but creating new anticipations and goals can help keep moving forward.
Humans have a tendency to mispredict how we will feel in the future, a concept known as affective forecasting. We often imagine upcoming events, like vacations or achievements, with great anticipation and positive feelings. However, Dan Gilbert's research shows that we are not very accurate in predicting the duration and intensity of these emotions. Even after reaching our goals, such as a successful vacation or a championship win, we may experience a letdown or uncertainty about what comes next. The key is to recognize that we can always create new anticipations and goals to keep moving forward. While some things, like writing a book or winning a championship, may have a limited renewability, we can still find joy in the journey and look forward to the next challenge or accomplishment.
The joy and pride of winning lasts longer than expected: Winning brings euphoria, identification, and lasting joy. Humans overestimate the duration of positive feelings, emphasizing the importance of savoring the moment.
The experience of winning a long-awaited title in sports, or any other arena, brings about a significant sense of euphoria and pride. This "basking in reflected glory" effect, as psychologist Robert Cialdini discovered, can lead to increased identification with the winning team and a desire to showcase that affiliation. Winning is seen as a reward for the investment of time, energy, and sometimes money, and the psychological dividends can last longer than anticipated. While there may be diminishing returns for repeated wins, the overall feeling of joy and pride is unlikely to disappear entirely. However, research suggests that humans are poor at predicting how long positive feelings will last, and we often overestimate their duration. This phenomenon, known as focalism, underscores the importance of savoring and appreciating the moment of victory.
Focusing on the positive can lead to neglecting the negative aspects or hassles, a phenomenon known as focalism.: It's natural to focus on the positive outcomes, but neglecting the challenges can lead to disappointment or regret later on.
Our focus on the positive outcomes, or what we imagine will make us happy, can lead us to neglect the inevitable negative aspects or hassles. This phenomenon, known as focalism, can be seen in various aspects of life, including sports fandom and even writing a book. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman calls this "what you see is all there is," and it can result in affective forecasting mistakes. While it's natural to focus on the positive, it's essential to consider the whole picture and not neglect the potential challenges or downsides. This failure to account for all the factors can lead to disappointment or even regret later on. So, next time you find yourself daydreaming about the joy of finishing a project or winning the Super Bowl, remember to also consider the hassles and challenges that come with it.
The Arrival Fallacy and the Disappointment of Success: The anticipation of success can bring more joy than the actual achievement, and it's essential to appreciate the journey towards the goal as much as the goal itself.
The experience of success and the anticipation of it can be two very different things. Steven and Angela discussed the concept of the "arrival fallacy," where people believe that achieving a goal will bring lasting happiness. However, many listeners shared stories of experiencing a "success hangover" or feeling a sense of disappointment after achieving a goal. These feelings can be a result of the anticipation and fantasy of the goal being of a different emotional flavor than the reality. Steven suggested that it might be better to deal with the slightly diminished ecstasy of achieving a goal than the continuing agony of not reaching it. However, Angela argued that the pleasure of getting closer to a goal can be a significant source of happiness. Ultimately, the emotion of success may change, but the journey towards it can be a fulfilling and worthwhile experience.
Embracing the journey towards accomplishment: The experience of accomplishment brings a deeper sense of satisfaction and self-perception, even if it doesn't come with immediate euphoria or elation. Measuring all outcomes, including challenges and unexpected connections, is essential to fully appreciate the journey towards growth.
The experience of accomplishment, even if it doesn't bring immediate euphoria or elation, can lead to a deeper sense of satisfaction and self-perception. The speaker shares his personal experience of shooting a career low in golf and feeling a sense of accomplishment instead of the expected euphoria. He also emphasizes the importance of measuring all outcomes, including potential challenges and unexpected connections, after an event. Regarding the end of COVID, the speaker suggests that there might be a period of adjustment and habituation to the new normal, rather than an immediate return to pre-pandemic happiness. He uses the analogy of achieving tenure in academia as a gradual process with subtle changes, which can be easily overlooked. Overall, the speaker encourages embracing the journey towards accomplishment and growth, even if it doesn't come with immediate fanfare.
Extraordinary experiences may lead to social isolation: Extraordinary experiences can bring joy but may also lead to feelings of exclusion during social interactions, making the ordinary exceptional in its own right. Balancing excitement and social connections is key.
Having extraordinary experiences, such as exceptional wines or vacations, can lead to negative social outcomes. According to a study, participants who had superior experiences felt left out and excluded during social interactions, despite predicting only the benefits beforehand. However, it's important to note that not all extraordinary experiences lead to social isolation. The key lies in how they are shared and perceived by others. Additionally, Steven suggested that having ordinary experiences, like winning a pennant or UEFA title, more frequently can help avoid the letdown of an extraordinary experience. It's a delicate balance between seeking excitement and maintaining social connections. In summary, while extraordinary experiences can be enjoyable, they may also lead to unintended negative consequences, making the ordinary exceptional in its own right.
British Military's Role in Popularizing World Sports: The British military has significantly contributed to the spread of popular sports from around the world, including the first Wimbledon tournament and the development of badminton in India. Psychologist Robert Cialdini's research on 'basking in reflected glory' was also discussed, with the correction that his seminal paper was published in 1976.
Members of the British military have played significant roles in popularizing sports originating from other parts of the world. The first Wimbledon tournament took place in 1877, three years after its inception, and its origins can be traced back to ancient Greece, China, Japan, and India. Similarly, the modern game of badminton, initially called Puna, was developed by British army officers stationed in India. Another interesting fact discussed in the podcast was the research conducted by psychologist Robert Cialdini on the phenomenon of "basking in reflected glory." Contrary to what was mentioned in the episode, Cialdini's seminal paper on this topic was published in 1976, not in the 1980s or early 1990s. The podcast also touched upon the global pandemic and the hope that things were returning to normal, although this was recorded before the recent surge in COVID cases. Angela shared a personal story about her near-death experience at Tiger Leaping Gorge in China, which listeners can hear in episode 49 of No Stupid Questions. Next week's episode of No Stupid Questions will explore why it's difficult to talk about money, despite it being just a form of currency. The Freakonomics Radio Network, which includes No Stupid Questions, is produced by Stitcher and Renbud Radio. Eleanor Osborne engineered the episode, and the theme song is "And She Was" by Talking Heads. If you have a question for a future episode, email it to nsq@freakonomics.com.
