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    #AIS: Antonio Garcia Martinez & Glenn Greenwald debate Ukraine, moderated by David Sacks

    enMay 25, 2022

    Podcast Summary

    • Observations on the Ukraine Refugee CrisisAntonio Garcia Martinez describes the stark contrast between the safety of Western Europe and the chaos on the Ukrainian side of the border, while Glenn Greenwald raises concerns about US involvement and its impact on international relations.

      The situation in Ukraine is complex and deserves more nuanced discussion. Antonio Garcia Martinez, who has firsthand experience in Ukraine, shared his observations of the refugee crisis and the displacement of millions of Ukrainians. He emphasized the stark contrast between the relative safety of the Western European side of the border and the chaos and danger on the Ukrainian side. Glenn Greenwald, on the other hand, raised concerns about US involvement in Ukraine and its potential implications for international relations. The debate highlighted the need for a more balanced and informed conversation about the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, as well as the importance of independent perspectives and firsthand accounts.

    • Complexity of the Ukrainian situation during early days of warDespite a humanitarian crisis, Ukrainian society was united and determined to repel foreign invaders, making Russian victory unlikely.

      The situation in Ukraine during the early days of the war was far more complex and determined by Ukrainian resolve than portrayed in US discourse. The author's firsthand experience in Eastern Poland and Western Ukraine revealed a massive humanitarian crisis, but also a society completely mobilized to repel the foreign invader. The size and population of Ukraine, compared to the Russian forces, made a Russian victory seem unlikely. The author was struck by the unity and determination of the Ukrainian people, who repeatedly expressed their confidence in victory. This contrasted with the portrayal of Ukraine in US discourse, which often focused on domestic American politics or comparisons to Iraq. The author's visit provided a unique perspective on the devastating reality of total war in Ukraine.

    • Recognizing diverse perspectives in global conflictsUnderstanding complexities of global conflicts requires acknowledging differing opinions within and beyond borders, and considering historical context to foster empathy, open-mindedness, and critical thinking.

      Understanding the complexities of global conflicts requires recognizing the diverse perspectives within a country and beyond its borders. For instance, during the Iraq War in 2003, opinions varied greatly among different regions of Iraq, just as they do in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While the United States and its allies may view the situation as a clear-cut case of victim and aggressor, much of the world holds differing opinions. It's essential to acknowledge these disparities and consider the historical context that shapes global perceptions. Furthermore, it's crucial to remember that wars, in general, bring about immense suffering and atrocities. The importance of empathy, open-mindedness, and critical thinking cannot be overstated when analyzing international conflicts.

    • The atrocities in the war in Ukraine are not unique to this conflictThe media coverage of Ukrainian victims should not create an imbalance in our perception of the war. We should question the motives and ability of the US to foster positive outcomes in complex conflicts like Yemen.

      While the atrocities in the war in Ukraine are undeniably horrific, they are not unique to this conflict. Wars initiated by the United States or its allies also result in immense suffering and atrocities. The constant media coverage of Ukrainian victims should not create an imbalance in our perception of the war. Instead, we should question the motives and ability of the United States to foster positive outcomes in complex conflicts, such as the ongoing war in Yemen. The debate should focus on the facts of the war in Ukraine, including the successes of the Ukrainian forces in the eastern front, rather than the reactions of other countries or polls.

    • Ukrainian conflict resonates deeply with Europeans due to shared historyEuropeans deeply affected by Ukrainian conflict due to shared history, US role complex, not a simple proxy war, US involvement questionable due to nuclear power involvement

      The Ukrainian conflict is resonating deeply with Europeans due to their shared history of total war and displacement, while Americans may view the situation through a different lens. The US's role in Ukraine is a complex issue, with some arguing that the US cannot act abroad in a legitimate way and that all global events are down to US actions. However, being in Ukraine, it seems chaotic and not under complete US control. While there is debate over the extent of US involvement, it's clear that the situation is not a simple proxy war, and the vital national interest for the US to be involved in such a conflict with a nuclear power is questionable.

    • Should US aim for more than expelling Russian forces from Ukraine?Caution urged against escalating US involvement in Ukraine conflict, drawing parallels to Cold War risks and inconsistent interventionist patterns.

      The discussion revolves around the question of whether the US should aim for more than just expelling Russian forces from Ukraine, and potentially even trying to topple Putin. The speakers express concerns about the potential risks of escalation, drawing parallels to the Cold War and nuclear brinkmanship. They argue that defining the conflict in Manichean terms and seeing it as a global struggle between autocracy and democracy could lead to a dangerous domino effect. It's important to note that no US president has declared a vital national interest in Ukraine. The speakers also highlight the inconsistency between the cheering in the room for US intervention and the fact that most populous countries refuse to support UN resolutions expelling Russia. This pattern of interventionism and the resulting international divide has been seen in past conflicts such as Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria.

    • Why Americans Regret US Involvement in WarsDespite initial enthusiasm, Americans often regret US involvement in wars due to disregard for other countries' perspectives and susceptibility to propaganda. The US should clarify core interests and exercise caution to avoid unnecessary conflicts.

      Despite the initial enthusiasm and belief in the positive intentions of American involvement in wars, a large majority of Americans later come to regret these decisions. This pattern of repeating mistakes, as illustrated by various examples, raises the question of why the US is so susceptible to propaganda and why it disregards the perspectives of other countries, especially when they have been victimized by US actions. Obama's stance on Ukraine, as revealed in a 2016 interview, and Burns' warning in 2008 are examples of this. Both Obama and Burns acknowledged that Ukraine is not a core American interest, but a vital one for Russia. Therefore, it's crucial for the US to be clear about its core interests and be cautious about entering into conflicts that may not serve its long-term strategic goals.

    • Evaluating UN Human Rights Council membership based on actions, not just wordsThe UN Human Rights Council membership should be assessed based on actual human rights records and actions, not just claims to moral superiority. The US, Russia, and other countries with significant human rights concerns have a place on the council.

      The UN Human Rights Council membership and the moral credibility of countries, including the United States, should be evaluated based on their actual human rights records and actions, not just on what other countries are doing. The United States, despite its claims to moral superiority, has a questionable human rights record with ongoing issues such as detaining individuals without trial at Guantanamo, destroying countries like Iraq, and imprisoning journalists like Julian Assange. Russia, with its own human rights issues, should not be the only country under scrutiny, as the United States and other countries with significant human rights concerns also have a place on the council. The recent decisions of Finland and Sweden to join NATO are not evidence of Russian aggression, but rather a response to historical threats and a desire for security. The complex geopolitical landscape requires a nuanced understanding of the motivations and actions of various countries.

    • Perception of US intentions in international conflicts: Benevolent or not?The complex situation in Ukraine highlights the need for defining limited objectives and avoiding existential threats to prevent potential nuclear war.

      The perception of US intentions in international conflicts, particularly in the context of Ukraine and its relationship with Russia, is a contentious issue. While some democracies believe the US has benevolent intentions, many others, including some democracies, hold a different view. They argue that the US often convinces its citizens of benevolent actions in wars, but the reality is different. The ideal outcome for the conflict, according to Antonio, is for the Ukrainians to decide their own future, respecting the principle of self-determination. However, the situation is complex, as the Russian population in Crimea strongly identifies with Russia and Russia has a naval base there. Defining objectives in a more limited way, avoiding existential threats, is crucial to prevent potential nuclear war. Ultimately, the outcome of the conflict will depend on the fortunes of war on the ground and the amount of aid provided to Ukraine.

    • Examining US motives in international conflictsThe US's involvement in international conflicts should be scrutinized beyond rhetoric, questioning authenticity of motives to understand true outcomes, considering impact on other countries.

      The US government's actions in international conflicts, such as providing weapons to Ukraine, should be scrutinized beyond the rhetoric presented. The authenticity of US motives should be questioned to understand the true outcomes of these conflicts. This is important because the US has a history of using propagandistic pretenses to justify its involvement in wars, as seen in past conflicts in Iraq and Vietnam. Additionally, the US should consider the impact of its actions on other countries, such as Yemen, where it has been providing significant military support despite calls for it to stop. Overall, it's crucial to critically examine the US's role in international conflicts and consider the potential consequences for all parties involved.

    • The Importance of the Global Liberal OrderThe global liberal order has shaped the world as we know it today and its value should be recognized and strengthened, not dismissed.

      The global liberal order is a crucial aspect of the world we live in, and its importance should not be underestimated. Those who criticize it or question its value often have limited exposure to its benefits. The debate surrounding its significance is a complex one, but it's clear that the global liberal order has played a vital role in shaping the world as we know it today. It's important to recognize its value and continue working towards strengthening it, rather than dismissing it as irrelevant or outdated. The metaphorical "sexual tension" mentioned in the discussion is a reminder of the potential energy and progress that can be unleashed when we come together to support and build upon the foundations of the global liberal order.

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    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG

    https://x.com/KariLake/status/1792986501820850333

    https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/apr/how-big-mac-index-relates-overall-consumer-inflation

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MCD:NYSE

    https://www.wsj.com/economy/gdp-and-the-dow-are-up-but-what-about-american-well-being-87f90e6d

    https://www.consumerreports.org/health/food-contaminants/the-plastic-chemicals-hiding-in-your-food-a7358224781

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2605.2007.00837.x

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12708228

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7559247

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21524797

    https://academic.oup.com/toxsci/advance-article/doi/10.1093/toxsci/kfae060/7673133

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6yuYkfNh-k

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYQjShJxCtM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_4jrMwvZ2A

    GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?

    GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?

    (0:00) Bestie Intros: Recapping Phil Hellmuth's birthday weekend

    (7:38) OpenAI launches GPT-4o: better, faster, cheaper

    (29:40) Sacks demos Glue: How AI unlocked his Slack killer

    (40:12) Friedberg walks through his major breakthrough at Ohalo

    (1:01:35) Stanley Druckenmiller bets on Argentina and Javier Milei: strategy, roadmap for the US

    (1:13:54) Jason's bet on Athena, how AI will change company building

    (1:22:21) Google launches AI summaries in search

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://www.pokernews.com/news/2024/05/phil-hellmuth-60th-birthday-bash-las-vegas-45984.htm

    https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1790130703721521305

    https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1790089513387143469

    https://crfm.stanford.edu/helm/mmlu/v1.3.0/#

    https://www.businessinsider.com/inflection-implosion-chatgpt-stall-ai-consumer-chatbot-problem-2024-3

    https://www.opencompute.org

    https://glue.ai

    https://ragie.ai

    https://ohalo.com

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/07/cnbc-exclusive-cnbc-transcript-billionaire-investor-stanley-druckenmiller-speaks-with-cnbcs-squawk-box-today.html

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2024/03/23/summers-inflation-reached-18-in-2022-using-the-governments-previous-formula

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1378034932006592512

    https://www.athenawow.com/jcal

    https://calacanis.substack.com/p/startup-productivity-in-the-age-of

    https://blog.google/products/search/generative-ai-google-search-may-2024

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEzRZ35urlk

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG

    https://startuptalky.com/apple-failed-products

    In conversation with Sam Altman

    In conversation with Sam Altman

    (0:00) Welcoming Sam Altman to the show!

    (2:28) What's next for OpenAI: GPT-5, open-source, reasoning, what an AI-powered iPhone competitor could look like, and more

    (21:56) How advanced agents will change the way we interface with apps

    (33:01) Fair use, creator rights, why OpenAI has stayed away from the music industry

    (42:02) AI regulation, UBI in a post-AI world

    (52:23) Sam breaks down how he was fired and re-hired, why he has no equity, dealmaking on behalf of OpenAI, and how he organizes the company

    (1:05:33) Post-interview recap

    (1:10:38) All-In Summit announcements, college protests

    (1:19:06) Signs of innovation dying at Apple: iPad ad, Buffett sells 100M+ shares, what's next?

    (1:29:41) Google unveils AlphaFold 3.0

    Follow Sam:

    https://twitter.com/sama

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://twitter.com/EconomyApp/status/1622029832099082241

    https://sacra.com/c/openai

    https://twitter.com/tim_cook/status/1787864325258162239

    https://openai.com/index/introducing-the-model-spec

    https://twitter.com/SabriSun_Miller/status/1788298123434938738

    https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/bill-of-rights-transcript

    https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1788312545754825091

    https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/warren-buffett-just-sold-more-than-100-million-shares-of-apple-reason-why-is-eye-opening.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snbTCWL6rxo

    https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20240506PD216/apple-ev-startup-genai.html

    https://www.theonion.com/fuck-everything-were-doing-five-blades-1819584036

    https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-deepmind-isomorphic-alphafold-3-ai-model

    In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained

    In conversation with Sheryl Sandberg, plus open-source AI gene editing explained

    (0:00) Welcoming Sheryl Sandberg and remembering Dave Goldberg

    (11:10) What led Sheryl to get involved with "Screams Before Silence"; reaction to sexual violence on and after 10/7

    (28:18) Paths forward, documentary decisions, involvement of women in protests

    (53:03) Post-interview debrief

    (59:45) Science Corner: Open-source AI gene editing with OpenCRISPR-1

    Follow Sheryl:

    https://twitter.com/sherylsandberg

    Watch Screams Before Silence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAr9oGSXgak&rco=1

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://twitter.com/fakechamath

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAr9oGSXgak&rco=1

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/20/opinions/sheryl-sandberg-something-we-can-all-agree-on/index.html

    https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/03/1147477

    https://thegrayzone.com/2024/03/07/media-concocts-un-hamas-rape-report/amp/

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/29/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-sexual-violence-un.html

    https://github.com/Profluent-AI/OpenCRISPR

    Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax

    Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax

    (0:00) Bestie Intros: Reservation Tips!

    (5:20) Meta goes scorched earth in AI, why the stock was down despite beating on earnings

    (22:20) Tesla's roadmap, ranking the company's highest-upside bets outside of cars for the next 10 years

    (47:25) FTC bans noncompetes: impact on startups and company formation

    (1:00:33) Besties reminisce on their encounters with Steve Jobs

    (1:10:25) TikTok "divest-or-ban" bill is signed into law: Will China comply? What's it worth without the algorithm? Will a deal get done?

    (1:27:22) Biden's proposed capital gains hikes and a 25% wealth tax for those with $100M+ in assets

    Follow the besties:

    https://twitter.com/chamath

    https://twitter.com/Jason

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

    https://twitter.com/friedberg

    Follow on X:

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod

    Follow on Instagram:

    https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

    Follow on TikTok:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@all_in_tok

    Follow on LinkedIn:

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

    Intro Music Credit:

    https://rb.gy/tppkzl

    https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

    Intro Video Credit:

    https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

    Referenced in the show:

    https://ai.meta.com/blog/meta-llama-3

    https://huggingface.co/meta-llama/Meta-Llama-3-8B

    https://about.fb.com/news/2024/04/introducing-our-open-mixed-reality-ecosystem

    https://about.fb.com/news/2024/04/meta-ai-assistant-built-with-llama-3

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/25/investing/meta-stock-plunges-ai-spending/index.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiMTRQXBol0

    https://twitter.com/AravSrinivas/status/1781099224169320500

    https://wow.groq.com/12-hours-later-groq-is-running-llama-3-instruct-8-70b-by-meta-ai-on-its-lpu-inference-enginge

    https://twitter.com/lauramaywendel/status/1782040453266710551

    https://twitter.com/naveengrao/status/1781491370114633816

    https://twitter.com/winglian/status/1783456379199484367

    https://www.meta.ai

    https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1780302197772952049

    https://electrek.co/2024/03/16/tesla-full-self-driving-beta-v12-finally-rolls-out

    https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-cuts-price-full-self-driving-software-by-third-8000-2024-04-21

    https://fortune.com/2024/04/15/elon-musk-tesla-cut-10-percent-global-workforce-14000-employees-slowing-ev-demand

    https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-take-shareholder-vote-shifting-incorporation-texas-musk-says-2024-02-01

    https://www.ft.com/content/46aac746-4a54-437f-a0b7-9b81b154c21d

    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TSLA:NASDAQ

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/24/tesla-stock-up-after-elon-musk-says-new-affordable-ev-models-coming.html

    https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux

    https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1776663647735218491

    https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA-Q1-2024-Update.pdf

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/25/gdp-q1-2024-increased-at-a-1point6percent-rate.html

    https://palmetto.com

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pja_n8ThDsU

    https://www.fastcompany.com/90972171/cruise-suspends-driverless-vehicle-operations-in-san-francisco-after-dmv-revokes-permit

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1777496946263134414

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/03/technology/cruise-general-motors-self-driving-cars.html

    https://thehill.com/business/4615452-ftc-votes-to-ban-non-compete-agreements

    https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2024/04/ftc-announces-rule-banning-noncompetes

    https://www.techemails.com/p/steve-jobs-emails-adobes-ceo

    https://venturebeat.com/business/how-steve-jobs-felt-betrayed-by-eric-schmidt-over-googles-android

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWOt9Cjq2mw

    https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/24/24139036/biden-signs-tiktok-ban-bill-divest-foreign-aid-package

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/senate-returns-95b-foreign-aid-package-ukraine-israel/story?id=109506150

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/06/tiktok-parent-bytedance-offers-share-buyback-at-268-billion-valuation.html

    https://www.theinformation.com/articles/bytedance-exploring-scenarios-for-selling-tiktok-without-algorithm?rc=pxkrxo

    https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/senate-reauthorizes-and-expands-section-702-surveillance

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1783220583075111401

    https://www.wsj.com/tech/tiktok-ban-chinese-owners-bytedance-1a857a06

    https://x.com/MsMelChen/status/1783524423963697262

    https://x.com/Jason/status/1783556155924705388

    https://x.com/Jason/status/1783604248569360516

    https://www.atr.org/biden-calls-for-44-6-capital-gains-tax-rate-highest-capital-gains-tax-since-its-creation-in-1922

    https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/131/General-Explanations-FY2025.pdf

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/tax-on-rich-to-save-social-security-popular-with-swing-state-voters-poll

    https://balajis.com/p/all-it-takes-is-all-you-got

    https://twitter.com/maceskridge/status/1783290784311058788

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