Podcast Summary
Understanding the 18-year property cycle for smart real estate investments: Stay informed about the 18-year property cycle to optimally time real estate investments, with potential growth from 2022 to 2024 and a wait period from 2024 to 2026.
The 18-year property cycle, a concept discussed by Rob and Rob in their podcast, suggests that the real estate market experiences growth and decline in cycles that last approximately 18 years. In the 2014 episode, they identified that they were around two years into a 14-year growth phase and recommended buying properties up to 2023 or 2024. They also suggested waiting out the "winner's curse" from 2024 to 2026 before making significant investments to maximize potential returns. Luke, a listener from London, called in to ask for an update on the current stage of the 18-year property cycle in 2022. The hosts acknowledged that they had discussed the topic the previous year but provided an updated perspective, emphasizing the importance of understanding the cycles to make informed investment decisions.
Predicting potential property market wobble and growth: Stay informed about property market cycles and be prepared for potential fluctuations to grow your portfolio.
The property market cycle, as discussed in a 2014 podcast, predicted a potential wobble in the UK market around 2017-2018, but also indicated that this could be a good time to fasten seatbelts for potential growth following the wobble. The hosts acknowledged that making predictions can be embarrassing with the passage of time, but their earlier predictions generally held true. The hosts plan to revisit their earlier comments and make new predictions, acknowledging the uncertainty and potential inaccuracies inherent in market predictions. For those looking to grow their property portfolio, staying informed about market cycles and being prepared for potential market fluctuations is key.
Property prices continued to rise despite negative sentiments from 2017 to 2020: Property prices continued to rise during the period of negative sentiments from 2017 to 2020, demonstrating the importance of not letting emotions influence investment decisions.
While there was a period of almost flat property price growth between 2017 and 2020, it was not the absolute classic wobble some might have assumed based on negative sentiments during that time. According to the land registry data, property prices actually started picking up nicely around 2013, continuing until 2017 with only a slight dip in late 2017 and early 2018. However, there was hardly any gain in prices from late 2017 to the start of 2020. Despite the negative sentiments during this period due to Brexit and other global events, property prices continued to rise. It's essential to remember that sentiments and reality can differ, and the current negative sentiments around the world due to COVID-19 and war should not deter potential investors, as property prices are still marching on.
Real Estate Market Cycle Continues Upward Trend: Expect property prices to rise in UK for next year or two, but be tactical and selective in buying properties
The current real estate market cycle, fueled by substantial quantitative easing, is continuing its upward trend, with property prices rising in various parts of the UK. This is not unexpected given the stage of the cycle, and the trend is expected to continue for the next year or two, barring any major global catastrophes. The podcast hosts express confidence in the current state of the cycle, which aligns with their predictions made in 2014. They encourage buying properties now and in the near future, but emphasize the importance of being tactical and selective as the cycle progresses and the market becomes more complex. The hosts plan to discuss this topic further on the podcast.
Staying invested during market downturns: Understanding the property cycle can help investors stay informed and avoid panic selling during market downturns
Understanding the property cycle and staying invested during negative narratives can lead to successful long-term investments. The speaker emphasizes that it's impossible to predict the future with certainty but shares how following the property cycle theory could have saved investors from panicking during market downturns in 2017 and 2020. While the future remains uncertain, the importance of staying informed and humble in investment decisions is emphasized. The Property Podcast will continue to report on market developments and provide insights for listeners.
