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    Biden Is Trying to Rein In Israel. Is It Working?

    enDecember 08, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Biden administration's stance on Israel's conduct shiftsInitially supportive, administration now expresses concern over Israeli civilian casualties and potential damage to international relations

      The Biden administration's public stance towards Israel's conduct during its war against Hamas has shifted significantly over the past few weeks. Initially, there was unwavering support for Israel following the October 7th attacks. However, as civilian casualties mounted and images of suffering in Gaza became increasingly distressing, the administration's tone changed. Officials like the vice president, secretary of state, and secretary of defense issued sharper warnings to Israel about its responsibility to minimize harm to civilians and expressed concern over the negative impact on both Israel and the US globally. This shift represents growing skepticism and frustration over the high number of civilian casualties and the potential harm to international relations.

    • Joe Biden's deep-rooted connection to IsraelBiden's support for Israel stems from childhood discussions about the Holocaust and a close relationship with Golda Meir, shaping his perspective and making him a consistent supporter.

      Joe Biden's connection to Israel and his unwavering support for the country stems from his upbringing and personal experiences. Growing up, he was influenced by his father's discussions about the Holocaust and America's role in preventing it. During his time in the Senate, he formed a close relationship with Golda Meir, the Prime Minister of Israel at the time. These experiences shaped Biden's perspective and have made him a strong supporter of Israel, even among Democrats who may hold different views. His emotional response to the terror attacks in Israel and his literal and figurative hugs to the Israeli people demonstrate his deep-rooted connection to the country. It's important to remember that Biden's stance on Israel is a reflection of his past and is not a new development. However, he also urges caution against making hasty decisions in response to tragedy, as he learned from the aftermath of 9/11.

    • Balancing public support and private diplomacy during crisesPresident Biden's approach to the Israel-Palestine crisis involved a 'bear hug' strategy, combining public support with private pressure through communication and questioning, to build trust and offer advice while avoiding excessive force and negative consequences.

      During times of conflict, leaders must carefully consider the costs of their actions and respond with deliberation, not excess. This was evident in President Biden's approach to the Israel-Palestine crisis, where he publicly supported Israel while privately urging caution. Biden's strategy involved a "bear hug" approach, combining public support with private pressure through Socratic questioning and constant communication. This approach aimed to build trust and credibility, allowing Biden to offer advice and steer Israel towards a more measured response. The goal was to avoid the negative consequences of excessive force, both in terms of civilian lives and international reputation. The president's approach demonstrates the importance of balancing public support with private diplomacy during times of crisis.

    • US Prevented Israel-Palestine Conflict from EscalatingThe Biden administration prevented the Israel-Palestine conflict from escalating into a larger regional war by threatening military action against Hezbollah, urging caution, and allowing humanitarian aid into Gaza.

      During the 2021 Israel-Palestine conflict, the Biden administration prioritized preventing the war from expanding beyond Gaza and escalating into a larger regional conflict. To achieve this, the US threatened military action against Hezbollah in Lebanon if Israel attacked, urging caution and consideration of civilian safety before launching a ground war in Gaza. The administration also pushed Israel to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza and sent a general to advise on urban warfare experiences. These efforts largely succeeded in keeping the conflict contained, demonstrating the US's significant influence behind the scenes.

    • Israel-Hamas conflict: Civilian casualties and diplomatic riftThe Israel-Hamas conflict has resulted in civilian casualties, causing frustration for the Biden administration. Differences over post-conflict governance of Gaza and public defiance from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu have widened the rift between the two countries.

      The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has led to significant civilian casualties, causing frustration for the Biden administration. Despite pushing for more humanitarian aid and a more surgical approach to targeting Hamas, the high number of civilian deaths due to Israeli airstrikes has been a major source of concern. This issue not only has emotional resonance but also international and domestic implications, potentially costing Israel support and causing outrage among Democrats. Another point of contention is the post-conflict governance of Gaza, with the Biden administration favoring the Palestinian Authority taking over, while Israel prefers maintaining control through the IDF. These differences have led to public defiance from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, creating a significant rift between the two countries.

    • Biden administration's influence over Israel-Hamas conflictDuring the 2021 Israel-Hamas conflict, the Biden administration publicly criticized Israel's tactics and increased pressure to change their approach, as private messaging was ineffective.

      During the 2021 Israel-Hamas conflict, the Biden administration faced limitations in its influence over the situation. Despite managing to broker a hostage deal leading to a temporary ceasefire, the resumption of fighting saw a shift in the administration's public rhetoric towards Israel. Senior officials publicly criticized Israel's tactics and increased pressure, indicating that private messaging was not effective. This change in tone reflected the assumption that the Israelis were no longer heeding private communications. By going public, the administration aimed to reinforce its message and push for a different approach to the conflict. However, the ceasefire ultimately broke down, and the war resumed at its previous intensity.

    • US balancing support for Israel and limiting civilian deathsThe Biden administration faces a paradox in supporting Israel's objective of defeating Hamas while limiting civilian deaths, as the US's relationship with Israel adds complexity to the situation.

      The Biden administration has significant influence over Israel during the ongoing conflict with Hamas, but it's a delicate balance for the administration to maintain. The US is Israel's main military supplier, and the administration could condition arm supplies to Israel with demands for reducing civilian deaths. However, the Biden administration hasn't publicly done so, and some Democrats in Congress are pushing for such conditions. The administration's goals of supporting Israel's objective of defeating Hamas while limiting civilian deaths seem incompatible at the moment, creating a paradox. The US's unique relationship with Israel as a partner and mentor adds to the complexity of the situation. The administration walks a fine line, not wanting to undercut Israel while also expressing concern over the excessive civilian casualties.

    • Maintaining US-Israel relationship despite conflictPresident Biden prioritizes US-Israel relationship, but ongoing conflict in Gaza and potential consequences may lead to increased pressure for intervention

      President Biden believes it's more beneficial for the US to maintain a relationship with Israel and exert influence, even if it's not always effective, rather than applying heavy pressure that could lead to alienation and loss of influence. However, the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the increasing civilian deaths could potentially change Biden's calculations, leading him to take a harder stance against Israel despite the potential consequences for the US-Israel relationship. Analysts predict this situation may last for 4 to 6 weeks, but recent Israeli military successes against Hamas could influence this timeline. The US and Israel disagree on the metric for success in the conflict, with Israel focusing on the number of Hamas leaders and commanders killed. The US does agree that Israel's recent military actions have been successful, but the ultimate goal is not just a numbers game. The situation remains complex, and the pressure on Biden to intervene more aggressively continues to grow.

    • Biden's personal and strategic considerations influence his approach to Israel-Hamas conflictBiden walks a tightrope, publicly supporting Israel while keeping options open for future actions, influenced by both personal and strategic considerations.

      President Biden's personal stance towards Israel and his strategic considerations are influencing his approach to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. While his administration officials have signaled a desire for Israel to wind down the most intense phase of the war, Biden himself has remained publicly supportive of Israel and has not echoed these sentiments. This approach allows Biden to keep his options open and maintain the power of his public statements when he eventually decides to address the issue. The personal and strategic considerations are intertwined in Biden's stance, and this dynamic could change as the situation evolves. Additionally, the conflict raised concerns over Hamas using humanitarian safe zones as a base for rocket attacks, but the evidence and Hamas' response were not immediately available.

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