Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez sits down with Phil Adler to discuss Great Power competition and the economics of national defense. In the absence of Great Power competition, defense spending is usually concentrated on defense companies. However, under conditions of Great Power competition, a “whole-of-economy” approach to national defense tends to evolve. Civilian companies become more involved in the defense effort, and societies need to make the “guns and butter” tradeoffs. Patrick and Phil discuss how the current iteration of national defense spending will likely be different than what was seen during the Cold War.
Could the defense industry, at some point, challenge technology for stock market leadership? Members from the Confluence macro team discuss why the rebirth of US nuclear deterrence policy appears to be a game changer on many levels.
In October 2023, the Asset Allocation Committee introduced an ETF focused on uranium and uranium producers into its mid-cap equity exposure as part of their regular quarterly update. The price of that ETF has surged since Confluence bought it, adding to the returns of the firm's Asset Allocation portfolios to date. Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to explain what drove Confluence to make this new investment and what they expect from it in the future.
China's economic problems seem to be numerous. They include falling consumer prices, a struggling stock market, plunging property values, sluggish growth, and rising debt. Is current Chinese leadership to blame for these problems, or is it something deeper? Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss why addressing this question is important.
The rising federal budget deficit begs a key question with major implications for investors. How painful will it be for the government to finance all that debt or will there be enough buyers of all those new US Treasurys to prevent an ugly turn for the markets? Confluence Investment Management Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss how fixed income investors might navigate this changing environment.
In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast for this recap is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee.
As the US slowly withdraws from its status as the world's policeman and as countries realign into separate economic and political blocs, both the strategies and the costs of preventing war change. As the task of preventing war becomes more difficult, the risks change as well. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez and Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth join Phil Adler to discuss these important trends and what the implications will be for investors
It may come as a bit of a surprise that oil production in the U.S. has reached a record high. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss the reasons for this surge in production and the impact on prices and investments.
The creation of the U.S. Space Force in 2019 did not come out of the blue but recognized a new reality. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to argue that investors should pay attention.
A sometimes overlooked financial report may give us insight about the timing of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain.
The war in Ukraine seems to have entered a new phase. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss what investors might do to prepare for a range of possible outcomes.
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