Confluence Podcasts

Could the defense industry, at some point, challenge technology for stock market leadership? Members from the Confluence macro team discuss why the rebirth of US nuclear deterrence policy appears to be a game changer on many levels.

In October 2023, the Asset Allocation Committee introduced an ETF focused on uranium and uranium producers into its mid-cap equity exposure as part of their regular quarterly update. The price of that ETF has surged since Confluence bought it, adding to the returns of the firm's Asset Allocation portfolios to date. Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to explain what drove Confluence to make this new investment and what they expect from it in the future.

China's economic problems seem to be numerous. They include falling consumer prices, a struggling stock market, plunging property values, sluggish growth, and rising debt. Is current Chinese leadership to blame for these problems, or is it something deeper? Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss why addressing this question is important.

The rising federal budget deficit begs a key question with major implications for investors. How painful will it be for the government to finance all that debt or will there be enough buyers of all those new US Treasurys to prevent an ugly turn for the markets? Confluence Investment Management Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss how fixed income investors might navigate this changing environment.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast for this recap is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee.

As the US slowly withdraws from its status as the world's policeman and as countries realign into separate economic and political blocs, both the strategies and the costs of preventing war change. As the task of preventing war becomes more difficult, the risks change as well. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez and Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth join Phil Adler to discuss these important trends and what the implications will be for investors

It may come as a bit of a surprise that oil production in the U.S. has reached a record high. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss the reasons for this surge in production and the impact on prices and investments.

The creation of the U.S. Space Force in 2019 did not come out of the blue but recognized a new reality. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to argue that investors should pay attention.

A sometimes overlooked financial report may give us insight about the timing of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.  Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain.

The war in Ukraine seems to have entered a new phase. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss what investors might do to prepare for a range of possible outcomes.

Confluence's official 2024 Outlook anticipates a slowing U.S. economy and continued risk of recession. As the title of the report indicates, economic activity with slowing momentum is more susceptible to a negative shock. The co-authors of the report, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez and Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash, join the podcast to examine the main themes of their expectations and how investors can utilize an outlook piece such as this to review the big picture: where they've been, what the new year has in store, and how they might prepare for it.

Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez sit down with Phil Adler to assess the geopolitical outlook for 2024. The first issue discussed is titled “the jungle grows back,” which could also be considered the overall theme of the report. As U.S. hegemony wanes, long-forgotten conflicts are reigniting, thus increasing global turmoil and forcing the U.S. to manage multiple fronts. The discussion also touches on the spate of elections next year, including the U.S. elections in November. Finally, Bill and Patrick examine China-U.S. tensions and the continued evolution of the two major global blocs, and provide commentary on the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflict in the Middle East.

For stock investors, the initial rally was impressive, but does the Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause interest rate hikes signal the market's advance has room to grow further? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us today to tell us the answer is a bit complicated.

With the latest quarterly earnings reports now in the books, now might be a good time to step back and look at earnings from a different angle as we try to anticipate future stock market performance. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady has been doing just that and joins us today to discuss a chart that might help us.

Our government's foreign policy can seriously impact our investment accounts, but because these policy decisions often involve difficult and  immediate trade-offs, it can be challenging for us as investors to recognize and take advantage of long-term trends. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us today to offer a framework that can guide us.

The annual Social Security cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2024 was announced in October and Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins us today to discuss the potential impact of this 3.2% hike on spending, the economy, and the federal deficit.

The conflict in the Middle East has plenty of investment implications. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins us today to discuss how the current fighting might play out and what it means for the markets.

Widely accepted rules that have for many years defined the behavior of long-term bonds might be changing. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us today to suggest why savvy investors might want to revisit some of these time-worn formulas.

As investors, we can sometimes be sidetracked by news events that seem huge at the time they happen. Many times we can make wiser decisions by stepping back to survey the bigger picture. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins us today to help us do just that.

Financial markets can be extremely sensitive to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Perhaps not so much what the Fed has done, but what it might do. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us today to discuss how the changing composition of the Fed's Open Market Committee which votes on monetary policy may offer some clues about its future actions.